Daily Briefing – September 22, 2020

Published on
September 22nd, 2020
Duration
30 minutes


Daily Briefing – September 22, 2020

Daily Briefing ·
Featuring Haley Draznin, Ash Bennington, and Tony Greer

Published on: September 22nd, 2020 • Duration: 30 minutes

Senior editor, Ash Bennington, welcomes back Tony Greer, editor of the Morning Navigator, to discuss the ongoing inflation trade. Tony expounds on his bullish posture toward oil and some of the technical indicators he uses to analyze different securities. He also reviews some of the current policy stances that emerged from last week's FOMC meeting, explaining how he leverages these policy shifts to seek out price inflation across different asset classes. Real Vision reporter Haley Draznin monitors the continued volatility in the markets and addresses the potential risks investors are paying close attention to in the coming weeks including another stimulus relief bill out of Congress, a new spending bill, and surging coronavirus cases in the U.S. and abroad.

Comments

Transcript

  • FL
    Fabrizio L.
    23 September 2020 @ 06:58
    Tony If you are excited about fossil fuel, you have really missed the point mate! and i`m sorry that you need money so bad that you are willing to buy fossil fuel stocks, give them a miss, be smart... please understand the difference between making money trading assets of companies that promote a sustainable life on the planet vis a vis deployng capital in those businesses that destroy our planet... do you have kids? wtf!!!
    • SS
      Sam S.
      23 September 2020 @ 08:13
      Be very excited (long term) for downstream industries that can make good use of cheap and plentiful natural gas... free byproduct of shale drilling 😁. And as always, be very excited for mid-streamers (e.g. pipelines / distributors), the well-managed ones will continue to be cash-cows for decades to come.
    • GH
      Guy H.
      23 September 2020 @ 10:46
      I really think RV is missing a trick not focusing on climate economics like it does crypto or retirement. Musk and his socially awk Tesla engineering geek squad set off a battery tech and manufacturing arms race yesterday. Dirty energy is going to get run over in a stampede - sometime in the second half of this decade is my sense. Or we're toast.
    • NK
      Norman K.
      23 September 2020 @ 12:28
      Bravo Fabrizio! Yes, this interview is a disgrace as literally tens of millions of people in the US and around the world are suffering the effects of unprecedented forest fires caused by runaway climate change. The Real Vision platform urgently needs to called out for its continued promotion of the climate killing trade in fossil fuel companies. It will be seen historically by future generations as akin to profitting off the Holocaust.
    • CD
      Colin D.
      23 September 2020 @ 15:44
      He is just giving trading ideas - no one is obliged to pursue them. If he is wrong the he (and any followers will lose money) Their losses will inevitably be someone else's gains. Everyone leaving the sector needs someone to sell to after all! I would be very interested to know which investable companies you regard as promoting sustainable life on the planet.
    • CC
      Christopher C.
      24 September 2020 @ 01:42
      I love how people think that buying a Tesla is going to stop droughts from hitting the Western United States from time to time. They've been happening for thousands of years. There was a 200 year megadrought in California just 1000 years ago. You think some rare earth strip mines are going to magically stop that from happening when natural oceanic cycles deem it so?
    • DH
      Damian H. | Founder
      24 September 2020 @ 16:48
      Hey Fabrizio Argue the points... Debate the themes... Be as passionate as you want... But please leave references to our guest's kids out of it I know what you are trying to say - but let's keep them out of it Thanks Damian
  • NK
    Norman K.
    23 September 2020 @ 12:22
    This interview with this heinous jackal salivating over making money from trading big fossil fuel stocks while abrupt, runaway climate change is literally burning down the forests of the planet right now on a record scale never before seen in modern human history is an obscenity. Literally millions of people in this country in the Western United States are reeling from the savage disruption to their lives by fires that fossil fuel companies methodically prepared the dry timber for with their decades of CO2 emissions after it was known and proven that their product's "externalities" was causing rising air and now rising ocean temperatures and incredibly Real Vision produced this interview at this time?! I urge the subscribers of Real Vision to demand that it re-evaluate its mission, its editorial content and demand it take a stand with 97% of climate scientists and the growing groundswell of public opinion calling for real, meaningful remedies to arrest the climate crisis and stop promoting the very companies and individuals like this "trader" who are hurtling the human species towards it own extinction.
    • SL
      Sean L.
      23 September 2020 @ 13:28
      Have you stopped driving yet?
    • NF
      Neal F.
      23 September 2020 @ 14:13
      Spot on. XOM doing it again just like did 25O million years ago when the sea over North America dried up leaving giant mollusk shells in the Kansas chalk. Do dare they do it again.
    • JC
      John C.
      23 September 2020 @ 16:18
      Moderator how do we report Norman K?
    • JC
      John C.
      23 September 2020 @ 16:27
      Attacks on presenters ("heinous jackal" - really?) are uncalled for and Norman K. should be suspended for this sort of attack as well as his garbage 'climate change' analysis (or rather lack thereof). He is adding zero value and only bringing the horrible "Fintwit" style of personal attacks in lieu of real arguments to the comments section. Slipper slop that I think RV needs to tackle immediately with this sort of irresponsibly rube and mean-spirited 'comment.' Everyone on this site is fully aware of the climate change arguments on all sides anyway.
    • JA
      John A.
      23 September 2020 @ 16:40
      I don't think you have considered that an abrupt end to fossil fuels is not possible with current technology. At best, we could reduce usage with a return to Nuclear energy. Maybe when fusion is figured out we will have something, but that is probably 30 years away from being commercially viable. Your politics cloud you from seeing the truth for what it is. Even if America stopped using oil today, who is going to get China, India, Russia Europe, Australia, South America, and Africa to follow suit? The best we can hope for is a slow reduction in oil usage over the next 50 years. It isn't going away tomorrow unless we are cool with going back to the 1800's. If you feel that strongly, I urge YOU to get off the internet, off the power grid, off the highways, and start hunting for your own food. Show us how it is done, great crusader.
    • RT
      Rupert T.
      23 September 2020 @ 20:59
      Climate change is nothing but Marxist nonsense - google for Taupo in New Zealand - when that sucker popped the last ice age started. Google for Krakatoa - when that sucker popped in Indonesia - there was a decade of failed crops and cold weather. It's no big deal if it gets a bit warmer - it's a huge deal if we have a small meteor or large volcano and 10 years of cold - and that's before you get into solar fluctuations - google for Maunder Minimum - frozen rivers all over Europe etc. in recent history - ever wonder why all those famous painters had such cold icy scenes ? - and other solar system factors we know absolutely nothing about. There were crocodiles in Sweden in recent geological history and ice sheets down to London. When the ice melted there was so much of it, weighing on the earth's crust that the land mass actually rose up and all over the UK are "raised sea beaches" where the coast line used to be like 100m higher than it is now, due to the weight being lifted off the land mass and it rising up - not quite what you'd expect when all the ice melted is it now ! Sciencists know so little and instead of harping on a marxist agenda, they should be worrying about how to stop the oceans being filled with heavy metals and plastic and ruining 50% of the protein supply - that's a real problem - but somehow the climate change fanatics never talk about pollution and eco-system preservation because it doesn't suit their twisted agenda. Energy saving light bulbs that cost 10 times the price were forced through by corporations - in cahoots with Govt and now we have these shitty neon lights everywhere - that's not ecological preservation - that's fascism.
    • JP
      John P.
      24 September 2020 @ 02:03
      Welcome to realvision. I don't think this platform is for you.
    • TG
      Tony G. | Contributor
      24 September 2020 @ 13:38
      You mad bro? What a punk. I could care less if he stays or leaves the platform. Keep him here so we can beat on him.
    • DH
      Damian H. | Founder
      24 September 2020 @ 16:42
      Norman - I'm sorry but you simply cannot call someone a "heinous jackal" on this platform. You can argue the points and debate the issues - in fact we actively love and encourage that - but PERSONAL ATTACKS NOT ACCEPTABLE ON THIS PLATFORM. Please refrain from this kind of behaviour no matter how passionate you feel about the issues. Thank you Damian
  • MS
    Mark S.
    23 September 2020 @ 02:53
    Curious to know what would it take for tony to see to change his tune on the inflation narrative
    • TG
      Tony G. | Contributor
      24 September 2020 @ 13:42
      a turnaround in commodities would do it as would NEVER seeing CPI go above 2% ...if that's fair for in here?
  • MF
    M F.
    23 September 2020 @ 02:56
    This is what the DB should be about. The day and at most the week's outlook, drivers, and movers. Tony is very well suited for this, adding excellent insight, based on years of experience, in a punchy, actionable way. Save the longer-term, bigger picture analysis for other thought pieces...Daily Brief..at least on Tuesdays with Tony is a great overview of what is moving, rotating, what are the salient things to focus on, and where he puts his neck out with specific ideas in the here and now. Well done Tony, again, and pls keep the Daily Brief relevant to the specifics of the day or week and put the longer-term ideas for other areas of RV. Thanks RV for great content, as ever.
    • TG
      Tony G. | Contributor
      24 September 2020 @ 13:41
      Thank you for posting this and respecting the fact that this is a daily briefing so its supposed to discuss what's moving and what went on. I really appreciate this M.F.
  • MA
    Mike A.
    23 September 2020 @ 12:24
    If the FED really wanted inflation to run hot they would stop Q.E because QE is deflationary by design. After trillions in stimulus and still no sign of widespread inflation anywhere what makes anyone possibly think it will just simply appear in the middle of a global pandemic is baffling to me. The FED's mandate is to kill inflation not to create it especially with the uncertainty of an upcoming election.I don't see the lending standards in the banks will want to loosen any meaningful way given now an ongoing scandal. Preserve capitol at all costs will be their credo..
    • TG
      Tony G. | Contributor
      24 September 2020 @ 13:37
      fair point we haven't seen it yet but some of us think that's going to change.
  • DR
    Derrick R.
    23 September 2020 @ 12:55
    Hey TG, my idea on energy stocks is they are beat down right now respective to oil price because of the election and potential for policy shift. I would be looking for that big bounce to occur on a re-election of the incumbent president. What do you think?
    • TG
      Tony G. | Contributor
      24 September 2020 @ 13:36
      I discuss every market thought I have in my daily newsletter Derrick - I'm here to help.
  • DM
    Don M.
    23 September 2020 @ 18:29
    I get it. Tony is driven in large part by politics. Follow him on twitter. As such the fact he's totally called energy wrong (see his last couple DBs) is because of the "shut down". But energy stocks have been falling since fourth quarter 2018. Then he goes on to blame Obama about banks falling in 2011? Maybe he should take note that the economy was falling as were all stocks. Easier to blame on Obama. Tony makes me laugh. He's obviously getting frustrated. Odd because with that top notch technical analysis (use the 50, 100 and 200 day moving average and trends) you'd think he would know energy began falling long before Covid.
    • TG
      Tony G. | Contributor
      24 September 2020 @ 13:36
      LOL Don there's so much crying about a daily briefing in this post I can't take it LMAO
  • SE
    Seth E.
    23 September 2020 @ 04:01
    Please keep TG in the rotation. I enjoy the broad scope provided by the majority of the RV team, but Tony’s ideas are more actionable for me & well, he’s just entertaining. TG should challenge Portnoy to a monthly gain competition or something. Somebody make that happen, please.
    • SL
      Sean L.
      23 September 2020 @ 13:32
      He's also the most entertaining... Can't get enough of TG Tuesdays.
    • MM
      Melvyn M.
      24 September 2020 @ 08:19
      Absolutely! I regard TG as a pillar of real vision, and a balanced perspective. that’s not to say I agree with everything he says but if I did, I’d be worried as it’s easy to fill ones feed with like mindedness.
  • ji
    jayanth i.
    23 September 2020 @ 05:14
    Not sure if Ash picked up on the Breaking Bad quote hahhaha, great interview though.
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      23 September 2020 @ 07:11
      I did. I was just trying to keep a straight face...
    • MD
      Matt D.
      24 September 2020 @ 06:29
      Better call Saul...
  • JP
    John P.
    24 September 2020 @ 02:06
    Reading these comments........... woah is it time to get long oil?
  • GP
    Geoff P.
    23 September 2020 @ 01:02
    The permabull moniker typically fits Greer. The TICK index... really? Really a super short term coincident indicator if anything. BTFD is all he jabbered out there. This is a market structure driven rally/selloff market etc. With an underpinning of a massive recession, but that apparently doesn't at this point. A conversation about derivatives, GEX, Vanna, DIX etc is much more helpful. I'm actually in the short term bounce camp, but that's beside the point.
    • DM
      Don M.
      23 September 2020 @ 18:32
      Agree. Really pedestrian technical analysis. If RV wants tech Tuesday at least spread it around a bit. 50, 100 and 200 DMA? ROFLMA
  • JA
    John A.
    23 September 2020 @ 16:52
    Disagree with Tony on Tech right now, but he is sensible about Oil. It isn't a trade, but we are about as low as they can go without companies having to shut down. That tends to create the bottom over time.
  • TC
    Timothy C.
    23 September 2020 @ 00:33
    I love the Tony Tuesday briefing. There is no way the Fed raises rates. They are going to let inflation run and purchasing power diminish, especially with where the treasury maturity distribution sits. The only question is how big the balance sheet ends up being due to YCC, although the Fed could roll off MBS and chew up TSYs for quite - assuming their MBS isn't already drying up on its own...
    • SL
      Sean L.
      23 September 2020 @ 13:39
      If you follow the arguments of guys like steven van metre and Brent Johnson, there are pretty solid arguments that the Fed can't induce inflation... they can only facilitate it by accommodating massive fiscal. Tony acknowledges he 'isn't smart enough to overrule the fed'... good to get his honest opinion in any case. Obviously he's not right about everything but you're getting a window into a brilliant short term trader's mind. Enjoy the show and fit the info into your own framework.
  • KV
    Konstantinos V.
    23 September 2020 @ 01:12
    As much as I appreciate the energy Tony brings, I don't see a weekly call necessary here.
    • SL
      Sean L.
      23 September 2020 @ 13:34
      RV we need .gifs for these terrible takes
  • LK
    Lance K.
    23 September 2020 @ 11:40
    Her uptalk makes her unlistenable.
  • VM
    Veliko M.
    23 September 2020 @ 04:43
    Love Tony's way of looking at the world. Such a fresh perspective in a sea of doom.
    • LB
      Lukas B.
      23 September 2020 @ 10:35
      "fresh perspective?" is this satire?
  • RT
    Rupert T.
    22 September 2020 @ 22:34
    no follow through = slope of hope, nice bounce to get the suckers in. it's not as simple as he'd like to make out - very dangerous to listen to a guy talk his book.
    • CT
      Chris T.
      23 September 2020 @ 08:25
      lower highs, lower lows pattern still at work even with +1% bounces.
  • PB
    Pieter B.
    23 September 2020 @ 06:07
    Really good again! Thank you!
  • JS
    Jon S.
    23 September 2020 @ 01:13
    Tony is do technichally perma bullish biased. I wonder when he will be bearish.
    • AB
      Alastair B.
      23 September 2020 @ 03:55
      It doesn’t matter. When everyone else on Realvision is pretty bearish, we need both sides.
    • JS
      Jon S.
      23 September 2020 @ 05:46
      Yes, I like it. I asked previously to bring Tony weekly on this forum and directly to Milton. His technical view point is of a great help to grasp what technical traders are looking at. Then, each needs to decide which side to take bull or bear. My comments was related to the fact that technically it is bullish and so Tony is. Technically it was bearing only one time this year below 2825 approximately (back in March)... We will see what Tony says next week. I am very happy that Monday is fundamentals, Tuesday Technichals (Wednesday / Thursday) fundamentals with Ed or Roger and Friday the unique and symbol of RV: Raoul Pal.
  • DS
    David S.
    23 September 2020 @ 04:46
    I like Mr. Greer's traders perspective. Keep up the good work. DLS
  • SH
    Sahil H.
    23 September 2020 @ 02:04
    Great update. I like these shorter time horizon updates. Really compliments the longer time horizon macro content on the channel. Keep it up!
  • RG
    Ryan G.
    23 September 2020 @ 00:30
    A bit of a perma bull from what Iv seen. Was short term bullish the week before this recent pullback. I enjoy hearing Tony's thoughts because he is on the other side of my mine. Good daily briefing. HAS THE BOND MARKET FINALLY TURNED? Trade Ideas · Featuring Tony Greer
  • LP
    Leonard P.
    22 September 2020 @ 23:53
    Great analysis as always. I think Tony mentioned the cannabis industry (specifically he referenced ACB, which took a turn for the worst afterhours following earnings). If possible, kindly provide any further colour on the industry in general from a technical perspective (over whatever timeframe), thanks!
  • BA
    Bob A.
    22 September 2020 @ 23:38
    I come from the framework that the "recession/worse" likely has 6-12 months left in it and energy doesn't look like a buy sooner unless we get some serious commodity inflation. This will likely be an epic opportunity, but just not yet. I think it is also important to consider that there are scores of energy exploration, servicing. and other related companies in bankruptcy so when the opportunity presents itself sift carefully.
  • DS
    David S.
    22 September 2020 @ 23:27
    I'm startin' to understand why Cosmo Kramer reacted the way he did when ET came on the tube...just sayin'
  • RT
    Rupert T.
    22 September 2020 @ 23:24
    a bit misinformed to say Crude Oil at $40 is production cost - maybe for fracking wells that are costly to run but a quick glance at a 20 year oil chart tells you a very different story and with airlines struggling and hardly anyone commuting take about 10% of oil demand out - and considering we hit $26 in 2015-16 before OPEC panicked to support the price - and considering the actual cost of running an oil well is very very little once it's drilled - the stuff can go to $10 a barrel - if that's all the market will pay - an understand of the dynamics of oil production costing zero - verses oil exploration costs bucketloads - and the supply demand dynamics and the difficulties of maintaining cashflow and bringing product to market is how JD Rockefeller became the wealthiest man ever to walk the earth to date.
  • CB
    Clifford B.
    22 September 2020 @ 23:23
    Great show guys. Big banks involved in money laundering... No surprise there.
  • ER
    Ernesto R.
    22 September 2020 @ 23:11
    thanks guys excellent show
  • DJ
    Delano J.
    22 September 2020 @ 23:09
    NQ Short interest is the highest it’s been since ‘08. Bears beware.
  • AH
    Andrew H.
    22 September 2020 @ 22:46
    Energy stocks have been hammered, but there are some that are very well positioned. And they will bounce.
  • MH
    Muddshir H.
    22 September 2020 @ 21:56
    Its tg tuesday
    • RT
      Rupert T.
      22 September 2020 @ 22:32
      this TG guy way too bullish, i get his idea, but energy has a long long winter ahead - not a chance there and stock indexes are a mess - kind of a perma bull cos he was uber bullishing into the 12% brutal drop which can easily repeat.
  • DS
    David S.
    22 September 2020 @ 22:31
    The money laundering problem through major banks has been in the news for a long time. If it is not reported, I understand the problem. The important point for me is the extent a bank is liable if they filed the paperwork with the governments correctly. I would appreciate any comments if you have an understanding. If not, maybe it can be worked into one of the presentations. Thanks. DLS
  • MD
    Mike D.
    22 September 2020 @ 22:29
    I appreciate Haley's news updates.
  • BK
    Bob K.
    22 September 2020 @ 22:24
    love TG Tuesday, always great to get his thoughts