Comments
Transcript
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MPSO new to all this but i keep understanding a bit more each day. Secular learning.
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TREd: High vol does not favor long call buying. High vol favors selling options as premium is typically overstated. Perhaps I miss understood your position but it sounded like you were suggesting buying calls in a high vol environment. Peace!
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DGSounds like alot of justification to pay higher multiple prices for all tech stocks.
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arSpending drives economic growth? Ed, you're better than that. You were the one that interviewed Dr. Murphy! :) (And did a terrific job, I might add.)
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AWThis is what I need. First RVDB I watched twice!!
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FLAsh absence of inflation? over 35 years? take a look at this https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUUR0000SA0R in September 1981 the purchasing power of a consumer $ was 107 now it is at 38....
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DRSo is Cooperman betting on growth stocks in a relatively short time horizon and we’re headed for a future like Japan’s lost decades? Or does he not think we end up like Japan? Are there key differences between our situation and Japan’s that could give reason to come to different conclusions?
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RMVery good overview
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RSFor a very good discussion of whether low interest rates justify buying stocks at excessive multiples of earnings, I would refer RV members to John Hussman who has written extensively about this argument. https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc200901 His point is simple. In the quest for yield, all assets are being bid up to the point that the yield will be zero. The recent price increases in the FANG stocks are the result of multiple expansion - not earnings growth.
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JCEd does a great job of weighing in on the "has everything changed" narrative with this discussion, particularly as regards consumer mindset and debt levels. Many people are weighed down with debt, anxious about covid, and worried about the economy. With justification - as an example Airbus considering a 2 year furlough. Will Boeing follow? It's going to take very significant continuing fiscal stimulus imo to move people into a more confident outlook that will be essential to drive growth, and even then debt level will suppress recovery. Powell knows this, hence his pleas to Government. Seems increasingly likely this will follow when the situation is sufficiently bad.
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DOGreat Daily Briefing, as always. :) However, when talking about ''secular stagnation'', you guys are looking ONLY to the actual data.... But guys, take a look at professor Russell Napier on financial repression, or even at Julian Brigden's video from yesterday.... This stagnation will remain ONLY until the USA government starts to spend fiscally and ALSO THROUGH THE POLITIZATION OF COMMERCIAL BANKS CREDIT.... Sum up to that the sharp decline in USA oil production and the subsequent rise in oil prices... WE ARE NOT IN KANSAS ANYMORE....LOL
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FLGreat work as always, I keep hearing this narrative of the discount rate: Lets assume that it may make sense (and its a may and an assumption) to justify current valuations: it talks of a system with expected low returns and of single components of the system with equally low returns and lots of sensitivity thus fragility if the assumptions change. so why invest in such an environment? I guess if you are a money manger you have no choice, if you are a billionaire you have to a certain extent have some chips in that game, but otherwise why? why play a game where expected returns can only be valued or justified on a relative base?
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MBGreat flow and broad content... so many phrases and terms I still don’t get... please keep doing the occasional definitions/explanations ...it’s such a revelation!
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WTDon't know what you really said
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TWLoved the new frame work. Keep it up
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MJThanks guys, definetly helpful. I'm slowly building up a picture of the system, you just added a couple of pieces :)
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MAGreat work guys. This is why I come here everyday!
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RMJust glancing at numbers using Morningstar, what I can't figure out is why Apple is trading at 34x PE while net income annual growth rate is 6% over the last 3 years while Google is trading at 32x PE while net income is growing 21% per year over last 3 years (as one comparison vs Apple). Another comparison is Microsoft growing earnings at 20% and trades at 36x PE. Get that it is about future earnings, but Apple is not showing a lot of innovation right now. Understand they are growing services, but still not sure why stock buyers love this stock at these levels.
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ABHi, guys. Ed & I went really big picture on today's RVDB — zooming out to the hit the deep fundamentals of equity valuations. Really curious to hear what you guys think about today's show!
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NIIt never hurts to review fundamentals like DCF once in awhile. Another great RVDB. Thanks guys.
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BBEd - In your dissertation on economic impact between private and public spending I had hoped you would of commented on the denominator - velocity. Velocity is a psychological phenomenon so it matters greatly where the money lands. You've mentioned this before. So can not public spend on things like infrastructure be more effective than handouts that pay down debt, saved or as we noticed lately put into Robinhood accounts?
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SSBrilliant. Thank you. More please...
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DEkeep ones like this coming, loved it
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MPThanks Ash and Ed for the continued education. Great work RV Team.
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GRAsh and Ed- thank you. I enjoy your daily talks everyday. I've been thinking about the growth vs value argument. One potential outcome of the markets is a sideways market for many years. In a sideways market, does that not benefit value? With bond yields being near zero and value paying a dividend, investors could compound their dividends over that time period (if they invested in value). Interested what others are thinking...
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GFRaoul has been talking about how RV is primarily an education platform for people who want to understand the economy and investing. Segments like today's RVDB are a great way to fulfill that vision.
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RBI have been poking around the edges of discounted cash flow valuations for some time. Today’s discussion really tied it all together. Love to hear more. Thanks.
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JHI enjoyed this segment. I’m not an expert macroeconomist so I enjoy the variety of topics. Narrow and broad. Comedy included. It aids in visualizing the whole picture.