Daily Briefing – September 30, 2020

Published on
September 30th, 2020
Duration
34 minutes


Daily Briefing – September 30, 2020

Daily Briefing ·
Featuring Haley Draznin, Ed Harrison, and Peter Boockvar

Published on: September 30th, 2020 • Duration: 34 minutes

Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison hosts Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer of Bleakley Advisory Group and editor of The Boock Report. Boockvar shares his macro analysis on what he calls "the pain trade": companies that have been the most hurt by COVID-19 and have the most to gain from re-opening. Boockvar and Harrison review the latest economic data and discuss what is and what is not priced into the markets. Boockvar also discusses banks as the ultimate value trap and why they may be poised for an ultimate turnaround should the long-end of the yield curve tighten. Real Vision reporter Haley Draznin breaks down two major technology companies, Palantir and Asana, and their direct listings on the NYSE today and how this could reshape the IPO market.

Comments

Transcript

  • RO
    Robert O.
    2 October 2020 @ 03:24
    China opened up but there is no way that they were able to provide a working vaccine to their population before this happened. I have not heard of a big second wave in China's death numbers. This begs the question: Did the virus change? (which is common for an RNA virus). So there appears to be a good chance that a US vaccine may not be needed. So if the pharmaceutic companies report positive test results that causes a rise in their stock price, this could be a good shorting opportunity if it looks like the value of the vaccine does not warrant wide spread use at a high price.
  • CM
    Cory M.
    1 October 2020 @ 21:04
    Love listening to Peter. PB Tuesdays would give some weight and macro thesis beyond the silly “by the tape” filler currently titillating viewers on Tuesdays.
  • TC
    Timothy C.
    30 September 2020 @ 23:44
    On Apple. Just some perspective on the phone is just an upgrade. History: Desktops dominated and laptops were fringe. Cost and utility. Laptops dominated, mobile phones were fringe. Cost and utility. Mobile phones dominate, Laptops mainstream, tablets emerge. Cost and Utility. Mobile phones dominate, Tablets grow in share, Laptops still mainstream. Apple is driving the iPad to start canibalizing laptops. I can see a scenario where the iPhone (and Apple) canibalizes other markets as well...
    • AB
      Alastair B.
      1 October 2020 @ 04:35
      I have in iPad Pro. It’s not a good replacement for a laptop, but it is a good placement for a smartphone if you have a Nokia dumb phone to take calls on
    • LF
      Liam F.
      1 October 2020 @ 20:19
      Tablets are great for consumption, but lousy for production. Laptops are good for both. Chromebooks are an excellent, inexpensive, laptop alternative provided one has ubiquitous connectivity.
  • MT
    Mark T.
    1 October 2020 @ 19:27
    Given the history of developing vaccines, I doubt there will ever be a vaccine for this cornavirus. And if by some chance they do find a vaccine that doesn't kill the host, it will be years and years before we see it. Science takes time.
  • DW
    Dean W.
    1 October 2020 @ 11:39
    Would love to see Ed interview David Rosenberg
    • JF
      Jack F. | Real Vision
      1 October 2020 @ 18:59
      well you're goin to love next week, Dean :)
  • KB
    Kurt B.
    1 October 2020 @ 09:02
    “The world’s sovereign bond markets are the sale of the century”. Can someone provide some additional gloss on Peter’s observation in that regard? Assume we get a viable vaccine in the relatively near term. I think I understood his “most beat up” cyclical trade ideas by comparison to the expectation of a continuation of the work from home/permanent behavioral change explosion since covid. But the sale of the century sovereign bond comment isn’t quite clicking. Thanks.
    • CK
      C K.
      1 October 2020 @ 09:20
      I.e. sell / short long dated sovereign bonds as (according to Peter) yields rise with cyclical inflation (and bond prices fall) following a vaccine.
    • KB
      Kurt B.
      1 October 2020 @ 14:42
      Ahh.....the light bulb just came on. I see up above you note he was saying “sell” of the century. I was hearing “sale” of the century. Hence my significant confusion. “Sale” of the century connotes something is undervalued in my opinion......and that was not making any sense in the context of what else he was saying. Thanks. Feel better with my understanding now.
  • op
    osman p.
    1 October 2020 @ 09:05
    Peter thinks yields will rise with vaccine. Yields rise= bond prices fall. His Closing remark : ‘world sovereign bond markets are steal of the century’. I am confused, what is his real belief?
    • CK
      C K.
      1 October 2020 @ 09:15
      I believe he said the "sell" of the century... he mentioned that once before in the interview.
    • cm
      cemil m.
      1 October 2020 @ 09:44
      Thanks for clarifying
  • VN
    Vitali N.
    1 October 2020 @ 00:58
    i failed to follow the logic of UPS/FedEx example in answering the question on the ability to pass thru increased costs. Followed by a tech example of cheaper plazma TVs and more powerful laptops jumping to the conclusion that the 10-year yield will go up bcz of the vaccine.
    • HB
      Herman B.
      1 October 2020 @ 03:08
      During the lockdowns, most passengers' airlines planes were grounded. The e-commerce picked up stream. In normal time, logistic brokers could route shipments to passengers air lines planes. This allowed to keep the cost of shipping down. With passenger airlines grounded, the logistical brokers were only left with UPS, Fedex, DHL, etc... that, because of high demand, increased the shipping rates that were passed on to customers. I remember ordering an item from Europe to North America, the shipping cost went from 10 euro to 15 euros. That is a 50% increase. Remember countries were fighting over PPP's gears. I suppose his point was, if provided with more choices, customers will drive prices down as they shop around. Take a look at what is happening to the trading fees. I once paid north of $100/trade. Now it is normal to expect free trading fees.
    • HB
      Herman B.
      1 October 2020 @ 03:36
      Hi Vitali, sorry I did not finish and unfortunately, I couldn't edit my message. .... to Continue..... if we get an effective and safe vaccine, we will get back to gradual normalization with limited supply of certain goods and services. If we stay with passenger air lines example, how much business traveling that will come back to pre-covit level? Probably less, so this will give price increase ability to the likes of UPS/Fedex ect. with less passenger planes in service... this would create inflation that will push up the interest bond yields. In other words, the demand will increase while the supply remain muted. He believes that the central bankers will get inflation sooner than they think. Hope I helped
  • TM
    Tyler M.
    1 October 2020 @ 03:06
    Good stuff. Enjoyed this. Haley, nice work on the intro—Great delivery. Ed and Peter, you guys are true professionals.
  • DG
    David G.
    1 October 2020 @ 02:46
    I really, really, really, love that I can speed up the the videos up to 2x.
    • DG
      David G.
      1 October 2020 @ 02:48
      I really don't like that I seemingly can't edit or delete my comments.
  • DM
    Dominic M.
    1 October 2020 @ 01:29
    Great discussion. I especially appreciate the housing market commentary. TY
  • TC
    Timothy C.
    30 September 2020 @ 23:24
    I agree with Peter on housing. Price appreciation is offsetting gains from lower mortgage rates. I would love to hear someone's view on the risk associated with mortgage rates which now seems asymmetric.
    • JF
      Jack F. | Real Vision
      1 October 2020 @ 00:34
      Timothy, tomorrow I will be speaking to Keith Jurow, who will discuss the state of the U.S. housing market
    • RM
      Robert M.
      1 October 2020 @ 01:05
      Just assisted daughter in buying a house in Atlanta. Using Zillow, seeing a lot of homes starting to cut prices after the initial surge. See the same in the Nashville area as one home near me just cut price from $3 million to $2.5 million. So believe that some people threw their homes on the market, particularly on the high end, hoping to get extended prices. After seeing some sell, current listings are now sitting on the market. But agree with Peter, overall, home pricing keeps going up at +inflation rates. It does make it very difficult for millennials to buy homes as prices move them out of reach. If unemployment stays high and white collar layoffs start to kick in, puzzled how home prices keep driving higher. Appreciate the supply/demand issue, but need people with high income to buy.
  • TC
    Timothy C.
    30 September 2020 @ 23:31
    Long term rates question: I'm not sure I understand the rates will go up narrative. The purchasing power narrative with persistent low rates seems more likely. CBs raising rates would kill Sovereigns debt service. How does that get reconciled?
    • RA
      Robert A.
      30 September 2020 @ 23:52
      Yield control out to 5 years and Fed switches longer maturities to the 5 yr and under and anything new on the balance sheet is 5 yr and under? Fed gets the financial repression they want and keep their debt service as low a possible.