“Money Incineration” in Stonks, “Champagne and Caviar” for the S&P 500

Published on
February 2nd, 2021
Duration
45 minutes

Is Silver “Next”? Plus an Update on Short Interest and Options Flow in GameStop


“Money Incineration” in Stonks, “Champagne and Caviar” for the S&P 500

Daily Briefing ·
Featuring Ash Bennington and Tony Greer

Published on: February 2nd, 2021 • Duration: 45 minutes

Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes Tony Greer of TG Macro to give an overview of GameStop as $GME and other retail favorites such as $AMC and $BBBY continue to unwind. Tony and Ash discuss the market mechanics behind margin requirements and liquidity concerns with Tony pulling no punches as he discusses key actors such as Dave Portnoy. Tony then proceeds to provide a strategic update on his natural resources trade as crude oil hits a new high and its futures curve enters backwardation. Lastly, Tony shares with Ash his outlook on the FAANG stocks, cannabis, and the velocity of money.

Comments

Transcript

  • EP
    Elton P.
    5 February 2021 @ 04:48
    Ash and TG great combo!!
  • ML
    Michael L.
    4 February 2021 @ 03:57
    Great chat Ash / Tony! If you want to nerd-out on brain functions, read "The Master and his Emissary" (Iain McGilchrist). All the details you could hope for on brain hemispheric functionality. Agree with Tony's macro views on energy--the world isn't ready yet for all-electric. Especially since most of the world's electricity will be generated by oil / NG / coal (!!) for many years to come. Energy has been in the S&P dog house for so long--but it's showing signs of life and what will happen when people start flying again???
  • PG
    P G.
    3 February 2021 @ 02:27
    Ash and Tony are at great pains to say that there’s zero evidence of improper conduct. If that is the case, how is it possible for 140% of open interest in a stock to be sold short? There’s a number of compelling narratives from informed market experts to suggest that ‘big money’ has been illegally counterfeiting GME shares. At times, this episode felt a little like an apology to Wall Street.
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      3 February 2021 @ 02:31
      I'd say we just don't know yet. I'm waiting for more evidence to come in.
    • MH
      Martin H.
      3 February 2021 @ 02:53
      It's quite possible for a stock to be lent out, sold short, then be lent out by the new owner and sold short again. You might only have 30% of the float available for shorting but it may have been short sold many times. 140% of the stock float is owed but they are notional stocks UNTIL they have to give them back. Much like fractional reserve banking, Deposits are never 100% covered and so long as demand doesn't' exceed liquidity there is no problem. However, if it happens then you need to find the price to move enough stock to resolve the issue.
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      3 February 2021 @ 02:55
      P.G. Check out the 14:30 mark
    • SS
      Socrates S.
      3 February 2021 @ 03:06
      The same shares can be borrowed and sold over and over again. It is rare but not unknown for short interest to go over 100%.
    • PG
      P G.
      3 February 2021 @ 09:04
      Thank you for the replies. For my part, I'm inclined to follow 'Occam's Razor' and believe that there's ample reason to suggest improper conduct. I'm always very loathe to form opinions on information that doesn't have academic levels of reference & citation. Would any of the experts in this forum, be able to find fault in the following:- http://counterfeitingstock.com/CS2.0/CounterfeitingStock.html
    • MH
      Martin H.
      4 February 2021 @ 03:15
      Naked short selling is possible and real but you need to be setup to take advantage of the loopholes in the system. It takes coordination between, at the least, two entities. If it is occurring you will see GME on the RegSho lists from time to time. If not a high % of margined investors in an actively shorted stock can produce the same result. Ironically lots of RobinHood traders will be having their stock in margined accounts lent out to be sold against them. This is a condition of most margined accounts that I have seen. As stated before this can lead to the same stock being lent and sold several times over. Just because the broker says it is in your account it doesn't mean it is there. Like a bank account all that matters to them is that they have enough of a float to cover those selling up long positions. Frankly the market seems to stump academics, I'd look to experience before I'd trust any 'academic paper', I've read some BS in my time as I am sure you have/will. That's my non academic 2c worth.
  • CD
    Carl D.
    4 February 2021 @ 02:14
    Jim bianco tweeted this on jan28: On @BloombergTV now, Interactive Brokers Chm Thomas Peterffy said regulators/brokers agreed that restrictions on trading because they believed the short squeeze would keep "going and going." So they had to "stop the losses." Stop the losses for whom, Thomas? Who was at risk?
  • an
    antti n.
    3 February 2021 @ 22:51
    Tony is my favorite slot in the weekly. And that is in competition with some really great regulars. And I'm ABS/Structured Credit guy.
  • NL
    Nikola L.
    3 February 2021 @ 01:06
    In 20 years from now no passenger car will be produced with internal combustion engine. In regards to planes (passenger planes) I’d say we will need about 40 years but yes, internal combustion engines will be gone this century. Some really heavy mining/industrial trucks and gear will still use diesel engines but that’s about it.
    • TG
      Tony G. | Contributor
      3 February 2021 @ 01:44
      I'll bet you all you want on the airlines being serviced by electricity. All. You. Want.
    • DD
      Darrell D.
      3 February 2021 @ 02:17
      Hi Nikola! Great name BTW. We named our son Nikolas (with that spelling) to honor Tesla (he's 24 years now) - Nikola Tesla, not the company obviously. I'm an electrical engineer -- and super nerd, but I can't tell you what the electrical landscapes will look like in 20 or 40 years. But in the current and next 10 years it is as Tony describes it. If you know other technologies that could change that, let me know and we can both be rich.
    • MH
      Martin H.
      3 February 2021 @ 02:47
      While we are refining oil, for all the purposes that electric propulsion cannot meet, we MUST produce petroleum. It is a part of the process. That petroleum MUST be sold and used so it will get cheaper to run an ICE as more electric cars are put on the road. There will come a cross over time when it's actually cheaper to run an ICE than an electric vehicle. I think that the ICE might hang on a lot longer than people are projecting. That's if the market is left to sort this out and we don't get legislated into them.
    • RR
      Ryan R.
      3 February 2021 @ 07:40
      Yeah... barring the occasional big war.
    • GH
      Guy H.
      3 February 2021 @ 19:50
      Twenty years to end the passenger car ICE age is a no-brainer. Fifteen years isn't an unreasonable bet but perhaps somewhere in the middle. The final collapse of passenger car ICE assets will be cliff-like: rapid and brutal. For aircraft, Musk estimates battery energy density of 400 Wh/kg will begin to see decent electrification options. Given current tech is pushing fast through 300 it's likely cavalier to suggest the ICE age will never end in the airlines business. Solar, wind and batteries will be the ultimate winner. Not even Hydrogen will win in energy. Everything else is a dead man walking and it's pretty funny to watch the musical chairs getting played with the incumbent energy companies.
  • RM
    Ross M.
    3 February 2021 @ 05:02
    I think you got one important thing wrong, Citadel Securities (A Broker Dealer not a Hedge Fund) pays Robinhood for retail order flow. Citadel's Hedge Fund arm is a completely separate entity and should have no access to order flow received by Citadel Securities. The law requires strict physical and information barriers between employees and systems of these two entities. Ash refers to Citadel the "Fund" receiving Robinhood flow, its not the case, Citadel Hedge Fund traders are not able to see much less trade ahead of retail client orders, even within the Citadel Securities Broker Dealer there should be a very limited number of people with access to the Robinhood order flow, probably just the Market Making desk, supervisory and support personnel. Yes the Retail flow that Citadel Securities pays for can either be internalized or it can be routed out for execution, most likely using smart router tactics accessing both public quotes and dark pools. Ash described this as Citadel "buying optionality" to trade or route out the order, this is not a specially paid for privilege, this is a standard function of market making, it is commercially infeasible and financially irresponsible for a market maker to contractually agree to principally trade every share in every stock routed to them. Think about the consequences of Citadel being forced to take a naked short position against every buy order of GME sent to them by Robinhood last week. A market maker doesn't control what's routed to them, the volume, the volatility and toxicity of the flow or the market conditions when they receive the orders and therefore need the flexibility to either facilitate or layoff an order. It is both a commercial and risk management necessity, not a specially negotiated privilege. It's also worth pointing out that this market making desk is forbidden by law from trading proprietarily ahead of client orders. (They have had some regulatory issues in the recent past but judging from the size of the fine and the description of the infraction they don't look systematic or intentional) Tony stated that Citadel "High Frequency" traders get a look at the retail flow prior to execution. No one outside of the risk aggregation unit, i.e the trading desk(s) who can see the trading positions generated from the retail flow, can legally see that order flow at all and any trader that can see the order flow cannot trade for their own account in front of the client. If they do its a significant breach of the law. From a more practical standpoint these retail orders are "Held" orders, meaning the order must be either internalized or routed out immediately, these trades are executed instantaneously by machines using sophisticated computerized market making programs not people. I don't know Citadel's trading structure but the market making desk that trades Robinhood's orders and what Tony refers to as "High Frequency" traders could very likely be one in the same desk/aggregation unit. So Ash the person that would come on to explain this phenomenon is not a Hedge Fund trader, they would know nothing. The person to explain this would be someone on a Sell Side electronic/retail market making desk at the Broker Dealer.
    • RR
      Ryan R.
      3 February 2021 @ 07:19
      Thanks for your points and taking the time to write it out. As someone who is learning about HFT and how the machine really works, it would be helpful to have some sources. I am especially interested in the regulations around traders not being able to legally “see” flows... I can imagine a lot of loopholes to the definition and enforceability of “seeing flows.”
    • TG
      Tony G. | Contributor
      3 February 2021 @ 13:15
      No that's fair - there were distinctions that could have been made that sort of get lost in the shuffle because this is such a multifaceted story. Thank you for taking the time to illustrate them so well - you're ABSOLUTELY right.
    • RM
      Ross M.
      3 February 2021 @ 18:48
      @RyanR HFT is a somewhat generic term that seems to encompass a number of disparate strategies and players from the latency arb players that the IEX speed bump was designed to thwart to electronic market makers like Citadel or Susquehanna and probably lots more in between. There is plenty written on the pros and cons but due to the secretive nature of proprietary trading models I'm not sure how precise these assessments are or how long they reflect the current state. If you want to go down this Rabbit hole there are plenty of white papers and market advocacy papers from both sides of the fence, perhaps a starting point would be Michael Lewis's Flash Boys and the response from HFT players, particularly Ken Griffin at Citadel who very publicly challenged many of the points made in the book. On the pro side you have the argument that these HFT trading models provide liquidity and narrow spreads and therefore minimize trading costs and on the con side you have the argument that these firms have qualitative advantages over other market players, for example their direct market data feeds are superior and faster than other players and their order entry servers are physically closer to execution venues and use superior technology that give them a speed advantage so that when you trade with them as a counterparty your trade performance is poor, meaning if you look at the direction of the market in the seconds after the trade executed if you were the buyer the price went down and therefore the HFT player who sold you the stock was able to profit by buying back their position lower. Personally I think there are times when HFT players provide benefit and times when you probably don't won't to interact with them but its certainly a very complex landscape. I think the SEC is trying very hard to ensure fair access and a fair market place but US market structure and advancing technology make it a fast moving target. In terms of information barriers the first point is very simple, many companies have both a broker dealer arm and an asset management arm, these are effectively separate companies and information and access is completely separate. This is a common point of confusion. The second principle is that within a broker dealer there is a "need to know" principle, I don't know the precise securities laws that govern this but they are strong and enforced. This guideline impacts front-running rules that may prohibit a trader from trading if they can see certain customer order flow. It affects how principal sales must be marked long or short and require a borrow depending on how different trading desks are combined or segregated. There is also the need to protect client anonymity particularly for large institutions that trade large size. The integrity of information barriers is critical and from my experience taken seriously. The challenge today is that you have a significant increase in the costs of doing business, market data and technology costs, compliance with regulatory burdens. You have also seen commissions compressed significantly, in the retail world commissions have gone to zero, in the institutional world commissions are a miniscule fraction of what they once were. This is compounded by the extreme level of automation that has taken place over the last 5 to 10 years and the consequent reduction in headcount. You have an explosion in volumes, increased complexity, increased automation and fewer people to manage it so its a complex technical and operational challenge to keep these barriers perfect but from my limited experience it was taken very seriously by Broker Dealers and by Regulators alike. Is it impossible for their to be a bad actor or for their to be an operational mistake? No but I doubt there is a systematic nefarious effort to disadvantage clients at major firms. You're entitled to your own view but this is mine.
  • MM
    Mike M.
    3 February 2021 @ 12:33
    I think you guys may be missing one point on this one. The youth of today have been handed a debt bomb from the boomers and actually have no future outside of technology. What they do have however, is access to information, which their parents never had. They’re going after the usual suspects (not the best way though) who have engineered every crisis since the fall of the Roman Empire and the truth is seeping to the top. Interesting times my friends, interesting times.
    • RD
      Rick D.
      3 February 2021 @ 17:59
      Yup, 100% agree.
  • PG
    Philippe G.
    3 February 2021 @ 13:43
    Yeah, no...r/WSB wasn't pushing silver
    • JF
      Jess F.
      3 February 2021 @ 14:42
      even Tony has been taken in by the narrative, fact check r/wsb were NOT recommending SLV
    • RD
      Rick D.
      3 February 2021 @ 17:58
      Yeah. Disappointed they both pushed that. Literally all they had to do was click a link and search for SLV on /r/WSB. Nearly any post about SLV was negative. But that was too much, apparently.
  • HR
    Humberto R.
    3 February 2021 @ 17:11
    Who best to help the climate greenies?... Nuclear.
  • ND
    Nivtej D.
    3 February 2021 @ 16:13
    Great work once again! Tony is Canadian “eh” lol cheers guys
    • JP
      Jacky P.
      3 February 2021 @ 17:07
      "eh"
  • JA
    John A.
    3 February 2021 @ 03:15
    Tony, WSB has been doing these sorts of things since well before 2020. You don't know the culture you are talking about. They have been against bears for a while (what they call them is derogatory so I will refrain) It won't go away till the market crashes and burns and wipes out a lot of people. If you think this is over with GME, you are just learning about the crazy calls coming out of that subreddit.
    • JA
      John A.
      3 February 2021 @ 03:22
      Also, stop discussing the false narrative that the Silver manipulation over the weekend was the result of WSB. Spending two minutes on their forums would educate you to the fact that someone took advantage of the notoriety of the community to pump and dump, and no one bothered to do their own research. Honestly, don't believe what you hear on news media. They either are already bought and paid for, or they do zero independent research.
    • JF
      Joao F.
      3 February 2021 @ 16:03
      Totally agree! Price actions is meaninless if there is no selling volume and if every dip is an opportunity to buy more. At the end teh HF need to buy to cover their shorts (or we will all be witness of the greatess fraud in the financial markets history).
  • RL
    R L.
    3 February 2021 @ 03:41
    Tony totally missed the point here. he has a pretty narrow perspective on what is being internalized by the WSB supporters.
    • JF
      Joao F.
      3 February 2021 @ 16:00
      I agree. You only need to spend a couple of days on WSB to understand their dynamics
  • PU
    Peter U.
    3 February 2021 @ 10:31
    Ash, you look much better with longer hair.
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      3 February 2021 @ 15:34
      Perhaps. But I don't know how to cut it myself!
  • JA
    Jose A.
    3 February 2021 @ 14:40
    Great summary of WSB-GME phenomena. I would only add that the opacity of the clearing process and its slow speed (t+2) is part of the problem. Doesnt seem very 21st century to have clearing take so long.
  • SL
    Stephen L.
    3 February 2021 @ 13:42
    "youve got them by the ... lapels" haha. Your'e a consumate professional Ash.
  • JJ
    James J.
    3 February 2021 @ 13:36
    Ash with the split-brain insight from nowhere :D that was a brilliant addition to the daily note. Happy sailing fellas
  • AV
    Andrej V.
    3 February 2021 @ 13:05
    Welcome to Quad 2 Tony!
  • CB
    Camille B.
    3 February 2021 @ 00:14
    The narrative was lost here; to summarize the point - a loss of liquidity prevented small traders to continue trading GameStop. So what would have happened if they could have continued to buy? You can't pass judgements till you address that. As far as reputation, the little I know SAC Capital pleaded guilty to insider trading charges and paid a record $1.8 billion penalty - so there's some explaining to do there. You were hoping to speak to the little guy; it got messed up. A lot happened here.
    • RK
      Robert K.
      3 February 2021 @ 00:44
      Indeed.
    • TG
      Tony G. | Contributor
      3 February 2021 @ 01:46
      they could have bought all they wanted on another platform next question.
    • CB
      Camille B.
      3 February 2021 @ 12:09
      Yes, simply move to another platform, just like that. From CNBC "Free-stock trading pioneer Robinhood and Interactive Brokers took steps to curb the wild trading activity in heavily shorted names like GameStop". I'm sorry, but I really feel this whole review was badly botched. The appearance of being biased and deaf is there. I generally very much enjoy RealVision and the Daily Briefing, but being talked down to doesn't work. You will not bash your way through this. This is my opinion.
  • Ad
    Adam d.
    3 February 2021 @ 12:01
    Ash, really liked the split brain analogy. Love Ash & Tony days. Keep up the great conversations, always appreciated!
  • RS
    Roger S.
    3 February 2021 @ 04:08
    The whole issue of pay for order flow means Citadel is buying something. What is it? It is the ability to front run everyone else's trades. And the SEC acts like that is a normal function of the market. This is just corruption and the public can see it. When the market is so corrupt ultimately it will fail. The goose will be finally cooked.
    • RM
      Ross M.
      3 February 2021 @ 06:51
      Citadel doesn't buy order flow to systematically trade ahead of client orders. The SEC certainly doesn't endorse or tolerate the front running of client orders. You can go to the SEC website and there are plenty of enforcement actions for front running, including Citadel. No major firm would systematically front-run client orders as it is so easy to detect and the consequences so severe. All broker dealer trades, both principal and agency, are sent to a US regulator with timestamps on a one day delay, soon it will be real-time. Also trading ahead of a client order can only be profitable if the size of that order is impactful enough to move the stock a meaningful amount. If for example a mutual fund had an order to buy 50,000 shares of a stock that traded 10,000 shares a day on average you can be sure that order is going to significantly move the price and buying ahead of that order would be profitable. Front-running little retail Robinhood orders in the liquid names they generally deal in would not be profitable and the regulatory risk would enormous. There is just no incentive to do it and huge risks. Firms like Citadel Securities pay for order flow and firms like Robinhood agree to the payment because it can be a mutually beneficial relationship to both parties. Citadel agrees to price improve a certain amount of Robinhood orders by executing between the best bid and offer giving the Robinhood client a better price than they would have gotten in the public market place. Robinhood gets a nice revenue stream for directing their flow to market makers. Robinhood also saves an enormous sum by avoiding the expense of building and maintaining their own state of the art algorithmic/smart order routing infrastructure. Citadel can price improve Robinhood orders and still profitably trade this flow on a principal basis without trading ahead of clients. All of this trading is done electronically using sophisticated automated trading models. Additionally Citadel has its own proprietary trades unrelated to retail market making that need executing. When an order is executed on an external venue the broker needs to pay an exchange fee. Citadel trades alot and pays very high exchange fees for sure. On retail trades that are not internalized Citadel can potentially cross those orders before they go out the door and realize meaningful savings on exchange fees, maybe they do this maybe they don't. The point is that the retail order flow has significant intrinsic value to Citadel. The only way to know if the arrangement between Robinhood and Citadel is fair to the Robinhood client is to look at the execution quality statistics and transaction cost analysis but the only people who know this are the people on the best execution committees at each firm. If there was an issue here it would be that Citadel was not price improving enough or was giving Robinhood clients prices worse than what they would have gotten in the public marketplace and Robinhood looked the other way because Citadel was paying handsomely for the privilege. If there is an issue that would be it but it would be very shortsighted for either party to do that.
    • MT
      Mike T.
      3 February 2021 @ 10:55
      @ Roger S. I have absolutely no doubt you will NOT believe what I'm about to say, if you disagree the best possible outcome would be for you to research in a deep and meaningful way to find your own truth. Your post describes a scenario that many sincerley believe is true but it's wrong, totally wrong! There are multiple 'elements' of Citidel, but Citidel the Market Maker and other Market Makers like them e.g. Jump, Susquehanna, perform a vital service benefitting all market participants, particularly benefitting 'Retail' traders. Now here comes something you many find difficult to accept at first. The very fact MM's pay brokerages for Order Flow leads to a highly competitive Market place so enhancing Liquidity and narrow Bid/Ask spreads, Time to Fill, low comissions etc Why is this so? Because the Brokerages are constantly monitoring the performance of the MM's and as soon as a MM misses it's SLA, the Brokerage will ditch them. The very fact Citidel the Market Maker is competing in 'real time' with other MM's eg Jump, Susquehanna to offer best prices, optimal liquidity, all market participants win. Key point to note: Market Makers do not, absolutely do not trade against the customer. Their business model is purely volume, all they're insterested in is processing as many orders as possible from which they take a tiny percentage think of it as $0.0000001 per individual fill, but on billions upon billions of orders (fills) adds up to a lot of money. In real time, they (their Computers) are constantly ensuring their 'Book of Billions of Orders' is overall Delta Neutral. How they achieve this in real time is the 'real secret sauce' of their business. MM's are NOTpopulated with masses of traders trying to do the dirty on 'dumb' retail traders, rather MM employee profile is heaviliy populated with PhD Data Scientists, Software developers, Risk managers. If you wanted to completly screw up the Market as we know it today, then start a compaign to stop MM's paying for order flow and if succesful, the end result will be an Illiquid Market Place that would instantly stop Retail Participation in it's tracks as the cost of trading would go up, liquidity will disappear, spreads will widen.
  • AK
    Andrew K.
    3 February 2021 @ 03:47
    Great discussion on silver, but interviewee needs to be very careful talking about rates / inflation as he seems to be out of his depth. I recommend he watch Lacy Hunt's interviews.
    • AK
      Andrew K.
      3 February 2021 @ 09:49
      Downvotes confirm to me what Raoul says that everyone is positioned for reflation. Let me just call out one point: higher commodity prices are NOT inflationary.
  • JM
    Jonothan M.
    3 February 2021 @ 09:32
    Very good video, some great insights.
  • DA
    David A.
    3 February 2021 @ 08:56
    The Wall Street Bet guys have enjoyed a brief moment in the sun but I don't think history will show the past week not to have been that significant. Certainly more discussion about it is not leading to greater insight. I'm more interested in hearing why Tony Greer has gone from scaling back positions two weeks ago to wishing he had more capital to allocate. My mindset is similar (sorry Raoul) but an explanation of why Tony thinks the dust is settling would have been so interesting.
    • DA
      David A.
      3 February 2021 @ 08:59
      I should read my posts before submitting them: "I think history WILL show the past week not to have been that significant"
  • MH
    Martin H.
    3 February 2021 @ 02:18
    They didn't go after silver, read the Reddit.
    • KC
      Kronos C.
      3 February 2021 @ 08:22
      The silver posts got deleted by the mods. Silver has been a play by WSB long before GME. This time the silver jump has nothing to do with WSB, but members posting that silver shouldn't be bought is just wrong. Its WSB not GMEbets
  • JL
    Jonathan L.
    3 February 2021 @ 08:21
    Didn't realize Mr Greer worked the gold/PMs desk at GS. Any chance of a specialized segment with him on his experiences/insights of that market? I suspect there is plenty of interest among the RV subscriber base. Thanks!
  • JL
    Jonathan L.
    3 February 2021 @ 08:21
    Didn't realize Mr Greer worked the gold/PMs desk at GS. Any chance of a specialized segment with him on his experiences/insights of that market? I suspect there is plenty of interest among the RV subscriber base. Thanks!
  • DG
    David G.
    3 February 2021 @ 07:45
    Please help me understand the contrast between, the "best in business Tom Thornton" talking about 5th waves and the market being toppish on Jan 26, Raoul giving emergency announcements on a Sunday about what is troubling him about these markets, and Tony saying today, " this is not the kind of risk rally I want to fade until something dramatically changes with the mechanicals of it." Tony what specifically are you looking for, that would give you a more bearish view? Can you please explain how your view of the mechanics of the market, fits in with Tom's 5th waves and technical analysis, Demark indicators, and with the various observations that made Raoul give a worried PSA from an angle of his home/bar that we aren't accustomed to? If not here, then maybe next Tuesday, if you are scheduled on that day. Great segment by the way. I'm just trying to understand the seemingly contrasting worry levels between regular contributors.
    • DG
      David G.
      3 February 2021 @ 08:15
      I commented last Tuesday, "I don't think this market will "fade", whatever that means. A controlled burn will swiftly be met with dip buyers, who will have to see a lower low, followed by a lower high of the broad markets, and a sharp rollover, to be scared off. For euphoria to suddenly shift, this thing has to hit a brick wall, like 100 mph to Zero, in zero seconds flat. Instadeath! You are going to have to start the day hitting circuit breakers to the downside on the open. Nothing less will scare this market." It was a bit of hyperbole but, I have a similar feeling as you, except my feeling is based purely on my novice reading of the environment, as opposed to your expert internal understandings of the market. I regard all contributors and host as being smarter and more knowledgeable about these streets, so I struggle to put the differing DB opinions and worry into their intended context and timeframes. Thanks.
  • MJ
    Marc J.
    3 February 2021 @ 07:56
    Ash, I could bloody kiss you for sharing the Roger Sperry stuff, you've filled in the missing piece for my question regarding narratives and why they can create such emotions when someone suggests the counter narrative. Great interview and really great to hear TG's thoughts on the whole Gamestop shenanigans.
  • DD
    Darrell D.
    3 February 2021 @ 01:30
    Fantastic! The best commentary on the GME and whole short squeeze fiasco I've heard yet - and an education on some of the market plumbing. Thanks Ash and Tony. For RV: Balanced, informative, rational and most unusual of all, empathetic - to all sides. Combine all that with passion (without emotion) and what do you get? Sincerity. Its a complex equation but that's what people I know are hungry for today. Truth and sincerity. - Any media outlet let understands this could corner the market...for real [vision]. I think this is a big part of the value of RV. Where else can you get those traits in ANY media? RV should bite the bullet and start a political channel and try to democratize all of the mis-information, half-truths and utter bullshit we get in THAT arena. - wait, on second thought...scratch that idea. Not even Ash and Tony could talk about politics without multiple references to "Running their heads into a wood chipper" (my new favorite TG quote). - but if you could find a way, I would appreciate it. For all RV viewers: Great insight on the SLV short, PMI, Oil and producers, Alt-Energy --- As an electrical engineer, Tony and Ash have the basic energy equation correct. And neuroscience!! Meme-time and cognitive biases! This is absolutely a must watch. You could learn something about yourself and the markets here. And Tony has an Eddie Van Halen Frankenstrat model over his right shoulder. - next to his "dad" plaque. - Love this guy! My only criticism...Two plaid shirts on a split screen gives me a headache. Great work fellas!
    • TG
      Tony G. | Contributor
      3 February 2021 @ 01:43
      the shirt overlay was a low grade disaster. love the constructive commentary.
    • PB
      PHILLIP B.
      3 February 2021 @ 01:49
      Re the shirts, I figured they emailed each other earlier in the day to coordinate attire?
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      3 February 2021 @ 07:46
      Ha. Thanks, Darrell. Much appreciated, man.
  • DS
    David S.
    3 February 2021 @ 01:34
    Post hypnotic suggestion can put a person in an unexplainable situation also. The subject invents a story to explain the reason for strange behavior. An example is crawling around looking at a floor. Asked why? He may say his stock broker wants him to invest in wood flooring. Mr. Greer is correct. We use a fiction to explain or reinforce an emotional position. Human, all too human. DLS
    • JD
      Jimmy D.
      3 February 2021 @ 01:43
      dude what lmao
    • DS
      David S.
      3 February 2021 @ 07:20
      It happens in normative behavior too. The ego tries to get out of a situation where the Super-Ego is upset with the Id's proposed action or action. I find Freud works better in normative behavior than in mental illness. DLS
  • dm
    darren m.
    3 February 2021 @ 06:19
    Goos stuff as always Tony. Ash, Your best so far. You're getting good at this!
  • RC
    Robert C.
    3 February 2021 @ 05:08
    Love it man!
  • DM
    Douglas M.
    3 February 2021 @ 02:46
    Steve Cohen now knows what it's like to be any conservative or libertarian on Twitter.
    • AB
      Alastair B.
      3 February 2021 @ 04:47
      Delete Twitter to improve your mental health. Read ‘The Shallows: What the internet is doing to our minds’ and ‘stand out of our light’ to know why.
  • CM
    Chris M.
    3 February 2021 @ 04:29
    Maybe if the systems were transparent then there wouldn't be a need to "make up a story". Absolute power corrupts absolutely.
  • kR
    kirk R.
    3 February 2021 @ 04:23
    we don't need the internet, just ask Ash! holy smokes that dude knows a lot! great vid today guys!
  • AA
    Alberto A.
    3 February 2021 @ 03:58
    Great talks guys! is like sitting at the bar having a beer and talking stories about the market! ....and positioning for the future. I really enjoy how Tony is always looking at the bright side of the market vs a lot of "gurus" claiming this is a toppy risky market! .....morning navigator is awesome for those who don't subscribe yet!
  • CW
    Christopher W.
    3 February 2021 @ 03:30
    Nice insightful and unbiased discussion. Ash always killing it with the contrary perspective. TG you cool too.
  • BD
    Bruce D.
    3 February 2021 @ 00:38
    Tony sounded OK until he got to precious metals then it seemed he made the case that the market is controlled by the big payers and the little guy can't do shit and they just laughed.
    • RK
      Robert K.
      3 February 2021 @ 00:43
      100% agree.
    • NL
      Nikola L.
      3 February 2021 @ 01:09
      I think he was right on PM and silver in particular. Miners just increase production if price rises. Miners can also hedge future production once price go up. Not as easy as squeezing GME shorts.
    • DD
      Darrell D.
      3 February 2021 @ 03:17
      I happen to think Tony is correct in this regard. Where do you disagree?
  • GH
    Glen H.
    3 February 2021 @ 03:08
    I watch these videos to get ideas for my portfolio. With due respect, my preference is to move on from GME and short squeeze story AND unless something changes in Covid, then dial that back to. Please focus on what’s going to help us better position our investments. Thanks.
  • JV
    J V.
    3 February 2021 @ 02:58
    I would really like to see Real Vision bring in an expert on silver and the silver futures market film an interview. The extension of the GME discussion, and the complex discussion of the clearing mechanisms, and then jumping to AA and finally to silver is just not helpful. Tony refers to 'they' (reddit crowd?) with a "folklore story of a shortage of silver" and seems to equate silver with GME. Silver is fundamentally different from GME in lots of ways, and two DB's in a row are doing a disservice by equivocating on this. Silver is a commodity that is necessary in lots of high tech, medical, solar, etc. Mine supply is approx. 9:1 vs. gold, yet the gold/silver ratio is north of 68 as a type this. much of the silver used in industrial form is not recoverable in an economical way (except maybe at much higher prices) and it has been directly tied to the monetary system for thousands of years. GME is a video game retailer. I look forward to Tony's Tuesday contribution, but that was just sloppy and dismissive, especially when premiums for people who would like to buy silver as near or at all time high's, and you have to wait for several weeks or more to get possession. retail coin shops are wiped bear, and their suppliers are too. I don't think this is primarily the WSB crowd (I've looked at WSB several times and only see a few mentions of #silversqueeze with relatively few upvotes). I subscribe to RV because I look for nuanced discussion that I can't find with MSM, and on this point, I think you guys are swinging well below your batting average. Ash and Tony, you guys are both stand up guys and would love to grab a beer with you some day, but can you please offer some more nuanced discussion of the silver market specifically, and not just lump it into the r/WSB GME narrative? You say you love helping the little guy, and I believe you do. I think the narrative of silver is far more complicated than you're making it, and doing a disservice to the community in lumping a necessary age old commodity that is still at 50% of ATH's with a video game store with huge short positions that was targeted for a short squeeze. thanks, jv
  • nw
    nathan w.
    3 February 2021 @ 01:38
    I'm 24, thanks for the compassion
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      3 February 2021 @ 02:58
      right on
  • PM
    Parth M.
    3 February 2021 @ 02:52
    You two are my fav!!
  • DD
    Darrell D.
    3 February 2021 @ 02:40
    bonus points to anyone who knows anything about edwards bernays and/or B. F. Skinner.
  • MC
    Michael C.
    3 February 2021 @ 02:36
    By tSo much to unpack...lol Let me put some meat on those bones...grin Seems like every generation has to cut its teeth on some traumatic market event, 1973-1974, 2000, and 2008 bear markets, to learn “stonks” can go down hard and stay down. Mine was Iomega…:( As TG said, there is nothing new under the sun. While some have suggested this is a “new” era with the WSB flash mob around the world mobilizing to smite the “Man”, the activity IMO is just an effort to corner some left for dead stocks with a stock pool tossed. New dress, some lipstick but the play’s the same. Pretty much a wasted effort to argue about silver. And the narrative? Losing money to prove a point? No thanks. Read about the Hunt Brothers’ silver corner, the Great Northern RR corner, the Piggly Wiggly corner, and yes the VW corner which did fail...corners fail. It has been rewarding, trading against corners with positions put on when the issues traded up 4-10 standard deviations on nothing but the flash mob and before they restricted shorting. But these companies were zombies, on life support, or pretty pedestrian like AAL and KR with no reason to stay up. It’s like they all got hit with a defibrillator and started running the 100M dash..rofl. As was pointed out, some clever minds in the WSB gang found GME where the hedge funds were over their skis and internal risk managers were asleep at the wheel. Kudos to them. But I suppose when one has been successful with this play, all these other companies look like GME but they weren’t. There is no free lunch and apparently no exit plan other than trying to blackmail the shorts to cover. It wasn’t a closed loop as the clearinghouses and brokerages weren’t going to get blown up. Margin calls...what an education! And the carny barkers like Mark Cuban, Chamath Palihapitiya, et al...MC was on CNBC today “it’s a new era, P/E’s don’t matter” etc. I doubt they’ll be calling the WSB gang to make them whole. If you don’t know who the mark is, then you’re the mark. I sincerely hope the scars aren't too bad such they abandon the markets...need true capitalists IMO. Robinhood did blow it, they should have closed trading in both sides of those issues...bad optics. Thomas Peterffy, Interactive Brokers was growling that if some brokerage blew up or caused clearinghouse issues, the whole system could come down as Raoul pointed out Sunday. Now for the conspiracy stuff...read the Flash Boys by Michael Lewis and Dark Pools by Scott Patterson. The idea of a free open market has been corrupted with the pools trading ahead of us. “Free” trades are the price. That’s where the investigating should start...GME is a side show. I don’t buy TG’s reflation thesis...I have experience and family in the shale fields. Lack of credit and the pandemic drove prices negative...this is the flip side...when you’ve been down so low, everything looks up! IMO we’ll see demand suppressed by worldwide formal/informal shutdowns in a few weeks due to virus variates caused by slow/no vaccination/virus suppression measures. And supply? At 55, shale guys will come back to life if they can get loans and OPEC/non OPEC nations will cheat. re:XOM. Look up the Parachute CO project...XOM has incredibly poor timing and execution. I don’t know if there’s a trade, long or short, in there but I just wouldn’t count on the clean carbon deal. And I agree with Tony, I think we’ll be using fossil fuels in some manner for years to come. Doesn’t mean we shouldn’t try to improve the environment. I think the trade will be shorting ESG/clean energy issues as they got bid up in anticipation...then they’ll realize it’s a long pull and a lot of rare earth metals to be “clean”. Like the TG Happy Chat for 2021 but markets are more extended than Feb 2020...true, it doesn’t mean a black swan will show up on cue but everything is ready for it. Great show.
  • MC
    Mark C.
    3 February 2021 @ 02:32
    TG tuesday. Look forward to them and the positivity of the markets. Even if I am not seeing the reflation trade come to fruition. But I like that narrative on Bond yields which I have been struggling to figure out since 2 am. Interesting take on GME but the optics of the whole situation fits the opposite narrative...it couldn't have looked worse. Though I would gather that TG probably has the story more correct than the narrative. Cheers.
  • RL
    Rho L.
    2 February 2021 @ 23:33
    This narrative that WSB went after the silver market is fake news that is based on one post on the platform that was removed and vehemently fought on the platform. Anyone who has spent even a small amount of time on Reddit saw that clearly.
    • CA
      Chris A.
      2 February 2021 @ 23:40
      It was total astroturf. Somebody paid to spam twitter for several days with "short silver" messages. I'd love to know who paid to astroturf it.
    • SP
      Stephen P.
      3 February 2021 @ 00:20
      Agree. The Silver WSB thing was an attempted distraction that the WSB guys denounced immediately. These guys are not that dumb.
    • JW
      Justin W.
      3 February 2021 @ 01:04
      As someone who is involved with the Wallstreet Silver movement on Reddit, I can confirm that we (or at least most) came from a very long standing Twitter silver circle. There was an attempt to team up, that the WSB crowd wanted nothing to do with so a separate feed was created for silver.
    • PB
      PHILLIP B.
      3 February 2021 @ 02:00
      I don't think it's so simple. In fact, I'd go so far as to say we'll never know what the exact sequence of events were. Not sure it matters. A great takeaway for the last few days re silver is there is a whole host of folks from younger generations who have gained a lot of knowledge on what's been going on in silver for decades now. Key takeaway: Take delivery of the physical.
  • JC
    James C.
    3 February 2021 @ 01:59
    I see new highs in Solar Inverters. https://elite.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=ENPH&ty=c&ta=1&p=m
    • JC
      James C.
      3 February 2021 @ 02:00
      & new highs in the EV metals. Still long some E&P's for sure
  • AK
    Andy K.
    3 February 2021 @ 01:59
    Tony is so good at explaining the markets. By far my favorite guest. I wish he had a daily show. Thank you TG and Ash.
  • NL
    Nikola L.
    3 February 2021 @ 00:10
    I like the new RV uniforms. 😁
    • PB
      PHILLIP B.
      3 February 2021 @ 01:56
      Yeah, I like how they email each other in the mornings and sync up on attire.
  • RP
    Ronald P.
    3 February 2021 @ 01:10
    It's Tuesday, February 2nd, and here's 40 minutes of rambling and emotional reactions with your favorite guest TGMadBro
    • TG
      Tony G. | Contributor
      3 February 2021 @ 01:44
      You mad Bro? You want to do a soulless G rated version? Go start a network.
    • PB
      PHILLIP B.
      3 February 2021 @ 01:53
      TG is a a guest I highly value. It's real. I look forward to these TG Tuesdays. Thank you, TG, I love you, man!
    • DD
      Darrell D.
      3 February 2021 @ 01:53
      Hi Ronald, can I ask how you thought any of this commentary was emotional? I just posted a comment where I thought the commentary was very rational, yet passionate, but un-emotional...I was curious to you opinion and what I may have missed...
  • SW
    Scott W.
    3 February 2021 @ 01:23
    As someone who worked for XOM in a few locations around the glove...never underestimate the cultural element. Big companies love to talk about how they have "expertise" but cultural hangover is what kills big old companies as much as any expertise or lack there-of. The people at the top of that company got there by drilling for oil, and in their ol' hearts of hearts they still believe in the superiority of black gold over everything else, and will until the day the company goes under. I'd also be pretty hesitant to invest in XOM with their history of borrowing to pay the dividend (i.e. robbing existing and future shareholders to prop up executive bonuses).
    • PB
      PHILLIP B.
      3 February 2021 @ 01:51
      Yeah, I was hoping a while back that they'd cut the dividend rather than borrowing to pay the dividend. For the domestic majors, I'm going to COP and CVX for this next cycle.
  • pd
    preston d.
    3 February 2021 @ 01:31
    Ash, normally you're an A to A+ interviewer, but today's grade is a bit lower. The story about the split brain was well timed, relevant, and well explained. You had a few uncharacteristic interruptions, though, that gave me pause. They were at 35:06, 33:59, and 24:22 (remaining times). Otherwise, this was a typically excellent Ash interview. I'll look forward to watching your future interviews. Readers: please give this comment a thumbs down if you disagree with me.
    • DS
      David S.
      3 February 2021 @ 01:38
      In a live interview, I am not sure it is so important, if valid. IMO you are sincere so no thumbs down by me. DLS
    • PB
      PHILLIP B.
      3 February 2021 @ 01:48
      It's a live interview with no prep. They do it every day. It's pretty much real time analysis. Conversational. I watch these daily briefings every day. I'm all good with today's edition.
  • NI
    Nate I.
    3 February 2021 @ 01:47
    Spot on with the PMs (no pun intended). I did great selling my PSLV to newbies when silver was around $30 and buying some back when silver was around $26. Solid explanation. Fits the reality perfectly. The discussion around Robinhood (RH), Citadel, Apex, etc has huge gaps that need to be filled. Not only did RH, Ameritrade, Schwab, E*Trade, etc. restrict trading in GME, so did Interactive Brokers (IB). Ostensibly at IB I can choose to route my buy or sell order of GME among roughly 20 exchanges or I can just let the software choose the national best bid/offer. I pay IB a commission for every trade. Until someone can explain why IB and others (who still charge commissions) restricted trading - not only in GME, but in many names, the story about RH and GME is at best incomplete. I hope RV & Ash will stick with this story like a Rottweiler with a bone until you get to the bottom of what actually happened. I had no participation in GME, but I am very concerned about the stability of the entire investment banking system - the so-called systemic risk. In fact, I've been systematically rotating out of stocks/bonds to gold, silver, real estate etc for decades over this concern. That sucks because it lowers my returns and it restricts capital formation for new businesses, but long gone are the days when I could request my stock certificates, put them in my safe, limit my exposure to the brokers and not worry about the bullshit that goes on with the brokers, banks, etc. This little incident makes me want to accelerate that move because I don't see it as a good old fashioned bull raid on GME where a few hedge funds got their clocks cleaned. Something broke and everyone took steps to mitigate it regardless of whether or not they were selling order flow. My gut feeling that the system itself was in peril, but I don't know that. Hopefully RV can find someone to explain what actually happened.
  • mf
    massimo f.
    3 February 2021 @ 00:21
    Tony, what do you think about the recent action of the DXY (and its effects on your natural resources trade since the weak dollar is the entire trade) as well as the correlation between highs in ISM prices paid number and bottoms of the dollar?
    • TG
      Tony G. | Contributor
      3 February 2021 @ 01:46
      subscribe to my note Massimo - I always discuss it. Too short a space to discuss here. Reach out.
  • MM
    Michael M.
    3 February 2021 @ 01:22
    That was a good one
  • RK
    Robert K.
    3 February 2021 @ 00:48
    Usually feel like I get more from Tony, found this a little obnoxious and way too ebullient about this market. Going to go watch Rao’s warning call from this weekend, stack some sats and look again at my miners.
  • JD
    John D.
    3 February 2021 @ 00:38
    Good RVDB....good job on sharing another nuanced consideration to all of this. On to my steak dinner...Cheers!!!
  • LA
    Linda A.
    3 February 2021 @ 00:35
    Thank u guys for such wonderful commentary! This WSB news is getting out of control. Just sheer ignorance & ego on Portnoy's part not to hear Cohen out. Portnoy incites & allows death threats to Cohen. In business, everything is personal. I am really sick of hearing Chamath (smart but so opinionated), Portnoy & Trump with their ego driven loud opinions stoking anger. Nowadays I can't stand to watch them on TV- click they go.
  • SR
    Sarah R.
    3 February 2021 @ 00:27
    Time stamps would be great...
  • FB
    Frederick B.
    2 February 2021 @ 23:51
    We like the stock.
  • MM
    Michael M.
    2 February 2021 @ 23:48
    So grateful. Magnificent chat as ever, gentlemen