Ash and TG great combo!!

Great chat Ash / Tony! If you want to nerd-out on brain functions, read "The Master and his Emissary" (Iain McGilchrist). All the details you could hope for on brain hemispheric functionality. Agree with Tony's macro views on energy--the world isn't ready yet for all-electric. Especially since most of the world's electricity will be generated by oil / NG / coal (!!) for many years to come. Energy has been in the S&P dog house for so long--but it's showing signs of life and what will happen when people start flying again???

Ash and Tony are at great pains to say that there’s zero evidence of improper conduct. If that is the case, how is it possible for 140% of open interest in a stock to be sold short? There’s a number of compelling narratives from informed market experts to suggest that ‘big money’ has been illegally counterfeiting GME shares. At times, this episode felt a little like an apology to Wall Street.

Jim bianco tweeted this on jan28: On @BloombergTV now, Interactive Brokers Chm Thomas Peterffy said regulators/brokers agreed that restrictions on trading because they believed the short squeeze would keep "going and going." So they had to "stop the losses." Stop the losses for whom, Thomas? Who was at risk?

Tony is my favorite slot in the weekly. And that is in competition with some really great regulars. And I'm ABS/Structured Credit guy.

In 20 years from now no passenger car will be produced with internal combustion engine. In regards to planes (passenger planes) I’d say we will need about 40 years but yes, internal combustion engines will be gone this century. Some really heavy mining/industrial trucks and gear will still use diesel engines but that’s about it.

I think you got one important thing wrong, Citadel Securities (A Broker Dealer not a Hedge Fund) pays Robinhood for retail order flow. Citadel's Hedge Fund arm is a completely separate entity and should have no access to order flow received by Citadel Securities. The law requires strict physical and information barriers between employees and systems of these two entities. Ash refers to Citadel the "Fund" receiving Robinhood flow, its not the case, Citadel Hedge Fund traders are not able to see much less trade ahead of retail client orders, even within the Citadel Securities Broker Dealer there should be a very limited number of people with access to the Robinhood order flow, probably just the Market Making desk, supervisory and support personnel. Yes the Retail flow that Citadel Securities pays for can either be internalized or it can be routed out for execution, most likely using smart router tactics accessing both public quotes and dark pools. Ash described this as Citadel "buying optionality" to trade or route out the order, this is not a specially paid for privilege, this is a standard function of market making, it is commercially infeasible and financially irresponsible for a market maker to contractually agree to principally trade every share in every stock routed to them. Think about the consequences of Citadel being forced to take a naked short position against every buy order of GME sent to them by Robinhood last week. A market maker doesn't control what's routed to them, the volume, the volatility and toxicity of the flow or the market conditions when they receive the orders and therefore need the flexibility to either facilitate or layoff an order. It is both a commercial and risk management necessity, not a specially negotiated privilege. It's also worth pointing out that this market making desk is forbidden by law from trading proprietarily ahead of client orders. (They have had some regulatory issues in the recent past but judging from the size of the fine and the description of the infraction they don't look systematic or intentional) Tony stated that Citadel "High Frequency" traders get a look at the retail flow prior to execution. No one outside of the risk aggregation unit, i.e the trading desk(s) who can see the trading positions generated from the retail flow, can legally see that order flow at all and any trader that can see the order flow cannot trade for their own account in front of the client. If they do its a significant breach of the law. From a more practical standpoint these retail orders are "Held" orders, meaning the order must be either internalized or routed out immediately, these trades are executed instantaneously by machines using sophisticated computerized market making programs not people. I don't know Citadel's trading structure but the market making desk that trades Robinhood's orders and what Tony refers to as "High Frequency" traders could very likely be one in the same desk/aggregation unit. So Ash the person that would come on to explain this phenomenon is not a Hedge Fund trader, they would know nothing. The person to explain this would be someone on a Sell Side electronic/retail market making desk at the Broker Dealer.

I think you guys may be missing one point on this one. The youth of today have been handed a debt bomb from the boomers and actually have no future outside of technology. What they do have however, is access to information, which their parents never had. They’re going after the usual suspects (not the best way though) who have engineered every crisis since the fall of the Roman Empire and the truth is seeping to the top. Interesting times my friends, interesting times.

Yeah, no...r/WSB wasn't pushing silver

Who best to help the climate greenies?... Nuclear.

Great work once again! Tony is Canadian “eh” lol cheers guys

Tony, WSB has been doing these sorts of things since well before 2020. You don't know the culture you are talking about. They have been against bears for a while (what they call them is derogatory so I will refrain) It won't go away till the market crashes and burns and wipes out a lot of people. If you think this is over with GME, you are just learning about the crazy calls coming out of that subreddit.

Tony totally missed the point here. he has a pretty narrow perspective on what is being internalized by the WSB supporters.

Ash, you look much better with longer hair.

Great summary of WSB-GME phenomena. I would only add that the opacity of the clearing process and its slow speed (t+2) is part of the problem. Doesnt seem very 21st century to have clearing take so long.

"youve got them by the ... lapels" haha. Your'e a consumate professional Ash.

Ash with the split-brain insight from nowhere :D that was a brilliant addition to the daily note. Happy sailing fellas

Welcome to Quad 2 Tony!

The narrative was lost here; to summarize the point - a loss of liquidity prevented small traders to continue trading GameStop. So what would have happened if they could have continued to buy? You can't pass judgements till you address that. As far as reputation, the little I know SAC Capital pleaded guilty to insider trading charges and paid a record $1.8 billion penalty - so there's some explaining to do there. You were hoping to speak to the little guy; it got messed up. A lot happened here.

Ash, really liked the split brain analogy. Love Ash & Tony days. Keep up the great conversations, always appreciated!

The whole issue of pay for order flow means Citadel is buying something. What is it? It is the ability to front run everyone else's trades. And the SEC acts like that is a normal function of the market. This is just corruption and the public can see it. When the market is so corrupt ultimately it will fail. The goose will be finally cooked.

Great discussion on silver, but interviewee needs to be very careful talking about rates / inflation as he seems to be out of his depth. I recommend he watch Lacy Hunt's interviews.

Very good video, some great insights.

The Wall Street Bet guys have enjoyed a brief moment in the sun but I don't think history will show the past week not to have been that significant. Certainly more discussion about it is not leading to greater insight. I'm more interested in hearing why Tony Greer has gone from scaling back positions two weeks ago to wishing he had more capital to allocate. My mindset is similar (sorry Raoul) but an explanation of why Tony thinks the dust is settling would have been so interesting.

They didn't go after silver, read the Reddit.

Didn't realize Mr Greer worked the gold/PMs desk at GS. Any chance of a specialized segment with him on his experiences/insights of that market? I suspect there is plenty of interest among the RV subscriber base. Thanks!

Didn't realize Mr Greer worked the gold/PMs desk at GS. Any chance of a specialized segment with him on his experiences/insights of that market? I suspect there is plenty of interest among the RV subscriber base. Thanks!

Please help me understand the contrast between, the "best in business Tom Thornton" talking about 5th waves and the market being toppish on Jan 26, Raoul giving emergency announcements on a Sunday about what is troubling him about these markets, and Tony saying today, " this is not the kind of risk rally I want to fade until something dramatically changes with the mechanicals of it." Tony what specifically are you looking for, that would give you a more bearish view? Can you please explain how your view of the mechanics of the market, fits in with Tom's 5th waves and technical analysis, Demark indicators, and with the various observations that made Raoul give a worried PSA from an angle of his home/bar that we aren't accustomed to? If not here, then maybe next Tuesday, if you are scheduled on that day. Great segment by the way. I'm just trying to understand the seemingly contrasting worry levels between regular contributors.

Ash, I could bloody kiss you for sharing the Roger Sperry stuff, you've filled in the missing piece for my question regarding narratives and why they can create such emotions when someone suggests the counter narrative. Great interview and really great to hear TG's thoughts on the whole Gamestop shenanigans.

Fantastic! The best commentary on the GME and whole short squeeze fiasco I've heard yet - and an education on some of the market plumbing. Thanks Ash and Tony. For RV: Balanced, informative, rational and most unusual of all, empathetic - to all sides. Combine all that with passion (without emotion) and what do you get? Sincerity. Its a complex equation but that's what people I know are hungry for today. Truth and sincerity. - Any media outlet let understands this could corner the market...for real [vision]. I think this is a big part of the value of RV. Where else can you get those traits in ANY media? RV should bite the bullet and start a political channel and try to democratize all of the mis-information, half-truths and utter bullshit we get in THAT arena. - wait, on second thought...scratch that idea. Not even Ash and Tony could talk about politics without multiple references to "Running their heads into a wood chipper" (my new favorite TG quote). - but if you could find a way, I would appreciate it. For all RV viewers: Great insight on the SLV short, PMI, Oil and producers, Alt-Energy --- As an electrical engineer, Tony and Ash have the basic energy equation correct. And neuroscience!! Meme-time and cognitive biases! This is absolutely a must watch. You could learn something about yourself and the markets here. And Tony has an Eddie Van Halen Frankenstrat model over his right shoulder. - next to his "dad" plaque. - Love this guy! My only criticism...Two plaid shirts on a split screen gives me a headache. Great work fellas!

Post hypnotic suggestion can put a person in an unexplainable situation also. The subject invents a story to explain the reason for strange behavior. An example is crawling around looking at a floor. Asked why? He may say his stock broker wants him to invest in wood flooring. Mr. Greer is correct. We use a fiction to explain or reinforce an emotional position. Human, all too human. DLS

Goos stuff as always Tony. Ash, Your best so far. You're getting good at this!

Love it man!

Steve Cohen now knows what it's like to be any conservative or libertarian on Twitter.

Maybe if the systems were transparent then there wouldn't be a need to "make up a story". Absolute power corrupts absolutely.

we don't need the internet, just ask Ash! holy smokes that dude knows a lot! great vid today guys!

Great talks guys! is like sitting at the bar having a beer and talking stories about the market! ....and positioning for the future. I really enjoy how Tony is always looking at the bright side of the market vs a lot of "gurus" claiming this is a toppy risky market! .....morning navigator is awesome for those who don't subscribe yet!

Nice insightful and unbiased discussion. Ash always killing it with the contrary perspective. TG you cool too.

Tony sounded OK until he got to precious metals then it seemed he made the case that the market is controlled by the big payers and the little guy can't do shit and they just laughed.

I watch these videos to get ideas for my portfolio. With due respect, my preference is to move on from GME and short squeeze story AND unless something changes in Covid, then dial that back to. Please focus on what’s going to help us better position our investments. Thanks.

I would really like to see Real Vision bring in an expert on silver and the silver futures market film an interview. The extension of the GME discussion, and the complex discussion of the clearing mechanisms, and then jumping to AA and finally to silver is just not helpful. Tony refers to 'they' (reddit crowd?) with a "folklore story of a shortage of silver" and seems to equate silver with GME. Silver is fundamentally different from GME in lots of ways, and two DB's in a row are doing a disservice by equivocating on this. Silver is a commodity that is necessary in lots of high tech, medical, solar, etc. Mine supply is approx. 9:1 vs. gold, yet the gold/silver ratio is north of 68 as a type this. much of the silver used in industrial form is not recoverable in an economical way (except maybe at much higher prices) and it has been directly tied to the monetary system for thousands of years. GME is a video game retailer. I look forward to Tony's Tuesday contribution, but that was just sloppy and dismissive, especially when premiums for people who would like to buy silver as near or at all time high's, and you have to wait for several weeks or more to get possession. retail coin shops are wiped bear, and their suppliers are too. I don't think this is primarily the WSB crowd (I've looked at WSB several times and only see a few mentions of #silversqueeze with relatively few upvotes). I subscribe to RV because I look for nuanced discussion that I can't find with MSM, and on this point, I think you guys are swinging well below your batting average. Ash and Tony, you guys are both stand up guys and would love to grab a beer with you some day, but can you please offer some more nuanced discussion of the silver market specifically, and not just lump it into the r/WSB GME narrative? You say you love helping the little guy, and I believe you do. I think the narrative of silver is far more complicated than you're making it, and doing a disservice to the community in lumping a necessary age old commodity that is still at 50% of ATH's with a video game store with huge short positions that was targeted for a short squeeze. thanks, jv

I'm 24, thanks for the compassion

You two are my fav!!

bonus points to anyone who knows anything about edwards bernays and/or B. F. Skinner.

By tSo much to unpack...lol Let me put some meat on those bones...grin Seems like every generation has to cut its teeth on some traumatic market event, 1973-1974, 2000, and 2008 bear markets, to learn “stonks” can go down hard and stay down. Mine was Iomega…:( As TG said, there is nothing new under the sun. While some have suggested this is a “new” era with the WSB flash mob around the world mobilizing to smite the “Man”, the activity IMO is just an effort to corner some left for dead stocks with a stock pool tossed. New dress, some lipstick but the play’s the same. Pretty much a wasted effort to argue about silver. And the narrative? Losing money to prove a point? No thanks. Read about the Hunt Brothers’ silver corner, the Great Northern RR corner, the Piggly Wiggly corner, and yes the VW corner which did fail...corners fail. It has been rewarding, trading against corners with positions put on when the issues traded up 4-10 standard deviations on nothing but the flash mob and before they restricted shorting. But these companies were zombies, on life support, or pretty pedestrian like AAL and KR with no reason to stay up. It’s like they all got hit with a defibrillator and started running the 100M dash..rofl. As was pointed out, some clever minds in the WSB gang found GME where the hedge funds were over their skis and internal risk managers were asleep at the wheel. Kudos to them. But I suppose when one has been successful with this play, all these other companies look like GME but they weren’t. There is no free lunch and apparently no exit plan other than trying to blackmail the shorts to cover. It wasn’t a closed loop as the clearinghouses and brokerages weren’t going to get blown up. Margin calls...what an education! And the carny barkers like Mark Cuban, Chamath Palihapitiya, et al...MC was on CNBC today “it’s a new era, P/E’s don’t matter” etc. I doubt they’ll be calling the WSB gang to make them whole. If you don’t know who the mark is, then you’re the mark. I sincerely hope the scars aren't too bad such they abandon the markets...need true capitalists IMO. Robinhood did blow it, they should have closed trading in both sides of those issues...bad optics. Thomas Peterffy, Interactive Brokers was growling that if some brokerage blew up or caused clearinghouse issues, the whole system could come down as Raoul pointed out Sunday. Now for the conspiracy stuff...read the Flash Boys by Michael Lewis and Dark Pools by Scott Patterson. The idea of a free open market has been corrupted with the pools trading ahead of us. “Free” trades are the price. That’s where the investigating should start...GME is a side show. I don’t buy TG’s reflation thesis...I have experience and family in the shale fields. Lack of credit and the pandemic drove prices negative...this is the flip side...when you’ve been down so low, everything looks up! IMO we’ll see demand suppressed by worldwide formal/informal shutdowns in a few weeks due to virus variates caused by slow/no vaccination/virus suppression measures. And supply? At 55, shale guys will come back to life if they can get loans and OPEC/non OPEC nations will cheat. re:XOM. Look up the Parachute CO project...XOM has incredibly poor timing and execution. I don’t know if there’s a trade, long or short, in there but I just wouldn’t count on the clean carbon deal. And I agree with Tony, I think we’ll be using fossil fuels in some manner for years to come. Doesn’t mean we shouldn’t try to improve the environment. I think the trade will be shorting ESG/clean energy issues as they got bid up in anticipation...then they’ll realize it’s a long pull and a lot of rare earth metals to be “clean”. Like the TG Happy Chat for 2021 but markets are more extended than Feb 2020...true, it doesn’t mean a black swan will show up on cue but everything is ready for it. Great show.

TG tuesday. Look forward to them and the positivity of the markets. Even if I am not seeing the reflation trade come to fruition. But I like that narrative on Bond yields which I have been struggling to figure out since 2 am. Interesting take on GME but the optics of the whole situation fits the opposite narrative...it couldn't have looked worse. Though I would gather that TG probably has the story more correct than the narrative. Cheers.

This narrative that WSB went after the silver market is fake news that is based on one post on the platform that was removed and vehemently fought on the platform. Anyone who has spent even a small amount of time on Reddit saw that clearly.

I see new highs in Solar Inverters. https://elite.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=ENPH&ty=c&ta=1&p=m

Tony is so good at explaining the markets. By far my favorite guest. I wish he had a daily show. Thank you TG and Ash.

I like the new RV uniforms. 😁

It's Tuesday, February 2nd, and here's 40 minutes of rambling and emotional reactions with your favorite guest TGMadBro

As someone who worked for XOM in a few locations around the glove...never underestimate the cultural element. Big companies love to talk about how they have "expertise" but cultural hangover is what kills big old companies as much as any expertise or lack there-of. The people at the top of that company got there by drilling for oil, and in their ol' hearts of hearts they still believe in the superiority of black gold over everything else, and will until the day the company goes under. I'd also be pretty hesitant to invest in XOM with their history of borrowing to pay the dividend (i.e. robbing existing and future shareholders to prop up executive bonuses).

Ash, normally you're an A to A+ interviewer, but today's grade is a bit lower. The story about the split brain was well timed, relevant, and well explained. You had a few uncharacteristic interruptions, though, that gave me pause. They were at 35:06, 33:59, and 24:22 (remaining times). Otherwise, this was a typically excellent Ash interview. I'll look forward to watching your future interviews. Readers: please give this comment a thumbs down if you disagree with me.

Spot on with the PMs (no pun intended). I did great selling my PSLV to newbies when silver was around $30 and buying some back when silver was around $26. Solid explanation. Fits the reality perfectly. The discussion around Robinhood (RH), Citadel, Apex, etc has huge gaps that need to be filled. Not only did RH, Ameritrade, Schwab, E*Trade, etc. restrict trading in GME, so did Interactive Brokers (IB). Ostensibly at IB I can choose to route my buy or sell order of GME among roughly 20 exchanges or I can just let the software choose the national best bid/offer. I pay IB a commission for every trade. Until someone can explain why IB and others (who still charge commissions) restricted trading - not only in GME, but in many names, the story about RH and GME is at best incomplete. I hope RV & Ash will stick with this story like a Rottweiler with a bone until you get to the bottom of what actually happened. I had no participation in GME, but I am very concerned about the stability of the entire investment banking system - the so-called systemic risk. In fact, I've been systematically rotating out of stocks/bonds to gold, silver, real estate etc for decades over this concern. That sucks because it lowers my returns and it restricts capital formation for new businesses, but long gone are the days when I could request my stock certificates, put them in my safe, limit my exposure to the brokers and not worry about the bullshit that goes on with the brokers, banks, etc. This little incident makes me want to accelerate that move because I don't see it as a good old fashioned bull raid on GME where a few hedge funds got their clocks cleaned. Something broke and everyone took steps to mitigate it regardless of whether or not they were selling order flow. My gut feeling that the system itself was in peril, but I don't know that. Hopefully RV can find someone to explain what actually happened.

Tony, what do you think about the recent action of the DXY (and its effects on your natural resources trade since the weak dollar is the entire trade) as well as the correlation between highs in ISM prices paid number and bottoms of the dollar?

That was a good one

Usually feel like I get more from Tony, found this a little obnoxious and way too ebullient about this market. Going to go watch Rao’s warning call from this weekend, stack some sats and look again at my miners.

Good RVDB....good job on sharing another nuanced consideration to all of this. On to my steak dinner...Cheers!!!

Thank u guys for such wonderful commentary! This WSB news is getting out of control. Just sheer ignorance & ego on Portnoy's part not to hear Cohen out. Portnoy incites & allows death threats to Cohen. In business, everything is personal. I am really sick of hearing Chamath (smart but so opinionated), Portnoy & Trump with their ego driven loud opinions stoking anger. Nowadays I can't stand to watch them on TV- click they go.

Time stamps would be great...

We like the stock.

So grateful. Magnificent chat as ever, gentlemen