Reopening Fake Out Sectors, Positive Jobs Data Surprises, and Renewed Stimulus Hopes

Published on
December 3rd, 2020
Duration
39 minutes


Reopening Fake Out Sectors, Positive Jobs Data Surprises, and Renewed Stimulus Hopes

Daily Briefing ·
Featuring Haley Draznin, Max Wiethe, Jack Farley, and Ed Harrison

Published on: December 3rd, 2020 • Duration: 39 minutes

Real Vision editor Max Wiethe is joined by both Jack Farley and Ed Harrison in this multi-part edition of The Daily Briefing. In part one, Jack and Max discuss the swirling optimism and pessimism surrounding reopening favorites like airlines and movie theaters and debate whether these industries and others like commercial real estate are in store for a new normal post-COVID. In part two, Ed Harrison returns to update his rough winter thesis in light of today’s positive surprise in jobs data and the renewed hopes for fiscal stimulus as news of good-faith bipartisan discussions and support from President Trump for slimmed down stimulus indicate a potential for more positive surprises. As well, they look forward at the pitfalls that still remain and tomorrow's more important jobs report. In the intro, Real Vision's Haley Draznin digs deeper into today’s jobless claims number to analyze why the weekly jobless claims fell last week after rising for two consecutive weeks and what this means for the labor market's recovery.

Comments

Transcript

  • OC
    O C.
    6 December 2020 @ 03:26
    As far as I am aware, the daily briefing videos are not being uploaded to YouTube in a timely manner. There is only five videos on the Real Vision YouTube channel. This is the only place that I know of that is up to date on the daily videos. Happy to be wrong on this though.
  • TR
    Tadej R.
    5 December 2020 @ 15:36
    In our compwny we already have virtual partyes...last time they sent us beer, this time we are getting wine for pre-xmas party. :)
  • IN
    I N.
    5 December 2020 @ 15:30
    This was a great RV DB segment!
  • RB
    Richard B.
    4 December 2020 @ 01:13
    verbose, not interested in these opinions
    • JF
      Jack F. | Real Vision
      4 December 2020 @ 02:46
      Hi Richard, I assume you’re talking about my section. Curious - was it my discussion of rare earths and electric vehicles that didn’t do it for you, or my discussion of commercial real estate and airlines? Always looking for constructive criticism so I can improve. Thanks
    • DS
      David S.
      4 December 2020 @ 04:10
      I liked the new format with three perspectives. Variation keeps it more interesting. Not sure what Richard B. was commenting about since he did not give specifics. Rare earths and electric vehicles were interesting. DLS
    • FP
      Fred P.
      4 December 2020 @ 21:44
      The least interesting part is the speculation around support packages, since speculations don’t help me in any way. I thought the EV content was great, though.
  • JS
    Jason S.
    4 December 2020 @ 03:54
    Please get rid of the intro section from hailey. Please.
    • DK
      Dejan K.
      4 December 2020 @ 10:20
      Skip it
    • SS
      Steven S.
      4 December 2020 @ 10:38
      I think Hailey does an excellent job and find her summary to be concise and informative.
    • mf
      massimo f.
      4 December 2020 @ 17:58
      I think she just needs to tweak her delivery a bit and make it flow a bit more naturally, I find she is kind of robotic in her delivery. Though I think it might just be due to her being (as far as I know) new to doing this.
  • MF
    Michael F.
    4 December 2020 @ 07:25
    Haley's delivery has been really improving over the past weeks. Impressive. Well done, Haley!
    • KZ
      K Z.
      4 December 2020 @ 15:40
      Yes, it’s really nice see that
  • RL
    Remmelt L.
    4 December 2020 @ 11:16
    When will Roger back from daily brieving?
  • PP
    Patrick P.
    4 December 2020 @ 02:21
    Haley.. you are really improving your delivery. I can tell that you are working on it, and it shows.... Good for you!
  • MK
    Martin K.
    4 December 2020 @ 02:19
    Isn't the copper trade already too overcrowded though?
  • DS
    David S.
    4 December 2020 @ 02:11
    I know the stock market is no longer tethered to the real economy, but weren't there a lot of financial problems before the pandemic? The pandemic only made them worse. I agree with Mr. Harrison's five points. I think the guests he interviewed are very smart, but a little myopic. DLS
  • DT
    David T.
    3 December 2020 @ 23:45
    Has anyone heard a virologist that thinks that next year life will return to normal or close to normal? I have not heard of any. On the contrary, most say that this virus gonna be with us forever and vaccination will be required twice a year to have immunity. It will take years before most of world is vaccinated even once. If you have a contrarian info link, can you replay with the link please.
    • PB
      PHILLIP B.
      4 December 2020 @ 01:35
      Sounds like you're taking them out of context. As best as we've all been able to ferret out from the info the last six months, "normal" is going to be life with COVID-19 as circulating coronavirus. "Normal" means there's going to be another vaccine. "Normal" means it's going to be another risk factor in life, though one that can be managed with vaccines and other, public health practices. Apparently, now that it's in animals, it's considered that there is going to be a permanent reservoir. For me, normal is when I'm willing to get on an airplane again after I take the vaccinations.
  • TC
    Tim C.
    4 December 2020 @ 00:55
    I think what happens to the yield curve is a complex question. I'd love to see Luke or Lyn talk about it in an hour long session. There are so many competing forces at work because so many things rely on treasuries. Everything from social security and the cost of debt servicing to collateral markets to FX and the dollar.
  • JH
    Jacqueline H.
    4 December 2020 @ 00:23
    Don't need a speculative informercial.
  • TC
    Tim C.
    4 December 2020 @ 00:20
    Some general thoughts on EV (FWIW): 1. EV will drive advances in battery technology. It already is, but it has been slow to gain traction. Everything from manufacturing to materials. Whether anyone can create exclusivity is a question and it will generally come down cost savings. So I think legacy auto manufacturers have a level playing field here. 2. Tesla seems to currently have an edge in manufacturing because all their vehicles share a similar manufacturing process and legacy auto manufacturers don't take risks to build new assembly lines because they haven't had to for decades. That can change, but it's a philosophical problem. European companies will probably do better here... 3. On a separate tangent, the quote I got for a Tesla roof for my house was ~ $40k (with 2x power walls), vs. a traditional roof which was quoted at $25k, and that's not including rebates... This is potentially an artifact of local roofing contractors jacking up rates has house prices go up (greed factor), while Tesla is expanding market share by improving factors of production... That said, we all know Tesla valuation is crazy, but EVs are not going away...
  • mf
    massimo f.
    4 December 2020 @ 00:19
    6 months ago, everyone was talking about supply chain disruptions, why has everyone forgotten about that? I would be willing to be that 90% of the growth in commodity prices are due to difficulty sourcing materials, not a supply/demand shortage. Copper prices started to accelerate when (nearly to the day) the Australia-China trade war was extended to copper, meanwhile next year the market is projected to be in surplus (it was in deficit in 2020 even before Covid) due in large part to Kamoa-Kukula starting production. This is all a head fake.
  • NL
    Nikola L.
    3 December 2020 @ 23:59
    NDPR and Copper boys.
  • JY
    Jason Y.
    3 December 2020 @ 23:40
    Just wanted to point out that the dates listed on the videos are set back a day late. Good work as always on the content though!
    • DT
      David T.
      3 December 2020 @ 23:46
      What is your timezone? :)