The Background for Black Friday’s All-Time Highs

Published on
November 27th, 2020
Duration
34 minutes


The Background for Black Friday’s All-Time Highs

Daily Briefing ·
Featuring Ed Harrison and Ash Bennington

Published on: November 27th, 2020 • Duration: 34 minutes

Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison and senior editor Ash Bennington discuss the all-time highs set on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite on this holiday-shortened trading day in U.S. equity markets. Harrison and Bennington also take a step back to evaluate the broader context for rising stock prices during the month of November. Specifically, the pair explores the apparent recent decrease of political risk in the U.S., the impact of increasing case counts and virus fatalities, the potential effects of a Covid-19 vaccine on the global economic climate, and the risk of future lockdowns and growing geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East.

Comments

  • OC
    O C.
    1 December 2020 @ 02:04
    Can this be captioned please? Thank you.
  • LS
    Lewis S.
    1 December 2020 @ 01:04
    I still don't understand how people don't understand that flattening the curve means you get the same volume over a longer period of time. Of course Sweden's numbers are worse so far, they did that on purpose. They took the medicine all at once. Conversely countries like mine (Australia) are the envy of the world because of our quick, hard reaction but I can't help but worry that we have sprinted into the start of a marathon. Too much short-termism. It's how things will play out over years and decades that matters.
  • SB
    Stephen B.
    28 November 2020 @ 13:53
    The market presuming that political risk has been removed may be premature. The GSA move doesn't mean much. Trump has not conceded, the court cases are ongoing and the Sidney Powell lawsuits go even further and allege foreign interference. No shortage of political landmines.
    • MT
      Mike T.
      30 November 2020 @ 10:17
      zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz. Enough, it's time for Trump to get ready for a face to face, close encounter with Tish James.
  • NL
    Nikola L.
    30 November 2020 @ 03:38
    Boys, I can’t thank you enough for this update. Even though I am watching it on Monday afternoon in Sydney, I still find it highly informative.
  • WE
    William E.
    29 November 2020 @ 16:01
    Forget ETH, Cardano (ADA) is the one you better start paying attention to. Also XRP had the biggest move over the past week.
  • PP
    Patrick P.
    28 November 2020 @ 04:16
    All the talk about covid 19 death rates ...doesn't square with this new Johns Hopkins report which indicates that total deaths in the US have not changed and in reality covid 19 has been blamed for deaths that prior to covid would have been listed as something else. Very Interesting...worth the read. https://web.archive.org/web/20201126163323/https://www.jhunewsletter.com/article/2020/11/a-closer-look-at-u-s-deaths-due-to-covid-19
    • PP
      Patrick P.
      28 November 2020 @ 04:21
      And yes I know that JHU took down the report ... but the report speaks for itself in these days of cancel culture.
    • SB
      Stephen B.
      28 November 2020 @ 14:02
      Some junior doctor or statistician clearly didn't get the memo that they are meant to talk up, not talk down, Covid 19 deaths.
    • NI
      Nate I.
      29 November 2020 @ 05:44
      That was an interesting report. I'm not knowledgable enough about the topic to opine on its veracity, but a question everyone should ask themselves is this: If the report was wrong, why didn't JHU point out the errors in lieu of censoring it? What I do know that HHS has accused the CDC of publishing false and misleading information about flu deaths (https://aspe.hhs.gov/cdc-%E2%80%94-influenza-deaths-request-correction-rfc). Knowing this, why should anyone assume they are forthright about cv19 deaths? Something stinks. Maybe it's coming from the JHU behavior or maybe it's the CDC data, but the stench is unmistakable. Regardless, the modern day book burning should be very troubling to everyone. There is no way to arrive at the truth if people face censorship, loss of their job, etc for offering a different perspective. Our leaders need accurate information with which to make decisions and there is good reason to think they aren't getting it.
  • JH
    Jacqueline H.
    28 November 2020 @ 18:52
    Next time try roast duck.
  • RC
    Rich C.
    28 November 2020 @ 17:41
    Half the energy complex is outperformed cryptocurrency’s over the past month and all we get is bitcoin, bitcoin, bitcoin. Come on guys. Enough with the infomercial.
  • DG
    David G.
    27 November 2020 @ 23:34
    The following is from page 14 of the Nov 20th DB transcript. Time minus 21:28 Ed HARRISON: Here's another one for you. We've got a question from Frank who says, would you add to a BTC position now? RAOUL PAL: I would suggest that wait for a pullback now. Something like a 20% sharp pullback is a great opportunity to get longer. Overall, I've been just ongoing adding every time there's a correction. We haven't had another correction for a while now, so let's just wait for that. Because even though you may be holding it for the next three years so you don't really care, it never feels good to go into a trade and suddenly see it go 20% against you. So it always feels better to be on the front foot to wait for a correction, wait for that sharp 20% sell-off, then put your money in. Get your ducks all lined up in a row, get the cash ready to allocate, wait patiently for a correction. And most people have a bit of Bitcoin now while many people have been following me. So that's OK-- you got a cool position, so wait for the opportunity to be on the front foot not the back foot. Because buying screaming highs might work out for a while. But if you get it wrong, suddenly it's in your face very quickly. ALL I KNOW IS FRANK JUST GOT HIS MONEY'S WORTH FOR A WHOLE YEAR OF REAL VISION PRICING. GIVE RAOUAL IS FREAKING DUE, BTC TOPED OFF YESTERDAY AT $19,605 ON THE FUTURES AND CLOSED TODAY AT $16,995. 20% DOWN FROM THE HIGH IS $15,924 FYI. I'D SAY WE ARE ON PACE TO HIT THAT NEXT WEEK OR SO.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      28 November 2020 @ 15:04
      Thanks!
  • BA
    BURHANUDDIN A.
    28 November 2020 @ 07:11
    I could be wrong but I have a vague memory of a Janet Yellen interview from either Q2 or Q3 this year where she advocated the Fed buying equities, as many other central banks around the world were legalized to do so.
  • sp
    spencer p.
    28 November 2020 @ 06:56
    great chat fellas. wondering why nobody is talking about this big bad dollar? sitting at a pivotal point. https://www.tradingview.com/x/WeCTnh0l/ id expect a pop upwards in dollar to correct the S&P on this massive megaphone as well. thoughts? https://www.tradingview.com/x/ZQPDVaRX/
  • DK
    David K.
    28 November 2020 @ 00:58
    Ed, there is an Independent Party. So, do you belong to that party or are you unaffiliated?
    • EH
      Edward H. | Real Vision
      28 November 2020 @ 04:28
      Unaffiliated
  • SS
    Steven S.
    28 November 2020 @ 02:45
    As always, excellent piece, Ed and Ash. Much appreciated.
  • GF
    Gordon F.
    28 November 2020 @ 01:39
    I noticed something odd about the spread between Bitcoin and GBTC. GBTC touched a high Tuesday morning (Nov 24) of 24.06, and then closed Wednesday afternoon, 4:00 p.m. EST at $20.72, down 16%. Over the same time span, Bitcoin traded only slightly down, about 2.5%. But then at 9:00 p.m. Wednesday night the bottom dropped out from under Bitcoin and in the next 19 hours it dropped by nearly 15%, marking its bottom at 2:00 p.m. EST on Thanksgiving day. I'm not sure which was the cart and which was the horse, but it sure looks to me like someone holding GBTC knew Bitcoin was about to take a spill and sold a large position before the market closed. And over the two trading days, about 40 million GBTC traded, roughly equivalent to 40,000 bitcoin, without moving the Bitcoin market much. GBTC = Greyscale Bitcoin Trust. 1000 GBTC = 1 Bitcoin (approximately). I hold it in my IRA as the only practical way to get exposure in an IRA. The premium to Bitcoin varies, but not normally in this manner. Any thoughts or comments?
    • CB
      Clifford B.
      28 November 2020 @ 02:03
      Read articles below. U can arbitrage the fk out of btc/gbtc all day long. not sure if yall can read this: https://themacrotourist.substack.com/p/gbtc-trust-the-everymans-arb. summary: go here https://grayscale.co/startinvesting/ to buy shares of GBTC that u will receive 6 months from now, for a 20% discount from current GBTC prices. If you want to arb it to guarantee profit, you can short GBTC now against the long. Otherwise, you are stuck long 6 months from a price 20% below current prices.. https://adventuresincapitalism.com/2020/11/24/why-this-reflexive-ponzi-scheme-will-continue/
  • BS
    Benjamin S.
    28 November 2020 @ 01:37
    Superb! Always love the banter between these two class acts. Thanks for showing up for the half day session and putting in the work to deliver another excellent RVDB.
  • BK
    Binyam K.
    28 November 2020 @ 01:32
    Thanks Ed and Ash. Have a great weekend.
  • SN
    Shmuel N.
    28 November 2020 @ 00:39
    So funny how you guys become so bullish at the market high. I was betting against your bear view all the way up. Shorted the small-cap today.
  • MJ
    Marcus J.
    27 November 2020 @ 23:46
    Trumpy will go down to Georgia and tell his fans that the voting machines have been fixed, "believe me", and the Dems will try to cut through working class concerns about voter fraud and the "extreme socialist agenda" by aiming directly at their wallets. "Would you accept a $10,000 cheque from a black trans gender lesbian communist sir?". It should be a hilarious spectacle, I can't wait. If I had to bet, (I am betting), I would say money talks. My inflation hedges are quivering with excitement.