Published on: February 6th, 2020 • Duration: 37 minutes
Since last time Danielle DiMartino Booth sat down with her friend and confidante George Goncalves in September, repo mania raged, and their prescient predictions for how the Fed would react to unforeseen stresses to the monetary system have seemed to come true one-by-one. Today, they resurvey the monetary landscape and debate the potential endgame scenarios for Fed policy. Will "not QE" give way to a standing repo facility or a truer form of QE that central bankers will not be able to deny? The insiders lay out three distinct scenarios for Fed policy, the soft landing, that Powell and the Fed desperately want, the base case — which is perhaps the most likely, and a worst-case scenario where factors like coronavirus could trigger recession in Germany and the US. Filmed on January 29, 2020 in New York.
Danielle and George have also co-authored a report to accompany this interview which can be found here: https://www.realvision.com/paving-the-path-of-most-resistance.