Comments
Transcript
-
LOTranscript / captions please?
-
WMComments on gold were a little surprising. Difficult to see gold falling to anywhere close to 1400 in the current environment BUT that "handle or the cup" looks as if it could easily fall to 1700. My Swiss advisor group note that gold need to get over 1960 to strong suggest a major rise. They are clear that real support for gold starts around 1710 BUT could go as low as 1600. I am also following Michael Oliver closely on this. He seems highly confident that gold is going to vault higher but can see a "violent flush out" below 1760 down to as far as the 1680 area according to his excellent data. However we also appeared (2/20) to have exceeded the latest weekly closing level that Oliver believes could signal the next leg up. I am watching v.closely since if gold falters again here in the next week or two I will sell down my GDX/GDXJ positions by 50%.
-
SHI appreciate this format where Julian does a separate Q&A, gives me a chance to watch and process the previous video before diving into more depth via q&a.
-
JWJulian toying with the idea that gold could easily drop to $1300-1400, and saying that at that level it would maybe – but only maybe – be a buy, was not exactly something I liked to hear. But when someone you admire very much says something you really, really don’t’ want to hear, you are forced to listen. This will likely have a major impact on my invtesment/trading strategy. I would have liked to have an update on Julian’s view on TIPS (previously he has mentioned TIPS as the only kind of bonds he would want to own). But following the logic from this interview, I assume they could also face a rough time short-term.
-
TMCan we get the transcript, please?
-
MWBrilliant as usual! Somehow I think Julian lean a little towards the optimistic side. Stock markets will not be allowed to decline 20%. If the decline is above 10%, the Fed will throw the kitchen sink at the market. Once it touches 15%, the Feb will purchase SPY (and IWM).
-
LOCaptions please - very much appreciated!
-
DdPlease give us more of these sessions! 🙏
-
JGJulian and Max, The inflation/deflation discussion is of course crucial to any investment decision. One point I believe has been given to little attention is the distribution of income between labour and capital. With the new US administration coming in we should expect a swing towards labour, and in particular towards the low income percentile, in the distribution of national income. Since the propensity to spend is higher among the low income percentile this would drive overall demand rapidly, quite possibly more than a covid damaged economy could deliver. At the same time capital would take home less of the total national income, stifling capital formation, productivity and capacity build. This could go on for many years and be secular rather than cyclical in my opinion. Combine this with an economy that needs to combat climate change and build new infrastructure in the whole energy sector, one of the biggest in the economy, and I suspect these factors could give both cost pressure and pricing power in large parts of the economy, creating powerful inflationary forces for the next decade, maybe overpowering the long term deflatinary effect of demographics for quite a while. I also suspect this would increase the velocity of money. Such an outcome would suit the administration and the Fed well, as it would be reflationary, and combine well with YCC? Appreciate any thoughts and comments. Thanks
-
BAThanks Julian. Your comments are always valued and appreciated.