Ask Me Anything with Raoul – April 10, 2020 (LIVE)

Published on
April 10th, 2020
Duration
61 minutes

Comments

Transcript

  • JK
    James K.
    21 April 2020 @ 02:35
    Thanks for the update Raul....
  • JW
    JW2 W.
    14 April 2020 @ 14:58
    Does anyone have a view on why ZNM0 (10Tr T Note future) is jumping up and down like a yoyo?
    • jl
      john l.
      14 April 2020 @ 20:38
      One possible reason could be that traders know the Fed is in the market buying Treasuries and are acting accordingly by buying and selling in a range knowing the Fed will just keep buying. Another could be entities needing dollars and just keep selling and Fed keeps buying. Another could be market just really don’t know which way to go right now with the “liquidity is everything” vs the “mother of a recession “ groups. Or, actually, probably just the multifactorial... humans are complex, stupid, and smart.
    • JW
      JW2 W.
      15 April 2020 @ 06:48
      Thanks John. Your response makes a lot of sense. I was thinking of holding for another couple of weeks, but given the somewhat crazy dynamics I am leaning towards taking profit and moving on (trying to be 'smart :-). What is your thinking (assuming you bought some) ?
    • jl
      john l.
      16 April 2020 @ 05:56
      Yes I am in the trade as per when Raoul recently suggested it. It never hurts to take some profit off the table. I am in the camp thinking/hoping that another significant leg down in equities is coming any day now or in the next couple of weeks. With treasury yields going down. My plan is to pick levels of different yields to start scaling out with profits and try to stick to the plan and not be too emotional. Of course saying I am not going to be emotional is easier than doing. Especially those times when you think you can ride it for just a little longer and squeeze that last drop out only to see it move against you at the last second and then you have to do the face slap “Doh!”. Good luck. ; )
    • jl
      john l.
      16 April 2020 @ 06:11
      Oh, and even with the scenario I describe above there is again the risk of liquidity issues with treasury yields backing up like what happened in March. Theoretically even with the Fed in the market distorting price discovery and trying to suppress volatility (their always ongoing both supposed “help” and side effect/damage in my opinion). So just more of talking myself into taking some profits now/soon and letting some ride to see what happens.
    • JW
      JW2 W.
      16 April 2020 @ 14:01
      The issue we have is that the 'base case' is in tact and in fact it is strengthening (lower rates, more economic uncertainty, supply/demand shocks, more QE, etc) but this instrument is behaving very unpredictably with wild swings. This does not instill confidence in the trajectory :-) - partial profit taking and letting a smaller piece run is probably a good practice. The greed factor is the one to fight :-)
  • MJ
    Matthew J.
    16 April 2020 @ 12:59
    Thanks for the AMA talk Raoul. Feedback wise, I feel a few topics had been covered a lot before and questions need changing up. Perhaps some people haven't seen your other content, ED as an example and the GMI covid reports. Aside from that as always I get a lot from how you explain things. There are a few topics additonally that I have been following thanks to RV. Two recent videos on Oil and Uranium, additionally Dr Copper. From Warren Pies today, great advice as usual along with Roger Hirst in today's Daily Breifing, it seems WTI is testing it's lows with fundamentals looking to test lower. Plus long tankers, Julian said to add them as WTI heads down. Also long Uranium stocks from Arthur Hyde. Copper to roll over if Chinese buying fades? What are your thoughts on these plays right now, are you currently in them, is the timing right to make these trades? I am considering dipping my toes in. All comments and thoughts welcome. 😊
  • SD
    S D.
    16 April 2020 @ 04:25
    Prefer a different format, Raoul direct. The Raoul and Julien content continues to be excellent. Very helpful.
  • YO
    Yoshitaka O.
    16 April 2020 @ 04:00
    I put in 5 questions but none of them were shortlisted for the AMA. By any chance they (or a few of them at least) could be answered here by Harry?
  • GM
    Gary M.
    15 April 2020 @ 22:26
    Hi Raoul and Max another great session. Some really good questions as always. Keep up the great work.
  • MT
    Max T.
    15 April 2020 @ 11:44
    A late question - but how do you structure the trade of currencies versus Gold?
  • GL
    G L.
    15 April 2020 @ 10:25
    Invaluable insights as always! Thank you for this live session and for being on top of things during this very fluid market.
  • BP
    Barry P.
    14 April 2020 @ 23:44
    Thanks Raoul, know it’s probably frustrating, but just listening to you for an hour (and same with Julian) helps to fill in the overall narrative...Cheers
  • HC
    Hahns C.
    14 April 2020 @ 21:41
    I am a Pro member but missed the presentation. In my opinion China is uncomfortable close to Italy. Do you think that China will come to the rescue of certain weaker European countries, thereby expanding their hegemony? Is there a large scale trade in the near future with the forecast of insolvencies in the future?
  • jl
    john l.
    14 April 2020 @ 20:40
    Excellent production and content. At the end I said to myself, This service is worth paying for.
  • YR
    Yael R.
    14 April 2020 @ 13:58
    My husband and I recently purchased a Pro account with you and we love your website! We have a question regarding our 401(k) with Morgan Stanley. We recently discovered that we can withdraw our funds without paying any tax penalties. What do you recommend doing with 401(k)s that are primarily invested in equities? Should we withdraw everything (or a portion) and invest in gold/bitcoin/something else? Thanks so much for your wonderful service!
    • JW
      JW2 W.
      14 April 2020 @ 18:18
      Very tricky to provide an answer here as these are your personal finances and without knowing anything about your background, risk profile etc etc etc (and this is certainly not the place to share this :-) I would say that whatever you decide, pls make sure to create a multi-asset allocation. Gold, Metals, US Treasury Bonds, Bitcoin, Cash, and some dividend stocks in solid business that you like and researched. What percentages you allocate is up to you and researching RV will give you an idea as to what 'the experts' are saying. Personally I have drastically reduced the stock part of my portfolio in favor of cash, BTC and (precious) Metals. But this may not be for everyone. The answers can be found here on RV so enjoy going thru the content.