Comments
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RWQuality near movie quality video. Much better
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DEHi Raoul, what are your thoughts on GDX breaking above $32 today? I believe you mentioned that you were looking for these levels to be reached before you'd consider going heavy into a position here. Would love to know more of your strategy and what you are doing here.
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SKRaoul, thanks for the update. Is it true that the oil storage is still not full but there is no storage for lease available? Is there any model/data set to predict how long this oil glut will continue? Thanks
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ABIs there a 'Petrodollar' system without the 'Petro' ?
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MJRaoul, many thanks yet again for the update. Oil an indicator. Wave 4/5 or straight to Insolvency Phase? I may be bringing the narrative to a excessively short time scale, however: On today's (21st Apr) Daily Briefing discussing oil as the leading indicator of the real economy and the market coming down to meet the real economy in due course physical first (thanks for the tweet), Ed Harrison said with regards to the Insolvency Phase, "that is where we are going right now, oil is telling you that we are there, yesterday marked the day". - Liquidity Phase - Has the Fed cut short the liquidity phase (so no wave 5)? - Making this 'wave 4' rally the Hope Phase? - Is shear demand destruction going cut short the Hope Phase . - So perhaps we get a super compressed 1929 cycle hope phase, heading straight into insolvency due to the extent of the situation. - The Fed Can't save everyone etc. How does that sit with what you are seeing? P.S. Constantly amazed by the quality, timing and delivery of key topics and perspectives by yourself and your highly talented team.
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MBWhy specifically would oil producers still pump like mad at loss-making prices? Explain more on this...?
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LHI believe that the negative oil price situation will reverberate in the mind of many persons and will make them question if the shares they own will actually have any meaningful value. That may be a turning point (for the worst) in the current crisis.
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MDThanks for the timely update Raoul
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WWWhat is the risk or opportunity of seeing similar dislocations in other future markets? There have been rumblings surrounding the GLD ETF for a while now, and with disruptions in the physical metal market could it be possible that long future contract holders would actually want to take delivery of the metal, thus leaving shorts scrambling to find physical gold to deliver?
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HJThank you Raoul for your timely thoughts and your big picture thinking. I am a new subscriber, and a "little guy" from an investor aspect. Your service is invaluable to me! Thanks again
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MCis this a trade recommendation which will appear in the portfolio?
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BDRaoul any thoughts if Russia in particular could start to liquidate its large gold holdings to cover their shortfalls from Oil revenue. Happy to be shown different data but i see them as the 5th largest holder with just over 2200 tonnes then Saudi at 17th with another 320 tonnes.
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SSRaoul. Tanker stocks a good buy now? It sounds too good to be true?
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JMThanks for the update. Off topic question: starting a position in BTC and wanted to know if there's a preferred platform?
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DBThanks, Raoul! I'm all-in on your framework, but am also always wary of echo chamber effects. Is there a credible bull you would be interested in debating for us? A real debate, not an interview. Having Mike Green on was great but he has a very particular thesis, and it wasn't a debate. Maybe @DaveHcontrarian? Thanks for everything you do!
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RAThanks for the update Raoul. Audio was fantastic and the Video was really much improved lighting, clarity and color wise! Whatever you have managed to do is a HUGE improvement....can’t wait to see if it carries forward to your Daily Briefings, et, al. BTW, you have to be really proud of what your team is doing on the Daily Briefings....ED, Roger and Ash have just been killing it and the DB has been exceptionally well received. One final note...having been with RV almost since inception and having seen the various “stutter steps” to refining the offerings, platforms and billings for same I think the “Essential”, “Plus” and “Pro” offerings have resulted in an easy to understand Product offering that fits all the levels and needs of we RV’ers.
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AHThanks for the update Raoul.
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JMHi Raoul, while the economic narrative seems really bleak, the FED and US government also seem very willing to to support the economy through fiscal and monetary policies. In particular, I have been watching LQD and HYG, both being very flat recently. Regardless of the real economy story, I see potentially 2 outcomes: 1) QE, money printing and fiscal policy successfully hold the credit market from not collapsing. In this case, I think equity is still going hold and we might eventually see inflation. 2) US fails to hold and we have continuous deflation Looks like you are heavily leaning toward position 2) above. Why do you think 1) is not really attainable? Also, are bitcoin and gold going to do well in both of the above scenarios?
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GPRaoul- With the perfect storm of oil prices so low, continuing sanctions, and a huge CoVid problem relentlessly crushing Iran what are the chances that Iran just lashes out with extreme action and even war.??
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DVThoughts on EWW trade? Realize there's a difference between short and long term strategies for Julian and Raoul but like everything in this crash SPEED
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DWGreat perspective. I don’t expect the equity market to roll over until there’s a squeeze on most of the SP500 shorts. I think it could go all the way to new highs if that’s what it takes to get the shorts to capitulate. Never underestimate the power of the plunge protection team to take the market higher than what would be considered rational by conventional measures, Shorting the SP500 is rarely easy, that’s why it remains the “vanity trade”
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MCAs usual Raoul you transform chaos into coherence, Thank you. Just wondering if it makes sense and is it possible to dig a little deeper into the Policy response (and transmssion mechanisms) to the crisis. Policy is in a huge tug of war with growth and (dis)inflation while market narratives lurch between two extreme outcomes. Measuring the ongoing success or failure of targeted policy initiatives would be helpful in understanding how these swinging market narratives oscilate around reality. And it may also give us some insight into what to expect from future policy initiatives (if we are looking at the same things policy makers are lookig at we can anticipate their next move).
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RSHi Raoul Awesome as ever mate!! One question Though, can the fed print enough dollars to prevent USD from rising? Thanks Ravi
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WMLike someone below, I have been in the oil business since 1978 and today is at once, both shocking and yet totally understandable. I wonder how many oil shorts just made several years worth of earnings today. Why is it I have this gnawing worry in my gut that 2020 is going to go down as the year the Western financial system collapsed.......it started slowly at first and then happened all at once? It just feels like over the next few weeks we are going to see additional trillions upon trillions of dollars being created. My very average mind is wondering at the magnitude of the impact on everything, and all of us.
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BJRaoul, I could honestly see the government stepping in as the buyer of last resort to bail these guys out and just burning it. Is that even possible? If all the storage space is gone you either turn the well off or...?
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MLMany thanks Raoul! Appreciate your insights as always!
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BJThanks. Much appreciated today.
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JWFantastic customer service, thanks. I find the divergence between the real economy and the financial economy both fascinating and worrisome. I hope the fabric of society holds.
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JPAs a newer subscriber, can't say how much I appreciate these one-off flash updates. Thanks!
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MZRaoul u and Julian need to get everyone in this tanker trade. Harris kupperman did a rv interview on this. All this oil is going to tankers and rates exploding. Up 15 percent today. Printing money faster then the fed
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jeR: I've been in the oil and gas industry since 1980. I remember well January of 1986 when we opened a new E&P office only to be greeted by $9.75/bbl two months later. I've been through every oil/Rec shock since and thought I had seen it all. Here is a new term for you (to describe being invested in oil, real estate and frac sand in the Permian): "the Texas Hedge". Another way of saying it is, "you're F'd". Only good news is I have no debt, cash/btc/gold and an early subscription to RVTV. You nailed it. Did you ever think your single digit oil call would be high? I'm afraid, by the time we are past CV, every industry will be able to say, "wow, I've never seen that before". None of us have. Fortunately, you saw it in your mind. Thank you for your service.
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NRThanks Raoul.
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YAThe man! Thx
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MSThanks for the update Raoul.