Flash Update – March 20, 2020

Published on
March 20th, 2020
Duration
23 minutes


Flash Update – March 20, 2020

Insider Talks ·
Featuring Julian Brigden

Published on: March 20th, 2020 • Duration: 23 minutes

Julian Brigden returns in this flash update to survey the market and macro landscapes, walk viewers through the trade recommendations they should begin to take profits on, and get you thinking about the tradeable and long-term securities to keep on your watch list. Julian also references a report on the coronavirus outbreak by the University of Maryland School of Medicine that can be found here: https://www.umaryland.edu/news/archived-news/march-2020/researchers-predict-potential-spread-and-seasonality-for-covid-19-.php

Comments

  • RH
    Rob H.
    5 April 2020 @ 13:02
    COVID-19 Update Tulare Co Cal. April 4, 2020 as of 12:36:37 PM PDT 107 - Total positive cases 17 - Travelers 64 - Person to Person/Contact 26 - Unknown/Under Investigation 5 - Recovered Cases 5 - Deaths 219 - Under self-quarantine and being monitored by Tulare County Public Health officials
  • RH
    Rob H.
    29 March 2020 @ 02:29
    This is from Tulare Co - CA - Sad to say we got our first reported death today. It was cool and wet last week, most of the week we had highs in the mid-'60s - It will be warming up this week and will be 80 by next Sunday, I'm hoping this will help. . March 28, 2020 as of 3:17:55 PM PDT 29 - Total positive cases 15 - Travelers 7 - Person to Person/Contact 7 - Unknown/Under Investigation 1 - Recovered Cases 1 - Deaths 124 - Under self-quarantine and being monitored by Tulare County Public Health officials. Age Groups 1 - Ages 0 - 17 5 - Ages 18 - 25 11 - Ages 26 - 40 3 - Ages 41 - 64 9 - Ages 65+ Source. https://tchhsa.org/eng/index.cfm/public-health/covid-19-updates-novel-coronavirus/
  • RG
    Razmig G.
    26 March 2020 @ 08:56
    Las Vegas here: no 'break out' here yet. There are few cases. The big hospital that I very well know t is calm still. Even calmer than usual.
    • RG
      Razmig G.
      26 March 2020 @ 08:58
      Qualities of the weather that stand out: Dry & Heat. It's still getting there heat wise. ALSO: I'm flabbergasted why NO ONE is paying attention to the effect of a population of density of a city to the spread of the virus. NYC vs any other city is a great case in point.
  • BK
    Bruce K.
    25 March 2020 @ 00:50
    These episodic updates are INVALUABLE, thank you Raoul and Julian! Especially insightful to see you "play out" your thought process with each other. Great stuff in these unprecedented times.
  • OT
    Omar T.
    20 March 2020 @ 22:32
    Virus is not done until we have a vaccine or heard immunity (about 80% of population gets it), If it is heat dependent, it means it fizzles in the summer but can come back in the fall and winter. Julian, are you recommending Raoul's dollar trade or not? it is unclear from the video as it seems you hope it doesn't happen.
    • JB
      Julian B. | Contributor
      21 March 2020 @ 20:03
      I would not press $ long trades here. As I said I want to see if the Fed's swap lines can make any difference.
    • AP
      ANTHONY P.
      25 March 2020 @ 00:31
      @Julian thank you for the follow-up.
  • AS
    Arpat S.
    25 March 2020 @ 00:22
    Reporting from Miami, Florida. Spoke to a nurse a week ago and she said they are prepared but are not seeing any surge in cases. It might be different this week, will try to update again.
  • MP
    Mark P.
    24 March 2020 @ 20:20
    Surgeon here in Napa/ SF Bay Area in very large medical group with largest # C19 cases in US. Santa Clara and San Jose (Silicon Valley) and Oakland hospitals filling up fast despite rapidly expanding ICU and floor beds, but not yet full capacity. Other hospitals with smaller number of patients. We are preparing for surge of cases in next couple weeks well beyond even expanded capacity. Critical shortage of PPEs a huge concern. All elective surgery stopped last week. Only life threatening surgery currently and 90% clinic visits virtual. Unprecedented! Mark in Napa
  • GP
    Geoff P.
    24 March 2020 @ 17:24
    any thoughts on all the new hires in retail? tia
  • JA
    Joseph A.
    22 March 2020 @ 12:11
    I’m losing track of the trade recommendations. Flash updates are handy but I think you need to start updating the trade portfolio document much more regularly so there is one centralised location to see all the current trade recommendations in one place for both Julian and Raoul including whatever is in flash updates. Especially important in fast moving markets as everyone has their eyeballs in so many different places looking at many different data points such as right now.
    • JB
      Julian B. | Contributor
      22 March 2020 @ 20:07
      I'll pass the comments on and get the portfolio updated
    • MB
      Michael B.
      22 March 2020 @ 21:47
      agree ^
    • AP
      ANTHONY P.
      24 March 2020 @ 14:31
      I'm with Raoul who is sticking with it. This is from his Twitter feed today: Alex Martell @BAMartelly · 10h @RaoulGMI are you still max long dollars? Quote Tweet Raoul Pal @RaoulGMI · Mar 18 The Dollar and Bitcoin is all I got right now. Im adding to bitcoin and Im max long dollars (vs EUR,GBP, AUD, BRL, MXN, KRW, CNY, JPY). Good luck. This is not a drill. Show this thread Raoul Pal @RaoulGMI Replying to @BAMartelly Yes, absolutely. 4:16 AM · Mar 24, 2020
    • RK
      Robert K.
      24 March 2020 @ 15:57
      Thank you for sharing, Anthony. Question to whoever can answer: "max long dollars" - what is the meaning of this in the context of options for example, Sept '20, Jan '21?
  • Ev
    Emiel v.
    21 March 2020 @ 21:54
    Thanks for this update Julian!! As a fairly new RV subscriber, I have a hard time grasping the EuroDollar shortage concept. Anyone have a good explanation video out there? Maybe it’s because I’m influenced by the popular view of most gold bugs. By being taught the opposite view, it is quite hard to have this shift in beliefs. Classical goldbugs believe that QE will weaken the USD. Until the point of collapse. However even in GFC we have seen that USD is continuing the long term uptrend against the Euro. By subscribing to RV I ‘ve learned about the strong dollar from Raoul and Brent Johnson. Thanks to them, bit’s and pieces start falling together from a presentation by Diederick Schmull which I attended last year. https://youtu.be/R8t3lp02Mu0 Yet I still have to understand it fully. Yes, there is a shortage in dollar liquidity. When the Fed is printing, why wouldn't that minimize the shortage? The political powers are advocating for a weaker dollar, which is good for the export industry. For what its worth, Trump was even advocating it. Which tools do they have at their disposal to weaken the dollar? The views of the gold bugs can still be valid, the gold price can move higher. Yet that seems to be applicable later on in the cycle, after the sell off. Is there any good source to learn more about (Kondartieff’s) cycles? It seems that could be an interesting roadmap. https://twitter.com/HenrikZeberg/status/1147408776208756736?s=20 On the topic of FX plays. What is Raoul’s outlook on the Chinese Yuan against the USD? There is so much information on RV. And things are changing rather quickly. Where to start? I would love to see a macro trend crash course, to get my knowledge up to speed. To be able to see what lies in the waters ahead.
    • JB
      Julian B. | Contributor
      22 March 2020 @ 00:29
      Hi Emiel. As you know this is a vast topic. So don't beat yourself up, because it appears you have a pretty solid grasp. However, you have one clear question in the comments above, which I will try and address: "Yes, there is a shortage in dollar liquidity. When the Fed is printing, why wouldn't that minimize the shortage?" The answer in the short term is essentially plumbing. Don't forget because dollar is the reserve currency their is constant foreigners demand. Some of that demand is satisfied by flows from the US current account deficit. But most of it is borrowed and some especially to finance portfolio assets, via the FX market ie foreigners lend their currency to borrow dollars. Most of the time, this process works perfectly. Until there's a wobble and financing gets tight. Now, in the good old days, pre the Global Financial Crisis even then, most wobbles wouldn't develop into full blown funding crises. That's because as $ liquidity squeeze overseas, the big US banks would step in. They would simply leverage up their balance sheet and lend to foreigners arbitraging between super cheap domestic $ rates and expensive overseas $ rates. Unfortunately, regulatory changes since 08/09 mean that just isn't possible to anywhere close to the same degree. The plumbing is broken. So even if the Fed is doing QE, the pipes aren't there to get the cash to the overseas borrowers who need it. The US banks can't intermediate the transaction. The result is that to the extent that foreigners have borrowed the dollars via FX swaps; they are forced to sell their $ assets and selling their currency to buy dollars to pay back the swap. Hence, the dollar rises, as assets fall creating a vicious circle aka the napalm run. The only hope is that the Fed can disintermediate the US banks and lend dollars directly to their peers at the BoJ, ECB etc. Hence their activation of the swap lines. Who in term can lend those dollars to their own domestic institutions. Fingers crossed it works!
    • KJ
      Kevin J.
      22 March 2020 @ 02:00
      Thank you for taking the time to write such a detailed response, Julian.
    • Ev
      Emiel v.
      22 March 2020 @ 15:04
      Thanks Julian for the very clear explanation! Really admire that the RV team is so accessible to answer subscriber questions.
    • RA
      Robert A.
      23 March 2020 @ 00:12
      Excellent cogent response Julian, much appreciated. Nice that you were able to pick that one bit out of Emiel’s question. It is this “curation” factor that RV is famous for that is invaluable. It’s an art form Julian to size up your audience and be able to give us the answer to our most salient question. Truly great effort there Julian.
    • AA
      Alberto A.
      24 March 2020 @ 03:05
      Great explanation of the napalm run! please please have a debate about the dollar with Raoul in the next insiders call....I saw your video the minute it went out and now again a refresher!!
  • JW
    Jim W.
    23 March 2020 @ 14:06
    Julian, I've been speaking with either friends or friends of friends who are nurses, and here is what I have gotten: 1-Tokyo (where I live): Things are slow, according to a couple of the nurses I've talked to (while they do elective normally, have not been mobilized for ICU). We've had a warm, wet winter--if it wasn't 15-20C (and clear) then it was rainy. 2-Bay area seems to be blowing up, according to the nurses and nurse practitioners (again, friend of friend) there. Microclimates influencing things, lack of sunlight, or something else? Dunno. For those who are skeptical about the temperature effect, the most recent paper I have seen points to both temperature and humidity, at https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3551767 YMMV.
    • JB
      Julian B. | Contributor
      23 March 2020 @ 22:36
      Jim many thanks for this!
  • JK
    James K.
    22 March 2020 @ 12:39
    Has anyone read any particularly good accounts of the Weimar Republic? Or any of the other hyperinflation stories? I would like to develop an understanding of what happened there in order to watch for signposts as we transition from deflation to whatever comes next. Thanks!
    • CS
      C S.
      22 March 2020 @ 13:55
      The Death of Money - can be found online
    • JK
      James K.
      22 March 2020 @ 15:41
      Thank you. I’ll check it out.
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      22 March 2020 @ 21:56
      Liaquat Ahamed's Lords of Finance has quite a bit on it. And a generally good read.
    • AM
      A M.
      23 March 2020 @ 20:18
      Dying of Money by Jens Parson When Money Dies by Adam Ferguson
  • MP
    Marc P.
    22 March 2020 @ 16:33
    Are you still long dollar? Or is it not worth the risk/reward now? I am in UUP still.
    • MP
      Marc P.
      22 March 2020 @ 16:43
      Already read your answers below 👌🏽
    • WM
      Will M.
      22 March 2020 @ 16:54
      I am certain Raoul will tell us the minute he feels the risk reward for UUP has flipped.
    • JB
      Julian B. | Contributor
      23 March 2020 @ 14:51
      I wasn't long UUP Marc
    • RK
      Robert K.
      23 March 2020 @ 14:58
      UUP calls really taking a beating now the last couple days...
  • DD
    Derek D.
    23 March 2020 @ 12:53
    We desperately need app notifications for new posts.
  • AD
    Anthony D.
    22 March 2020 @ 04:19
    Julian, wonderful video. Some sense of hope was refreshing. What do you think of long dated calls on SLV? Jan '21? They are pretty cheap.
    • JL
      J L.
      22 March 2020 @ 06:41
      I've been going out to Jan22 on SLV leaps and planning to double the position soon, think 22s are more mispriced than 21s as it is a longer term story
    • JL
      J L.
      22 March 2020 @ 06:42
      you also get 2 years to collect back some of the heavy premium selling covered calls when you think it's time
    • JB
      Julian B. | Contributor
      22 March 2020 @ 20:12
      I like The long dated call idea
    • VA
      Vikram A.
      23 March 2020 @ 01:16
      What are you using for the strike price for that call option? thanks
    • AD
      Anthony D.
      23 March 2020 @ 03:36
      I bought Jan '21 C17 at the time they were <$1
  • RH
    Rob H.
    22 March 2020 @ 15:56
    Hi Julian great update as usual. I see that there is a lot of confusion on your dollar position and Raoul‘s dollar position. I’ve been with you guys for a while now and I understand that you don’t always agree and I see it as a good thing, I like the fact that you have a more tactical trading approach and Raoul tends to be more long-term in general. I took one look at Raoul’s short GBP trade and at the current extreme I couldn’t get my head around this trade, yet I have traded it short term to the downside on daily upside extremes and it’s worked out well. Yet, I have not held a leveraged position short more than a few hours. I was glad to see your update today and your position lined up with my views that we are at extremes now on the dollar trade. I have my own framework, you have your own framework, and Raul has his, that’s the way it should be. The trade recommendations are great but I am here more to learn from both of your processes so I can fine tune my own process, to me that’s what it’s all about. I have to manage my own risk and trade my own personality. I live in Central CA COVID update we had 3 cases on Monday of last week, we now have 12 as of Sunday March 22, 2020. It’s been in the low 60’s most of the week here. Hopefully it starts to warm up and we see cases start to slow if it’s weather dependent, this is a rural area, we all drive and not many use public transportation so maybe this will help keep transmission low as well.
    • JB
      Julian B. | Contributor
      22 March 2020 @ 20:06
      Rob thanks for the information on CA. Yes weather is going to be key. As for the focus on the process I will take that to heart and see if we can address it when the dust settles a bit!
    • RH
      Rob H.
      23 March 2020 @ 02:05
      Thanks, for the reply. You work your tail off for your subscribers and listen to us. I can't thank you enough. I will post the COVID-19 update next week for my county. I use haystack.tv to source local channels all over the US I find it very useful.
  • JL
    J L.
    22 March 2020 @ 07:47
    Hi Julian when you say we won't see yields higher for a while what time frame are you talking about here? As I understand eventually you see nominal yields (but not real) going higher over the next 5 year+?
    • JB
      Julian B. | Contributor
      22 March 2020 @ 20:11
      Hi JL I think we are entering a period of extended financial repression ie very low real yields. This is necessary because fiscal deficits are going to blow out and to fund them central banks are going to cap bond yields via QE and YCC. That doesn't mean nominal yields won't rise, my bet is they will somewhat but not enough.
  • KJ
    Kevin J.
    22 March 2020 @ 00:51
    Thank you, Julian, and Raoul for your consistent updates. I'm more pessimistic than both you and Raoul about the virus. I think the contagion, the quarantines, and the accompanying economic downturn will last at least until December and perhaps even into 2021. 1) I'm not sure if the virus really has a strong seasonal dependence. It still spreads very quickly in Singapore and Hong Kong and the 2nd most infected Chinese province is the southern province of Guangdong. All of these are tropical environments. Here's an interactive map of Covid-19 infections from the Univ. of Washington: https://hgis.uw.edu/virus/ There's still a reasonable amount of sub-tropical and tropical countries with a large amount of cases. The lack of outbreaks in tropical countries might be due to measurement bias and demographics. Countries near the equator tend to have poorer healthcare systems, less resources for mass testing, and younger populations. So that may explain the lack of cases so far. In the next few weeks, I'm thinking we may see an explosion of cases in Brazil, Malaysia, Indonesia, and India. I think the reason why LA hasn't had as big of an outbreak as NYC or Seattle has more to do with population density rather than climate. Even though LA county and NYC have similar population size, LA is extremely spread out and people drive cars more than use public transportation. NYC is dense and public transport is widely used. I'm not sure about Seattle's population density or Florida's population density. 2) I'm also thinking the virus will last pretty much until we get a vaccine (9-18 months) or we all get immunity from being infected. China, Hong Kong, and South Korea have slowed the new case count to a trickle, but once the quarantine is loosened to help the economy, the cases will explode again either from residents or overseas visitors. Then those countries will have to clampdown and hunker down again. There's the possibility that quarantines in non-East Asian countries won't work as effectively. I lived in East Asia for an extended period of time. People there tend to follow government orders more willingly, have more tolerance for heavy-handed government actions, and be more vigilant when it comes to guarding against disease (look at the difference in face mask culture between East Asia and the rest of the world). Meanwhile here in the West, there is a significant minority of young people who are ignoring the shelter-in-place orders. I personally know a few medical students in California that insist on maintaining their Spring Break plans of traveling around the world. Their response when I told them that this is a public health crisis was that "old people can just go hide, why should this interfere with my life?". CAN YOU BELIEVE THAT????????? Here's an article from the WSJ that basically says what I'm saying: https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-generational-war-is-brewing-over-coronavirus-11584437401 This article details how the streets of Hong Kong are coming back to life as young people can't take self-isolation anymore. They want to go hangout with their friends and go to restaurants and clubs. Simultaneously in the past few days, Hong Kong reported an increase in the rate of infection as people started to go back outside again. So I'm thinking the loosening of the quarantine and the rise in the rate of new cases in Hong Kong are causally related. They're going to have to re-tighten quarantine again and keep it that way until we immunize everyone or lose to the virus. Not sure if you agree that this crisis will last for another 9 to 18 months rather than 3 or 6 months, but if so, how does this change our next moves? Sorry for the long read. P.S. Just want to mention that not all young people are this irresponsible. It's a small minority, but even a small minority matters in times like these. I'm doing my best to make them understand the potential consequences of their actions.
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      22 March 2020 @ 01:05
      If we are on lockdown for that length of time, any asset which is not explicitly within the collateral basket provided by the Fed is going to suffer disproportionately. Simply because of the lack of availability of credit.
    • KJ
      Kevin J.
      22 March 2020 @ 02:00
      Thank you for your response, Harry.
    • WM
      Will M.
      22 March 2020 @ 16:50
      I enjoyed your well thought out response Kevin! I appreciate your comment about young people. My youngest daughter is 28 and she is incredibly responsible and heeding the requests.....and not because I told her to.
  • SN
    SAT N.
    20 March 2020 @ 23:15
    At 15:30, Julian seems to suggest the dollar is at "cycle high" and that it could be a "tremendously positive" sign going forward. So I am interpreting that as, Julian is assigning a higher probability for the dollar to move down than up. That is certainly opposite of Raoul's strong conviction that it would move up. Central banks are certainly quite aggressive. If the swap lines they have set up works, then Julian's view might come true. Helpful to hear two different views. Am I interpreting all this correctly?
    • AP
      ANTHONY P.
      21 March 2020 @ 00:46
      Does this other video address your question(s)? It is from Real Vision and appears to have been recorded today. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xNUHHLNDq60
    • SN
      SAT N.
      21 March 2020 @ 07:33
      @anthony Thanks for the link. I didn't know RV posts some videos directly to YTube but not here on the site. Roger's view on dollar in that video is similar to Raoul's. But I like I summarized in my earlier comment, I am not sure if Julian sees this the same way.
    • IB
      Ivan B.
      21 March 2020 @ 09:27
      Hi Satish, I’m confused a bit too. I have noticed after Raoul’s FX recommendations and announcements about swap lines Raoul was asking on Twitter about effectiveness of these swap lines. There was a research done in the past. I guess we have to wait for an update from Raoul on this...
    • SA
      Saad A.
      21 March 2020 @ 13:19
      If you recall, I could be wrong, Raoul in one of his last two flash updates said that this trade is dangerously or risky. Am I making this up or just getting old, may be both.
    • IB
      Ivan B.
      21 March 2020 @ 14:16
      Saad, the truth is in this environment and with this level of volatility any trade is risky. So I’m sure you have heard it correctly. It’s all about managing the risk.
    • SA
      Saad A.
      21 March 2020 @ 14:36
      Well put Ivan!
    • AP
      ANTHONY P.
      21 March 2020 @ 15:27
      I continue to struggle with what seems to me to be significant disagreement between Julian and Raoul's outlook. The trouble might be mine alone, but it seems quite a few people here are confused as well. To me the tension seems significant enough to warrant a joint video with Julian and Raoul for clarification. In the meantime (because forces one to choose), I have chosen to follow the course laid out by Raoul and Roger (as I understand it they seem to agree). I placed my bets on March 19 after Raoul's update. Now through the next month is the time to take risk in the FX trade. The Fed has already opened the swap lines and we survived that that potentially crushing announcement. I'm especially watch what the EUR/USD does at 107. I'm hoping it goes lower, and will consider bailing if it bounces higher. Without knowing whether I am correct, I am taking the seemingly conflicting information from Julian as applicable to a subsequent time period. That's the best way for me to reconcile it. What is everyone else doing/thinking?
    • IB
      Ivan B.
      21 March 2020 @ 16:06
      ANTHONY, it's not the first time Julian and Raoul's views are conflicting. In a way, this is a feature of MI. It's good to have different views to keep yourself in check, for example not to take too much risk in FX, knowing that there's an expert view that it can go against you. Your plan of action make sense to me. I will do the same. I would have taken on more risk if both Julian and Raoul were in an agreement, but will play safe when it's not the case as I am not very experienced in this market environment and with some of the suggested trades.
    • AP
      ANTHONY P.
      21 March 2020 @ 17:20
      Reviewing all of the updates for the last month I'm struck by how quickly things have evolved. Even solely watching Raoul's updates, he'll mention a change that he expects to make in a month or two, but then he'll make that change in a week. Takeaway: things change, stay nimble
    • WM
      Will M.
      22 March 2020 @ 16:37
      I am Long UUP Took a significant position 3 weeks ago and a similar position last week. First one is up healthily second one is break even with the slight pull back end last week. I decided the options were too risky on this for me personally, I will be happy if UUP gains and will add stops if it starts to go higher this week to guarantee some profit.
  • CG
    Craig G.
    22 March 2020 @ 15:53
    The warm weather theory does not seem to hold. It is probably more a function of not testing. As for Florida, this graphic seems to indicate that FL has an atypically high level of illness - https://healthweather.us/
  • AC
    Augusto C.
    20 March 2020 @ 22:41
    How do you feel about leverages etfs like JNUG that track junior gold some silver miners? It has blown up -95% from 93ish to 3.50ish in the past few weeks. With oil so low could the miners see enough of a bump to move the needle here?
    • Dv
      Daniel v.
      21 March 2020 @ 10:06
      Please do not trade those, do some homework on it.
    • JW
      J W.
      21 March 2020 @ 14:45
      This is a triple leveraged ETF. Something goes wrong and your loss accelerates tremendously. Pls be careful with this stuff, especially now.
    • AC
      Augusto C.
      21 March 2020 @ 19:50
      I was looking to put a low percentage of my portfolio into a super high risk play on metals making a comeback, nothing over 5% haha
    • RH
      Rob H.
      22 March 2020 @ 14:59
      I have traded JNUG for year’s, its great when gold volatility is relatively low low but now with gold vol at 37 stay away from this product. It’s not acting right, take a look at GDXJ it should be correlating to that product at three times leverage it is not working , this is due to the volatility in gold. GIV - this is the ticker for gold volatility watch it, it is now starting to come down so we might see a time when JNUG correlation starts to work again. Remember what Raul said you don’t need to take big risks right now with volatility in general being so high you will get out sized gains with in 1X product. Don’t get me wrong I like the juice too but there is a time and place for it. One other thing to note is I’ve seen in the news some other 3X products that have completely blown out, all money lost.
  • RM
    R M.
    21 March 2020 @ 22:31
    Julian: Gold? Didn’t we get stopped out at 1495? What is the plan here?
    • JB
      Julian B. | Contributor
      22 March 2020 @ 00:31
      Yes, we did. But for a nice profit. I want to get back in but per the video, I like silver over gold here because of the utterly extreme level of the ratio and a 55 year high it its RSI.
    • CS
      C S.
      22 March 2020 @ 05:06
      Isnt there a good reason for that, Julian - gold being the monetary metal and the explosion of money printing? It seems, for gold above all, this seems an extraordinary moment.
    • RM
      R M.
      22 March 2020 @ 13:38
      Thanks, Julian!
  • AT
    Anthony T.
    21 March 2020 @ 06:19
    What a massive contrast between Raoul on his RV daily briefing, where the talk is all about more risk, social disruption, no supply, demand or consumption, possible massive further equity downside, no buyers in sight and Julian here talking about preparing for equity purchases, the dollar possibly peaking, central banks bringing on the cavalry at high speed, etc. I’m now confused as to your message. Do you fundamentally disagree? Are you hedging? Clarity please.
    • JW
      J W.
      21 March 2020 @ 07:56
      It was a rather interesting contrast wasn’t it... Plus Raoul sez “Whatever anybody tells you about the economic situation, they're wrong for starters.” :-) It’s probably a good reflection of the current state of the world. There is truth is both positions, look around you, you can see it. To me this still merits sitting on the sidelines and just watching. Don’t do anything rash. If you see an investment opportunity take a small bite rather than a big one. Protect capital rather than anything else. Let’s hope the social fabric of society holds. I see many acts of kindness and resilience. In the short to medium term we should be able to pull though. If this thing lingers for many more months without any light at the end of the tunnel that might change, who knows. Stay safe everyone. Be careful.
    • Dv
      Daniel v.
      21 March 2020 @ 10:01
      I agree!
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      21 March 2020 @ 11:33
      This is the reality - there a number of outcomes here and we can not assess the probabilities so you have to work from your own core framework. I think this is a 6 month or so event, hence my fears. As you know I closed all my equities etc so I am implicitly saying that we are due a longer bounce soon. From that we can re-assess the odds of either a longer, deeper affair, my base case or a one or two quarters affrair - the markets bases case. My trading should hopefully be agnostic until the evidence starts to become clearer.
    • IB
      Ivan B.
      21 March 2020 @ 13:03
      Raoul, I think most of the confusion is with your recent FX recommendations. If I understand it correctly, the announced swap lines are making strong dollar case less convincing/probable? It's just everything happens so fast and most of the people not sure how to react. If you could update on your thinking, that would be great. Even if your answer is "I don't know" it helps to manage risks accordingly. Stay safe everyone!
    • CH
      Charlie H.
      21 March 2020 @ 16:30
      From Brent Johnson of Santiago Capital (Raoul's friend) swap lines are merely loans which in the short term provided liquidity but overall they increase demand - https://twitter.com/SantiagoAuFund/status/1240724923460415489 Julian's take is closer to the market's base case of a shorter term thing and thus the DXY may normalize as well as markets starting to bottom (probably around 2-2100 on SPX). My take on Julian's fears of the DXY going from "napalm" to "nuclear" would mean a much much deeper issue global which would be really bad for humanity. For Raoul's FX trade (long USD) I interpret that as a better risk reward trade/expression (versus say short credit or short equities) of his base case which is something much worse than a quick 2 qtr recession. Reading through Brent's twitter account the long USD trade from here is risky and may be counterintuitive/difficult but has tremendous upside. Good luck to all and be safe out there.
    • JB
      Julian B. | Contributor
      21 March 2020 @ 19:52
      Raoul aren't in disagreement. But as was said below, there are nuances. We both fear a destructive, unconstrained dollar rally. But my point is that central banks are moving far faster than they did in the GFC and that deserves some attention. Will it work? We don't know. Hence my suggestion to watch the price action of currencies like GBP and MXN.
    • AT
      Anthony T.
      22 March 2020 @ 01:22
      Thank you for your replies. Keep up the good work. Its a beautiful sunny Sunday in Sydney and I'm enjoying the sense of calm, even if it is just for a day!
    • IB
      Ivan B.
      22 March 2020 @ 08:01
      Thank you for your clarification Julian, makes perfect sense.
  • MW
    Marco W.
    22 March 2020 @ 07:49
    One of the very few authority in this field, Professor Yuen Kwok-yung in Hong Kong, has said we need to fight until the temperature rises to 25 celsius, ideally above 30 celsius. When looking at data (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries) and comparing Hong Kong, Taiwan (low temperature, strong social distancing, wearing mask) and Singapore, Thailand (high temperature, relatively weak social distancing until last week, not wearing mask), the high temperature is likely to be helpful because the number of cases adjusted for population in latter is not significantly higher than former. At the same time, comparing Japan and UK (constitutional monarchy, no mass testing) or comparing Hong Kong, Taiwan and Italy, Spain, obviously social distancing and wearing mask is very helpful.
    • MW
      Marco W.
      22 March 2020 @ 07:56
      Just to point out after seeing a comment below, majority of the recent cases in Hong Kong and Singapore were imported cases. Majority of all cases in Guangdong China were imported cases from Hubei.
  • SD
    S D.
    21 March 2020 @ 01:30
    I really object to people praising China for managing this situation well. We wouldn't be in this situation if it weren't for China. That first animal to human transmission occurred in October and they covered it up for nearly three months in order to accommodate the party political meeting. China is directly responsible for unleashing what is rapidly turning into a global holocaust, and to allow them to dictate the semantics of that crime by insisting that people call this Covid-19 or some such rather than what it actually is, which is The China Virus, is obscene. It's a blatant attempt by China to evade responsibility, which is especially egregious since it was the same animal-human transmission from the same disgusting live animal/wet markets that caused SARS. China has shown no remorse, and demonstrated no public acknowledgement of its responsibility for mass global death, and as such it no longer deserves a seat at the table of the global community of civilized nations. Because it is not civilized, clearly. Then again, how could it be? Think Xinjiang. If there's one change that has to occur immediately it is the repatriation of all industrial capacity back to the US, most particularly of medical, technological and particularly telecom manufacturing. And when the worst is over, the global community needs to get together and decide how they will punish China for what it's just done.
    • TE
      Timothy E.
      21 March 2020 @ 02:42
      Get off your soapbox
    • SD
      S D.
      21 March 2020 @ 05:20
      Timothy E. Your attitude will change instantly the moment you personally come face to face with the consequences what China has just done.
    • SA
      Saad A.
      21 March 2020 @ 13:21
      People.... Can't we just get along.
    • WS
      Winslow S.
      21 March 2020 @ 19:33
      Please save your ethical views for another forum. Let's keep the convo on investment pertinent ideas and views.
    • CS
      C S.
      22 March 2020 @ 05:27
      I trust no government to entirely do the right thing, SD. Noted, we are now aware, but I wouldnt get too bent out of shape over the CCP at this juncture. Does you no good emotionally.
  • EC
    Emily C.
    21 March 2020 @ 22:13
    I’m not sure the weather is going to make a difference. Northern Ca has microclimates. It can be sunny in beautiful Palo Alto and rainy and cloudy in SF. SF has a notoriously cloudy and cool summer. The weather here in Santa Clara county (Silicon Valley) is currently in the low 60s. It’s never humid here. In the summer it gets hot, but typically cools by the evening. LA hospitals have supposedly given up on testing anyone that does not need hospitalization. There is a shortage everywhere in PPE. Availability of test kits is no longer the bottle neck. They don’t want to waste PPE gear testing someone who will just be asked to go One advantage the Bay Area has over NYC is that we are not nearly as dense. I think there is a five story limit to buildings on the peninsula (Palo Alto, Mountain View, Sunnyvale etc.) San Jose is much bigger geographically than NYC. We also have a terrible mass transit system and no subway. The vast majority of us travel by personal car and do not live in big buildings. I do believe density is a huge factor. NYC is the most similar to Asia with respect to density. Much of America is suburban sprawl. This should be a plus for ugh if America. If we are sheltering in, it’s very easy to avoid all other people.
  • DT
    Drain T.
    21 March 2020 @ 18:39
    love this guy
    • PC
      Paul C.
      21 March 2020 @ 20:59
      Agreed... I went to cash after listening to the last Insider Talks... sage advice in dangerous times. Stay safe everyone.
  • QM
    Quinton M. | Contributor
    20 March 2020 @ 22:28
    What do you think of euro$ right now with the funding issues. Does it get worse before goes to 99.8 or 100? Any thoughts would be appreciated.
    • JB
      Julian B. | Contributor
      21 March 2020 @ 20:10
      We will see in the next couple of trading days. But in general sub par is a really aggressive call.
  • JK
    James K.
    20 March 2020 @ 23:54
    Thanks greatly Julian... Thoughts on: TLT in here ..? UUP in here ..? GDX/J ...in here ? Thank you very much ...
    • JB
      Julian B. | Contributor
      21 March 2020 @ 20:00
      TLT: Agnostic here and certainly not a great hedge for your equities. UUP: As I said above, the Fed has moved fast to address liquidity. We will know soon if its working. So if you want to stay long tighten your stops. As for miners, I like them long term. All of this liquidity/ monetisation should be great in the medium to long term. But as we have all seen, the short term vol in these holdings is insane. At this stage, I'd only add to existing positions if and when we see the $ start to weaken.
  • PN
    Paul N.
    21 March 2020 @ 06:45
    Which Barrons article was Julian referring to regarding safe dividend stocks?
    • TF
      Thomas F.
      21 March 2020 @ 12:12
      It might be this one: https://www.barrons.com/articles/these-20-stocks-are-immune-to-dividend-cuts-51584136650
    • JB
      Julian B. | Contributor
      21 March 2020 @ 19:46
      That's the one. But the WSJ and NY Times have done similar
  • RY
    Roy Y.
    21 March 2020 @ 18:07
    Brilliant as always ... Thank you for the update ...
  • KA
    Kelly A.
    21 March 2020 @ 17:53
    Great stuff. Thanks. However, I'm not going to be able to watch all the things that you watch. I suspect we readers are all assuming you will let us know about the trajectory vis-a-vis napalm run to nuclear winter!... BTW: VERY helpful about the need for some of the funds and others to have to come back into the equity market.
  • MG
    Miguel G.
    21 March 2020 @ 14:47
    Julian, the best way I can describe the clinics you put up for us MI clients is like a show room Cadillac hitting the road for the very first time. Incredible video and I always walk away feeling like I understand macro and markets just a tad more. As the saying goes "Make yourself the dumbest person in the room." If you ever need an apprentice that will work for free and run errands just to learn from your brilliance I'm your guy lol. Keep up the great work Julian you're a rock star.
  • CS
    Christian S.
    21 March 2020 @ 14:38
    Totally brilliant update, thank you.
  • Mv
    Martijn v.
    21 March 2020 @ 14:04
    Hi Julian, On Florida, please do check the graphs at end of this article and especially the “Severe atypical illness level” in Florida! https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/18/health/coronavirus-fever-thermometers.html Thank you for these daily updates - super helpful!
  • SA
    Saad A.
    21 March 2020 @ 13:26
    Great insight Julian.... Please keep it coming. I couldn't make the tickers for mortgages ETF, will be grateful if someone can share. Tx
  • PM
    Philip M.
    21 March 2020 @ 04:23
    Julian, thank you so much for these frequent updates... can't overstate how helpful they've been.
  • pw
    paul w.
    21 March 2020 @ 03:58
    @Julian - if you are interested in detailed tracking the number of new cases in Singapore (where it is always hot) the government have a whatsapp group with daily updates. Interestingly the majority of new cases are imported from people travelling and return to Singapore. Hopefully it is weather affected as you say https://www.form.gov.sg/#!/5e33fa3709f80b00113b6891
  • km
    ken m.
    21 March 2020 @ 02:55
    This was EXCEPTIONAL. I recommend people play portions back 2-3 times. I have personally come through the last few weeks in much better than I would otherwise have done, because of the insights you have shared to date. Now, we have many other good things to seriously think about - with so much likely to be coming clear in in the next few weeks/months. Just the kind of help I was hoping for from RV when I joined near the beginning - Thanks Julian!
  • NR
    Nathan R.
    21 March 2020 @ 00:12
    Thank you Julian
  • DM
    Dominic M.
    20 March 2020 @ 23:57
    Thanks, Julian.
  • AP
    ANTHONY P.
    20 March 2020 @ 23:37
    Thank you so much for the frequent updates Julian! May I ask, is there a specific ETF or two that you recommend we use for the silver trade you mentioned? Thanks, Anthony
    • JK
      James K.
      20 March 2020 @ 23:55
      SLV