Insider Talks – October 2020 (LIVE)

Published on
October 6th, 2020
Duration
59 minutes

“Markets, Monetary Policy, and Society: A Major Inflection Point” Follow-Up with Julian (LIVE)


Insider Talks – October 2020 (LIVE)

Insider Talks ·
Featuring Raoul Pal and Julian Brigden

Published on: October 6th, 2020 • Duration: 59 minutes

In this month's Insider Talk, Raoul and Julian will be going live at 12:15 PM EDT on October 6th to discuss their recent thoughts and answer questions from all of our Real Vision members.

Comments

Transcript

  • TC
    Thomas C.
    7 October 2020 @ 23:18
    Yes look forward to Roger reviewing this session. Really enjoyed Steve doing it on essentials
    • GS
      George S.
      14 October 2020 @ 01:05
      Coming in the next 48 hrs. Already recorded.
  • JA
    Joseph A.
    7 October 2020 @ 00:13
    To help MI subscribers with refining the entry for the Nasdaq short trade I posted this technical analysis thread on the exchange last week. This has been updated as of today’s market action. I use a confluence of fibonacci levels derived from taking different time frame highs, lows and pivots to derive areas where there is more likely to be support and resistance vs the simple/single fibonacci retracements that most people use in their charting software. When I find confluences that are in a tight range this provides much higher conviction especially with a candle close above or below the levels: https://exchange.realvision.com/post/nasdaq-short-positioning-suggestions-based-on-fibonacci-confluence-resistan--5f71d6d7fbaaa77ad7bdd499 I also would like to add some numbers to the silver target support levels. Julian mentioned in this video support around 22.50-22-60 The support levels I have (based on the same Fibonacci confluence technique I used to derive the Nasdaq levels) are 2269-2279 also 2196-2223 and 2002-2008 Any break on a daily close below these levels (and below a previous support of 2369-2380 and 2460-61) increases probability of the market dropping to the next confluence support level. Over the last week the Nasdaq levels have held amazingly well. Despite the sentiment and Trump narratives trying to push the market higher, each has been a head fake and the market has come back off support and resistance both on a daily basis and intraday hourly / 4 hourly basis. I don’t trade short term or day trade but it’s useful with a trade recommendation like Julian’s for the Nasdaq, to zoom in and calculate confluence levels using intraday time frames to get better entry price levels to improve the risk reward ratio. If anyone has any questions about the Nasdaq levels please feel free to reach out to my in the exchange post.
    • JA
      Joseph A.
      9 October 2020 @ 10:23
      If anyone is interested, I’m continuing to update the Nasdaq trade technical levels situation on the Exchange. Link to the post (which I update via replies to my own post) in the comment above/below. Any questions please direct them to me in the Exchange and you can follow the thread too. Please don’t comment here as there are no notifications. Cheers.
  • GL
    G L.
    7 October 2020 @ 21:16
    European banks index keeps rallying whenever it should be selling off. That is the definition of a broken market.
    • MC
      Mathieu C.
      8 October 2020 @ 03:42
      The broken market is european banks trading 0.2x their actif net. To trade this level one shoukd expect a bloody recession indeed. Q3 earnings are coming. This will settle the view.
    • MC
      Mathieu C.
      8 October 2020 @ 04:25
      Sorry I meant to write "net asset" rather than "actif net" :)
  • CD
    Chris D.
    7 October 2020 @ 04:21
    Roger H will be excellent to do the breakdown Raoul mentioned - great idea!
    • MD
      Mark D.
      7 October 2020 @ 10:25
      Agree, he will do a brilliant job. Does an excellent job with Refinitiv
    • lv
      leon v.
      7 October 2020 @ 22:47
      can't wait for Roger to start !!!
  • DM
    David M.
    7 October 2020 @ 17:39
    Just kinda thinking out loud, but I've been thinking about how these insider talks happen once a month, yet we seem to be in the macro phase where the environment is constantly evolving, that more frequent updates would be much appreciated.. maybe instead of a single hour call a month, maybe 2 half hour calls a month on the 1st/15th or something like that.. Idk just a thought, thanks guys
    • lv
      leon v.
      7 October 2020 @ 22:46
      I really like your idea especially in the next 3 months that we may not have a government. The market could be very volatile. The guidance of Raoul and Jullian would be very important to guide us through the difficult time.
  • JL
    J L.
    7 October 2020 @ 21:07
    Julian what is the time horizon on the bond short as we are approaching October expiry and it looks the TLT recommendation may end up slightly in the money, thanks
  • MC
    Mathieu C.
    7 October 2020 @ 17:01
    You both keep saying that you don't want to fight the fed, but your actions don't seem to match up to your words. Let's face it, don't fight the fed! The market won't go down so easily with all this liquidity and hopefully government spending. From what I understand if Trump wins, market goes up thanks to their so loved trickle down theory. If Biden wins, market goes up also thanks to the infrastructure spending and inflation. Trump has been an amusement for 4 years but now this is over. That bear thesis has been pushed away for a good couple of years whatever the huge amount of debt which is or were already in the system and will still come. I would love to be still a subscriber when Raoul will finally turn bull on the economy. We just had a recession, give it 3 more months and everything will be flushed away. Why because now pessimistics talks about the longest expansion in history is actually history, next we will spend and compared to tax cuts, government spending has proved it works, a fresh cycle will come where company with good balance sheet will do great and probably take over the ones with assets and debt burden at the end of this new cycle once inflation will have washed them up. Don't get yourself into the bear trap of the amount of debt. That will never changed and will stay there to feed the next bull market indeed. The question now, is how do we prepare the next bull market from a macro perspective?
    • MC
      Mathieu C.
      7 October 2020 @ 17:03
      My question should certainly rephrase with : how do we prepare the next expansion from a macro perspective. The bull market will probably be very different from the passive investment ETF ones we have had since 2009.
  • GP
    Geoff P.
    7 October 2020 @ 16:54
    Welcome to the monetary caste system. The only way that digital currency process works as Raoul envisions is if that government bans all other assets. E.g. if one is subjected to punitive tax or punitive (negative on savings, usurious on borrowing) rates and another isn't, who is going to hold that currency? No one (or they'll up the anti for identity theft). Subjects of such a system will own foreign currency, btc, gold, stocks, etc. literally anything but that currency. Equality in rule of law is still fairly popular I think.
  • GP
    Grant P.
    7 October 2020 @ 13:12
    Crypto has shown governments they can get rid of cash and increase tax intake in doing so. Step one, citizens will be given an unique identifier required for all transactions, transactions taxed at the point of sale. Step 2, Corporations will pay tax on all transactions. Step 3 Government becomes the biggest collector of data ever and outlaws the hording of data by corporations and mandates corporations must buy data from the government. Step 4 Legalize the sale of recreation drugs. All transactions will be recorded, traceable & taxed at time of transaction. Cash market gone, unsophisticated black market gone. The coffers will be overflowing, no that's not right, digital can't overflow. Will this be a better system? maybe, slightly inconvenient when the power goes out or the internet drops out or occasional solar flare, keep a few shiny relics in the jar. Hmm get a job in the sexy new world of government finance.
  • GM
    Gary M.
    7 October 2020 @ 10:04
    I’m intrigued that the prevailing narrative seems to be that ‘stimulus’ is almost inevitable after the election regardless of who wins. Raul did an interesting interview with an Australian strategist (sorry can’t recall his name) a few months ago who mooted the scenario that the Republican Party could rediscover fiscal rectitude in the event of Biden presidency. This seems to be a plausible tail risk no one is talking about.
  • SS
    Shanthi S.
    7 October 2020 @ 04:11
    Brilliant chat guys. Thank you so much.
  • AI
    Andras I.
    7 October 2020 @ 01:39
    CDBC ramblings: "You vote with your wallet, you vote with your feet" - all dandy until you cannot even buy a train ticket or apply for a passport with your low social score. This is happening in China and will be happening in the West. No one will raise these issues if they can be individually financially penalised. Not next year. Maybe a decade or two down the road? People don't seem to care about giving up their mental freedom when they hand over data to megacaps who in turn put them in (somewhat volountary) boundaries. But what kind of social response will the perceived individual exceptionalism, physical and financial limits trigger? (anecdotal evidence from living in China) I keep getting messages about some guy living thousands of kilometers away from me as he somehow managed to enter the same phone number in his car registration that he was automatically charged for speeding...but wait for it: for jaywalking. A few seconds after he committed it! Not sure if he gets social points for this as he's in an area (Shenzhen) that's ahead of most of China but he probably does. The second thing: the most scary aspect is not even the Orwellian surveillance paired incentive system. It's how inefficient a central planning committee will be in deciding taxes and stimulus on an individual level to get the required outcome - when they (FED, ECB, all of them) cannot even predict the effect of their large scale, market distributed operations. They will have to actually have working models and lose their main weapon: expectations management and signaling.
  • SN
    Stefan N.
    6 October 2020 @ 23:10
    Cathie Wood would be great to have on the platform. Also a believer in crypto and someone who talks about deflationary aspects of tech innovation. She appears more bullish, a bit like David Lee, and therefore could provide a nice balance and perspective to a fairly bearish theme running across most reports and videos on RV currently. As this is about learning I think it would be super for you to sit down with either one of those soon. Thank you for all the hard work!!