Irresponsibly Longer: Flash Update November 30, 2020

Published on
November 30th, 2020
Duration
4 minutes


Irresponsibly Longer: Flash Update November 30, 2020

Insider Talks ·
Featuring Raoul Pal

Published on: November 30th, 2020 • Duration: 4 minutes

Raoul Pal gives a special flash update to Real Vision Pro members to clarify and expand further on his recent comments that he is selling all his gold in favor of Bitcoin. He explains why he thinks regulation is actually bullish for BTC as it encourages institutional ownership, how he is managing his position and thinking about pullbacks moving forward, and clarifies his views on gold, silver, and gold miners.

Comments

Transcript

  • MJ
    Matt J.
    7 December 2020 @ 20:01
    Hi Raoul, Do you see GBTC or QBTC.TO being able to (relatively) keep up with BTC on an explosive upside move? Any money I could throw at this trade right now is in registered accounts. If I were to use these BTC proxies, should I be at all concerned about them breaking correlation? I don't think I'd whine (too much) if BTC went up 10x and these funds only went up 9.5x, but wonder if these funds could get broken in sharp moves in either direction. Thanks and hoping to get on the life raft :-) {Sorry, reposting as originally posted as a reply by mistake}
  • Dd
    David d.
    30 November 2020 @ 18:04
    Raoul, What do you think of GBTC? In you opinion, does it accurately track the price moves in BTC, such that it provides acceptable indirect exposure to BTC? Same question for ETHE? Thank you!
    • GH
      Gary H.
      30 November 2020 @ 18:39
      I own a big slug of GBTC. If you can buy it at close to NAV it makes sense. Otherwise better owning BTC in a wallet than paying the current 42% premium which was actually a slight discount to NAV on Friday. GBTC even more volatile than BTC
    • MH
      Michael H.
      30 November 2020 @ 18:42
      Agree holding BTC direct is best, but for a lot of people their investable funds are stuck in retirement accounts, so at least GBTC offers some exposure to bitcoin in that case. If BTC goes to 30k GBTC will go along with it!
    • FE
      Francisco E.
      30 November 2020 @ 18:50
      On the topic of premium, I found that this web site saves the hassle of having to run the calculation yourself: https://bitbo.io (scroll to "Exchange Traded Products"). Also if you happen to have TSX access, QBTC.U (USD) or QBTC (CAD) have much lower premiums at this time.
    • JH
      Jason H.
      30 November 2020 @ 18:57
      ETH is trading around a 50% premium to the native asset. You should just buy ether directly.
    • JM
      John M.
      1 December 2020 @ 01:32
      If you get .00095174 bitcoin per GBTC share and bitcoin =USD $19,555 how do you get 42% premium with GBTC share price =$23.19 More like approx. 25%, right?
    • MJ
      Matt J.
      7 December 2020 @ 05:02
      Hi Raoul, Do you see GBTC or QBTC.TO being able to (relatively) keep up with BTC on an explosive upside move? Any money I could throw at this trade right now is in registered accounts. If I were to use these BTC proxies, should I be at all concerned about them breaking correlation? I don't think I'd whine (too much) if BTC went up 10x and these funds only went up 9.5x, but wonder if these funds could get broken in sharp moves in either direction. Thanks and hoping to get on the life raft :-)
  • ER
    Ernesto R.
    5 December 2020 @ 17:39
    thanks you
  • NI
    Nate I.
    1 December 2020 @ 05:04
    If I have this wrong, I apologize. Please correct me. Presumably your thesis is that bonds are essentially return free risk and institutions looking for alpha will buy bitcoin since bonds are dead money. Of course, Guggenheim Macro comes to mind. Ok, I can see that. Bonds are essentially dead at zero yield (notwithstanding a bet on negative rates). So let's assume institutions are seeking a bond alternative. With few exceptions, institutions haven't piled into gold. Why would they pile into bitcoin? Gold is safer. Gold is easier to justify to the investment committee. What's driving an institutional rush into bitcoin (against a backdrop where gold has been left for dead)? If anyone thinks I'm anti-bitcoin. I'm not. I own some bitcoin and a shit ton of gold, but I'm sorry I don't see the logic here.
    • PW
      Patrick W.
      1 December 2020 @ 19:06
      This is a good question.
    • SC
      Sanjeev C.
      4 December 2020 @ 23:15
      Valid points, Nate. I own both too (2x gold + miners compared to BTC). Though a much smaller in-flow into BTC would probably have a much larger impact due to the smaller size of BTC market?
  • AA
    Arthurs A.
    3 December 2020 @ 04:24
    If I have both AUD and THB sitting on the sidelines to DCA into BTC over the next 6 weeks which one would you hold onto (as a rainy day currency) and which one would you throw into the BTC? I'm on the fence deciding between a country of Rice and Protests and a country of Coal and Lockdowns :S
  • Dv
    Daniel v.
    1 December 2020 @ 11:49
    Thanks Raoul. But don't you think Pro members should get your updates first before you put them on Twitter?
    • mn
      michael n.
      1 December 2020 @ 12:35
      100% agree with this
    • cr
      chiel r.
      1 December 2020 @ 15:01
      I second that but you can make up for it by giving us (pro's) a timely heads-up when the time comes to cash in/lighten-up our chips
    • PV
      Peter V.
      2 December 2020 @ 10:01
      he's been long for ages, can hardly knock him for a single tweet
    • Dv
      Daniel v.
      2 December 2020 @ 14:24
      Peter V. I'm talking about selling gold(miners)...
    • Dd
      David d.
      2 December 2020 @ 16:11
      AGREE 100 %. Pro members should get the benefit of hearing it first! Guess you can grow RV by giving non-subscribers recommendations ... but then why would subscribers stay subscribers ?
    • TH
      Tom H.
      2 December 2020 @ 16:27
      I'm happy to get the update immediately on Twitter instead of waiting for something to be posted here. Plus we get far more trades and trade details on Pro than the public does.
  • OT
    Omar T.
    1 December 2020 @ 01:31
    if you have an audience of people who are paying a lot of money for pro membership to hear your thoughts, why not announce to us first your decision to sell all gold and buy bitcoin instead of going to the free twitter service first?
    • MC
      Mark C.
      1 December 2020 @ 02:07
      I see the thumbs up and thumbs down comments have been removed from comments. I would give this comment a thumbs up. For twitter to hear first is a little disappointing.
    • KH
      Kevin H.
      1 December 2020 @ 03:52
      I appreciate the video update to explain the reasoning behind the move, but have to agree with Omar.
    • CD
      Carl D.
      2 December 2020 @ 10:04
      Could not agree more.
  • AI
    Andras I.
    2 December 2020 @ 01:08
    Well played with the tight framing and haphazard looking setup.
  • OA
    Obai A.
    1 December 2020 @ 18:12
    Regarding Bond calls, what might change your mind Raoul and therefore the narrative? and what events you think that’ll trigger your thesis?
  • RS
    Ravinder S.
    1 December 2020 @ 11:06
    Thanks for the update Raoul! Lets enjoy the ride 🚀
  • NC
    Nicolas C.
    1 December 2020 @ 07:11
    Thanks for the update Raoul, curious what % of your BTC do you hold on BlockFi?
  • DM
    Dominic M.
    1 December 2020 @ 01:06
    Appreciate the brief update.
  • dg
    daniel g.
    1 December 2020 @ 01:04
    Hi Raoul, Do you do any of your own modeling on BTC price? Do you have a $$ estimate on the "wall of money" by end of 2021? How much does the market cap go up for every $1 invested into BTC ?
  • JS
    John S.
    30 November 2020 @ 23:08
    Raoul got me into BTC in 2014. Life changing...
  • RC
    RUBEN C.
    30 November 2020 @ 20:17
    Hi Raoul, I put a house on sale back in April and sold it in July to buy bitcoin. I have been waiting to buy hoping to fetch a good price during the 2nd virus wave but as we have seen the BTC price has doubled instead. My idea has been to wait for a good dip during December-January as the economic situation inevitable worsens, but your flash update changes everything. I may be buying 100,000 euros now then, just in case, and keep buying slowly after it. Another question, is it Gemini a good way to purchase it? I am from Spain.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      30 November 2020 @ 23:07
      I hear Gemini are good.
  • ML
    Michael L.
    30 November 2020 @ 23:04
    Thanks for this. Do you have any thoughts or plans on how you're going to allocate savings from your income over the next 2-3 years of holding this position? Is it more crypto or something else?
  • PW
    Patrick W.
    30 November 2020 @ 22:49
    Is this the GS report referenced https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/pages/gs-research/macro-outlook-2021/report.pdf, or has the 07-Nov forecast been further downgraded?
  • MD
    Matt D.
    30 November 2020 @ 18:53
    Raoul, can't thank you enough for bringing us on the life raft. Over what period of time are you thinking to dollar cost average in the rest of your ex-gold position?
    • MD
      Michael D.
      30 November 2020 @ 19:47
      Same question here ... days, weeks, months?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      30 November 2020 @ 19:56
      I don't know, I haven't got my cash from my gold sale yet but I'll likely just put it in over a week - a bit each day.
    • JL
      Jonathan L.
      30 November 2020 @ 22:21
      What will your approximate cost basis be on the entire position if your additional purchases over the next week are around current levels? Thanks so much!
  • MB
    Matt B.
    30 November 2020 @ 21:59
    Agreed, gold needs a good pyuke. Too many people been asking lately about buying gold - they should have done it 50% ago, not now.
  • JM
    Jake M.
    30 November 2020 @ 20:58
    what does "more papers from ECB" mean?
    • CW
      Corey W.
      30 November 2020 @ 21:22
      Whitepapers and policy-suggestion papers on the future of digital currencies
  • WJ
    Willie J.
    30 November 2020 @ 19:41
    Brave move- fully agree that one cannot use leverage on Crypto. You faith in DeFI (such as BlockFi) vs. Cold storage (your keys in your hands). 4 - 8% return over and above captain gain is very tempting...
    • AT
      Anthony T.
      30 November 2020 @ 20:13
      DeFi is AAVE.com Blockfi is centralized (CeFi)
  • RM
    Rohin M.
    30 November 2020 @ 18:32
    Thanks Raoul. Quick question, what sort of level are you looking at add to your Bitcoin position? Price has just recovered swiftly from a 16% sell off - are you expecting lower lows than we saw last week? Thanks
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      30 November 2020 @ 19:57
      Im not sure and as the upside is so big, Im not overly worried. I'll average in over a week and be done with it.Volatility is a feature, not a big in this case.
  • ac
    adam c.
    30 November 2020 @ 18:29
    This is exciting I might follow you and sell my gold to increse my Bitcoin position. Although a small portion of it I may hold in cash and put into miners when I feel Gold has finished its corection. Some of this is for Tax reasons as I live in the UK and cannot place bitcoin into any taxiefficient vehicle like an ISA. Thank you for the update :-)
    • GD
      Graham D.
      30 November 2020 @ 19:55
      Adam, Up until today AJ Bell were allowing purchases of BTCE from within an ISA or a SIPP. This is no longer the case from Dec because the FCA have decided to ban the sale of crypto based ETNs or derivatives to retail investors (nice!). However the relevant rules don't come into effect until Jan 6th so perhaps other ISA providers will allow you to buy BTCE. Legally it appears they can if they want to. Details here: https://www.fca.org.uk/news/press-releases/fca-bans-sale-crypto-derivatives-retail-consumers?utm_source=Crypto+assets+service+email+Nov20&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Crypto+assets+email+Nov20&utm_term=Important+update+about+investments+that+reference+crypto+assets&utm_content=68267&gator_td=ADNcVerz2%2brUjgzlwmRuoeB%2fiDQCqxvFJznEZsWGHX%2b%2fDfJhj86izrCQc3qKH0SpxP0UYBv3fwzWMsVQFVY0YEFjLPl6jcMEvfCFJe10hqdhBNCgIX0xNRw9KObx%2bf2UCNElQKiM4B7Nj3d0bDrd5OiM1pC2JwtgMcdX73fV%2fnx87aii4PLEoFsAEHStPrNeC0ib2ontmKE5T2Hha9fpSA%3d%3d
  • MJ
    Mike J.
    30 November 2020 @ 19:43
    Thanks Raoul. My portfolio and my family thanks you for your guidance.
  • DS
    Dale S.
    30 November 2020 @ 19:42
    Raoul, thanks for the astounding level of transparency, and the level-headed approach to this space. I've been in Bitcoin and Ethereum since early 2017, and you've added an incredible level of insight. I am sure the nonstop noise on Twitter is a grind, but keep up the great work and know you have a large following who is deeply appreciative of your perspective..
  • AH
    Ali H.
    30 November 2020 @ 17:46
    What’s the best piece of research to get up to speed in Ethereum? Bitcoin is well covered , not so ETH
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      30 November 2020 @ 17:54
      There was a piece in Macro Insiders from GMI a couple of months ago.
    • DS
      Dale S.
      30 November 2020 @ 19:36
      Real Vision just released a video: 'Ethereum - An Investigation'.
  • JL
    Jonathan L.
    30 November 2020 @ 18:22
    What time period are you going to average in over? Is your plan to avg in every day with smaller amounts and add bigger if it corrects a double-digit %? Thanks so much!
    • MH
      Michael H.
      30 November 2020 @ 18:39
      On Twitter last night he said over the course of a week
  • MS
    Mark S.
    30 November 2020 @ 18:23
    HI Raoul, I'm interested to know about your philosophy of using leverage in this case or lack there of. If someone was on top of their position, watching carefully and did not leverage too much, under 100%, can you expand on why this is a bad idea?.
    • JM
      John M.
      30 November 2020 @ 18:36
      How do you define "not leverage too much" for what is already an 80 vol asset...? It also trades 24/7, with insane gap risk. .. no days off. Why not just take a bigger unlevered position size to reach your desired vol target and avoid the risk of ruin with a fraction of the mental bandwidth and stress of managing the position?
  • NL
    Niko L.
    30 November 2020 @ 18:26
    Awesome Raoul, My P&L since late September thanks you, all from BTC. The trolls on Twitter are nuts ... }:o) nikoiceman
  • JW
    J W.
    30 November 2020 @ 18:21
    To me this is a natural progression of your views and I commend you for the decision. You have done a lot to drive and shape the narrative of Bitcoin. I cannot speak for others but to me your views have added a very valuable element fo the narrative and your opinion together with the other voices, also on the RV platform, further strengthened my own confidence to invest .
  • ly
    lena y.
    30 November 2020 @ 18:09
    Raoul's rationale about Bitcoin is playing out nicely! Thank you for making clearing about your view on gold and its miners!