Comments
Transcript
-
SJOof. This didn't age well.
-
AECouldn't disagree more...
-
TMHeard the opposite of much that I get from Hedgeye. Think I'll be sticking with the Mucca and the Hedgeye GIP Quad process.
-
VKOne of the best interviews on here
-
CCvery thought-provoking. especially interesting where the comments on the proportion of growth stocks versus value in the s&p 500, as well as how that helps explain current PE ratios. it's great to have viewpoints that are contrary to my default assumption - which is that the market is overvalued.
-
SJAnyone catch the contradiction on credit spreads?
-
mwThe fed has no choice but to lower rates. Market will continue to climb.
-
PPThank you for the outstanding interview. I got a lot out of it.
-
ISAWESOME! Both of you are fantastic! Thank you and keep doing the good work!
-
TTUS is going to lead global recovery? how so? by printing more money and lower interest rate which debases US currency?
-
FBExcellent content,this is why I subscribe to RealVision,a variety of ideas and views which I decide to use in formulating my investment thoughts. Would like to see Michael and Raoul in a cage match,
-
JKThere is no such thing as a "business cycle". It's a made up thing.
-
DWExcellent, fact-based opinions. Consistent with some of the non-RealVision commentators I listen to who have made a longer term bullish case for US equities. As long as there's no catastrophic geopolitical events in 2020, it could be another year to continue cautiously buying dips, while keeping your finger near the sell signal.
-
jswhere was this interview 4 months ago? now its easy and dangerous
-
BDReally good interview between Ed and Michael. for Michael, there was a well thought out thesis and provided good information especially about the PE nature of the S&P 500 today with the shift from lower PE cyclical to higher PE tech orientation. for Ed its nice to have a good interviewer thats able to ask good questions and then let the guest speak about it while also adding relevant observations and data and then letting the guest continue on. one thing i would recommend would be pairing a current guest topic with another idea that is either in complete opposition but has some merit to it or an idea that comes to the same conclusion but different methodologies. Thanks for a great interview michael and hope to hear more in the future and thanks RV for another great video.
-
FJInteresting interview, but i have two points to make regarding his statement that the ism pmi will see an uptick soon. 1) He states that the housing index is leading and points to the fact that housing starts are shooting up. But arent building permits like a leading indicator for housing starts which had a pretty bad reading? 2) He said that new orders to inventory ratio suggests that production will be ramped up mainly due to the fact that inventories are coming down at a faster rate in the last months. But looking at the ISM PMI report, it states that "The index contracted for the seventh straight month at a slower rate". This ratio Index suggests not really a positive outlook. Therefore: -> Building permits lower -> future building starts lower -> causing a future decline in the housing index -> Inventories are not declining fast and new orders are not picking up -> no substantial increase in production. In my opinion 2 out of 3 points for an uptick in the ISM PMI are wrong. Please correct me if im wrong.
-
TEDon't be so stingey with the heating guys. This poor fella needs to wear a bodywarmer
-
WGI really enjoyed this interview, especially the material on business cycle turns, the ISM v Markit PMIs, and various leading indicators (of these leading indicators). Really interesting and possibly useful. I'm not in the business and don't have the databases, but its my understanding there's indeed a zero correlation and r-square between any of the valuation measures mentioned and subsequent 12 mos returns. Got it, can't time the market. But a number of researchers (John Hussman the most prolific I'm aware of) have examined the same relationships with aggregate returns over multiple years. My casual info gathering suggests that the more useful valuation measures start to show "material/useful" relationships at about 7 years, and if u want to maximize the relationships, go out to 12 years (after that, prediction doesn't improve). But for 12 year aggregate returns, the better valuation measures (e.g., Market cap to gdp; Market cap to GVA) correlate above .90, r-squares low to mid 80s. Interestingly, the "Fed Model" has lousy predictive capacity, but why let a little empirical fact get in the way of nice narrative "no bubbles to see here". Anyway, I struggle to juxtapose some of his language regarding valuations here with the broader analyses based on multi-year returns, that he doesn't reference, but assume he's both aware of and would not dispute. Was also thinking it would be cool to get the folks from ECRI and Mr. Kantrowitz together. My impression is they're looking at the same things for the same reasons, but ECRI might be a smidge more cautious.
-
CLNASDAQ the most expensive market in the world defined as: " growth story group of stocks with large market caps" but less macro influence and cyclicality than other markets.
-
OCExcellent interview!!!
-
OMI very much enjoyed this interview. Great view points all around. Thanks RV
-
DB“Pretty much everyone in America has a job”. 😂
-
BSFantastic interview. Hit on a lot of things I've been noticing and connected a lot of dots. I've been wondering about the markit vs ism manufacturing pmi differences. Interesting take. Bravo!
-
DHwhere is the research data that stock prices will continue to increase other than some "castle in the sky" story?
-
KTGreat interview, I'd love to see Real Vision have Michael Kantrowitz back again soon. Ed Harrison is consistently a great interviewer.
-
AHBest Interview since two years, in my top 5 list of all RV Videos! Gosh, have I waited for a bull case that makes 100% sense!!!! Helps me a lot to decide on how I tilt my trading system, growth there has been better in the last 10 years and I was struggeling with the why. THANK YOU!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
-
SSI miss having the summary at the end of the video of the investment ideas like they used to in previous videos. Instead, now I hear the same sales pitch which I've seen dozens of times.
-
NvGreat interview. I like systematic thinking and deconstructing the argument. You decide for yourself at which level you disagree or agree. I would say Michael (and basically every tech investor) under-estimate the cyclicality of Facebook, Google and Amazon. These companies were a literal fraction of their current size in 2008-9. - Facebook revenue in 08 was 272m and estimates for 2020 are 84 bn - Google was 22 bn in 08 and 2020 estimates are 192 bn - Amazon was 19 bn in 08 and 2020 estimates are 330 bn (which is understated due to Marketplace) - Thus FB, GOOGL & AMZN combined sales was 42 bn and now 600 bn (today is 15x 2008)
-
DSInteresting, but we are in a high risk credit/political cycle which is dominating the business cycle. For me the stock market is simply supply/demand of money flows including buybacks without fundamental analysis. (Why would a bank buyback stock above book value?) Good luck to all. DLS