Finding Opportunities Late in the Cycle

Published on
May 9th, 2019
21 minutes

Finding Opportunities Late in the Cycle

Investment Ideas ·
Featuring Darius Dale

Published on: May 9th, 2019 • Duration: 21 minutes

In a follow-up interview to Real Vision's January talk with Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough, Hedgeye managing director Darius Dale updates us on what their macro risk model is suggesting when it comes to asset allocation. Dale outlines positioning on economic sectors and style factors, and introduces one big currency play. Filmed on May 6, 2019.



  • RW
    Richard W.
    11 May 2019 @ 18:27
    So many people talk like they have got it nailed ......... it bothers me. Complex systems have emergent (ie unpredictable) properties yet never is this addressed.
  • TD
    Timothy D.
    10 May 2019 @ 13:04
    Excellent interview. My only comment is a production point: the quad graphs provided are impossible to read on even a very large mobile device, the font is too small. Please consider that many of us watch these on our commute or in waiting rooms and such, and don’t have a large screen available to read tiny fonts. The content was great, thanks!
  • AM
    Artem M.
    10 May 2019 @ 11:50
    Those Moscow Mules in the copper mugs?
  • rr
    rlw r.
    9 May 2019 @ 18:29
    Yep Ed needs more air time on RV, he's always well prepared with insightful questions.
    • EH
      Edward H. | Real Vision
      9 May 2019 @ 18:40
      You guys are going to give me a big head!! But thank you. It's incredibly gratifying to know people appreciate the prep work I do for these interviews.
    • AP
      A P.
      9 May 2019 @ 20:31
      Well deserved Ed. Take the credit and run to see Raoul asking him we want you here much more. Insightful questions with perfect timing to answer, plus you really know your sh*t. Truly great.
    • DH
      Damian H. | Founder
      10 May 2019 @ 09:42
      Ed does a great job here at Real Vision. What you don't see is how much work he does behind the scenes on the editing of other interviews and films on the channel. Don't worry he works hard!
  • cm
    carlos m.
    10 May 2019 @ 02:18
    Interesting view on EUR/USD. Nonetheless, good work DD.
  • fc
    flavio c.
    9 May 2019 @ 12:14
    There is a mistake on the table, Fixed income Underweight, should be OVERWEIGHT And fixed income Overweight should be Underweight , minute 2.46 equity style overweight also wrong...
    • EH
      Edward H. | Real Vision
      9 May 2019 @ 13:18
      Ed Harrison here. Thanks for watching that. I looked at Hedgeye's rules-based risk management overlay again, given your comment. And what they recommend is underweight equities and credit relative to fixed income in Quads 3 and 4 when growth is slowing, but overweight when growth is increasing in Quads 1 and 2.
    • fc
      flavio c.
      9 May 2019 @ 19:09
      Hey Ed sorry about that, somehow I mixed the quad's ( 3 and 4) , and made this mistake. Its right! Sorry again for the trouble!
    • EH
      Edward H. | Real Vision
      9 May 2019 @ 20:52
      No worries flavio. I appreciate your pointing out when you think there might be an error in one of our charts.
  • MN
    Maverick N.
    9 May 2019 @ 16:29
    Good one. Darius should come back and do a longer master class style interview explaining in detail the 4 quadrants and the mechanics behind how the economy moves from one to the other.
    • MK
      Michael K.
      9 May 2019 @ 20:05
      You could subscribe to hedgeye and he’d love to tell you daily as a client ;)
  • ML
    Mike L.
    9 May 2019 @ 19:42
    Darius and the team over at Hedgeye are great. Look forward to hearing more from them again.
  • SB
    Stewart B.
    9 May 2019 @ 18:49
    This is excellent. I've been following their work for several years and their forecasting has generally outperformed the street.
  • HC
    Howard C.
    9 May 2019 @ 11:14
    Superb, Darius interviews very well, hope to see him back. China and Europe to lead a global growth resurgence in the back half of 2019? Certainly not the consensus view at this time.
    • DR
      David R.
      9 May 2019 @ 17:49
      Well, that already began in Q1 with China and parts of EM outperforming US, though some EM and Europe lagged, some badly. That's the opportunity presented by Quad 3 - a chance for alpha generators and stock pickers. Indexers should underperform.
  • EJ
    Edward J.
    9 May 2019 @ 08:16
    Great stuff - very pleased to hear that Hedgeye will be a regular guest. I find Darius' explanatory style of where the Hedgeye Quad process is at and the investment implications easier to follow than Keith's (sacrilege I know).
    • DR
      David R.
      9 May 2019 @ 17:42
      Well, that has already happened in Q1 with China and parts of EM leading US, while other parts lagged, some of them badly. That's the opportunity for Quad 3 - a chance for alpha generators and stock pickers. Also, their call that USD will collapse is likely to be spot-on as he explained. Currently, USD has failed with a double top from a fib 618 retracement pt of its impulsive collapse in 2017... very bearish for the buck. Expect a similar-sized impulsive decline in USD against most others to begin before lone, along with more underperformance of US stocks relative to select international equities. Don't forget bitcoin which has alread doubled against USD lately. When gold & silver get to bat, they should hit home runs too. Quad 3, gotta luv it!!
  • KC
    Kenneth C.
    9 May 2019 @ 17:27
    Crack. That's the sound of Ed Harris hitting another home run interview. Thanks Ed.
  • RM
    Richard M.
    9 May 2019 @ 16:03
    Wow, ANOTHER great interview Ed! Darius was super sharp and I'm definitely looking forward to seeing more of him. *** RV/Milty, again, please consider extending Ed's segments to at least 45 minutes (preferably an hour). Many thanks, Rick
  • DN
    Derek N.
    9 May 2019 @ 13:34
    Their model is so unique, but disciplined. I am curious as to what you will do when you are flirting back and forth with two or even three different quads since the playbooks for all the quads are so different?
  • JS
    Jerad S.
    9 May 2019 @ 07:28
    Darius Dale is so far above me. He has so much confidence. His models sound so complex and his assumptions seem large. It is like he paints with a large brush.
  • KL
    Ken L.
    9 May 2019 @ 05:51
    Darius is a great guy and obviously insightful. Have paid attention to Hedgeye’s quad model for awhile.