Comments
Transcript
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DWWhat I find fascinating with Kevin is that he always says your policy views don't matter. All that matters is what is going to happen. Which I agree with. Yet, he endlessly injects politics and what he believes the policy prescriptions should be.
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SSI personally don’t see it. Roaring twenties was a sort of blow off top of earlier innovations and cultural liberalization. I think we’ve run out course on both of those things at least for awhile. 2020s will be a decade of stagnation in my view, also aligns with Neil Howe’s of cyclical history in the US.
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KZThank you for a very good interview and comments about Bitcoin, it’s getting a little too much bitcoin on real vision and it should be toned down I think , it’s getting to the point of pushing it , I appreciate bitcoin but not when it’s taking the oxygen from the real issues of out time
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GKYeah Kevin, stocks only go up!
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PUWell done Max! Excellent job. One of the best interviews with Jim Grant.
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MJUseful to get the bearish side of Bitcoin, I hope RV can focus more on this to get this side as well.
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JLSome great insights, though his dismissal of Bitcoin was deeply disappointing. Not in terms of having a different point of view, which is fine, but in taking such an illogical stance with nothing at all to back it up. Whether Bitcoin ultimately succeeds or fails is unknowable, but you can think about expected value in terms of probability distribution. Say -- just for example -- there is a 66% chance Bitcoin fails by 2030 and a 33% chance Bitcoin goes to $1 million per coin by 2030. That could be distilled to a potential 50X return at 1 out of 3 odds. The expected value on that is insane. You would never bet the farm on a probability distribution with a two-thirds chance of failure, but you would certainly bet some small amount, e.g. a single-digit percent at minimum. Why would you not? It would be understandable for someone not to own BTC if they were strongly convinced the probability of success is zero. But to acknowledge that the chance of success is distinctly nonzero, and then to yet dismiss it as an investment based on extremely weak arguments and a funny little joke -- it's just disappointing. It's an indulgence in irrationality really. "I am going to dismiss one of the most incredible expected value investment propositions ever for reasons I can't really explain, and then make a non-funny joke about it."
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SNAgree this is a welcome input as its been BTC heavy heavy lately. Great to see more balanced discussion especially as Raoul is pushing EM on other channels.
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KKWow fantastic! We should just do global pandemics every time the business cycle down. So easy.
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PGGreat to see Kevin...miss those free weekly Macro Tourist emails, laughed and learnt something! Agreed on pent-up demand...all the social extroverts I know are really struggling (mentally and emotionally)...they have the banked vacation time and the savings...Yes, I know...just an inconsequential personal anecdote big picture...but anyways...
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BAI'm an unabashed fan of Kevin Muir and a MacroTourist newsletter subscriber. Well worth the money. Kevin helps provide much needed broad picture macro perspective as well as actionable trade ideas. Add in a killer sense of humour and you've got a great newsletter.
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GAI respectfully think that he is wrong on the robust economic recovery.
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BCEveryone is thinking there will be a tourism boom...well maybe not. People only have so much vacation time, (the people that still have jobs). Many people can afford to take 2-3 vacations/year, their employer will not allow them. My dentist, a very well off man, told me because of his career responsibilities, he can only take one vacation/year and he has to book it a year in advance. My favourite place to vacation, Hawaii, expects tourism not to reach pre-pandemic levels until 2025 at the earliest. From over 10.5 million tourists in 2019, Hawaii expects 6.2 million in 2021, 8.3 million in 2022, 9.4 million in 2023. I realize Hawaii may not be a good benchmark, but I think there is a story in their projections.
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DSThe US and other countries economic survival of this pandemic - where so many people cannot work to provide for their families - is completely different from even a deep business cycle recession. In some respects the problems of a pandemic are more like the Irish Potato Famine. An Irish farmer did all the farming necessary to put in and care for the potato crop to feed his family. You can discuss why it happened. You can give the Irish farmers the solution after the fact. Nothing except personal savings and the assistance of the church and state could allow the Irish people to survive the famine. Creating massive CB reserves in commercial banks with no one to lend to will not help the farmer or the merchant in the village. Giving money to the aristocracy will help a little as they fix up their mansions and buy stocks in America. Unfortunately, this does not help the overwhelming majority of the Irish people. In a pandemic the economy will survive when people survive. We will rebuild a growing economy. The all clear is on the horizon. We are most fortunate that men and women of science have developed vaccines at warp-speed. We need to help the families and important businesses in the most need to survive for six more months. We can do a better job the second time. We know more about what works! It is the right thing to do. It is also the necessary thing to do to rebuild an economy at warp speed together. DLS