China, Coronavirus, and Trust – Live with Leland Miller

Published on
April 3rd, 2020
Duration
44 minutes


China, Coronavirus, and Trust – Live with Leland Miller

Live ·
Featuring Leland Miller

Published on: April 3rd, 2020 • Duration: 44 minutes

As Covid-19 seemingly leaves the borders of China behind and sets it deadly sights on the rest of the world, many have begun to question the veracity of both economic and medical statements made by Chinese authorities. Did the virus start there? Is the worst over inside China? Can their data be trusted? US intelligence officials operating under conditions of anonymity, recently noted that China has underplayed the extent of the virus outbreak. Given the nebulous nature of official Chinese data, Leland Miller, CEO of China Beige Book, joins this week’s Real Vision Live to share his perspective on the truth inside China.

Comments

Transcript

  • WC
    Wilson C.
    9 April 2020 @ 03:44
    Leland is rock solid. no pro or anti-china rhetoric, tells it straight with data, the good and the bad. interesting to see some comments re: nefarious CCP influence, war, etc. seems to have missed the key points of this interview. comment about "toe'ing the line" re: analysts/financial firms wanting to do business in China, isn't this a global problem with the industry rather than a china specific issue? ie, look at the rating agencies collusion with wall street, lobbying for favors with WH, etc, seems all same same to me. Makes me appreciate the independent thinkers like Leland. My takeaways: 1- China will try to goose the consumer spend, but unlikely to open the $$ spigots for huge stimulus, ie infrastructure spend. not good news for commodities. 2- Need a strong RMB to re-balance the economy towards consumer, strong USD is a problem 3- Virus numbers are under-reported. Not surprised, at the same time there's no panic/fear, life/business is recovering (Michael Pettis twitter feed post on what he sees daily in Beijing, my friends in SH/BJ also same feedback, back to cycling, etc). 4- deglobalization / supply chain changes coming. As it should, but definitely result in higher costs/prices = inflation. There's a reason why corporations did what they did right $$$? stock valuations may take a hit (no more goosing share prices with buybacks + increasing costs unless increase prices). a lot to digest, thanks Ed/Leland.
  • MC
    Michael C.
    8 April 2020 @ 03:09
    Excellent interview from a believable source, unlke the think tanks in the pocket of Beijing. Post this virus, expect a reckoning for the "paid" think tanks.
  • wj
    wiktor j.
    7 April 2020 @ 19:57
    Awesome video. At last someone with truths about china. Doctor Paul Cottrell (on his youtube channel) has done alot of g-nome analysis of this. He breaks down the proteins and receptors. (Did you know there are now 2 strains with its own mutations of each?) He also presents the probabilities of this virus coming from nature. Its extremely low. My opinion its “bat woman” (Shi Zhengli) that is tied to release of this. I could be some personal agenda against the Chineese regime. She has since disappeared, and many believe she was patient 0. Interesting that china will keep the peg. At last someone has answered my question about HKD!
  • HC
    Hahns C.
    7 April 2020 @ 19:36
    The US owes Leland Miller a debt of gratitude. I thank you for your intelligence work. The world deserves the truth in order to garner trust between nations. Lying about military defense strategy versus lying about money (economic output and banking). I pray that you are safe from CCP operatives trying to quiet you. I believe in the long run we will be in a hot war with China whether direct or proxy. If China fails similar to what happened in USSR, we could only be so lucky. Xi's successor might become another Putin to deal with.
  • KJ
    Kevin J.
    7 April 2020 @ 18:14
    Leland Miller is great. Please get him on more often.
  • TP
    Timothy P.
    7 April 2020 @ 16:09
    I'd love to see Kyle Bass discuss his Yuan/RMB thesis with Leland Miller. While I agree the Chinese won't WANT to devalue, their shadow banking system and corporate credit are getting to nightmare proportions when it comes to non-performing loans and defaults. Ultimately, the market doesn't care what they want -- it will go there on fundamentals alone. Good interview, nice job!
  • FB
    Frank B.
    7 April 2020 @ 09:27
    Fantastic content. Thanks to Leland Miller and China Beige Book for providing important insight into the Chinese economy and especially for exposing the flawed advice of many think tanks. I lived in China from 2011 to 2019 and I would agree that infrastructure spending is off the table for stimulus, simply because there is not much left to build. All cities have massive airports now, there are huge highways in great condition and high speed railways everywhere. I traveled through the countryside last autumn with a Lonely Planet guidebook from 2017 and everything the book had on transport options was outdated. Most of these structures are massively oversized. Often debt is a number on the balance sheet but in China it's for everyone to see as countless empty buildings and roads. Debt visualized with concrete, steel and glass. Interesting comments on the RMB. I have probably heard the devaluation prediction from many economists since 2015, who apply their past macro logic to a command economy like China's. At the same time those people with real insights into China's politics and economy clearly said this is not gonna happen. People wanna hear what they believe, and Mr. Miller said they even lost clients for telling what the real story is.
    • FB
      Frank B.
      7 April 2020 @ 13:05
      And right in cue this: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-fx-reserves-drop-more-082509123.html
  • MM
    Mitchell M.
    7 April 2020 @ 11:05
    Think of 1/3 of the country being an retirement home, now remember that these people come from a culture that is incredibly frugal and their kids are making less than 2k/month then they just got financially gut punched for 2 months in a row. Oh yah and CPI has been rapidly increasing over the past 2 years. Now talk to me about this demographic being a great source of consumption... Great video China Beige Book!
  • HS
    Hugh S.
    7 April 2020 @ 10:03
    Good balanced interview. Only possible with someone who has skin in the game.
  • DS
    David S.
    6 April 2020 @ 22:00
    I agree Great Conversation. Very practical and informed! RVTV should invite Mr. Miller back often. The trajectory of the Chinese economy will tell us a great deal about the economic recovery and profits in the West – not a V, not a U, not an L but lower and lower. What is the stock market thinking? (Sorry how are the quants programmed for an event they never expected?) The Chinese people are great at saving capital. In the US personal savings, for the most part, is the unused balance of the sum of the credit card debt. It is important to see how China’s return to work affects the secondary and tertiary spread of Coronavirus. Even in lockdown, there is a pinball effect. There is a lot to learn from this interview. I will watch it again later. DLS
    • ly
      lena y.
      7 April 2020 @ 01:46
      You always give thoughtful comments1 Thank you!
  • DS
    David S.
    6 April 2020 @ 23:32
    Who is more realistic: Jamie Dimon: “We’re getting a bad recession plus financial stress like the 2008 crisis” or President Trump: “I can see light at the end of the tunnel.” Both can be correct, but it is a really, really long tunnel. DLS