Comments
Transcript
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VSWe are in a depression -do you all understand that?
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GLGreat interview - thank you! I do think the Fed will ultimately buy stocks (borrowing from the BOJ's playbook) because the prospect of a sudden, destabilising further leg lower in equities will hit state pension funds that are already massively underfunded.
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wjYou really believe that fed will be loaning new loans to coorp? So not only buying Junk debt but basically rolling it over with new debt? remember swap lines are loans. Who will roll that over later? I think he is wrong. Oil is now at negative and we will see countries default.
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JMGreat interview. Sadly Varoufakis was right..
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AHIn the case of the nasdaq we should expect the Fed to go full retard and start buying stocks too? Seems the rally is rallying on the expectation of a rally. The psychology of participants has to change, or indeed, they were simply riding a short term trade from the get go and their expectations are correct. Sure the Fed can come back and we can rinse and repeat, but why hold a position in this right now? Where is the incentive to hold equities in this environment?
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WCGosh ,from all the guests that have been had recently this guy is not bearish on emerginf market currencies like Raoul and some of the other experts here.He does make a good point about the ability of the fed to print as much as possible. What do you guys think here?Is kevin muir more accomplished and insightful than Raoul and some of the other guest regarding dollar strength?
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IPI have a request to Real Vision: please organize a round table on the dollar, nothing else, with these participants: Raoul Pal, Julien Brigden, Brent Johnson from Santiago Capital, Kevin Muir and Jeffrey Snider. I think most of us are now divided and in difficulty, the milkshake theory makes so much sense, and it is so contrarian! But Brigden and Muir are so smart, what do you need to watch to decide who is right before it's too late? I tend towards the Dollar bullish camp in the next 12 months because I believe china must devalue, then I'll be bearish. hope you will organize some interviews on the dollar, it is the most important topic right now I believe, thanks
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TMI'm sure I can recall Lacy Hunt discussing the coin minting idea, and describing the day it happens as the day that the US turns itself into a Banana Republic. Would be great to hear him debate this with Kevin.
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mwEd is right. The Europeans don't want the United States of Europe... especially Germany. We are tired of paying for the bad fiscal policy of Italy and co.
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LDi buy everything he says nice 1
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RGSo if he is right reserves banks will just keep printing us out of recessions etc kicking the ever bigger tin can further down the road. Increasing the wealth gap over and over. Great.
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PCRV team: Will a transcript be published please?
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RRSo basically Kevin is in the camp that the rules of the financial system, specifically, the role of the fed, the definition of government debt, and the traditional pricing of stock markets, all no longer matter. Instead the new norm is, FED can do anything they want, governments debts aren't actual debts that ever need to be paid down, all-time high multiples in the market are justified no matter the economy, Sounds like a recipe for complete crony capitalism, and a horrible future where governments have unlimited power, and anyone who's not rich gets screwed, likely eventually reaching class warfare. Did I get that right?
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MCKevin is great thanks. Just something I would like to bring up here. I think RV is asking too much from guest speakers outside their core competence. In particular refering to the Euro$ (offshore USD) plumbing debate. Most speakers are being asked very hard questions that they really can't answer and don't have data to back up opinions with. The conversation just spins around, stabbing in the dark as one narrative gets latched onto at a time. Are you able to dedicate a special line of conversation to this topic with specialists that share core compentencies in currency markets, institutional banking, cdentral banking & geopolitics etc (not only FX chart readers). Without data on how effective the Feds swap lines are in getting USD to indebted offshore non bank entities then how do you tell whose USD bull/bear opinion is more accurate? Eg Ideally we need to know the size of US$ shortage positions by geography, some local banking system understanding and what kind of default rate we might be looking at. Then what are the complications when swap lines mature (yes they get extended but not without consequences). I am probably asking the impossible because the shadow bank Euro$ market is just too opaque. The conversation agreed that MMT pushes up a currency because it stimulates an economy, inflation rises, rates go up. Isn't the US most likely to do it first? Especially under a Democrat?