Pandemic: Globalization Declining – Live with Peter Zeihan

Published on
March 24th, 2020
Duration
51 minutes

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Pandemic: Globalization Declining – Live with Peter Zeihan

Live ·
Featuring Peter Zeihan

Published on: March 24th, 2020 • Duration: 51 minutes

Just a mere few weeks ago, not one person on this planet could have predicted the kind of shock we are all experiencing. Global trade has come to a screeching halt as once bustling cities and countries have instituted nationwide shutdowns. Now, it seems that there are two key facets to look at: the interim and tomorrow. Today, the question is centered around the virus and how it will impact our daily lives. As we look into the future however, we must ask ourselves, what does this mean for global supply chains, geopolitics and international relations? Geopolitical strategist Peter Zeihan joins us on this week’s Real Vision Live as we try to understand the current and future trajectory of US political and financial hegemony.

Comments

Transcript

  • sw
    stefan w.
    26 March 2020 @ 07:06
    Great interview. Watching it live, and the recorded version again today. A number of very provocative assertions. 1. Zeihan's conviction re Japan's naval power being far superior to China was one of the surprises. Can you point to sources that back up this assertion? 2. Also if you could point to any articles that address the implications that sub [$40] oil would have on Russia this would be very interesting. My impression (prior to watching this) had been that politically and economically this is something the Russian state could ride-out without significant pain... Thanks again, many things to think about after watching this..
    • RG
      Razmig G.
      26 March 2020 @ 18:31
      That was my understanding about Russia having no problem riding this out and coming out on top concerning oil.
    • IO
      Igor O.
      9 April 2020 @ 11:41
      Shale oil cheeper then russian to produce?.. I will need some convincing on that.
  • OO
    Olga O.
    26 March 2020 @ 20:15
    It is an interesting interview. I must say it has a very American perspective; somewhat marginalized view on Russia, very enthused about shale... You can not really be talking about geopolitics in any serious way without counting Russia as one of the top powers in the world.
    • IO
      Igor O.
      9 April 2020 @ 11:36
      He said some countries won't be on the map in few years?.. seems like exaggeration. That kind of things take decades. US of A will be fine of course.
  • DR
    Dick R.
    8 April 2020 @ 13:07
    Quaint but low tech. Nothing about the Chinese blowing up our GPS satellites so we can't find ourselves or them. They've already blown up a satellite as a demonstration. Nor does he mention the possibility of the Chinese severing the cables under the Atlantic linking the internet - sounds improbable but they have been caught down there on the sea bottom inspecting the cables. History is progressing with or without Mr. Zeihan.
  • AK
    Archavir K.
    2 April 2020 @ 08:08
    Very interesting indeed, but very much 'Single-Tower' angle - nothing about the potential risks (apart from voters choosing not-so-bright leaders) which USA is going to have (of course anything big happening in the biggest economy will deform the global forecast in a major way.) Especially:- -political risks, the division in the country is at a very high level, nothing about November -half the Americans are poor and cannot meet any challenges - this is Not the generation from 100 years ago... -China may get rejections, but what about USA being the bully in the World using the USD/SWIFT etc. Do you really think other countries are happy about the way USA behaves either?? And with regard to China: provided they do not fail politically, and they increase the local consumption slowly but surely, why do they need to export to the USA in the future either :)
  • CG
    Christine G.
    29 March 2020 @ 14:41
    Credible thesis. The world is going to become smaller and more fractured, and more dangerous for many. My concern is not a criticism of this thesis but is a glaring concern that applies to much of the Real Vision presentations. He makes no mention of environmental issues. The environment is an after-thought for capitalism, a cost and nothing more. By treating it as a commodity, the costs of debasing the environment are not incorporated into the costs of goods but become costs to society, which big business works to underfund to prevent government's ability to really deal with those costs. The costs are then born by society and individuals, notably the poorest individuals who often tend to be too poorly educated or politically fractured to see the root causes and are often willing to support the system and social order. As only one example, shale production permanently pollutes ground water (reducing the pollution per well only postpones peak pollution) and causes earthquakes; that affects the local populations but they are often small and largely invisible and do not have the power to change this. Environmental laws and enforcement are the only counterweight, but that depends on moral and financial decisions made by people, generally on the coasts far from the action. The need for these moral and financial decisions by people who have nothing to gain financially, can lead to cause-based burn out and is dependent on a high degree of moral development that I rarely hear expressed on Real Vision or the people who write on the posts. Another potential casualty of this new order is morality. We may return to a world of robber barons, petty feudal players and corruption on a monumental scale. The complete corruption of the Republican party is a case in point. If we do not rout the Republican party in the next election, any semblance of a republic may be lost - and with it any hope for the environment and climate and any hope for a moral and more just society.
    • JP
      Jan P.
      2 April 2020 @ 02:45
      Also seems that very few are concerned about specific effects of climate change, e.g. flooding impact on coastal property & infra, food supply issues etc.
  • SM
    S M.
    29 March 2020 @ 17:33
    Very interesting. Indeed, it is now about the time to rewrite the world order for 21st Century as many nation states are challenging the current order. Almost exactly the same scenario 100 years ago reaping itself 🤔
  • DS
    David S.
    26 March 2020 @ 08:08
    Turkey's GDP is half of Russia's GDP. Russia has made many tactical moves in the Middle East. It is reasonable to me that Russia will continue to project power in the Middle East. Alliances will continue to divide along the historic Ottoman Empire countries against the historic Persians Empire countries. Saudi Arabia will increase power along with Israel. I think the Middle East may be more interesting to Russia than Europe. I am not sure that Russia wants to exert power on two fronts. DLS
    • RG
      Razmig G.
      26 March 2020 @ 18:30
      Why would the middle east be interesting to Russia if there is no value in projecting its power the ME already has oil, can't sell it.
    • DS
      David S.
      26 March 2020 @ 20:44
      Power is power. Russia would like to become an empire again. In addition, if Russia could gain more power in the Middle East, they could better control the price of oil. DLS
    • DK
      Dejan K.
      28 March 2020 @ 08:21
      @ Razmig G. It can control supply and therefore price and growth of all nations that have their own.
  • DK
    Dejan K.
    28 March 2020 @ 08:18
    Zeihan, it seems, puts forth CFR wish list rather than reality. But them being on the CFR wishlist makes them not improbable.
  • ZY
    ZHENG Y.
    27 March 2020 @ 03:09
    Japan's naval power is far superior to China was one of the surprises. Can you point to sources that back up this assertion? I also cannot understand this.
  • TC
    Thomas C.
    26 March 2020 @ 21:55
    Totally hypothetical and leaning a little towards fiction. He has the demographics correct but fails to realize that Europe and Asia will not stand still - they will adopt and change. Some reasonable points about the future of globalization. Don't see 10 dollar oil and shale has a finite lifespan like oil Fails to talk about the monetary system.
  • JO
    JieHwa O.
    26 March 2020 @ 19:07
    Peter sounds a bit anglo-centric and biased for me to take him seriously.
    • JO
      JieHwa O.
      26 March 2020 @ 19:11
      I dont think the dude understands the Chiense people at all. My ancestors left China 100+ years ago and I still identify as Han Chinese (i.e. the single largest race on the planet).
  • RG
    Razmig G.
    26 March 2020 @ 17:57
    What a great geopolitical tour de force! BRAVO!
  • RW
    Randy W.
    26 March 2020 @ 17:31
    Outstanding commentary. What a terrific education on what's likely coming to the globe. Thank you!
  • PG
    Philippe G.
    26 March 2020 @ 14:33
    Great conversation!
  • DS
    David S.
    26 March 2020 @ 08:11
    A simpler view toward investing is presented in the Tri-Polar World RVTV series. Check it out in the library. DLS
  • JS
    John S.
    26 March 2020 @ 04:16
    Great interview. Thank you. Great thematic confirmation for the forces ahead.
  • Am
    Alex m.
    26 March 2020 @ 01:37
    Very interesting, there was a fairly loud part of Australia wanting to stop our historical military alliance with USA and redirect to China. I assume these people also would rather live under a dictator also... Are very low oil prices able to be captured by retail investors? or do you need to turn up with storage to access... When I hear "negative prices" i assume retail spot instruments will have a price floor that they do not get below - is that 10, 5, 2, 1 dollars?
    • KE
      Kathryn E.
      26 March 2020 @ 02:47
      Not sure where you get the Australia part as all I can see here is quite the opposite. Don't get me wrong, we depend on China economically, but there is a massive social discontent with the idea of them getting involved in our politics. Any politician that aligns itself to China gets a big backlash
  • BS
    Bevyn S.
    26 March 2020 @ 00:36
    Man I wish you guys talked about gold....!!
    • BS
      Bevyn S.
      26 March 2020 @ 00:36
      Listened to Peter on Hidden Forces... Neat ideas. Make sure he comes back!!!
  • DS
    David S.
    25 March 2020 @ 21:38
    The interest rate is not the only "cost" of capital. You must convince someone to loan you the capital at a zero-interest rate and they want to get their capital back. Although the Fed is trying, there is not an infinite amount of capital around. DLS