Comments
Transcript
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MGI thought this was a great discussion other than the point that Luke made about the stock market going down being a threat to national security. I couldn't disagree more as the lower/middle class is vastly underweight equities and wouldn't lose a minute of sleep if the market lost 50%. The top 10% in the United States own 92% of all stocks in America. Will it effect consumption in the US in the short run, possibly but it'll be vastly beneficial imo to allow prices to clear and give the other 90% of American's a chance to grow with America at a much lower multiple. Instead, they are not only getting locked out of financial assets, but getting screwed on the other end in terms of wage growth. If real estate was allowed to clear in 2008, a much more important asset to the working class, why cant stock prices. To think other wise is ridiculous imo and its whats wrong with today's policies. The percent of Americans that benefited from financial asset appreciation the last decade is a small percentage of total Americans. Lets not fool ourselves that the stock market is important to all of us, its benefited a few and left behind many.
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DKI would love to hear Luke debating Steve Van Metre on subject of dollar strength and gold price drop. I know Steve’s interview with Brent Johnson is coming; would also like to have Steve to interview Jeff Snider (although it may turn into a love fest as both are in USD shortage camp:) )
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JGMy assets in a chair.
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MDLuke speaks about complex topics with simplicity and common sense and makes them a ‘given’ to understand and foresee unfolding. Love listening to him speak.
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RKExcellent. Maybe Luke could interview Kiril Sokoloff and/or Victor Sperandeo.
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CGGreat interview Ed! Luke is awesome. Kept the conversation very simple to understand. Looking forward to next week on Precious Metals.
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bMIts time to bring Lyn Alden!
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AIOne thing that I miss from these models is the overseas (shadow) banking systems' (interbank wholesale) eurodollar creation effect, which had a multitude of implications. 1, The Fed and M2 are somewhat irrelevant if the banks don't cooperate - USD is not a domestic market, fed funds and eurodollar rates break at the worst possible times... Etc. Not just njo direct control over this market but also no clear idea of the size and complexity of it. 2, After GFC and profits disappearing with lower and lower rates rates, banks are less and less willing to take on the chore of lubricate the international monetary system and act as a drag on almost all economies (not just US but China.. Etc), clearly visible in underperformance of pre-2008 trends 3, Rise of populism as a result of underperformance and further distortion of wealth distribution --- There is a multiple hours presentation about this on Macrovoices (search eurodollar university), highly recommended. Recorded in 2017-2018, there was an update interview this year. Further basics: Prof. Perry Mehrling (whom I recommended to Ed already) of Columbia University recorded (in 2013?) his semester long course covering shadow banking course, where he presents a model (Money View) of central banking and connecting the financial and economic systems, a history of banking, various systems, money, broker/dealer models.. Etc. He's using Marcia Stigum's money markets book, but it's not dry at all. Available on his website (amongst shorter/updated versions) for free. It's a long haul but helps tremendously to understand what's going on.
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MDGreat interview Ed, Luke is definitely an excellent guest - both in his insights and as a person. I like the fact he doesn't seem to have an agenda and can always keep a solid contextual framework (geopolitical often) for his ideas. I like his idea of an informal organic discussion - often a source of creative ideas. Enjoyed this, thanks!
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MRA Pro's Pro.
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RMLove, Luke! The best macro guys can explain complex things simply. Luke is definitely one of them.
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SBDuring my long (and successful) career in business, the golden rule we were constantly reminded of was "there is always a bigger picture at work and you need to understand it". Luke is the ultimate analyst of The biggest, big picture. Priceless!
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EKThis was superb! Great job Ed in your questioning. I’ve heard Luke talk dozens of times and as one commenter said he really connects the dots. I’ve unfortunately usually only understood a little less than half of what he’s said. Today I think it clicked for me. Thanks to you both for a great dialog!
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bMLuke is on target as usual. Added one more to my list for a revisit.
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DBFantastic! I look forward to reading the transcript so I can absorb more of what was said. Thank you gentlemen.
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TBThanks Ed and Luke. I do have a tough time following Luke's train of thought, as it has several switches…The Strong points are inflationary and deflationary cause and effect
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AWOutstanding Gentleman. Luke thank you for the macro historical picture connecting so many dots. Exceptional thinker laying out complex topics so clearly. Thank you for helping us to navigate these crazy times. Yes Please Ed, thanks for creating more sessions with Luke.
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GBExceptional. Luke is so clear and reasoned with his perspective.
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JEReal quality you get the best guys. Fed versus Gov on yield rates is essential info.
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OMGreat one! Thank you RV, ED, and Luke.
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PUone of the best from Ed and RV to date!
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ASNobody connects the dots better than Luke. The "banquet of consequences" has finally arrived. A healthy allocation to gold makes sense. Thanks.