Bubble Spotter Sees Fed Balance Sheet at $10T in Dangerous Markets

Published on
November 3rd, 2016
58 minutes

Bubble Spotter Sees Fed Balance Sheet at $10T in Dangerous Markets

Master Class ·
Featuring Doug Noland

Published on: November 3rd, 2016 • Duration: 58 minutes

Doug Noland has a long history in hedge funds, as a noted short seller, but is best known for his ability to spot bubbles. He wrote about the mortgage finance bubble in 2002 and called the government finance bubble in April 2009. In this Master Class, Doug outlines where the cracks will appear in the current excess, running right to the heart of the monetary system.


  • MM
    Melvyn M.
    12 June 2020 @ 01:27
    Watching this today in light of recent events has extended my understanding of the markets no end, thanks RV.
  • WA
    Wissam A.
    3 January 2020 @ 09:58
    Central Banks and government policies have killed "The Moral Hazard", which is one of the fundamental principles of a healthy market economy.
  • RD
    Ray D.
    14 November 2019 @ 20:18
    Great interview.....would like more facts and data to support views
  • GB
    Gold B.
    7 July 2018 @ 18:37
    Next interview, can the RV guys ask Doug's better half not to walk around in the background? Reflection in the mirror - slightly annoying.
  • TS
    Todd S.
    8 June 2017 @ 02:32
  • MR
    Mark R.
    3 June 2017 @ 13:06
    Great re-watch. RV interviews remind/support the long-term thinking and discipline that is truly helpful and not mainstream. A good reminder that this plays out over extended periods of time that often goes on much longer than we expect or frankly prefer -- "tops do not need to be called". Excellent interview Grant, great job letting him talk in depth and pulling out key elements.
  • JH
    Jesse H.
    3 March 2017 @ 13:13
    Great advice at the end - shorting anything is not for everyday investors. It is something that has to be done with extreme care and attention to risk.
  • JH
    Jesse H.
    3 March 2017 @ 13:07
    Very interesting interview, with some similarly cautious sentiments to many of the other financial experts being interviewed. How about a debate format, where Grant / Raoul debate a leading contrarian investor? That would be one to watch with a beer and some popcorn.
  • SK
    Stefan K.
    21 November 2016 @ 21:29
    I would have loved a follow up question to Doug expressing his positive views on the precious metals: "How will a bursting credit bubble affect them?". Theoretically the precious metals sector should have also been inflated by the credit bubble, if not as severely as stocks and bonds. So, if this is true, how far would they fall? Assuming that the Dow / Gold Ratio returns to 1, like it did before, what happens to the Dow and what would a likely price target be for gold?
  • AC
    Andrew C.
    21 November 2016 @ 04:40
    Paraphrasing ... Marginal sellers indicate the start of the end of the bubble. Where are the marginal sellers coming from to sell US Equities?
  • GS
    Greg S.
    10 November 2016 @ 04:03
    Interesting that he sudyied under Steve Keen for a while. This interview and Steve Keen's recent interview are real eye openers.
  • WM
    Will M.
    9 November 2016 @ 19:33
    Very good indeed. I followed the Prudent Bear bulletins regularly and read Doug's bulletins with great interest. By 2006 it just seemed to be going on and on and I failed to take a more aggressive position prior to the 2007 market rupture. Just thought it would get reflated again. I think most RVT viewers, especially if they have been around the market for the last 20 years, are very very nervous. I need these interviews, ideas and pointers to help me distill my options for financial survival. Thanks
  • Sv
    Sid v.
    8 November 2016 @ 22:04
    thank you again for an excellent interview. they say that 90% of communication is non-verbal, watching these discussions is so much more useful than simply listening to them,
  • CG
    Chuck G.
    7 November 2016 @ 18:55
    In a nutshell: valuations are crazy, it's unsustainable, wait for signs of a crash before shorting.... ok... I just don't see the value-add of that presentation It's always about timing, isn't it? Or we oughta all just index and be done with it...
  • PJ
    Peter J.
    7 November 2016 @ 14:57
    Thanks for getting Doug on, the interview didn't disappoint.
  • JG
    Joe G.
    7 November 2016 @ 03:35
    Davis S. R: Nov 3 Historical Query See Norton Reamer&Jess Dowing's recent book _Investment_A_History_ & Michael Covels's 30Oct2016 Interview w/Reamer http://traffic.libsyn.com/trendfollowing/498.mp3?dest-id=88838 nice history
  • NH
    Neil H.
    6 November 2016 @ 23:16
    Many investors who thought the markets would head south a number of years ago after the bounce in 2009 have been carried out. With active managers lagging badly andindexation capturing all the money is a tell tale signal that things will end badly. Timing it is the only issue
  • TW
    Tom W.
    6 November 2016 @ 22:37
    Brett, David, ,Jay - thank you for your replies to my question!! -Tom
  • PW
    Paul W.
    6 November 2016 @ 18:36
    Love the comment about time and being single So true in a global way,but if meet right gal then you have even more time
  • GS
    Gordon S.
    6 November 2016 @ 14:34
    Wow! Agree with other comments, again one of the best on RV! Thanks so much and please have him back, the last minutes were like no please don't stop here! What fascinates me though is this constant fear of crash, sure I believe a crash will come too. But when everyone is speaking of these 5T, 10T, 25T Fed only (!) balance sheet expansions why is no one fearing hyperinflation? Because that is the true endgame and is what I think will happen after the next big crash and subsequent reflation. Deflation can always be inflated back but how to do you stop hyperinflation? What is RVs thought on the UK right now? I think we are kind of seeing the UK being very cautious right now about massive printing and currency collapse control. I know RV is very skeptical of the EU but as a young person I see many friends leaving the UK right now and coming back to the EU. Many selling their GBP and apparently all the start up money is also leaving the UK. We also have property prices starting to collapse and consumer prices starting to pick up. Not a good combination of events.
  • BB
    Bojo B.
    5 November 2016 @ 21:32
    One of the very best interviews so far, thank you. Somebody as brilliant as Doug has had to build up a lot of patience over decades, even I watch all this in disbelief, and I am only 35. What can one even say at this point...
  • BD
    Bruce D.
    5 November 2016 @ 15:52
    What I find fascinating is that 14 listeners voted thumbs down? While we ALL have our opinions on what and why the worlds monetary system is as it is, you must try to understand what our options are....they are VERY limited due to the CB's decisions which have got us here. The fact that precious metals were mentioned as an asset class to invest in just Might be the ONLY option for the foreseeable future, worldwide. RV is the greatest asset I use to help my clients to both preserve and increase their wealth. NOTHING comes close in framing the world as is is vs. the constant BS we are fed with "normal financial media". The old rules have been broken, and a new mindset is critical if you plan on surviving what is coming...and the fact that it's a worldwide phenomenon will only increase its severity. S
  • SB
    Stewart B.
    5 November 2016 @ 13:27
    This has been one of the best. I want Grant's job - travelling the world talking to the most awesome minds!
  • DP
    David P.
    5 November 2016 @ 00:20
    Grant, thank you for having Doug on; it has been a long wait for those of us who read his superb blog each and every week, as I have done for the past ten years. Also, Grant, thank you and Raoul for the important service you are providing--as Doug Noland has done for over two decades--recording history as it is being made. These are extraordinary times and it will be both useful and gratifying, when whatever happens eventually does happen, to have abundant commentary on file from intelligent and credible professionals who understood what was going on all along. Perhaps their insights will prevent the reoccurrence of these dangerous conditions and foolish policies in the future...but I doubt it!
  • GE
    GABI E.
    4 November 2016 @ 14:34
    very interesting and useful interview !!!! thank you very much !!
  • JH
    Jay H.
    4 November 2016 @ 10:18
    @TOM W. Replying to your comment at 20:58 that Doug may be contradicting himself. -- I just listened to that part. He's saying that thinking is late in the game, "late stage speculative blow-off stuff". He's talking about the market thinking, the "I" in that sentence is most market participants or large allocators who are moving away from HFs and believe indexes are safe. He's not saying that's HIS view at the moment.
  • DS
    David S.
    4 November 2016 @ 06:56
    Re: Tom W. - I believe he said that a lot of investors just wanted to eliminate portfolio manager and "buy stocks.....high yield bonds, etc." I do not think that he was advocating this. I could be wrong, but that is the way I understood it.
  • SP
    Steve P.
    4 November 2016 @ 06:40
    One of RV's more sobering interviews. As an RV subscriber I would like to profoundly thank Grant and Raoul for instigating a service that I believe could eventually be our financial savior - superb insights via many a brilliant mind expressing thoughts and convictions on the current condition of a very lopsided financial world. How lucky we are to be privileged to such a high level of financial insight on a daily basis. No other media outlet comes close to educating on such a broad yet focused range of extremely relevant current investing topics. I salute you both . THANK YOU!!
  • dn
    duy n.
    4 November 2016 @ 02:23
    Thanks Mr. Noland for your insightful, valuable and free blog!!!!!! I've been reading it for a couple years now.
  • DB
    Dennis B.
    3 November 2016 @ 22:52
    A top-class interview that ranks alongside Mark Hart and Richard Koo as one of the best I have seen on RV. In a couple of years - maybe much sooner - I will show the tapescript to people who dismiss me as a perma-bear crackpot today, and they will be forced to admit that they should have listened. Thanks, Grant.
  • PB
    Peter B.
    3 November 2016 @ 22:37
    Humble and brilliant. Hard to beat that profile. Please, sir; Can I have more?
  • BW
    Brett W.
    3 November 2016 @ 22:05
    At 8:30 he meant not that he would by stocks, but that was what other people were thinking and doing.
  • TS
    Tim S.
    3 November 2016 @ 21:35
    One of the best, a true classic. It was long but I still wanted more. Three thumbs up.
  • TW
    Tom W.
    3 November 2016 @ 20:58
    Continuing from my previous comment... I went to the transcripts (that is a great feature), and at about 8:30 remaining, Doug says, "But I want to buy stocks, I want to buy high yielding stocks, I want to buy high yielding corporates, just-- that's all I want to do". But then a few minutes later, Doug says, "I think it's time to be risk averse. I'm a big fan of the precious metals, I think they're investable. To me, marketable securities, they're not investable to me because I don't know what the risk is". These statements seem to be in conflict. Does anyone else have thoughts on this? Thanks, -Tom
  • RW
    Raymond W.
    3 November 2016 @ 20:50
    I was one of the people who suggested that we have Doug on. Thanks real vision I enjoyed this. It seems to me that the central banks cannot back down and when necessary they will all do "whatever it takes". However, at some point people will lose faith in them as they carry things even further and further into the realm of ridiculousness. Once The faith in central bankers disappears I don't think there is anything that can be done to save the asset bubbles. We could still be several years from that happening unless political developments accelerate the process. I live just outside of Toronto. Today (Nov 3, 2016) the local papers reported that the average price of all homes across the Toronto region rose 21 per cent in past 12 months. This news does not make me feel good ... quite the contrary.
  • AM
    Aaron M.
    3 November 2016 @ 20:49
    Wow. Excellent all the way around. His emphasis on not calling tops was exceptional.
  • TW
    Tom W.
    3 November 2016 @ 20:48
    Great episode! At about 8:32 remaining did Doug say he currently LIKES directly holding high yield stocks and high yield bonds?
  • DS
    David S.
    3 November 2016 @ 20:48
    Great interview and better advice, especially on the high risk of shorting the market. The focus on central banks is important to figuring out where we are and the probability of a terrible outcome. This is where money can be protected and/or made now. I wish, however, RV would spend some time on the causes of different financial bubbles. This might be a good topic for a short series of interview since bubbles seem to be a fact of the human experience. The forensics of bubbles from the Dutch tulip bubble to now.
  • an
    adrian n.
    3 November 2016 @ 19:56
    Doug Noland. What an understated legend he is. His creditbubblebulletin is a treasure trove. Thanks RealVis. Thanks Grant.
  • fc
    frank c.
    3 November 2016 @ 19:54
    Humble, intelligent and confirmation that we have no clue when this is going to end.....amazing how such people at the top are lost and confirm the idiocracy we live in!
  • KO
    Kieran O.
    3 November 2016 @ 19:27
    Another great video! I too am in the process of starting my own fund, and I feel that same anxiety to open it ASAP. The market looks down right ugly and the politics is potentially even uglier!
  • RM
    Richard M.
    3 November 2016 @ 19:16
    Another great Master Class! Get ready folks - it is coming (just be patient and nimble until then)!!!