NEIL HOWE: We all live diagonal lines. We grow older as time goes on, right? And no one had ever written a history following the diagonal, following the life as we actually live it. Fourth turnings, although obviously painful for everyone, painful for everyone particularly is invested in the old order serve a very necessary almost biological function.
GRANT WILLIAMS: With every passing day, the world of finance seemingly becomes more complex and harder to figure out. Financial information is distilled into sound bites for increasingly time for audience. When more than ever before, a deeper, less superficial understanding of the many factors affecting the global economy is required in order to fully understand both the risks and opportunities. In this series, my goal is to travel with people whose understanding of a set of financial situations dwarfs my own, and to take the time needed to dig beneath the headlines and improve my knowledge of both the situations in question and the investment implications that surround them. And the best way I know of doing it properly is by going on the road.
Washington D.C. is home to many formidable institutions. But Neil's keen to point out another housed inconspicuously in the peaceful Virginia countryside.
NEIL HOWE: You would never believe that in this wonderful pastural, leafy Vernal excerpts of D.C. that you would be seeing the heart of our imperial intelligence network, right?
GRANT WILLIAMS: Langley, Virginia.
NEIL HOWE: Huge part of our black budget and all these various special operations and intelligence agencies and commands are all actually run by this agency right next to Langley High School and next to the all these wonderful little parks. So, as you go down, you will see there will be a left turn lane for this nondescript agency. Don't take it unless you have security clearance because I tell you, innocent people like take that left turn, and they're stopped and interrogated for about 15 minutes before they let them turn their cars around.
GRANT WILLIAMS: This is a nondescript left.
NEIL HOWE: Yeah, this is not where you want to turn left.
GRANT WILLIAMS: Okay. There's a big sign that says warning at the very least. Restricted US Government Installation. There we go.
NEIL HOWE: There you go. But needless to say, all these trees around here are filled with various eavesdrops devices.
GRANT WILLIAMS: They're listening to it right now. So, it's good that we're not doing that couple of karaoke I was talking about.
Washington D.C. is the seat of power, not just for America, but in many instances, for the whole world. And amidst its familiar architecture, there are monuments to generational changes, which offer clues as to not just the personalities of those generations, but their character and the likely way the world would change as one makes way for the next.
NEIL HOWE: So, Grant, this is it. You might call this an amphitheater of victory. Look at each of these states, as a garland of victory hung from them. This is the same garland you may give a give to a victor returning to Rome in a triumph.
GRANT WILLIAMS: Yeah. The laurels over the head, yeah.
NEIL HOWE: And they're enormous. You can imagine the crowd screaming on every side. By the way, another interesting thing about the GI generation is that you know where we built the biggest football stadiums in America, like Ohio Stadium and the Orange Ball and Stanford and UCLA, all these big- we built them in the 1920s for this generation and football. So, from the very beginning, Americans wanted to see this generation, these kids in huge public places. Just kind of in this size, right. And here you see it.
When a boomer like Donald Trump begins to say make America great again, do you think he has some memories, some historical memory of an America like this? And you look at this thing, and there's another thing that comes to your mind about it. It's not only grand, but it's meant to be grand. And much of the criticism- because the time this thing was built, America was run by boomers. And so, what was their complaint about this thing? Looks like it was built by the very fascist they were fighting.
And it reminds us something, right? It reminds us of the world of the '30s. And this is what we forget about it. Actually, I think that's part of the genius of this memorial, is that it is from the period. It's not supposed to reflect the sensibilities of the 2000, 00s the late 1990s. It reflects the sensibilities of the 1930s. You have on the one hand, this huge edifice saying Pacific. And on the other hand, this huge edifice, saying Atlantic, the global reach of what this generation did. CBs and thousands of miles away from here, clearing islands, developing airfields. Wherever they went, they remade the worlds.
And look at this monument that said this is the birth of a Golden Age. But there's one thing we forget. All the Golden Ages of history always start with a huge crisis. There is no Golden Age that doesn't come after a crisis that reorders everything in the world and then it enables the new generation to be fresh molded into something, a generation that's able to fit all the pieces together in a new way. And that was this amazing generation. And all of those junior citizens we see in these murals that all join labor unions later on late '40s, 1950s, '60s. As soon as they started retiring from labor unions, they all joined AARP.
GRANT WILLIAMS: Right, right. Yeah.
NEIL HOWE: And they all voted for social security because that was a promise that FDR made to them, that they would be secure. Remember, risk aversion, security, they wanted that security. They would have the unions that would give them the defined benefit pension plan and all that stuff. And ultimately, they would have social security for the first time. And Social Security had legislated 1935 was very slow to get underway for retirees, and all they got, hundred percent call indexing and all the rest when the GI generations started to retire. So, it was a payback on FDR's promise to them.
GRANT WILLIAMS: To listen to this is a very big reason why I wanted to come and talk to you here. But it's because the parallels are there. And people are going to be listening to this as I am and hear it all and thinking it's happening again. This idea of a crisis happening again, this idea of a generation that feel like they're owed something and in many cases are and promises made to them. And, it's all coalescing again.
NEIL HOWE: And each location of the generation in its appropriate phase of life is lined up where it was back then meaning that, yeah, you have this new special, protected, sheltered, community-oriented conformist, achievement- minded, optimistic generation begin to come of age and you could say a lot of bad things about it too. Cobbold and Pollyanna-ish and all of this stuff. So, they're beginning to come of age.
And then you have a generation that's entering midlife now, which is exactly like in the '30s. The last generation, which is Generation X. These are the pragmatists. These are the cynics. They never expected anything. And the last generation never expect anything, by the way, they never got it.
GRANT WILLIAMS: They never got it. Right. Yeah.
NEIL HOWE: So, they were the poorest generation of elders relative to the young in American history back in the late 50s, early 60s. So, that's the new generation X moving into midlife, they're going to be the decision makers in this next crisis that people have to make the decisions on the ground. And then you have a highly moralistic and visionary, idealistic generation of elders. That was FDR. That was Henry Stimson. That was Albert Einstein. That was that generation, a misionary generation, entering old age. That was the constellation back then. It's the constellation we have today. And one thing, as we go on today, we might look at who's going to play the role of the great champion.
GRANT WILLIAMS: History provides many clues as to the nature of fourth turnings, and having Neil out, the unseen brought everything into much sharper relief.
NEIL HOWE: This is the reflecting pool that goes along the mall. It is magnificent. Keep in mind that this layout of the mall and the reflecting pools is almost a laying out or putting on display all of America's fourth turnings. The one end, you've got the Lincoln Memorial with all of his Gettysburg address and the second inaugural address. In the middle, you have World War II monument. Further down, you have the Washington Memorial, the father of our country, the Revolutionary War. Slightly off to one side, you have the Jefferson Memorial. And then at the extreme far end, facing Lincoln, is Ulysses S. Grant in a very dynamic kinetic memorial to his more active role in that conflict.
So, it's really amazing, right? You see all of our nation's foundational turning points or constitutional resets. All along this D.C. mall.
GRANT WILLIAMS: And conflict, to your point, is conflict, it's resolution. It's always conflict.
NEIL HOWE: It's always conflict. And in some cases, it's to what stress does the action? It's a great contrast here with the Grant Memorial, which is all about the guy who was in charge of bringing it to the completion, the executor, the general, the guy who had to send all these soldiers to their deaths. And on the other hand, the great champion, Abraham Lincoln, with all of his morals and principles about why we fought this war and what it represented. So, in one way, the symbol, the ideal, and on the other hand, the action. And when we talk about generational types, Grant and Lincoln, two very different generations that as so often the case in fourth turnings, they're able to work together.
GRANT WILLIAMS: Yeah.
The idea of conflict is everywhere and talking to Neil left me no doubt as to the importance of understanding that dynamic in the coming years. Something that the memorial to the Korean War made painfully obvious.
So, this is a whole different ball of wax. That's what, they completed it.
NEIL HOWE: This is a different war. This is a different generation. And this was the silent generation, man. Well, there's still a lot of GIs were still serving. This was the second war, right, meant to preserve the peace. Not to gain anything new, simply to preserve what had been won. The generation that fought in this was very much known for bringing a whole different dimension to you. This generation made its news as a college class of '49 taking no chances as Fortune magazine said at the bottom of their magazine. They didn't want to change the world. They wanted- or change the system, they went to work within the system, right? So, they kept their heads down. This is the generation that didn't want anything to go on their permanent record.
During the McCarthy era, in the early '50s when the GIs, now beginning to settle down with kids were chewing themselves apart for who was and was not a member of the Communist Party. This generation said nothing. They were squeaky clean, right? And they were going to get in all the plump positions by remaining spotless, taking no risk. They were the ones who wanted the 30 or invisible handshakes with their employer, getting married in their early age, wearing the suit and ties- just doing everything by the letter, right? And this somewhat traumatized generation, because they were the children of the Great Depression and World War II.
So, they knew at what cost this new order had been built. Their mission was not to mess it up. Not to mess it up. To be the technicians to keep it going. Now, Korean war came alliance, Truman declared it was a police action. And it had no possibility of victory. That old Warhurst MacArthur was jettison, we were actually going to beat China or do anything like that, just to maintain the status quo. So, here you have this generation, and think of the different psychological feelings. You look at this from the GI Memorial, right?
So, you've got 38 soldiers, 38 months, fighting for the 38th parallel, and then it's all here. A meaningless number, the Chosen Few. But I think when you look at this, these guys, the one thing that always interests me is they all look very interesting as individuals. Not like with you, guys, not like you were [inaudible], where they're all just- they all have an interior life. And they're all wandering with these paunches through horrible weather to where?
GRANT WILLIAMS: Well, and they sit apart, they sit apart from each other.
NEIL HOWE: Yeah, they sit apart. And who knows where they're going exactly?
GRANT WILLIAMS: But, this is it rather, they're all looking in different directions.
NEIL HOWE: Exactly. So, it's a little bit of that. We're obeying orders, we're doing our duty, but to win it. And ultimately, to win was a great word except simply finally, at the end, to redraw the same ceasefire line at the beginning of the war? Wow, that's an achievement.
GRANT WILLIAMS: Yeah. To your point earlier on. It just shows you the different mindset of a generation. So, they're not just the generation depicted by these memorials, but the generation who've commissioned it and built it and designed it and maybe they're the same generation, but I suspect not.
NEIL HOWE: So, interestingly, this was done in the early '90s. I think this is actually Christened or brought out to the public in 1993, much before the World War II Memorial. And in a second, we're going to go over to the Vietnam Memorial, which is actually brought out even earlier. It just shows you how boomers dominate everything, right? Boomers got their monument first.
And what we see with the Vietnam Memorial is something completely different than this very human, personal, sophisticated portrait of a generation that we really feel you want to know as people. This isn't the greatest generation. This is the nicest generation.
GRANT WILLIAMS: I find this one really moving. And I think it is just because it's so personal.
NEIL HOWE: It's pointed.
GRANT WILLIAMS: It's pointed. Exactly right.
NEIL HOWE: You look at each one of these people and you almost recognize someone. Yeah, I totally agree with that.
GRANT WILLIAMS: But let's go and take a look at the Vietnam War because it is very different. And again, it just tells this continuing story about how the generations change. And there's a lot to talk about, and specifically the boomer generation, which, when we get to the capital, and we talk a little bit about the