The Japanese yen was the worst-performing major currency against the U.S. dollar in the first half of 2022, as investors worldwide, from global macro hedge funds to Japanese retail day-traders, piled into an extremely crowded “hawkish Fed versus dovish BoJ policy divergence” trade: Short the yen. July’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting might have changed all that. Real Vision’s Tokyo-based global markets editor Weston Nakamura made a “long JPY” call heading into that FOMC meeting. In comprehensive follow-up commentary, Weston explains the mechanics behind the strongest rally in the yen since March 2020 by analyzing yen futures and options activity, shares additional details on shorting the euro against the yen, and forecasts yen action for the second half of the year. See Weston’s Twitter thread from Friday, July 29, on the yen short squeeze, and follow him on Twitter @acrossthespread for real-time market commentary. Watch Weston’s previous video on the first half of 2022, “How the Bank of Japan Blew Up Markets in 2022,” here: https://youtu.be/_0a9DuqhVvU.
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