Uranium Oversupply Is Over

Published on
April 5th, 2017
22 minutes

Why Everyone’s Got It Wrong on Bonds – Raoul Pal

Uranium Oversupply Is Over

Presentations ·
Featuring Mike Alkin

Published on: April 5th, 2017 • Duration: 22 minutes

Mike Alkin of the Stock Catalyst Report details the market opportunity in uranium, with an anticipated end to the supply glut and an emerging energy security subtext in the US. Mike believes the current market narrative is misplaced and it’s now time to pay attention to the dislocation between supply and demand.


  • my
    markettaker y.
    28 July 2018 @ 19:38
    Anyone watching this now (a year later, more carnage) should check out the SmithWeekly report on the topic. It's only $15. Worth far more than that. It runs through the set-up and conservative and aggressive ways to trade it.
  • RF
    Rob F.
    6 April 2017 @ 14:50
    Good presentation summing up the uranium market, I think a few aspects to consider that are missed in this presentation are: 1) amount of reactors scheduled to go offline in coming years, due to age/regulatory issues, and 2) deflation seen in other energy sources. Bear market may continue longer than indicated here.
    • my
      markettaker y.
      28 July 2018 @ 19:35
      how can we judge the length of the bear market, and what leading indicators can we look for to identify when it may be truly coming to an end?
  • DL
    Douglas L.
    5 June 2017 @ 03:24
    India and China are building new reactors like mad. Spot is WAY under production costs. Problem is that the market for contracts is not transparent. There is also some oversupply. This will move so fast once contracts are renegotiated. Who knows when, but this can't continue forever. My bets UEC and SYH.
    • my
      markettaker y.
      28 July 2018 @ 19:32
      could it extend to 2020, 2021??
  • WP
    William P.
    7 May 2018 @ 04:17
    Great report, covers all the important points.
  • JU
    Jay U.
    16 September 2017 @ 18:35
    From what he's saying about the United States' precarious position on Uranium Supply/Demand, it seems any US producers should do better than others. Reminds me of the problems with foreign oil dependence in the early 1970's. Domestic oil producers did fantastically over the next few years.
  • AP
    Andrew P.
    6 April 2017 @ 14:33
    Be interesting to see the supply impacts of an Olympic Dam expansion where uranium is just a byproduct credit...iirc numbers floated in the past was ~10,000 tpa increase in uranium production with an expansion.
    • ww
      will w.
      8 April 2017 @ 14:01
      Unable to understand what you're trying to convey. Please fill in the blanks (at least the key ones) in your note - in ordinary layperson terms, please!
    • KA
      Kevin A.
      8 April 2017 @ 16:57
      Not seeing any blanks, key or un-key. Might want to be more specific in your request. If you don't understand what was said, then I would stick to the URA ETF, or stay on the sidelines.
    • JU
      Jay U.
      16 September 2017 @ 18:18
      Olympic Dam is a huge body of ore in Australia. Has copper, gold, silver and uranium. Largest resource of Uranium in the world, but only 3rd largest producer at 3000 tpa. Majority of it has been sitting unmined for years. BHP looking into expanding production there. If they produce it primary for the other metals, they might sell off the Uranium for very cheap. This would dump excess supply and drop Uranium prices. More info: http://www.bhp.com/-/media/bhp/regulatory-information-media/copper/olympic-dam/0000/draft-eis-documents/drafteisexecutivesummary.pdf
  • hg
    henry g.
    6 April 2017 @ 01:05
    I tried googling The Stock Catalyst Report but I couldn't find it. I was only able to find Michael Alkin's Linkedin page which only mentions his job as a portfolio manager. Has any one else been able to find it?
    • S
      Sigurður .
      21 July 2017 @ 20:25
  • JL
    Jinny L.
    15 April 2017 @ 14:43
    Who are some others to follow in this space? Any good newsletters,websites,blogs? Thanks
    • WC
      William C.
      17 April 2017 @ 20:53
      William Clairmont
    • JV
      Justin V.
      15 May 2017 @ 05:21
      Palisade Radio on youtube run by Collin Kettell
    • JV
      Justin V.
      15 May 2017 @ 05:24
      Can't go past Rick Rule either
    • SW
      Scott W.
      23 May 2017 @ 18:14
      Sprott Global Resource Investments LLC
    • TM
      The-First-James M.
      25 June 2017 @ 21:27
      Marin Katusa/Katusa Research.
  • BB
    Brian B.
    5 April 2017 @ 20:49
    The investor psychology well displayed even on Real Vision. As a Uranium bull, I was expecting this video to be widely viewed and commented on as soon it was released. 7 thumbs up and I'm first to comment well into the afternoon of the release. That's all the market sentiment I need to know. BUY BUY BUY
    • JV
      Justin V.
      15 May 2017 @ 06:28
      @Brian B, where do you get your research from for Uranium? I have a few names since listening to Rick Rule and Collin Kettell, but would be interested in hearing other people's research too.
  • Nz
    Nicholas z.
    9 April 2017 @ 08:43
    I agree. Uranium investirs need to go and read the free Uranium Redbook to throughly understand Supply/Demand dynamics. Japanese nuclear restarts are the key to siaking up the excess inventories and getting prices to move up.
    • dd
      darrell d.
      11 April 2017 @ 19:25
      Agreed. I wonder how much $$ they are spending on the plants. Don't will not put a dime into refits if there is zero chance of restarts.
    • JV
      Justin V.
      15 May 2017 @ 05:27
      Is this the Redbook you're talking about @Nicholas Z? https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/pressreleases/new-edition-of-red-book-uranium-report-is-published
  • AH
    Aaron H.
    13 April 2017 @ 02:07
    Enjoyed the format and cadence.
  • RE
    Rachel E.
    12 April 2017 @ 11:36
    Does anyone know if URA is the only uranium fund?
  • MZ
    Munawar Z.
    12 April 2017 @ 10:38
    If anyone really wants the price of Uranium to go up etc let a neocon think tank see the last 3 min of the presentation !!!
  • RW
    Reid W.
    11 April 2017 @ 22:11
    Great , thorough and succinct pitch on what could be a great big long term macro trade and winner. Great work
  • MN
    Mark N.
    8 April 2017 @ 19:20
    Don't recall the source (think Exploration Insights?) where they mentioned that long term contracts are running out and getting renewed for the next decade at these low prices, which could dampen the upside of producers.
    • dd
      darrell d.
      11 April 2017 @ 19:28
      I cant see many producers locking into these prices IF cost are greater.
  • FM
    Fraser M.
    10 April 2017 @ 16:03
    Just paid for my RV subscription 10x over with this trade - great stuff - thanks.
    • BA
      Brandon A.
      10 April 2017 @ 20:40
      What did you buy if you don't mind me asking?
    • dd
      darrell d.
      11 April 2017 @ 19:23
      I'm locked into Uranium Participation Corp. .. U (TSX). Only risk is time on this one.
  • CZ
    Cyprian Z.
    6 April 2017 @ 22:55
    Good thesis but IMO risk reward isn't that great considering the world moving to renewables, industry sensitivity to a single event (think Fukushima)..
    • S
      Sigurður .
      10 April 2017 @ 17:12
      Renewables are still in their infancy. Still to unreliable, expensive to store, but a great add on to various countries grids.
  • PN
    Paul N.
    5 April 2017 @ 21:42
    Ironic. If environmentalists wanted to end the use of fossil fuels within a decade, nuclear power is the most viable option right now. It must be a part of the clean energy future. Just don't put decades-old reactors on a tectonic fault line on the equator!!
    • ww
      will w.
      8 April 2017 @ 13:56
      I agree, and then some - I'd say no more old-era-design reactors ANYWHERE. But, I think you mean not on a coastline. Proximity to the equator seems irrelevant.
    • PN
      Paul N.
      9 April 2017 @ 21:50
      Equator is where the majority of tropical storms are formed. Hotbed of weather activity.
  • Nz
    Nicholas z.
    9 April 2017 @ 08:47
    For those with a little more risk appetite- have a look at Deep Yellow Ltd on the ASX (DYL). John Borshoff, ex Paladin (1c to $10 in last Uranium bull mkt) CEO is heading it up...Sprott have invested. He knows how to work the financing...
  • DP
    Devraj P.
    8 April 2017 @ 18:25
    Very well presented content. Cover all aspects in detail in such a short video. Simply unbelievable. Love to see a format similar for upcoming videos in future..
  • GB
    Grant B.
    7 April 2017 @ 13:53
    One of the better ones the last two weeks. I am finding too many lower quality videos. Only one or two per week are actually of interest. What is the fascination with Australia? Lower value add IMHO. Ex sell side broker in Canada FWIW.
    • ww
      will w.
      8 April 2017 @ 14:13
      Perhaps you missed Daniel Want's stellar presentation? As with his first RV presentation last summer, his insights are invaluable for making sense of the topsy-turvy worlds. And Jeff Snider & Michael Green's recent presentations (and Green's additional interview(s) with others) are other superbly useful ones for our understanding.
  • DW
    Doug W.
    8 April 2017 @ 13:10
    Like to see more presentations like this-well explained thesis in a sector.
  • JR
    Jon R.
    7 April 2017 @ 15:47
    Would really have liked to hear his favorite investments to play the theme. More conservative, more aggressive, etc. Some hedge fund mgrs did accurately predict the subprime credit crisis, but lost a lot of money because they were too early and/or bet on the wrong vehicle.
  • CE
    Carl E.
    7 April 2017 @ 06:43
    What's the best way to play Uranium? Through the ETF or the mining companies that produce it? Thanks.
    • gg
      gurdeep g.
      7 April 2017 @ 08:17
      Not an expert in Mining stocks but I gone with the URA ETF. Nice dividend also, approx 6%
    • JS
      John S.
      7 April 2017 @ 09:41
      Uranium Participation Corp holds physical uranium and is a direct play on the commodity rather than being a miner with associated operational risk, etc
  • RE
    Rachel E.
    6 April 2017 @ 23:07
    Excellent report. Agree with him.
  • TS
    Tarek S.
    6 April 2017 @ 14:06
    UEC - Uranium Energy Corp - great leadership with Amir Adnani, in situ mining, hub and spoke Texas-based model. Great uranium play, uranium unhedged
  • AB
    Alain B.
    6 April 2017 @ 11:09
    Great documentary by Robert Stone on clean energy (nuclear power), Pandora's Promise. http://pandoraspromise.com
  • DR
    De R.
    6 April 2017 @ 06:38
    IMO, near term price could go lower not because of supply/demand fundamental, but due to strong dollar and deflationary event on the horizon (what if oil dips to lower price ie 10- 20$ that could still pressure Uranium price for awhile), if price still maintain at such level despite of the crisis, buy buy buy, if it dips buy even more. With regards to position sizing and asset allocation, it is good to listen to rick rule's methodology on resource investing.
  • FV
    Fredrik V.
    6 April 2017 @ 06:04
    Its not only Russia controlling the US supply, all is routed through China: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-01/kazakhs-clinch-23-billion-of-deals-with-china-after-tenge-drop
  • CT
    Christopher T.
    6 April 2017 @ 03:26
    Love this piece! Please include more industry/sector deep dives like this
  • JS
    John S.
    6 April 2017 @ 02:37
    Uranium Participation Corp holds physical uranium and is a direct play on the commodity rather than being a miner with associated operational risk, etc
  • JS
    John S.
    6 April 2017 @ 02:34
    Possible uranium plays are CCJ, UUUU, UEC in the US and FCU, PTU, GXU
  • RD
    RP D.
    6 April 2017 @ 01:13
    @Tom I think Miners...that's where the leverage is. No many solid names in the space but NXE is worth researching.. Good segment, thx RV
  • GS
    Greg S.
    6 April 2017 @ 01:00
    Mike presents some great ideas, but I sure want to follow up on these with my own research. He is smart enough to not present a great investment idea and a time frame in the same interview. Size accordingly.
  • MV
    Michael V.
    6 April 2017 @ 00:51
    This is a good one. I've been following uranium for years, and I'm very happy that Realvision continues to touch on this subject. Thanks
  • RA
    Robert A.
    5 April 2017 @ 22:57
    URA is the ETF for some Canadian mines and is the way to play it, IMO. I've owned it for more than a year because 2 different RV guests mentioned it in two separate older interviews and said it was one of the best risk/rewards that they knew of. I've watched every RV interview and have learned to pay close attention---to my financial benefit. Just saying.
  • SC
    Sean C.
    5 April 2017 @ 22:54
    So I didn't get a clearly defined idea if it's wise to invest in the miners or just the uranium commodity outright. I'm guess miners as well? Anyone is welcome to answer.
  • gg
    gurdeep g.
    5 April 2017 @ 22:15
    Apologies. The video I gather was released at market close. Great thesis laid out by Mike
  • gg
    gurdeep g.
    5 April 2017 @ 22:14
  • TW
    Tom W.
    5 April 2017 @ 21:33
    Cameco investor preso is available here for more info on nuclear power industry and CCJ's part in it: https://www.cameco.com/media/media-library/documents/investor-presentation