Raoul I would love to see your update on the bond market!

You can find the chart slides to this presentation by downloading the Transcript or through the following link: https://we.tl/bz41sJGpYp

Well, now the bond is record long, lol. But the dollar, oh my! Bearish dollar and positive carry (EM) has been the trade of the year. Technicals rule. Fundamentals are rubbish, again. Problem is, EM saw its biggest inflows ever on Friday and EM hedges are being removed. I don't know when the correction is coming, but with the huge surge in EM assets & currencies (many up ~20% YTD), it's due for a correction before the next leg higher. Dollar may not retrace much yet tho, because it's in wave 3, which is when everyone begins to realize, if they've been long USD they're dead wrong and must change. Lots of runway left in the dollar bear market, as BoAML tabulated USD bulls in January as the 3rd most crowded trade ever. EurUsd technical targets/resistance: 1.16, 1.28, 1.60

interestingly, the permanent portfolio is also signalling to buy long bonds this year. 2016 showed VOO (s&p 500) +11.4%, GLD (gold) +6.5%, and TLT (long bonds) -1.9%. so the largest rotation should be out of stocks and into long bonds this year. fyi, on jan 1, 2016, it was signalling that the largest rotation should be from cash (+0.5%) to gold (-11%).

I've watched this video a few times. It is an outstanding video delivering concise macro play ideas and how the different asset classes correlate and translate with one another. Really glad I found Real Vision...

IF you expect yields to come down to 2%, why are you recommending to go long Dollar?

love it and it's already looking pretty prescient with the big move in TLT and gold...dollar to quickly follow suit?

I see a contradictory statement about strong dollar and low activity. If the activity saw in ISM is due to the rebound in oil and it will rollover, we should see also a weaker USD.

Kudos for keeping it under 15 min. Agree w the arguments, but what if global investors change their allocation to UST in favor of other asset classes? Granted, I personally don't see where that threa

Are we entering the Fekete Time? - http://www.professorfekete.com/articles/AEFThirdDailyBellInterviewRev11713.pdf - Hyperdeflation!!!

I would like an update on this topic with Julian Brigden.

I really love the amount of great feedback on the trade. With all due respect however, i think we are missing the big picture (and i mean big picture). Rates are still near crisis levels (and i mean real rates here)....we are just at the wrong price. Yes short positioning is big on paper but as i mentioned below, people are "short UST" but long bonds elsewhere (EM). Doing a trade on positioning just for the sake of being contrarian is not advisable in my humble opinion. Lastly, the big mover here will be Europe not the US. So yes US rates will outperform the rest of the other bond markets. German yields at negative rates is just wrong (reminds me of China 10 years ago). Basically G3 rates are trading at artificial levels. Like i tell my trading team, what you think is risky isn't and what you think is safe isn't. Again, with all due respect to everyone but it is important to consider the other side of the trade as well. Take care!

I actually like these short format, limited topic updates. Easy to digest and consume. I also like the fact that Raoul lays out trade in terms traders identify with. On DXY, I suspect it is a H&S, but always open to what the market is telling you. Since we are right at neckline, should be easy tell over next week of so with high probability%. Enjoy RV!

We need a Rewind with Alex Gurevich

Although probably the shortest and simplest of Raoul's videos I think this one is the best so far. Clear and concise explanation of a interesting and contrarian trade idea.

Jay H. I'm really not sure that Long Vix will necessarily work if Raoul is right. We could just as easily have a steady grinding rally in bonds as inflation expectations ease. TLT could grind from 121.43 to 130 or even 140 without a VIX spike. Of course if it happened very quickly....

I think this could be a really good series. The main comment I have is that your estimate of "GDP + inflation" depends on which numbers you use. the NY Fed's Nowcast is projecting 3.0% for Q1 and 2.7% for Q2. I think GDPNow was thrown off from their 2.9% projection from last quarter (so this quarter's estimate is lower). Also, core CPI has not been much below 1.5% yoy in the last five years, and this was when oil was at extreme lows. So then you could argue that the long end of the curve should be at 4.5% (3.0% + 1.5%). In any event, using any reasonable GDP estimate and inflation estimate will get you well north of 2%.

Thanks Raoul. The demographic wave hitting retirement adds fuel to the fire. Most have paltry savings so they will be spending less - whether they want to or not. Also consider the target date funds that have been sold to investors in 401(k) and IRA plans. They will all be moving money to bonds systematically, regardless of whether or not the equity sale and bond buy prices many any sense. Please keep us informed if you see something on the horizon that might overwhelm the deflationary forces. Huge govt spending comes to my mind, but that will automatically be restricted if interest rates go up. For now, this trade looks like a beauty. You're the best mate!

Raoul, now you have to have a special presentation telling everyone when to get out of this trade, maybe in 2 years?

The ZN futures contract allows the short to deliver an issue that's a lot less than 10 years to maturity. Cheapest to deliver currently is around 7 years to maturity. Therefore, holding those futures or the IEF ETF will not give you the same exposure to duration or convexity as you would have by holding a constant maturity 10Y note. Aside from being the most well known, the TLT ETF will perform more in line with the longer end of the UST curve. The TN futures contract is the one that specifies delivery of an issue much closer to 10 years to maturity.

in hope that fellow subscribers are able to tolerate one dumb question per individual I would like to ask a question. When the analysis is done on the 10 yr, is there a particular reason to recommend the 20yr (TLT) ETF as the instrument with which to play this thesis. Any objections/issues if considering the etf for the nearest thing to the 10 yr namely IEF, or ZN5 futures. Any help appreciated. Sorry if I'm testing peoples patience / Mike

raoul is da man!

If inflation expectations are going to drop, I'd expect fund flows away from equities and into "safe" bonds. They'll just suck up the liquidity in bonds, where ever it can be had. The parallel here is that indexes will sell off. VIX will spike, so being long vol probably a good hedge. It's going to be a bumpy ride if Raoul is right!

looks like the DXY is not following suit @ 99 but long TLT and PM should benefit as the reflation/Trump trade fades.

Interesting. DXY on Nov 9=98.5, now 99.3 (+0.81%), TILT on Nov 9 was 90.47, now 98.53 (+8.91%). S&P500 Nov 9= 2163, now 2344 (+8.37%) so the $ has given back almost all the Trump Rally, bonds & stocks still way down & up. So long bonds definitely better risk/reward than $ to me. One caveat on inflation and not mentioned by Raoul is wage infaltion, for the first time since 2008 it's back. That might make this inflation rise a bit more persistent. I'm not sure. But Yellen watching labor data closely.

Very good presentation. To the point, and good charts and theory to support the thesis. However, everything Raul has said in this presenation is completely opposite to that of Michael Oliver from MSA.

As a 27-year old millennial, I can state with confidence that our generation is in no shape to take the consumption baton from our elders and spend our way back to the glory days of 1995. In general, we are underemployed, over-indebted and miseducated. I don't buy the thesis that millennials are in any position to drive sustainably higher rates of consumption or to keep asset prices at today's levels once boomers begin to sell down their stocks and real estate in earnest. Michael Green's recent presentation on this dynamic of boomer asset selling is one very much worth watching. Balance sheets (government, corporate and household), all need to be restructured and the global monetary system likely needs to be reworked wholesale before we can have sustainable growth in employment, wages and asset prices again. When the average boomer was 30 years old, they had housing prices at reasonable levels relative to income, the S&P trading at 8x earnings, bond yields in the double digits and balance sheets that were vastly less leveraged than they are now. Ask yourself this: how many 30-year olds do you know of today who can afford to buy a house, a car and raise two kids? And borrowing at 100% LTV to do it doesn't count. To Olivier B's point, millennials could indeed drive growth in 5-10 years' time, but serious deflation and restructuring has to happen first... keep an eye out for that fourth turning.

Excellent presentation. Raoul Pal as always is brilliant. I am taking a lot out of this presentation. However the camera works is far below par I am afraid. Raoul is not a criminal so who's shitty idea was it to do a side view of him when he is looking straight at the camera?

Not so sure about the demographics narrative (baby boomers retiring as the sure inevitable force that will keep driving down rates, inflation and GDP). Millenniums are a powerful force who might eventually take over and stimulate strong growth (in 5, 10 years?). Maybe government in charge will manage to sustain the economy until this happens (bridge the gap between generations).

Very perplexed by the seemingly contradictory views presented here. Unless Raoul meant it as a relative value trade between treasuries and DXY. If, as in Raoul's view, dollar rates go back down significantly, USDJPY will be crushed. USDEUR as well, especially with a market friendly outcome in French elections (still base case).

Thanks! Let put on that trade!

Thanks for your sharp insight! Absolutely love this service. I live in Toronto where we have a hyperinflationary housing bubble currently. Lower yields is not something anyone with an independent mind wants to hear, but thanks for the alert about how such a development is likely.

Great video. I agree with much of the thesis and never really bought in to the reflation trade narrative, as I believe it was more market herding mentality and QE, more than anything else. I too see the US 10yr sub 2% this year, but not so sure on the long DXY call. If oil, inflation is set to fall along with GDP, then rate rises will be less steep than expected or may not happen at all (exp of 3 may turn out to be 0) then that will dampen DXY.

Long term trends such as the secular bull market in bonds don't change over easily. People I believe need to ask themselves "what has changed over the last 6-12 months?" if the answer is honestly "nothing", then you have your answer. I agree with this on a fundamental level, the reliance on debt, worsening demographics, means that interest rates cannot go much higher. It will take a structural shift on the market to change things, I think it will be a burst in inflation personally, but it could 1 of 10 other options. Looking at the burst in inflation that we've had, we can see that oil, copper etc. have all risen which has translated into higher inflation in the short run. I don't think this a trend shift so I agree with Raoul.

excellent, thank you

Thanks, Raoul. Very interesting and useful, as usual.

Raoul, excellent presentation that includes macro analysis and examples of how to put that knowledge to work, Thank you!

This is a gem Raoul. The market seems to have indeed gotten itself a little ahead re:inflation expectations but only because RV viewers had JB spotting it way ahead of the pack. Just can't help but restate Stephen Diggle's Rewind : "Could you make a trading profit? Absolutely. Is that something that you wanna do? NO WAY!!! ... one last mean-reverting trend it in, its probably the height of recklessness." I'm not as keen on the DXY trade as I feel participants remain vested and the reflation bandwagon has not derailed (perhaps missing out since Nov 16) and EuroDollar funding stresses hasn't really shown any acute stresses. China's recent liquidity tightening seems more of a pressing issue so I'd rather keep an eye on yuan strength for a potential risk sell-off/USTs rally?

The Long Bond Trade is Compelling however, I would rather own Yen than dollars for this phase of the cycle..

The Long Bond Trade is Compelling however, I would rather own Yen than dollars for this phase of the cycle..

Thank you Raoul! What do you think about the Euro in relation to DXY? If $$ is going up then Euro should be going down, however, with more hawkish Draghi, plus potential positive outcomes in French and German elections, Euro should be on its way up. What do you think?

Great analysis, as always. Thank you!

So QE4 is coming as well?

King Kanute ;)

Thanks Raoul!

Great piece I agree with the set up, add to that that the S&P 500 has seen a lot of exuberance at record levels, which could see a sharp reversal on realization that reflation is a myth. The reason we can see a strong US dollar in a weak US economy will be the risk off flows bringing money back into USD, Compounded by weak commodity prices driving commodity currencies lower. I dont think this will apply to Yen and Euro as much.

Preach! I completely agree this is one of the most compelling trades out there right now. Nonsense reflation narrative that everyone believes in? Check. Everyone short bond futures? Check. Favorable long and short term chart patterns? Check. One more thing that Raoul didn't mention which I think is important is that even if the Fed does "raise rates" one or more times this year, I highly doubt it impacts the long end. This is a huge component of the bear thesis on bonds and it really doesn't hold water in my eyes. Yield curves have inverted before and they can do so again. Greenspan's conundrum was that he raised the fed funds rate by 425 bps from 2004-06 and yet the long end barely moved. A short time later, yields fell sharply during the 2007-09 crisis period. I think we're set up for something similar, but this time the magnitude of the price gains should be even greater as convexity amplifies price moves at lower yields. Assume the 30Y falls 200 bps in yield, taking it to 1% and in tune with Raoul's target of a 50 bps yield on the 10Y... that 200 bps move is a 60% gain in price. I think the 30Y is an absolute screaming buy at these levels.

...Darrel said it best.

Great presentation and it is consistent with the recent interview with Lacy Hunt. What will be very interesting is whether the Fed in fact raises the funds rate 2 to 3 more times this year. If the economy starts to slow down they will probably hold off and that will really cause yields to keep declining. If they do raise, it may put some upward pressure on yields but that will just set the stage for a decline later on.

Thanks for a great presentation Raoul. DXY has hit a long term 61.8% Fibo of move down from June 2001 to the Feb2008 bottom. The Monthly RSI is showing a marked divergence with the recent price action. Fundamentally, I suspect that we are going back to the late 60’s and 70’s with a policy of “benign neglect” of the US$

Raul, thank you for RV. I wish I really had a better understanding and capabilities to express these investment views..

Jesus ... love the analysis.

As discussed in other RV videos, baby boomers are working longer and saving more for retirement. (This is about $16 trillion pretax.) It is possible that the $16 trillion may continue to rise even with mandatory withdrawals as more boomers, who are still working, are putting more and more money away. The portion of these savings put into long-term bonds will also help to keep the interest rates lower. DLS

So we are watching yields on the 10 yr break below 2.3 to action a buy?

o.k. just hedged my port with 30% with TLT. Think so too, to much deflation forces in the market... (cheap energy, IT, biotech etc.) Thank you for the heads up...

Wow....I dumped my TIPS earlier today. I agree with Raoul - we could see treasuries have one last run.

The main reason I subscribed to RVTV in the first place was this man! I would pay the subs for his insight alone. Excellent video like everything Raoul does. Never scared to put his money where his mouth is, right or wrong his advise and Knowledge are invaluable. TOP MAN!!!

very useful, thank you. note that "positioning" in UST is not really huge. basically a lot of these "shorts in UST" are against longs in others part of the FI world, also check out option pricing (favouring TYA calls over puts)...also real rates in the US are wrongly priced and eventually will re-set higher (especially with new incoming FED chair). The more important story for rates here is Europe. Get the French elections out of the way and chances are rates in Europe move a lot higher. this is where one can really outperform. if you really think deflation is about to hit the world then just sell equities rather than buy FI. just my 2 cents. thanks for taking the time to do the video.

Brilliant and ballsy as always. Raoul has a talent for spotting major inflection points. I really like how Raoul structures and locates trades for maximum reward potential and easily identifiable risk points. Genius.

Invaluable insights from Raoul on inflaltion or rather the likely lack of it, which concurs with Dr Lacy Hunt's views and why unprecedented American and global over indebtedness is likely to ensure deflation remains key for the foresseable futue, regardless of the actions of Trumponomics, and why the decades old bull market in longer dated US government debt is a long way from being over.

This was a terrific and timely presentation. 2% on the 10 year means ~0.4% decline in the nominal yield from here. If CPI declines by more than 0.4% over the same time frame, the real yield increases. That is a theoretically bullish environment for USD, no?

Roger H, you have a great argument against my weak dollar thesis. So dollar could go both ways. The strategically correct trades are long bond and long gold.!

Thank you, Raoul. Excellent macro mindset

Thank you, Raoul. Excellent macro mindset

His argument is valid with 'all things being equal'. However tax reform and infrastructure spending is still to come and is both stimulative and inflationary. That said, I believe the real narrative change is that fiscal policy has taken over from monetary policy. In the past few years, we've seen that the Fed would only raise when the S&P500 allowed it, now the promise of fiscal policy means the market will likely stay high regardless of what the fed does. I think this gives cover for the Fed to raise rates. I think politics is requiring the Fed to raise.

Actionable trades!!! At last love all RVTV productions but I can make money on this! We are trying to do that , right? Stay calm and carry on!!! Thanks

Awesome little gem there Raoul! I came to RVTV to get an education on finance (which you have been giving me in spades). To also get a little trading tidbit from one of the real professionals out there is just an outstanding bonus! It would be great to have a short little segment (10-15 minutes) every few months from one of the pro's detailing a likewise example of a trade they believe in (obviously that they have already shared with their paying clients well in advance of it coming on RVTV). Thanks again for bringing such an innovative product as RVTV to the masses.

You could get a weaker US economy and a stronger USD if China’s credit bonanza rolls over. Cyclical economies have benefited most and many currencies outperformed vs USD. Europe PMIs still look like they’re benefiting today. But once momentum turns, it works in reverse, putting a bigger drag on those cyclical economies. US growth will falter, but global growth will falter faster and USD will attract bids again. However, it’s hard to argue PMI’s have actually peaked yet.

There are only handful of great investors in the world. Raoul is one of them. He feels

capitalfows =higher USD

One of the best videos of the year. Demark stated that the dow would not blow past 20K. Instead it blew past 20K & 21K. How did his indicators miss that? The mkt right now seems Teflon- repeal of Obama care iffy; no mention of debt ceiling, volatility low for a long time. Trump comes out & says that the dollar is too strong & the dollar falls. Retailers going out of business in droves & insolvent banks still holding strong. The stock mkt just doesn't feel right- underneath the stock mkt, businesses, jobs are just cratering & volatility is low. Kolonovic (JPM) comes out & makes all these right calls & it does what he says. He knows what the mkt is going to do because he sees the trades. Just a very odd mkt, just feels rigged.

Economy is going down. Why should dollar go up? Brilliant presentation by Raul. Completely agree with long TLT but market action and fundamental call for weak dollar. We will see 😊

Completely agree with long bond thesis but if reflation trade will unwind, why should the dollar go up? Dollar follows the growth rate differential or interest rate differential model. Economy is go

Look at DXY weekly chart - daily chart is noise. 3 wks ago HIGH VOLUME came in and stopped DXY advance. Last 2 weeks DXY falling AND open interest falling dramatically. This is a weak dollar. Comp

Always interesting. More likely bond rally and DXY weakness. Lower inflation = less pressure to hike. Lower GDP growth = less reason to own USD Both bullish bonds, both bearish DXY. According to BAML Global FMS positioning is heavily long USD still and very short treasuries. Buy bonds, buy EM

Raoul - Thanks for the timely video and your update in the comment section. I was trying to say the same thing, but you said it better. DLS

Raoul, Raoul...Why don't we have this more often? I derive more pleasure and interest from this 13 minute video than some of the 1 hour videos usually posted. I urge you to contribute more to the plat

Great stuff. Nice and punchy. China credit (growth and impulse) are both rolling over despite January’s record injection. Last year’s Q1 record increase kick started the global rebound in commodities, data surprises and PMIs but that momentum’s now fading. Global PMIs should be peaking. The YoY decline in WTI already implies China PPI heads back to zero.

MT - Dollars and bonds can both go up as its not just about rates. Thee bond trade for me right now is the higher conviction trade, but over time I have strong conviction on both. As I mentioned in the video, it might take a few attempts to get the location right for both parts of the trade.

This video should be the format for all RV videos going forward. Raoul educated us and then gave us actionable trade ideas on how to play this. We need more videos like this!!!

Julian B has been spot on with this stuff for ages...

great update look forward to the piece on oil

Thanks Raoul, great stuff! Agree with it all except being long dollars. If the US economy is slowing, and yields are falling I'd rather be short the dollar. US Dollar was a large beneficiary of higher oil prices, rising yields and reflation trade in general. I disagree that the dollar isn't a crowded trade. According for speculative vs commercial positioning it is quite crowded. Survey data shows fund managers believe it to be the most crowded trade out there. I understand risk reward for your view here has limited downside, but given everything you've said it seems like the dollar will head lower not higher. Time will tell!

Fantastic, this type of presentation is what sets RV apart from all other financial publications.

Thank you RV. More ideas from other long term investors would be very helpful.

Like it. Gonna have a flutter on TLT and see how it goes. I'm already long USD & short Yuan. Been doing OK with that over the past year or so. Also long Gold & short Yen. Getting in with pre-Brexit GBP I'm obviously already up on that too even if the charts tell another story sometimes, but it's a long play. Do you see Gold actually rising with Bonds over the next couple of years or do you see it getting dragged down by falling oil & a rising USD?

Fantastic. Thank You! Videos like this are the reason to keep subscribing. Will increase your renewal rates which as you know from your long foray into marketing are the key business metric.

Thanks for the video Raoul, any thoughts on the currencies that might be the most negatively impacted by this reversal? (i'm thinking AUD/CAD/RUB given the commodity exposure)