Comments
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MWGreat interview of a brilliant man. I'd like to do a deeper dive into cycle analysis
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AMThis was so hard to watch but still interesting to see you can be off your rocker a bit and still make some money? Obviously age is a factor here. Wow
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CSI was disappointed there were not more details on the cycles. Is he referring to economic cycles or market cycles? What time frame is he looking at? Is he looking at multiple overlapping cycles or one major turning point? Is he taking a quantitative or qualitative approach? Guess I was expecting more technical insights. But at least it was entertaining.
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SNAmazing interview on cycles! Revalidates the fact that all the info is out there but nobody tells you where to look at. This Brilliant Piece does. Thanks @Dave and RV on bringing John as a guest. Hope he comes back with more learnings. However there was just one thing I couldn't fully grasp: The video didn't fully discuss about his USDJPY position and what he learnt from his re-analysis. I reckon the interview was edited at that part (~10:30 mins to finish)??
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CHThis discussion of cycles was much more accessible, entertaining, and informative than that featuring Howard Marks. John Taylor puts it all out there, not afraid to use the F bomb to make a point. Mr. Marks seemed in contrast reserved, and careful not to express any strong opinion. His measured, cautious demeanor did not make for a compelling RealVision video.
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AHThis was amazing! i'm afraid i disagree with anyone who found this boring - there aren't many people talking about cycles - he's one of the very few - guy ran a $14b fund - deserves to be taken seriously and heard! open ur mind people - great guest, Grant, Raoul & team .. brilliant interview dave
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MCThis was an awesome interview I had to watch it twice to pick up all the tidbits and even then I'm not sure I translated things properly. I don't understand why many of the comments below are getting worked up about the details with respect to gold. John Taylor hints a number of times during the interview that he is an empiricist. This means he doesn't give a crap about all the details. So if he got some of the details wrong, it doesn't really matter. I liken this to how someone like Nasim Taleb would see things. Interesting that Mr. Taylor's academic credentials came after his real life experience in currency markets. Some important takeaways. He has studied cycles and has positioned himself very successfully in the past. With about 25 minutes left, he says his knitting is "finding the turns". With 20 minutes left, Dave asks what's on the radar? He says sell France and buy Germany (10 year notes). Shorting euro is not as clean. Dave suggests gold has rallied a bit but is a range bound mess. Dave looks at price. Mr. Taylor appears to be more bullish than Dave when it comes to gold. Why? Because gold leads the bottom of the stock market all the time. Cycles are real fucking things says Mr. Taylor. We had a cycle bottom in February 2016 and the next cycle bottom is between July to September 2020. About 18 months from now give or take. Gold leads the bottom of the stock market all the time. By how long? Look at the past for a guide. That's what an empiricist would do.
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JPDave’s face expression about 4mins before the end says it all. Like some really bad trade, with this guest you have hit not only StopLoss but some serious slippage on top of that too. No worries Dave, this must have been the worst guest you could get, so it should be much easier and interesting next time. Looking forward to it.
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NRThis is a very convoluted BS conversation in my view.
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RDDidn’t learn anything from this interview
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JHThis was interesting and laugh-out-loud funny in equal measure.
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DRA fvckin great diversion for a loser fvck like me who was watching this shit instead of out for fvckin valentines.
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RAAll kidding aside, this was a great interview and I thought Dave did a great job, love John Taylor!
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NR"...and god dammit if China isn't doing the same thing..." John dropped nuggets of gold through the whole interview. Good job guys, keep 'em coming.
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RAOk....USA has gold and Russia has gold and Canada has no gold, but Mines (except GG is gone and Newmont is in US and not Canada—sorry I digressed), but where I’m stuck is why no mention of CHINA having Gold (a little Birdie told me they been buying regularly for some time now)? So using some ******* John Taylor logic; Did John not mention it because a) China doesn’t have much, b) John doesn’t know China has Gold (now THAT I have to assign a low probability to) or c) John doesn’t want us to know that he knows China has Gold (now that’s pretty conspiratorial) or d) John just wants to see if we are paying attention? Did he fool Dave? Was Dave just being nice (he IS one of the nicest RV guests for sure and a guy I’d love to have a beer or Mountain bike ride with) by not interjecting something like “Gee John, I think China has a pretty good size Gold holding”) or.....does Dave not think China has Gold...or does Dave not know whether China has Gold (doesn’t sound like something Dave wouldn’t know about). Is this triple entendre? Is John having a bit of fun with us? Somebody please help me out here.
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GGNothing to learn from this
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DCWhat a gift of an interview revealing a fantastic character - great interview by Dave - covering two topics of major interest to me, cycles and gold. I would have dearly liked to hear further details of the cycles in Gold that John has analysed, and those which he sees as being dominant at the moment - perhaps Dave could follow this up with John in a future talk? FWIW this is my gold cycle model - the 84 week cycle is still showing major strength in my analysis. https://twitter.com/Ukdavec01/status/1054541812117856256
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RVAbout the gold remark. Around 5'50'' before the end. Can't get my mind around the fact that Taylor doesn't know that EU central banks have a lot of gold. And a lot more than the US. But the gesture. Making a zero with his fingers. I hope he does not have a suspicion - let alone more than a suspicion - that in 2008 EU central banks had to pledge their gold as a quid pro quo for re the more than 1 T in US dollars EU financial institutions got to straighten out their currency mismatches. Can't possibly keep that a secret for so long.
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ICWith due respect to Taylor's extensive experience and knowledge mentioned in this interview, I have not seen anything related to the cycles of success in terms of tangible tools which we could make use of. At one part of the interview, Dave mentioned about the tools what Taylor has been utilizing like oscillators, Elliott Wave etc. (all commonly known and applied), but what makes him so distinguished, I could not decipher from this. If the point is made that he could easily read out the motions and actions of our key political & economic actors, and turn them into fantastic trades (like he commented on Trump-Xi dinner in Argentina), then this will remain as his exquisite and not to be used by normal traders like us!
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KAI love John Taylor... and as always Dave is great.
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ARThe EU has the 2nd highest gold reserves in the world after USA. So what is he talking about?
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HJI hold physical gold. Where the hell is it going and when???
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PCMaybe you need to know him to appreciate this? To me I totally don't understand why this is worth 40 minutes. The only thing I got out of this is, even professionals don't know what to do here.
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SHGeorge Herrdum & GFTA that John mentioned, were probably one of the biggest and earliest FX trend followers around in their day. Caught a lot of the big FX trends in the 70's and 80's.
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PUnot very useful . . . a bit scattered in his thoughts
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LCI love this man! I would just let him talk as there’s so much to get from the way he views and analyzes the world! More, more, more!!
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MAWhat cycles did he refer to at the end? Kitchener? Never heard of that. Anyone have any idea on this?
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PPYou would not want to watch this half drunk... it would put you on the lifetime wagon... for sure. His claim to fame are cycles. So forty six minutes of video and the only cycle he mentions the Kitchin Cycle.... with about 2 minutes left.
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dwWelp, anyone who drops an F-bomb within 20 seconds of opening his mouth, is all right with me ha. A colorful character indeed. I'm glad RV introduced me to him. I found it entertaining and informative.
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CWThis interview is fucking legendary
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RPDave needs to do more interviews. He is a natural. A gem of an interview...
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SMI like that when he said China will fall apart and bankrupt like USSR style. It really does seem that way.
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CBThis was pure madness. I’m still analyzing what I’ve heard. However, I enjoyed it and I’m grateful for the experience
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DGAwesome stuff, Mr. Taylor is brash, has an opinion and a wealth of experience. I’d love to see Keith McCullough (hedgeye) and John nerd out on sine curves, compare and contrast their methodologies, cycle work, etc. One observation I have is the first 15 minutes I can’t figure out which he dislikes more the uncontrollable DJT or the 100% in control central banks. You would think he would appreciate the dislocations and alpha opportunity of DJTs “stupidity” over the central banks putting a band aid on every paper cut, destroying price discovery as you explained David. But he seems to dislike both, with a passion....Overall a fantastic listen, great job RV!
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TEReally like John and his outspoken style. Would love to learn more about his cycles work. Dave great job keeping the conversation on the rails.
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TJI was most impressed by John Taylor's insights and extraordinary experience and knowledge until his final comments concerning gold. Unless he knows something I don't, his suggestion that Europe has no gold is nonsense! If anybody has no gold, it is probably the US, who have steadfastly refused to ever have the Fort Knox holding properly audited. Meanwhile anybody following gold developments of the past decade or so, also knows China is lying about its total gold and almost certainly has in excess of 10,000 tons and not the 1.700 odd it officially claims. Some commentators such as Alasdair Macleod suggest China's total is in excess of 20,000 tons. Otherwise, and excellent discussion, and Dave did a great job in getting some real gems of knowledge from John, especially concerning cycles.
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JRGreat interview Dave, you are becoming a natural. I really appreciate getting John's macro perspective approach to currencies and how the Trump factor has created a new dynamic in the inputs into the macro process. My thoughts is that as long the the S&P remains above 2700s range, Trump becomes more belligerent in policy and rhetoric whether its China trade or the Wall. The only fly in the ointment is the collaborative effort of the BOJ, ECB, and Fed to try and offset his chaos. In my from point of view, the Fed will continue to raise rates and tighten balance sheet as long the S&P continues to rise because what they are concerned is more about the asset bubble rather than the oft manipulated "inflation" numbers. They need more quivers in their arsenal when the next downturn shows up. All this equates to a flight to safety in the US$ and likewise in the equities; hence, was the pause in interest rates and tapering of the balance sheet simply a means to weak it to prevent excessive inflow? I would love to hear some counterpoints.
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RVWhat is this guy saying. About 4'18'' before the end ? ' I know because I was on the FED board...' And Dave Floyd looks at him like 'ahum'. Probably part of his special humor. And yes, Abishek is right. The EU or the major EU countries have more gold than the US. Even Trump himself said 'I love gold, but the other ones have all the stuff'
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LSI remember john in the 70;s at citi when I was trading with citi, a legend, as he said most traders did not have a university education and in those days there were no computers, lots of regulations between countries so lots of simple arb. He was a master at putting structure to a market approach, still is, great discussion.