Using Silver to Play the Dollar

Published on
May 2nd, 2019
6 minutes

Using Silver to Play the Dollar

Technical Trader ·
Featuring JC Parets

Published on: May 2nd, 2019 • Duration: 6 minutes

J.C. Parets, CMT, of All Star Charts, believes the U.S. dollar's recent move higher is reminiscent of the many false breakouts he has seen in his career. He analyzes the recent price action and the technical setup for the U.S. Dollar Index, breaks down its components, and explains how he would use precious metals to profit from a weakening dollar. Filmed on April 30, 2019 in Sonoma, California.



  • RW
    Ryan W.
    16 October 2019 @ 08:50
    Would like to a see an update here, with the dollar continuing to climb higher despite moves all over the place with silver. 17-17.5 was a great call, but seems unrelated to the dollar (e.g. UUP). With the current pullback in SLV, a new entry point would be nice though looking to me more like 15 right now rather than 14 based on the moving average.
  • HK
    Himanshu K.
    20 July 2019 @ 08:02
    Good Stuff
  • DK
    Daniel K.
    5 May 2019 @ 22:20
    Don’t forget Silver is an industrial metal more than monetary one and it may get clobbered in overdue recession. I may look at SLV if fails to break support at 13.15.
  • DR
    David R.
    3 May 2019 @ 15:49
    Just like the charts foretold, USD is harshly rejected on a retest of its weekly high and then collapses. Those who were crammed into the very overcrowded long dollar trade are feeling pain with more to come. A double top just above DXY 98 and rejection at the 618 fib, after a choppy partial recovery against its previous impulsive collapse, is a textbook bear market recovery & reversal by USD. Looks very bad on USD. The bottom could eaisly fall out of the dollar later as the massively crowded longs start to sell . Most likely, DXY is headed toward 80, not back to recapturing 104. Only a convincing close at 101+ and preferably above 104+ invalidates the overall bearish dollar trend.
    • CL
      Chris L.
      5 May 2019 @ 08:56
      There is no overcrowding in the dollar. You have to look beyond net-positioning when everyone is short glowing regional FX. 5-year percentile has been declining since November which gives context to positioning which is 56 v 100 in Jan 17. Even if we go back to Dec when Powell flipped the 5-year percentile was 90 - still less than the 2017 high. Charts don't foretell, data does. And unless the Fed begin adding liquidity to the system, the dollar pull backs will be meek in the grander scheme of things. A lagging technical indicator doesn't stop dollar illiquidity which is why the last time JC was on he forecasted a lower dollar and since hit a 2 year high.
  • VJ
    Victor J.
    5 May 2019 @ 00:56
    According to the clocks on your wall, Mumbai is stuck in a time freeze.
  • DR
    David R.
    2 May 2019 @ 19:35
    Great analysis. USD will go down bigly. Maybe one more chance to sell before it dumps.
    • DR
      David R.
      3 May 2019 @ 15:51
      That chance to sell passed and as expected the dollar is puking. Very crowded long trade. Should be fun when longs try to exit to minimize their losses... BOOM!
  • RM
    RJ M.
    3 May 2019 @ 15:11
  • DC
    Darren C.
    2 May 2019 @ 21:52
    I can see what J.C. is talking about but PM seasonality is against him right now. I'm going to look at SLV in 8 weeks.
  • DW
    Daniel W.
    2 May 2019 @ 20:40
    have you seen the the $dxy chart? where do you see any negative divergences, or LH and LL on D or W charts? Looks to me the USD is going higher and possibly a lot higher. at some pt /SI will be a buy but not yet and possibly not for a long time. It seems to me /SI wants to at least retest 14 and if it breaks it, look out below, way below. You my friend, are either a day-trader or have no idea what you preach.
  • CB
    C B.
    2 May 2019 @ 18:11
    Silver broke sharply lower yesterday, and hit a new 8 month low on the RSI. I wouldn't touch it here.
  • WB
    Wes B.
    2 May 2019 @ 17:27
    Mr Mkt is smoking the whole metals space currently
    • DP
      David P.
      2 May 2019 @ 17:40
      Very true. Relative to S&P, AG only been cheaper about 5% of the time over the last 50 years...About 10% above 10 year low...