Comments
Transcript
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TMGrant could not with all his industry contacts, 30 years experience etc. could not put together reputable money managers who can make a bearish case. At least he found Catherine Wood of Ark investments to make some points. This is one of the worst production in terms of the shallow content put out by Real Vision.
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TMGrant could not with all his industry contacts, 30 years experience etc. could not put together reputable money managers who can make a bearish case. At least he found Catherine Wood of Ark investments to make some points. This is one of the worst production in terms of the shallow content put out by Real Vision.
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TZIt's funny to see this video on 2020 February 27.
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JPMARK SPIEGEL just covered his short LOL. The short Tesla theme is an absolute bust.
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MRIn the future; we will see companies like Tesla, WeWork, Softbank as bubbles representing irrational exuberance... Like the past 10 years; Tesla is an example of WASTED opportunity to benefit the world... Greed and "short sightedness" was the underlying problem... This is one of many videos demonstrating the poor quality and lack of car in assembly... https://youtu.be/5_kAz2v7scQ
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WBGreat video, but was a little surprised to hear no speculation about whether government subsidies were dependent on data sharing.
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SHThanks Grant, this must have been a challenge finding a bull protagonist who did not use the phrase “because it is”, so well done you! Great perspective on a such an opinion galvanising company. I guess, finances aside because everyone seems to have forgotten gravity, the question is to be long when there is real innovation and little competition (2012-2016) and consider this on a comparable basis when there is world class competition (2019 onwards) and adjust for the marketing savvy of a CEO who really knows how to sell. Time will tell, great interview, great story, going to be interesting.
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ASIf you really want to understand Tesla vs. the competition, watch this. Sandy Munro tells all: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2DucRxWz_58 An hour and a half of someone who really, really understands cars and how Tesla is killing it.
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CCmore noise and soundbites than solid information, though I agree with the premise. it would have been interesting to hear someone with an understandable rationale for the bull case. maybe that doesn't exist 🤔
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BSI find the content too bearishly biased. Would have loved to see a better balance between bulls and bears. And what I'm also missing is the acknowledgement of Tesla's achievements to date. Yes, certainly the cheap money has helped them, but building a company that produces cars from scratch in the 21st century against all that competition (I disagree that only electric vehicles should be seen as competition), I think everybody would have agreed 15 years ago that this is highly improbable and the bunch of guys trying that are nuts. Also, some of the short seller's claims I believe aren't founded by reality, e.g. that Tesla wouldn't have a technological edge, or that Elon is all about his ego. But if you read Ashley Vance's biography of Musk you must admit that he at least used to be driven by his vision and didn't care about his ego at least until recently. I have to admit though that I also have the feeling this could have changed recently, maybe by all the attacks against his personality, so that now he really wants to prove himself. Not sure about the fraud claims, but some of the short seller's claims are convincing. Curious where this whole thing ends up. Full Disclosure: I'm a Tesla fan, used to own the stock as a big part of my portfolio, now only own 1 share.
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MSi am cleary missing facts here on Teslas todays and future performance. where are the fundamentals in this report?- - why ist Tesla loss making - will they be able to cover their production and material costs by the announced prices? - How does the product life cycle look like from a consumer perspective? - Is there money in the aftermarket? This report just adds to the noise and lacks a lot of analytical efforts.
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ASI own Tesla stock and a Model S and a Model 3. Best cars I’ve ever owned. Close competition from a 99 BMW 5 series, but that’s like saying the Motorola Razr was the 3rd best phone I’ve ever owned. When I got the original iPhone it was like... ok. Game over. I love Grant. I own gold and am long long UST. And this is the only non-ETF I own because Tesla is like Apple when EVERYONE thought it was over. Here: historical context: Colligan: “PC guys are not going to just figure this out. They're not going to just walk in.” Ballmer: “There’s no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance. It’s a $500 subsidized item.” Waaaay back. Dell: “shut (Apple) down and give the money back to the shareholders.” LOL.
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cpNothing new in this video. Tesla is a clear short and survives thanks to a religious crowd that reminds me the 2017 and the alt-coins (remember those “assets”). Anyway, I will be happy when this stock gets to zero just to see the tongue of mr Gerber cleaning the floor trying to explain to his blind investors how wrong he was! And that merger with Solar City, what a joke!
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NII wish Grant would have tracked down a credible scientist or two to opine on the idea that EVs are better for the environment. That seems to be the mantra used to justify the taxpayer handouts and Elon worship, but I don't buy it. The last thing I want to see is such heavy electric grid demand that countries build more and more nuclear plants to keep up and then we have more Fukushima/Chernobyl events. Nuclear plants can be safe, but not at the price anyone is willing to pay to build one. My mind could be changed if someone credible had been interviewed to discuss the risks with ICE and EV.
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ALCan't disagree with much of what the short sellers say with respect to EM over promise delivery dates, weird statements, financial condition of the company, very disappointing ... but I own a Tesla 3 ... and its totally awesome. Live in Toronto and it performed as expected this winter with respect to battery life. No problems in snow different from any other car. Now that its just a bit warmer the car is over performing with respect to range, and the snow tires are still on. Very fun to drive. Network of charging stations throughout North America gives me the freedom to drive anywhere. My brother has had a Model S for 4 years, loves it. Every time SpaceX launches for some unexplained reason I feel good about our future. When the boosters land you realize how big a change EM has made to space launches. I agree ... EM has gone way outside normal in many ways ... but the products are really great. We are better for them. Watch what you wish for.
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GOIt's good to see both sides of a story unlike MSM fake news networks. Thank you Grant and the Real Vision Crew!!
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SAI don't agree with Grant on Tesla. Tesla is a great company that has created a significant technological lead over other automotive companies -- in lithium ion cells/packs, vehicle assembly, to driver experience and autonomous driving. Musk has literally forced the US, European, and Japanese automotive manufacturers to accelerate plans to go electric. Tesla has also created a great consumer brand in both EVs and energy storage. Musk perhaps made a mistake by taking the company public prematurely. This has led to much investor skepticism about valuation since Tesla is not profitable, and unlikely to be so in the near future. Tesla's stock price may fluctuate a lot, but it is unlikely to go bankrupt. Either Apple or Google will likely buy Tesla much before that happens.
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dmGreat production and interviews! Thank you Grant and your team. You must have spent a considerable amount of time researching and editing for this production! As always, RealVision raises the standards bar. I give this production a thumbs up...(although not sure why the thumbs up/down meter isn't working nor can I vote for this video.) Please keep up the amazing quality that we've come to appreciate from RealVision.
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CTMusk targeting Montana skeptic reminded me of Parker Petite/Mimedx going after Sir Cohodes. Huge red flag?
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HATesla is creating the future.... It will take time for people to accept the disruption happening in transportation sector...
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RJMr Gerble just because you have $840 mil in assets under management in a bloated Fed economy and the short seller you despise has "only $2 mil of grandmas money" does not make you right, smarter, or more successful. just because you like a product doesnt make that products company a good company. mr gerble will one day be reminded of the ancient and wise saying "those who humble themselves will be exalted and those who exalt themselves will be humbled." what a pompous narcissist. just my opinion.
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ELEither way, this story will be a great book in five years
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CHMassive misallocation of capital x wafer thin margins = first victim of next credit crisis
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JPEchoing other comments here, I enjoyed this video but found it to be too little surface level. If it was the intro to a 3-5 part series, awesome, but as a stand alone it was underwhelming. I already know tesla is controversial and the common news stories etc. But flying planes over the factories? Tracking Musk's jet? Model 3s in parking lots? There are so many potential deep dives mentioned here that left me wanting more.
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MLI find this disappointing and a departure from the quality I have come to expect from RV. Grant starts out calling Tesla "a fraud". He offers no evidence or facts to support this claim other than a group of random (anonymous hooded guy, seriously?) twitter personalities making further claims with no evidence offered. This is gossip not serious, fact based research. It is filled with feelings and rumors from either side, no real evidence or even the semblance of a coherent argument other than it's a poorly run company. I was very interested in this piece as I thought that Grant or his guest(s) would lay out a real case against the company. This was a disappointment.
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JDGrant looks absolutely terrified during the Tesla auto-pilot shot.
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OO"I call us genX leaders"... he can relate. Yeah, Gerber, it is you and Musk, in the same league ... regardless of where one stands on Tesla thesis...Grant, pleeease, pick better people to interview. The man is a pompous narcissist. It cheapens the show unless it is your plan to tilt so heavily to the bears, at any cost. And btw, I am a huge fan of your other interviews, the one on Gold (wolf ) being a top pick.
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NRThumbs down to the Gerber feller.
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JBRoss Gerber reminds me of the portfolio managers who were long MBS, CDOs, CMOs in 2006-2007 and bragging about how smart and how rich they are
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MWRoss Gerber manages $850 Million between 5,000 people. Thats an average account size of $170,000. If that isn't the definition of dumb LA retail money I don't know what is.
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RETesla became a fraud when they announced the cheap M3 version and were forced to meet ridiculous milestones set by Dear Leader himself. Look what is going on right now: Tesla promised the delivery of the $35,000 car, but now buyers receive text messages telling them the cheaper version will only be available in June (or maybe never), but the more expensive SR+ is available right now. Bait and switch at its finest. Tesla sold its cars to their fan base so far, but I very much doubt that Jane Doe or Joe Sixpack are going to accept the many quality issues that come with it. For most people, a car is a car and not a gadget. Without QE, companies like Tesla would not exist. Every Tesla bull should read "Bad Blood" - thank me later.
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OCI am a fun of Tesla's cars but not of the stock at this valuation. This type of cult hype is what creates bubbles and it can inflate a stock much more than fundamentals. There is no question that electric cars are the future and thanks to Tesla for that. However, the competition is fierce and those new European models are much better than Tesla. I am hoping for one more explosive TSLA rally so I can short the shit out of it.
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DMIs there anyone more boring than Lawrence Fossi aka Montana Skeptic? So boring my goodness no wonder the poor guy doesn't get it.
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ggWho cares about tsla... old and tired subject. Grants talents are better spent on “the road”. Some subjects: when Japan CB balance sheet = gdp why could not FED balance sheet get there? Review the state of European banks? Etc... Tesla wtf cares
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ZHGrant - awesome piece. Your content never fails to inform AND entertain. I think what bears fail to see is that humanity is cheering for musk. How do you value that?
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KKI don’t have a pony in this race so not articulating a bull or bear case here. Looking at the situation I list three arguments for each side: Bull: -Tesla has an amazing product and way ahead of competition in EV innovation -Elon Musk is the second coming of Thomas Edison -The future EV market is going to grow exorbitantly and Tesla remains the market leader Bear: -The company’s fundamentals are out of whack, way overpriced -Elon Musk is a conman manipulating investors and accounts -The EV competition (coming) is so great Tesla is done for IMO, It’s not a 0 but def not worth its current market cap either.
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JNI’m backing Cathie !! 👌come on to the other side Grant !! 😂🤣
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SMModel S was great car had an appealing look with its very wide body shape. To me it would look very solid luxury car just as any other luxury brands. But ever since Testla went for mass production, cars quality drop significantly and muscular appealing design is disappeared. Tesla can't survive long with below $250 stock price if it ever breaks current support level of $255-265 given its tremendous debt.
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SUGood video, but would have been better if they went through and discussed the financial statements.
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DMGreat job Real Vision! I appreciate Grant Williams letting us know he is biased but still being open to the other side! That's what great journalists do!
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TWAs Sprung folks like to say - “It’s not a tent its a structure” I have been getting a laugh out of all the “tent” comments re: Tesla. I am probably the only viewer who has built, maintained and dismantled several of these structures in recent years. I don’t know about the Tesla build quality but the thing you refer to as a tent is a very interesting and innovative way to build. (Not that anyone cares about that). Lol. Good video Grant.
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KCi have never looked at a Tesla and thought it was a good looking car. Reminds me of when Saturns came out, a lot of hype but I fail to see any exclusivity to market that it will have in 5 years. I'm more interested in the shift of carbon footprint involved with shifting to electric cars, the supply issues rhat may be involved with moving to electricity and if there will be any true savings at all.
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CAI have never seen so many comments on a Real Vision, so added one more.
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JOIs there a way to short Ross Gerber too?
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AJI generally like Grant William's pieces but I found this report to be a missed opportunity. Tesla is a technology company that analysts mistake for a Auto company. Tesla is leading the competition in 3 key areas: Battery Technology, Self Driving AI and Dark Manufacturing. In the first 2 they are years ahead of the competition. There is a material risk that they fail at any one of these areas or run out of cash due to the R&D burn but that is the real story. As a trader the short trade doesn't make any sense to me. If they can pull it off TSLA should be 5-10X of the current price. If the shorts are right they make 1X if they are wrong they lose 5X. RV should do a piece on why Wall Street systematically fails to appreciate the business models of disruptive technology. AMZN was a seen as a online bookstore, GOOG was a phone book and FB was just another social media site.
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GRThe banks had capital injections in the crisis. It can be argued this company is so systemically important to Mother Earth that AOC and co. could lobby for a green bailout/capital injection. The story is so crazy thus far, I don't see why it can't get crazier. It's either that or Tesla becomes in a state owned enterprise in China and they acquire all the IP!
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BGThe most important part of the presentation to me was the last 30 seconds when it stated that Elon and Tesla declined an offer to discuss their views.
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EIAll I learned was that the audience is polarized. I had hoped to hear the bull case and the bear case but this was just a collection of rants by people that didn't inspire confidence. If polarization was, in fact, the goal, then my bad - you hit your target.
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NAThanks for this, highly entertaining. My own Tesla views: 1) shorting is way too much effort for a max potential gain of 99% 2) long is too much of a headache 3) ergo whenever an investor tells me he has a position I run, seek your alpha elsewhere
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DSCapitalism that we know is a business profit-based system. Part of the business economy now - Amazon, Tesla, etc. - is based on being the first mover and out running the competition without a profit motive, but cash flow positive. Money is made in the increases in the stock price. We will see how this works with Tesla, as the competition is ramping up. The net results of many of these competitions are lower margins and lower dividends for the older companies. Time will tell. DLS
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PoInteresting piece! If you think something is significantly mis-priced, you are *probably* missing key information. The market is probably not completely irrational. Tesla’s accounting is weak and aggressive, but it makes no sense to compare it 1:1 to other auto-manufacturers due to: - Tesla Energy could become bigger than Tesla Auto. Solar boom is coming with numerous new applications and the potential to transform industries - Potential to commercialize software services (navigation, auto-pilot, charge/switch optimization) - New transportation models (auto-pilot taxis, air travel, efficient cargo) - Potential to become a significant auto and energy technology supplier (royalties / sales) None of the above is a reality, but Tesla is looking at all of them. The main bear factor wasn’t mentioned: Inability to retain engineering talent I have no dog in this game since I think TSLA is probably fairly priced in relation to the rest of the market.
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JRTesla gives me the same gut feeling Mattress Firm did. 👎🏻
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JRGreat documentary! I hope the next one focuses more on potential accounting discrepancies, competitive advantages it may or may not have with building in China, and the executive exodus they have been experiencing.
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GGBut loved the presentation.
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ILSo Cathie Wood apparently thinks Tesla is worth $4000 per share. Good luck to anyone who has their money with Ark Invest.
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GG250 is simply the level. Need monthly close below for bear case. But there is a massive fight at this level. I think it's consolidating before massive rip higher. Seen this too many times in too many stocks. Sideways compression before the rip. However, I am just a speculator on some mere lines on the chart. Can care less about the bull or bear side but the right side.
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DMObjectively you could say that Elon does not always deliver but to say that he is a fraud or a "fake engineer" or "fake scientist" when he has beaten Boeing and Lockheed Martin in Commercial Space Launches and has some of the best selling cars and by far, best selling electric cars in the market takes a complete loss of objectivity. TSLAQ has gone insane: Flying sorties, tracking Elon's plane, etc.
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PDSomeone should tell Grant not to worry so much ... Elon will take care of it....
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LBhttps://twitter.com/markbspiegel/status/572496524640452608 The guy shorted amazon back in 2015.
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CMAnytime Grant has a new video on RV, I immediately watch... This one may be one of the best (at least tied with the Marc Cohodes interviews). Amazing job! Can't wait for more... [Is it just me or does Charley Grant look like he could be Grant Williams' son?] Also, Ross Gerber is a goober.
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TBOne thing is certain. This will be the most commented and voted on video in Real Vision.
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NGWhat a total bunch of losers. Both sides. Get a life. How can you talk so much rubbish about a stock that has traded $250 to $380 for 2 years? Sell vol and come back when it breaks the range. All there is to be said about it.
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cbSurprisingly underwhelmed ... you got all the right people on tv but where were the hard hitting questions? Could have made this twice as long and won some awards. Ross and Cathy are idiots, should have exposed them for what they are.
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LJI thought this would be super biased to the short side because of grants view on tesla. Pleasantly suprised to see that it's not. Although I still think this is a pretty superficial view of what is going on. There are a lot of things that need to be factored in when it's comes to tesla. Politics play a big role with companies like this. And the pressure from environmentalist on governments worldwide is increasing everyday. So I think goverments will only support companies like tesla more and more even if the company is a complete financial mess. Elon is good at playing with politicians. I'm bearish on Tesla simply because i'm bearish on the nasdaq in general atm. Most companies in that index are overpriced
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APWould love to hear from anything BULLISH Grant has in mind, in general. Or maybe it is just the way RV tasks are split: Justine will take the exciting rare earths (or give it an exciting twist) while Grant will go to get worried about Italy, Tesla, ETFs, bitcoin...I get that some things are worrisome, but only focusing on that all the time is a bit exaggerated.
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JOAnd just today in the news: Musk is a protected species, protected against free speech and facts: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-03-27/twitter-suspends-tesla-critics-account-after-user-posts-spreadsheet-tesla-related-0
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MN(20:45) Ross Gerber : "He's a wild and crazy guy. I get that ...... I am too!. I call us the Gen X leaders, where things like social media ...........yada yada yada........" Me : "Ross, you are an idiot! But this is the way world has come to. The real eclectic Hugh Hendry is sitting at home after (rightfully) shutting down his hedge fund while the fake one Ross has over 800 MM$ in AUM." Giving him a voice on a honest platform like RV is a really bad idea. Next time I see Ross on - I will close my account here.
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mpZero new or informative information. Really disappointing. I expected more than a 60 minutes piece
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gbI enjoyed this piece and I’m glad you did it. However I’m a little disappointed that you didn’t dive more into the accusations of tesla charts, Montana skeptic, and other Twitter account you reference who basically a ledge out right fraud in numerous instances by Elon musk. It would be interesting to have credible guests discuss the delivery gap, whether or not model y is even viable remotely at this point, or many of the numerous other things that are spoiled by Tesla charts and others online.
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DSlong puts for some nice risk reward!!!!
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HHOh my fuck Ross gerber, wow. I don’t see enough of him on CNBC
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APGuessing "Tesla Charts" = Scott Galloway
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TAI am in awe. A perfect synopsis of the TeslaQ saga. Thank you RV
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THI drive by the Tesla store in Austin, Texas, all the time. It has multiple model 3's sitting out in front.
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TRPut me in the bull camp. Short term anything can happen but TSLA longer term is far ahead of the pack. TSLA is killing ICE vehicles, killing the dealer network, killing unions, killing oil demand, etc. Think about the long term shift that is being forced on the major auto makers. Also the "cult" of TSLA is real. I remember reading an article about a man investing his entire net worth in TSLA and writing Elon a letter telling him that win or lose he is backing him to the end. You cant short against that! TSLA can always sell more equity to the cult; hard for a company like that to go bankrupt.
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JKThis stock is the most entertaining thing in the market. Grant noted that the china factory is just a field, but there are plenty of videos showing them laying foundation and building materials. Perhaps recorded a couple months back? ex. https://insideevs.com/work-full-steam-tesla-gigafactory-china-video/
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JCThis was great work. Honestly I give Gerber a lot of credit for engaging with Real Vision and making his case. This thing probably could've been an hour if the cowards at Tesla had done the same. I'm even more confident in my short but it's always great to go behind enemy lines, see who's taking the other side of your trade, and determine if your thesis needs updating. (Ron Howard narrating: It didn't).
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PGI don't have a horse in this race, but my compliments to "Montana Skeptic" for standing up for himself and not hiding. Great piece by RV.
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DSThanks. Grant’s summation: “If Tesla does come crashing to earth, as I firmly believe it will, its demise will ripple through every asset market on earth. If I'm wrong, it may signal that much of what we thought we knew about business is now obsolete.” If Tesla invents and patents a very efficient battery system for commercial and residential applications, the stock is underpriced. If foreign electric cars are blocked by trade tariffs, then Tesla may have time to improve production and cash flow. One way of doing business has changed – Amazon, Tesla etc., but it is just a new addition to all kinds of business models. It does make it more difficult to determine the value of a company. Too rich for me, but many people are buying and shorting. Time will tell. DLS
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DDSorry youngins Tesla is toast! Ya'all are drinking the Kool Aide too much. The car, it's manufacturing infrastructure, costs, quality, etc. are subject to market forces and there are behemoths that will be squashing this little bug. You can call it a technology company or any other label you wish, it just won't stand up to the competition near term. The disciples of Elon that think he's "cool" that the company is "cool" that the car is "cool" haven't been around long enough to have seen this story play out countless times. I have no ax to grind with Musk, but I know this industry and what he's facing once the hood is opened is extinction. Tesla is a fly on the ass of an elephant and is going to get swatted. Specifically, Tesla will lose on costs, market share, manufacturing, quality, distribution among a host of other competitive disadvantages. Mr. Tucker, Mr. DeLorean please meet Mr. Musk-your 15 minutes of fame are OVER!
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RSWhatever you may think about E. Musk. I think he surely has changed the whole automotive industry. Let us at least give him credit for that ;-)
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ETSEC needs to ban Elon M. from running any public company and put him in his place.
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ABSeems RV is missing some key points. Tesla isn't a car company but a True tech company. ICE manufacturers don't come close to achieve what Tesla has made so far. Every quarters, years that passes Tesla shorts comes up with new short theories... what is clear, ICE manufacturers have recon that EV is the future and they are playing catch up... however this is a sprint and a marathon at the same time. Tesla is now delivering hundreds thousands of cars every year while investing heavily in increasing production and lowering costs. Like it or not but the auto industry is going to shift to EV, Tesla has started this and China market will force ICE manufacturers to manufacture EV, if not they will see a gradual decrease on their ICE vehicle exports. Looking forward to read/see the next short catalysts.
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EOSo much bias in the comments. And the video didn't include flamethrowers or cars flying to space.
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dwFor me its simple, give me 3 consecutive profitable quarters and I'll change my tune from bear to bull.
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JHGreat piece. Thx RV
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BDThis piece is noise. No depth. Feeling disappointed, because I was really looking forward to watching this.
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MHI'm nominating this for the RV oscars...
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RTThats exactly why we created Real Vision, unbiased reporting. Outstanding piece!
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MSHey Grant you looked very uncomfortable, when Gerber started the autopilot :-D
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MTWatching this video just tells me we are well over due for a wipe out of unprofessional money managers who doesn't value other peoples' money. Also some good confirmation on my already too large short.
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KRIf Jussie Smollett can get off anything can happen. It's a fantasy environment in this case the lack of any Investment hurdle rates and the Deemed "good" subsidies being directed to "Save the planet" has made this company and Elon a God like entity. Cathie Wood may be right if the results are as Grant says at the end that everything we knew in pre 08-09 finance is turned on its head. In that case it will be every man and woman for themselves in trying to discern what is real and what is smoke and mirrors. Essentially, chaotic crowds deeming "socially" who and where the $$ should go. If that's the case all my 33 years investing will be worthless. Maybe that what Blackrock and the robos want?
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YUMore stories like this. That was great.
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BLGood story telling and video editing!
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NOI'm a nervous bear and want to thank you for this film. Great story-telling and usual top notch production quality, by the way. The thing that has me nervous is whether Tesla is being protected by the US government. This is the only US carmaker that realistically could have a leading position in electric cars, and is the US willing to see European and Asian competitors become the dominant players globally? If not, are they protecting Tesla to allow it to become a national champion? If so, can Elon Musk get away with anything to make that happen? If capitalism as we have known it persists, this company will go bust, but if a form of managed capitalism is the new normal, then my shorts are going to hurt.
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TMIs it just me, or was that a look of vague discomfort on Grant's face when "The Gerbs" engaged Autopilot?
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YLWhile entertaining, I wish, and perhaps this is not the right format, the video explained why Tesla is a company headed for bankruptcy. Seem the video focused on people emotion more than hard facts and data to explain the imminent bankruptcy thesis. Whether Tesla goes bankrupt or not, you have to give Elon this. The "success" of Tesla pushed other auto manufacturer to move to electrification of future models, which Elon has said was his goal of Tesla.
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KSThis is useful only if you've never heard of Tesla. Otherwise, you could get all of the relevant info in this video from spending 10 min on Twitter.
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NCpretty boring
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CCLove Grant Williams but I humbly think there are few things he is missing. There are risks that Tesla may indeed go bankrupt. The risks are real. That being said Ross Gerber is a blow hard. And so is Mark Spiegel, "Tesla has nothing meaningfully proprietary..???? " My humble thoughts on where Tesla has distinct advantages that will be very hard to overcome if they survive.... 1.) $/kWh manufatucring cost for batteries. Tesla is way ahead and getting further ahead. 2.) Being able to regenerate the battery/not drain the battery during acceleration/breaking due to amperage requirements/bottleneck in battery pack. Tesla just bought the global best in class capacitor company that addresses these issues. Very good for cars. Huge fore semi. 3.) Same acquisition has new technology which DOES NOT require solvent/heat based application of cathode anode in battery manufacture. This increases battery density and storage capacity and MASSIVELY decreases energy inputs/cost for manufacturing AND alleviates toxic solvent which must be evaporated off in current process. Decreases manufacturing cost, (See 1 above) and decreases battery volume and weight. Less battery cost/weight/volume and MORE range. Also compare competitors batteries use of cobalt to Tesla's. Eye opening. 4.) New chipset for autonomous driving. Current chipset (nVidia) optimized for video output. In house designed chipset is an order of magnitude faster. 5.) Fleet miles driven using current autopilot. No one is even close, again by an order of magnitude. 6.) Do you think Tesla is getting smarter or dumber in regards to number of parts need to manufacture cars/types of fittings fasteners etc? 7.) Legacy players have dealership networks which chew tinto margins. 8.) Legacy players have internal politics resistance to fight in regards to how to accolocate talent and resources. 9.) Legacy players still have advertising expenses which Tesla has none of. 10.) Supercharger network. Where you gonna charge your Audi, Porsche, etc? 11.) Tesla has vertically integrated their supply chain. Legacy manufacturers exist at behest of 3rd party suppliers. 12.) Rate of innovation matters. #jerk https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jerk_(physics) NO ONE is even close nor can they compete. Just a few points I never hear the bears come within hailing distance of addressing. Have more if interested. Tesla may fail. But their are quite a few MASSIVE optionality fat tail value generator plays, any one of which could blow the bears out of the water. I could wrong.
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CBEntertaining piece - BTW, don’t own the stock but have owned a Model S since 2016; great product and great service - just sayin.....
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PSI don't know how you sat in a car like that with Gerber without bursting out laughing We live in a world devoid of critical thought and Gerber is a low flying individual
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TRComplaining about TSLA subsidies may be a legitimate gripe, however it is not an attribute for your short thesis.
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DHAlso love you Grant and appreciate tackling this one - but this was a Vanity Flair fluff piece. Where was the investment thesis of both sides? it was all subjective “I believe” which is no way to argue a case - esp this one. RV should be setting the bar higher here than what CNBC would publish and then let viewers have a reasoned debate on the facts. We don’t need to agree but it’s hard to move beyond the superficial when neither side clearly lays out its thesis with substance and facts.
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JS