A Chemical Look at the Global Economy

Published on
December 3rd, 2018
28 minutes

A Chemical Look at the Global Economy

The Expert View ·
Featuring Paul Hodges

Published on: December 3rd, 2018 • Duration: 28 minutes

Has the global economy already entered recession? Paul Hodges, chairman of International eChem, unpacks the relationship between economic growth and chemical production - which, in Hodges's analysis, suggests a recession may have already begun. Filmed on November 19, 2018 in London.


  • CL
    Claus L.
    6 January 2019 @ 15:41
    Don’t wait another 2 ½ years.....
  • CL
    Claus L.
    6 January 2019 @ 15:34
    Please bring Paul back, should he be willing.
  • TM
    The-First-James M.
    20 December 2018 @ 15:04
    Absolutely fan-****ing-tastic! Please bring back Paul as a regular. That observation about Rhine water levels blew me away!
  • JB
    Jason B.
    13 December 2018 @ 07:33
    Fantastic interview! Very interesting insights. A new leading economic indicator?
  • FC
    Frank C.
    6 December 2018 @ 04:52
    Would be really great to read Paul’s pH Report on Think Tank!
  • PD
    Pat D.
    6 December 2018 @ 01:57
    I like that he is using base fundamental supply and demand
  • DX
    Dominus X.
    5 December 2018 @ 13:22
    Straight talk Good stuff
  • SW
    Szymon W.
    5 December 2018 @ 05:23
    Excellent interview! Thank you
  • RK
    Robert K.
    5 December 2018 @ 00:38
    A voice of reason among all the cheerleading! Very helpful.
  • RD
    Rahul D.
    5 December 2018 @ 00:27
    Absolutely awesome. Loved the very objective assessment of macro trends and where we are potentially headed. Keep up the great content, RV!
  • SS
    Sam S.
    4 December 2018 @ 20:43
  • SM
    Sarit M.
    4 December 2018 @ 16:53
    Great insights, Paul. Thanks for sharing. Loved your common sense approach coupled with appreciation of technicals in current scenario. Hope to see you on RV more often.
  • GT
    Graham T.
    3 December 2018 @ 17:29
    Hang on , weren't we talking about the chemical market. where was the Y-on-Y RoC data on supplies or demand for millions of tons of this chemical or that chemical. where is the chat about gases, or calcium or sodium or magnesium. he seems to go off "message" I can hear all about this from the squid. where are we in the Chemical cycle? as soon as he mentioned today's classic bogeyman "shadow banking" i knew we weren't taking about the chemical cycle. shame , another one who predicted the gfc. how many is that now?
    • DS
      David S.
      3 December 2018 @ 18:54
      Nevertheless, IMO a major slowdown or recession is on the way. This is consensus now, but Mr. Hodges may have given his clients a heads up much earlier, thereby giving them a chance to take action. My motivation in the market itself is fun/fear. I can get in or out momentarily. Corporations and big funds cannot. DLS
    • AM
      Andrew M.
      3 December 2018 @ 20:46
      He's explained it here: https://www.ft.com/content/4da7544b-6f6c-39cf-bee1-99c46a62577f. There's another piece that's no behind a paywall. .. Although interestingly he predicted a recession in 2017, just when Chinese M1 was about to rip it. https://www.investmentweek.co.uk/investment-week/news/2477985/chemical-industry-downturn-warns-of-recession-in-2017. that does make some sense tho: m1 by definition has to increase before you see the knock-on to commodities and chemicals. Now Chinese m1 has fallen off a cliff (fastest fall ever) and its property market looks very fragile indeed. They desperately need some more stimulus...
    • PH
      Paul H. | Contributor
      4 December 2018 @ 16:49
      If you like to visit our site, you will see our collateral for the claims re gfc. What you are mentioning is the first section every month in our Report. Unfortunately I can't seem to actually post charts in reply, but very happy to send these showing global, sector and regional trends if you would like to email me at phodges@thephreport.com
  • PG
    Philippe G.
    4 December 2018 @ 01:12
    Interesting approach, but would have liked a bit more details on the underlying mechanics of the chemicals industry...The analysis provided by the American Chemistry Council, what exactly in terms of indicators/metrics? Wasn't expecting the secret sauce recipe of course, but this interview was a bit more global macro, rather then chemicals...
    • PH
      Paul H. | Contributor
      4 December 2018 @ 16:47
      :46 0 0 As above, unfortunately I can't seem to actually post charts in reply, but very happy to send these showing global, sector and regional trends if you would like to email me at phodges@thephreport.com
  • ml
    michael l.
    4 December 2018 @ 02:12
    Would have preferred to hear a lot more about how the chemical sector data is signaling a global slowdown....references to different data points and how they pointed to the 2007-8 downturn and what they are saying now. As it is, I heard how chemical demand is an early warning sign for auto and housing markets, and that is proving out again, but that was the extent of it. Then, it was off to a lot of topics of a more global macro nature.
    • PH
      Paul H. | Contributor
      4 December 2018 @ 16:46
      Unfortunately I can't seem to actually post charts in reply, but very happy to send these showing global, sector and regional trends if you would like to email me at phodges@thephreport.com
  • RM
    Ross M.
    4 December 2018 @ 08:58
    It's wonderful to hear commonsense, brilliance simplified.
  • DS
    David S.
    3 December 2018 @ 18:57
    Clamping down on Chinese shadow banking and Bitcoin is important outside of China. Inside China the PBOC is adding liquidity. The money that did not get out must be invested or held in China. No one knows where the balance is or will be, but this is Chinese government policy for the foreseeable future. DLS
    • DR
      David R.
      4 December 2018 @ 07:37
      Maybe in property as property prices are are up 17-25% just since July. Real assets are most popular in Asia; land and precious metals. Gold up 5.5% since Aug in dollar terms, and in Yuan as USD/CNY is the same price now as end of Aug.
  • EF
    Eric F.
    4 December 2018 @ 02:40
    Excellent. 9 downvotes as of now, incomprehensible.
    • DS
      David S.
      4 December 2018 @ 06:49
      Down votes without comments are not helpful. A thumbs down vote with a comment can have substance and add to the discussion. DLS
  • JF
    Joseph F.
    4 December 2018 @ 06:02
  • OT
    Omar T.
    3 December 2018 @ 16:43
    Also, Paul Hodges opinion on bonds is directly contradictory to Raoul's opinion as I understand, so it would be interesting for Raoul to provide his thoughts in response.
    • JS
      Jon S.
      3 December 2018 @ 22:38
      As of this writing is seems Raoul is more right on bonds. Paul's view of the 10 yr going to 4% baffles me given his recession call.
    • EF
      Eric F.
      4 December 2018 @ 02:44
      Doesn’t seem that baffling to me, says too much leverage / margin calls so everything - bonds included - going to converge. Not saying I agree, but I think his explanation is understandable.
  • PB
    Pieter B.
    4 December 2018 @ 02:40
    Thanks a lot for the excellent presentation!
  • ml
    michael l.
    4 December 2018 @ 02:14
    4% 10YY and economic downturn .... it's just not happening. I'll bet we see a sub 2% 10YY if a downturn arrives.
  • JW
    Jason W.
    3 December 2018 @ 22:25
    I’m really impressed with this interview RealVision. I’ve never heard an approach like this one. Really stimulating product you offer. A happy subscriber 👍🏻
  • OT
    Omar T.
    3 December 2018 @ 16:35
    One thing about the baby boomers, in past recessions, they have always been convinced to stick with or get back into the markets because they were told over time things will recover. I think things will be different next time we have a bad downturn and the baby boomers are in retirement or near retirement because they will say "I cannot afford to wait for the markets to recover". So there is a risk at a certain point of creating a very bad feedback loop.
    • DS
      David S.
      3 December 2018 @ 19:05
      I agree for most of the baby boomers, but there are many wealthy baby boomers investing for their heirs. It would be interesting to see the differences in their actions in a market downturn. Maybe family office portfolios would help in the understanding. DLS
  • ap
    alexandre p.
    3 December 2018 @ 12:51
    fantastic. on top of your game Paul
  • Nv
    Nick v.
    3 December 2018 @ 11:54
    I learnt something new today. Great interview. Thank you
  • AR
    Abishek R.
    3 December 2018 @ 11:13
    Brilliant thesis.
  • CD
    Chris D.
    3 December 2018 @ 10:07
    Elegant discussion, really enjoyed this one. Excellent!