Beware the Bear Market Rally

Published on
March 25th, 2020
Duration
39 minutes


Beware the Bear Market Rally

The Expert View ·
Featuring Julian Brigden

Published on: March 25th, 2020 • Duration: 39 minutes

Are stock market rallies a sign that the bear market might be over? To Julian Brigden of MI2 Partners and of Macro Insiders, the answer to this question is a resounding no. He argues that in such times of extreme volatility, melt-ups are to be expected – but these brief flashes of upward momentum offer nothing more than false hope. Surveying the latest macroeconomic data, Brigden concludes that a significant contraction in GDP growth is imminent and that a sustained recovery in stocks and bonds is unlikely because consumer spending is extremely vulnerable to social distancing. Brigden also comments on central banks' responses to the ongoing crisis and notes that their liquidity injections reduce the risk-reward of shorting traditional assets. Filmed on March 18, 2020, over Skype. Please click this link to find all of Julian's charts here: https://rvtv.io/39kyDrY

Comments

Transcript

  • GL
    G L.
    20 April 2020 @ 12:49
    I don't think what emerges from this will be a golden era for macro at all. Quite the opposite in fact. I see the major central banks buying all assets (including the yield curve and therefore the cost of capital) and crowding out the marginal investors. I see opps in technology and in VC when this blows over.
  • EV
    Erik V.
    27 March 2020 @ 02:33
    How is the title “beware the bear market rally” but the parting advice is to “buy the dip”?
    • SM
      Shivani M.
      31 March 2020 @ 17:35
      Buy the dip further down
  • JT
    Jayne T.
    30 March 2020 @ 23:48
    Julian, there is nothing more to do. We squandered money with the tax cuts and Trump jawboning Powell to lower rates to keep his approval ratings high. We have no ammunition left—monetarily or fiscally. We will have a fiat currency and we will have to hyper-inflate to get out of this mess. Hyper inflation brings in autocrats and dictators. We will see 1,000 before it’s all over.
  • SM
    Shivani M.
    30 March 2020 @ 19:46
    Deeply offended that Julian trophy hunted the rare white stag
  • DH
    David H.
    26 March 2020 @ 22:22
    Always right on, he is. After riding this tiger since 1994 as a PM, we need to really take stock of the macro macro model that got us here. Perhaps we weren’t really so brilliant after all. If we are just managing the kids funds anyway, its tempting to call this next “turning” as un investible (at least without a new tool box), and retreat into preservation with real things. The “Gentlemans) allocation of 10% to gold probably drifts toward 20%. See u all on the other side.
  • SR
    Senthilkumar R.
    25 March 2020 @ 19:20
    when was this recorded?
    • DG
      Dave G.
      25 March 2020 @ 20:20
      Read the description above. Every video has the filmed date in the description.
    • AA
      Alex A.
      25 March 2020 @ 20:22
      march 18th they say further down in the comments. they also say they would rather take a raw unedited video faster during these times. a week lag is an eternity in these times when every day feels like a month has gone by.
    • DM
      Dwayne M.
      25 March 2020 @ 20:35
      I think he said Mar 18.
    • GT
      Gideon T.
      25 March 2020 @ 21:30
      march 18
    • MR
      Milton R. | Founder
      26 March 2020 @ 16:30
      Hey Senthilkumar, I'll copy my comment from a previous video. We understand that film date is important to you, but we removed it because it was becoming a way to ignore or diminish the substance of the video without actually addressing what about it was out of date. If something has changed and a specific takeaway is no longer valid please express this in the comments, but saying "5 days old!" is not a substantial enough argument. We are getting content out faster than ever now, and whether the piece was filmed a week ago or yesterday it is the ideas are the important part. We want to highlight those over everything. If we feel a piece of content is entirely stale or potentially misleading, whether it was filmed yesterday or 2 weeks ago, we will not publish it. That is the main responsibility of the editorial team. Our general rules are 1) that there is almost always insight to be had because our guests are looking out more than a few days and 2) our viewers will always appreciate more perspectives, even if a few things have changed since filming.
  • CY
    Charles Y.
    25 March 2020 @ 18:36
    Boomers and other old people: listen carefully to what Julian is saying towards. I cannot stress this enough I feel like we are in 1905 Russia, the people are waking up. I can rant for hours but simply put you must not dig your heads in the sand and believe that revolution is not possible in America, it’s coming. So before you go and whine about how you can’t get any RISK FREE YIELD (spoiled much) you better come to grips with the changes that will be coming shortly. I am not a communist or a socialist, I used to be libertarian but now I am just a revolutionary, I will go with who ever gets your generation out of congress and replaces our two party system.
    • CY
      Charles Y.
      25 March 2020 @ 18:37
      Towards the end of the video* clearly I’m not an organized revolutionary yet haha.
    • JD
      Jarod D.
      25 March 2020 @ 18:58
      Be careful who you back. Once the angry mob is on the move, you may not like the end result.
    • JD
      Jarod D.
      25 March 2020 @ 19:00
      I agree that changes are needed, but in this environment I don't see any way out of our current system except toward something worse.
    • WG
      Wade G.
      25 March 2020 @ 20:55
      Meh. Sorry Charles, I'm a boomer and I can't get excited about your post. Don't get me wrong, I'd like to empty all branches of government of current incumbents, knee-cap both hopelessly corrupt political parties, wash out anyone who's made a dime lobbying government for anything, end the Fed. Seriously, I agree the country is a devolving hot mess and the worst of the slide has happened on boomers' watch. But I have two problems with your post. First, why on earth, of the 100's of reasonable complaints u might level, do you choose to denigrate a desire for any "risk free yield". Do you understand money and time preference? Do u understand financial repression: the imposition of negative real rates on savings, that exists in size whether official measures of inflation reflect it or not? Do you see that the Fed & Government's theft of citizens savings, thru financial repression is immoral? Can u connect the predictable implosion of the stock & bond bubbles, and all the damage it will bring, to the "reach for yield" that inevitably resulted from the financial repression you seem to excuse, if not endorse? Do u get that that very "reach for yield" was the plan? Your remark seems to suggest that there hasn't been sufficient willingness in boomers to take or accept risk. That's ludicrous. Whether we all knew it or not, obviously as a group, we took a boat load of risk. And the bust underway will begin to reveal the extent and nature of the malinvestments. Or do you mean to imply we're greedy, for wanting to preserve the purchasing power of wages that were paid to us for our labor, without taking ludicrous risk? This gets to my second concern. What's your plan? Whatever it is, I hope its informed by some very clear thinking about the issues above. Boomers as a generation were in place during the recent period of America's decline; I think it's undeniable. I'd like to think future generations, perhaps starting now with yours, will do better. It won't be easy.
    • TW
      Thomas W.
      25 March 2020 @ 21:53
      The only people who stand to gain from a revolution are those who purport to be on your side! Everyone else ends up worse off. Four Legs Good: Two Legs Bad!
    • MR
      Matthew R.
      26 March 2020 @ 02:33
      Things have been turbocharged now with the virus and the massive stimulas again propping up assets at the expense of the younger generations. It's basically a ponzi scheme that is about to collapse.
    • JC
      Jason C.
      26 March 2020 @ 05:27
      @Wade G. From a Zillenial, you're one of the good ones.
    • JP
      John P.
      26 March 2020 @ 07:40
      I'm a millennial libertarian. I don't like where things are going but I agree the writing is on the wall. Just like 1971 we will follow the path of least resistance and that means a devalued currency to pay out less entitlements.
    • WM
      Will M.
      26 March 2020 @ 13:57
      I'm with you Wade, in exactly the same position. Charles do remember when we all bandy about these generational terms, that the majority of baby boomers have no savings or investments to talk about. Perhaps only about 10% have six figures of capital they can control. Most are not burying the heads in the sand, most simply do not think about more than getting by month to month. I do believe a revolution of sort is coming, however, once the masses grab those pitch forks and torches (the petrol bombs of today) they are likely to be indiscriminate in their use, or least that is what history shows. I think there will be a swing to the "democratic" socialist left by many younger people. If you lived through the 60s and 70s we know where that will lead.....and it won't be a better place.
  • ns
    niall s.
    25 March 2020 @ 20:05
    I often wonder when I see someone promoting a financial service that is simply wonderful ,why they trade this fabulous information on their own behalf instead of flogging it to the likes of us . I sure you know what the answer is.
    • DS
      David S.
      25 March 2020 @ 21:09
      Instead of wondering why not ask? DLS
    • JL
      J L.
      26 March 2020 @ 07:52
      rest assured he does trade it
  • SB
    Steffen B.
    25 March 2020 @ 21:26
    Guys, Julian unfortunately is in a league where you have to pay more to get timely access to. And if it's not for him Gretchen will make sure he doesn't give away all the goodies for free ^_^
    • JL
      J L.
      26 March 2020 @ 07:51
      yup
  • WM
    Will M.
    25 March 2020 @ 16:05
    Great general commentary Julian. Trying, ......yet fully predicted times!
    • WM
      Will M.
      25 March 2020 @ 16:14
      When you say cash Julian, what is cash to you!
    • DG
      Dave G.
      25 March 2020 @ 20:39
      Didn't he say buy the dip? Seems early to me to buy the dip. Sort of goes against the message of the video.
    • SJ
      Sean J.
      25 March 2020 @ 22:50
      He listed a myriad of conditions that must be seen to “buy the dip”. Take notes or read the transcript.
    • MR
      Matthew R.
      26 March 2020 @ 02:35
      He also said we won't see the dip until the virus peaks.
  • BM
    Beth M.
    25 March 2020 @ 18:14
    At least he didn't have to swear his brains out to get his point across! (Now watch the snowflakes get upset because they don't understand...typical communication ethics!) Please get the updates out faster.
    • BM
      Beth M.
      25 March 2020 @ 20:01
      Four snowflakes and counting...
    • MR
      Matthew R.
      26 March 2020 @ 02:34
      What are you nattering on about?
  • MR
    Matthew R.
    26 March 2020 @ 02:30
    Interesting.
  • js
    j s.
    25 March 2020 @ 21:12
    All time highs by election.
  • WS
    William S.
    25 March 2020 @ 20:56
    Dated -
  • AJ
    Andrew J.
    25 March 2020 @ 07:51
    Thank you, but what do I trade?
    • Cd
      Christiano d.
      25 March 2020 @ 19:28
      I think the message is... hold cash and buy the dip!!
  • PW
    Pit W.
    25 March 2020 @ 17:15
    Amazing Interview. Why do we see this one week later? Was filmed March 18...
    • JD
      Jarod D.
      25 March 2020 @ 18:55
      Agreed. When things are moving so quickly, I'd take a raw, unedited video today over a polished video next week. That said, Julian's view is quite valuable in the middle of this bear-market rally (which may end tomorrow morning).
  • SS
    Steven S.
    25 March 2020 @ 18:12
    Julian is the best. Exceptional track record.
  • RY
    Roy Y.
    25 March 2020 @ 16:47
    Superb ... Thank you Julian ...
  • JE
    J E.
    25 March 2020 @ 16:34
    fantastic & timely overview, thank you!
  • OE
    Oliver E.
    25 March 2020 @ 10:08
    Unfortunately most of this is irrelevant already. A week is like a year in this current climate.
    • DJ
      D J.
      25 March 2020 @ 10:28
      FYI: They have been speaking about this theme for several years.
    • SM
      Sean M.
      25 March 2020 @ 14:55
      He also has big clients at MI2 that he has to update first. Raoul has similar with GMI. I'm sure they have to take care of those clients first and give them a head start on the info they provide given the price of those newsletters.
    • WM
      Will M.
      25 March 2020 @ 16:08
      Yes I think both Raoul and Julian are probably working long hours to assist their high paying customers first. You can't expect short term timely trades for a few hundred bucks a year.
  • HA
    Hammad A.
    25 March 2020 @ 10:46
    What levels of S&P would indicate a bottom?
    • JS
      Jon S.
      25 March 2020 @ 11:07
      zero
    • WM
      Will M.
      25 March 2020 @ 15:51
      Hammad, that depends on so many things. I subscribe to 3 (not cheap, incl RV top service) advisors and even they are currently quite far apart. I have NO clue personally. My focus is return of my money not on my money.
  • jm
    james m.
    25 March 2020 @ 14:30
    is that your boarding school hat and tie on the wall JB?
    • WM
      Will M.
      25 March 2020 @ 15:46
      Wish I had kept my school blazer and tie, together with the odd report card that said I talk too much and should do well in a trade...... However luck was on my side.
  • LA
    Linda A.
    25 March 2020 @ 14:56
    Nassau county, long island is ramping up by the thousands. My Sil has the virus. She is recovering at home. Most people do not go to the hospital unless they can't breathe. My friend's brother is in the hospital. People are not taking precautions in the supermarket. Really scary times because the reported #'s keep accelerating.
  • pd
    peter d.
    25 March 2020 @ 14:56
    i dont see an improvement until 80% or more have got it. so, we need to 10X beds and respirators throughout the world. dont think beyond that for now. its like building spitfires or something
  • LA
    Linda A.
    25 March 2020 @ 14:45
    Wow eye popping. Tremendous losses for some hedge funds. Thank u -great analysis.
  • PS
    Peter S.
    25 March 2020 @ 08:33
    Great interview, but pls shorten the time from filming to release!
    • DP
      Duane P.
      25 March 2020 @ 14:43
      This
  • WE
    William E.
    25 March 2020 @ 14:22
    Thanks Julian.... as always "The Best"! - Larry
  • BT
    Brian T.
    25 March 2020 @ 10:38
    Maybe we can build a list together? DIG, SQ, SQQQ, DIS, ???
  • DJ
    D J.
    25 March 2020 @ 10:26
    Julian is so right, Credit funds has had massive outflow the last weeks.
  • LT
    Loran T.
    25 March 2020 @ 09:57
    Why wait 1 week with the release given current market dynamics?
  • JV
    Jonas V.
    25 March 2020 @ 09:49
    Great video! But tell maybe how to make some money now?
  • KK
    Kevin K.
    25 March 2020 @ 08:34
    Slide deck?
  • yy
    yip y.
    25 March 2020 @ 08:10
    Plz add sub titles. Comprehension is better when one can hear & see the words together - thank you.
  • WA
    Wissam A.
    25 March 2020 @ 07:14
    Julian I follow on you twitter and I would love more detailed tweets if you can. Keep up the good work.
  • AL
    Aaron L.
    25 March 2020 @ 06:54
    Fk'n awesome, this is why i subscribe to RV . Clear, no nonsense, well thought out viewpoint. Agree or disagree, you have to take his arguments very seriously
  • JD
    John D.
    25 March 2020 @ 05:55
    A timely and reactive video...well done RV
  • JD
    John D.
    25 March 2020 @ 05:55
    A timely and reactive video...well done RV