Coronavirus, Crude, Energy Equities, and IMO 2020

Published on
March 9th, 2020
Duration
34 minutes


Coronavirus, Crude, Energy Equities, and IMO 2020

The Expert View ·
Featuring Warren Pies

Published on: March 9th, 2020 • Duration: 34 minutes

Crude oil and the energy sector have both been extremely unloved in the past few years, perhaps for good reason. Still, many said the negative sentiment had gone too far and that both were strong contenders to rebound in 2020. But then came coronavirus, and now once again, energy equities and oil are out of favor. To update us on these markets that are squarely in the crosshairs of coronavirus, we have Warren Pies, chief energy strategist for Ned Davis Research. In this interview, Pies explains his no-nonsense approach to examining crude oil and the energy sector in general – providing outlooks for both. He also updates viewers on an idea you may have heard about last year from Real Vision contributors like Harris Kupperman – tankers and IMO 2020. Filmed on March 4, 2020 in New York.

Comments

Transcript

  • br
    brad r.
    10 March 2020 @ 01:06
    Ive been a member for a year on Realvision and I have recommended it to countless of other asscs that have subsequently subscribed in good faith and with no expectations of personal reward for those referrals ... but I dont like the way this new ‘member’ scheme is shaping up ... for the past 12 mths I’ve had access to all videos which I value and is all I want from the platform ... but all of a sudden I’m being asked to pay 2.5x to upgrade to a ‘plus’ membership in order to access a 10min ‘flash update' by Raoul ... I agree with Matthew R below re being given some access to X amount of free content per mth as an ‘Essential’ member ... and upgrades for members who intro other subscribers (and yes they are ‘subscribers’ even if you try and call them ‘members’) ... cmon RV you guys are better than this ... Think about your members and not your own pockets!
    • DI
      Dabangg I.
      10 March 2020 @ 02:12
      Agree kind of feel like we are left to dry with one of the most important times in market in 10 years. The content suddenly became sparse and the price went up. Losing faith here.
    • SD
      Serenna D.
      10 March 2020 @ 03:26
      Agreed. What I find more irritating is that I have to swift through videos to try and find ones I can actually watch. This doesn't respect my time, and while I appreciate they are trying to entice you to upgrade, the reality is, if I had the money, I would. So, just let me see what I paid for so I can get on with my day.
    • MR
      Matthew R.
      10 March 2020 @ 04:26
      Agreed, I got some really good information regarding the markets today from Macro Voices, Peter Schiff, and a few others. Yet I paid them nothing, and the only service I pay for at the moment is RV, yet I'm still using free sources to get all my information. I'm sure the full service is well worth the money if you are a bigger trader or investor, but the essential membership isn't even as good as free sources. What they need to do is allow access to a certain number of the premium videos per month, and then the rest you either have to upgrade for, or they should offer for an additional fee. Then the top end membership would remove all the restrictions, and give you the access to the chat with Raoul Paul etc... When I signed up I thought I'd be getting access to the up to date video content.
    • VH
      Victor H.
      10 March 2020 @ 04:27
      Exactly, especially we are in the middle of a big selloff and this is the time we need RV the most. I already turn off the auto renew for my current membership. Disappointed by what RV is doing,
    • GW
      Geoff W.
      10 March 2020 @ 05:45
      There is no comparable content to RV and in my experience the plus membership/pro membership are worth every penny. If you just want long form discussions with the world's experts in finance, geopolitics etc.. then have standard membership but if you want access to these experts in real time then you have to upgrade. If you want flash updates on a par with institutional advice which costs $$$$ then pay for pro. The membership is simple and clear. RV is not a charity and there are significant costs with filming , editing and lining up the guest speakers. I would expect that RV could make a lot more money if it opened itself up for some advertising revenue instead of relying on these membership fees. I can't understand why so many people are willing to spend $5++ (US$10 here in Hong Kong!) each on several crap coffees from starbucks or pay to watch inane 'boxset' series on Netflix but you aren't willing to pay a reasonable cost for unbiased financial advice that just isn't available anywhere else. It makes me think they you have no sense of what things are worth to produce or what they are worth to you and you have a total sense of entitlement. I applaud the RV team and am eternally grateful to all the hard work they are doing to help us navigate this financial armaggedon. Their advice is invaluable to me. As you say Raoul, buy bonds, wear diamonds, thank you :)
    • CL
      Cyril L.
      10 March 2020 @ 07:12
      Guys, you get exactly the same content as before. It's just that now you see additional videos that are available to other membership levels. It may be that the interface could be clearer and the videos categorized better. Could we please leave the comment section to comments about the interview itself? Most of us found it interesting. If you're not happy, it's a free world but please contact RV separately and/or don't renew your membership and use other sources. Bad faith comments aren't helpful to anyone.
    • TB
      Troy B.
      10 March 2020 @ 09:02
      Couldn't agree more, "the exchange" was once a given watch on the lowest subscription, now they've decided to put a pay wall in front of it. We had Roaoul Pal telling us all that the subscription rate has quadrupled in the last 12 months but now we get less content and pay walls in front of once standard content. It's turned more into a cash grab platform than anything else of late. I'm unsubscribing after this subscription is done, get just as good content off youtube Same guests same topics but for free.
    • JQ
      James Q.
      10 March 2020 @ 10:01
      It's no longer about democratisation of finance. It's now about monetisation of finance.
    • MW
      M W.
      10 March 2020 @ 21:31
      Agree 100! Half the content I see now is locked! Really turns me off....first the quantity of content increased then quality deteriorated significantly...I am considering to cancel my subscription. Too much noise now...
    • EW
      Evan W.
      11 March 2020 @ 01:22
      Responding to Geoff W. I've been a member for over 3 years, and I have never found the offerings simple and clear. It started as three videos a week, then it was 15-18, and now it is completely confusing. I think the roll-out was really poor (75% of videos being locked). But as you said, I can unsubscribe, which is what I am doing. Unfortunately, I signed up for a two-year subscription when I thought the service was outstanding. I've asked for a refund multiple times over the past year, but still have over a year left. I think the product is not what it was when I renewed. You are wrong about such interviews not being available for free elsewhere. Start listening to podcasts like Macrovoices, Invest Like the Best, Hidden Forces, etc. I hear Raoul and Grant and other guests (e.g., Chris Cole, Mike Green, Josh Wolfe, etc) for free all the time. I thought their podcast "Adventures in Podcast" was the best I've ever listened to, so I signed up for Real Vision not to be a free loader. I donate voluntarily to multiple other podcasts through Patreon. I don't find it to be the same product that I signed up for and I don't think I will miss it.
    • JP
      John P.
      11 March 2020 @ 21:01
      The product may have been modified but it's still way more than what was a year ago. For the think tank subscribers the price actually went down. I can see frustration but seriously what you get at all levels is a great deal. Many of their guests also have subscription content that is way way less plentiful and costs way more (and a lot of it is still worth it). Have some business insight here. Did you get emails about RV stock offering? Did you get emails about signing up for a multi-year subscription? Do the math. RV is a growing business taking every penny you give them and putting it back into content. Personally I hope the shareholders make a great profit in the long run for the excellent service they've created but acting like they're taking your money at this point is so flawed and on an investment media platform of all places this should go without saying.
    • DM
      Douglas M.
      13 March 2020 @ 02:23
      Great comment. I'm shocked it's still here - RV has been relentless in their deleting comments critical of the new (insulting) system.
    • JL
      James L.
      13 March 2020 @ 04:12
      Agreed, telling you again Raoul. Charter member here, paid up on the basis of receiving ALL content for one fee. This tiering is garbage.
  • MR
    Matthew R.
    9 March 2020 @ 18:38
    I came onto RV to see you opinion on the current market, and you give us shit from a week ago when oil was still at $50. We cannot even watch your recent video because it's locked behind a paywall even though I've already subscribed. RV is a joke tbh, I'd be better off just getting your free content from youtube. What a joke.
    • TM
      The-First-James M.
      9 March 2020 @ 18:44
      Some of us have paid over $2000 to get Raoul's thoughts in near real time. I think your expectations are not realistic.
    • rc
      rhett c.
      9 March 2020 @ 18:59
      I agree to certain extent...i am grateful for the free content ....however, and I am not alone in this thinking, there are multiple private social media groups out there where intro paying customer's to RV are very scorned bc there's just not much value in what content is accessible. Most of us paid a few $100 to access content that is old and available for free on YouTube....and now they're trying to upsell the premium, and other products that cost 5X as much?! Youd think their marketing team would have better long-term plan for building trust and loyal customers....bummer :-/
    • MR
      Matthew R.
      9 March 2020 @ 20:50
      I think they should allow basic subscribers to access some of the premium content, perhaps just limit it to a certain number of videos a month. As I paying member I expect to at least get up to date content that hasn't been pre-recorded a week ago. This isn't really much over what I can pick up from the RV youtube channel. Macro voices is much better and it's completely free.
    • CL
      Cyril L.
      9 March 2020 @ 22:59
      Matthew, I think you just have no idea how much quality research costs. I'm a financial professional and can tell you that the value provided by all RV membership levels is off the charts. Even with what happened over the weekend, this interview still provide very valuable insights. Nothing is free. If you want more real time content, upgrade your membership. Your comment is completely unfair.
    • MK
      Mark K.
      9 March 2020 @ 23:19
      I do think RV plans could be spelled out more clearly from the get go.
    • CM
      Chris M.
      10 March 2020 @ 00:36
      Specialty products like RV can’t survive on free content. If they sold ads, it would not cover their costs of production. Getting the subscription levels to where they work as a business and provide the value for consumers is a balancing act that they are trying to figure out.
    • RP
      Ryan P.
      10 March 2020 @ 00:42
      Your here for the wrong reasons. Videos from 2+ years ago carry more weight now then they did when I watched them. Learn the process and how look at stuff -that’s the value.
    • MR
      Matthew R.
      10 March 2020 @ 04:13
      Look, I've got no problem with the content, and some of the older stuff is good as well with nice production and good quality research. But for a paid service, it's like going to a Michelin Star Restaurant and they serve you only the bread. I can get better info than this from free sources and so it's not value for money. It'd be better if they just scrapped the low tier subscription than offer this, then at least we'd know that we need to pay the $500 to get something worthwhile and could make our decision on that.
    • MR
      Milton R. | Founder
      10 March 2020 @ 11:40
      Matt, because you made the Michelin star restaurant, I think this comparison is good. It's perfectly okay to go to one and order a single course and a glass of wine. Or course plus desert. You get to experience extremely high quality and you'll enjoy your time. It's also perfectly okay to order a tasting menu accompanied by wine and an all around incredible experience. This is what we offer with the upper tiers.
    • JM
      John M.
      10 March 2020 @ 20:11
      I am a member from the very outset of RV. I value the service and remains a loyal customer BUT I also have concerns. I'm a little disappointed with the new membership scheme. Please consider the following: If people want research reports please charge separately. If having a video everyday is too expensive to allow for anything extra then cut back on the videos. BUT give us a few timely, short videos or e-mails (not everything has to be a video - I can read!) that offer perspective given turbulent market conditions we are experiencing! PS whatever happened to Grant Williams?
    • EW
      Evan W.
      11 March 2020 @ 01:37
      I don't understand the people who say the change is simple and straightforward. I renewed for a two year subscription last March, and now the offering is definitely not the same as when I renewed. I'm also fine with that - Real Vision has to charge the right price for them. I just don't think it is straightforward when they change the offering and say "we were giving you good stuff for free earlier". Maybe I renewed because I thought I would continue to receive everything I was seeing. Finally, I think Real Vision could get rid of a lot of the unhappy customers by offering refunds instead of credits. Real Vision is not a joke, but to expect people on the low tier to be excited about a reduction in content is probably not realistic. I wish Real Vision the best, but I won't miss it when my subscription ends. I only joined because I loved Adventures in Finance and didn't want to be a freeloader. Now the podcast is gone and Grant Williams has disappeared, so I'm leaving too.
    • JP
      John P.
      11 March 2020 @ 21:32
      If you watch the whole video he goes on to explain that he thinks crude could go down to the $30s and one should have a shopping list. No one could have predicted what Suadi and Russia talks were going to lead to in a 4 day turnaround. The great part is that he gave commentary on some midstream players to buy when they dip, instead of waiting months for this to play out it happened in 2 days. I bet RV will have more videos on oil in the next few months, same content happened when gold miners dipped 20% before they recovered to 5-6 year highs.
  • FM
    Floyd M.
    11 March 2020 @ 16:34
    Warren Pies? I guess his parents were Tolstoy fans. Reminds me of my old girlfriend Helen Joy (for real).
  • TZ
    Tibor Z.
    9 March 2020 @ 14:04
    OMG ! Oli crashed more than 20% today. Never seen like this!
    • TZ
      Tibor Z.
      9 March 2020 @ 14:05
      Just couple days after Raoul said oil will drop to 20ish! Lets see!
    • DJ
      D J.
      10 March 2020 @ 15:24
      Well, Raoul has had the view that oil should go lover for a long time.
  • JA
    John A.
    9 March 2020 @ 11:31
    No way for this guy to see the Russia Saudi price war kick off. I think it changes his timeline, but not his thesis.
    • WP
      Warren P. | Contributor
      9 March 2020 @ 17:46
      Filmed March 4th (last Wednesday)...Didn't see the price war...Underlying message doesn't change.
  • JF
    John F.
    9 March 2020 @ 11:07
    So, let's see Mr. Pies' prediction from a month ago that crude would go down.
    • WP
      Warren P. | Contributor
      9 March 2020 @ 17:00
      https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/10/the-coronavirus-is-a-black-swan-for-oil-and-energy-markets-says-ned-davis-research.html
  • EO
    Elena O.
    9 March 2020 @ 11:54
    Slightly behind in time 😂
  • KK
    Karel K.
    9 March 2020 @ 09:50
    how can you make discussion about the impact of coronavirus on oil market so boring ?
  • BD
    Ben D.
    9 March 2020 @ 07:47
    Good interview. great charts and explanations. Harris also has a Twitter where he posts his thoughts and ideas constantly. @Khuppy
  • ZY
    ZHENG Y.
    9 March 2020 @ 07:46
    oh wait, oil dip to 30-ish when I wake up today. Everything crash in the morning here... Cheer from singapore.