Cycling into Slowdown

Published on
March 20th, 2019
32 minutes

Cycling into Slowdown

The Expert View ·
Featuring Lakshman Achuthan

Published on: March 20th, 2019 • Duration: 32 minutes

Lakshman Achuthan of ECRI returns to Real Vision following his April 2018 appearance, where he successfully predicted a slowdown in US growth. Achuthan looks ahead with his new forecast to analyze whether the global growth slowdown will continue, unpacking economic cycles in Asia, Europe, and the potential disconnect between economic cycles and financial markets. Filmed on March 13, 2019 in New York.


  • OC
    Otto C.
    8 April 2019 @ 17:52
    What;s wrong with the audio?
  • GG
    Gary G.
    28 March 2019 @ 19:23
  • AR
    Abishek R.
    24 March 2019 @ 07:08
    Good job Lakshman. Just completed Ray Dalio's magnum opus - Big Debt Crisis and found this interview nicely complimenting my framework of where we are in the multiple cycles. Everything is cyclic..right from daily price action on a 15min chart, to growth cycles, to business cycles, to secular cycles, and for those with stomach for real enquiry - the Yugas which are 432,000 year cycles! ( Regarding India, I think he is spot on. Considering the very low base its growing from, on the ground in India, I can see pure Alpha at every street corner. But as some keen observers will note, India isn't anywhere near a market economy yet and still indulges in suicidal socialistic tendencies, that the market must severely train the Indian Govt to strictly adhere to a competitive capitalistic rules.
  • FG
    Flavio G.
    23 March 2019 @ 17:21
    Don't know exactly why this guy reminds me of Jeff Goldblum. Guy is terrific BTW. Good nareative and exposure of ideas.
  • JH
    Jesse H.
    23 March 2019 @ 00:03
    This was excellent. Please have him back more frequently.
  • AA
    Alberto A.
    22 March 2019 @ 18:05
    I've been following ECRI for years, and I have yet to see anyone come even close to the quality and usefulness of their work when it comes to understanding the different cyclical macro trends. Great interview. Very clear and educational.
  • SS
    Shanthi S.
    21 March 2019 @ 22:29
    This was fantastic. Thanks to all.
  • SH
    Simon H.
    21 March 2019 @ 09:05
    Never knew Jeff Goldblum lost all his hair and moved into macro economics.
    • SS
      Shanthi S.
      21 March 2019 @ 22:28
      Can’t see it.
  • CF
    Cause F.
    21 March 2019 @ 06:41
    A question for Mr Achutan re India. Do his indicators include a measure of credit/liquidity situation in addition to the typical growth numbers? Asking because, since IL&FS crisis in end-Sept, credit markets are still looking troubled. Please see link;
  • TJ
    Terry J.
    20 March 2019 @ 13:50
    I had been wondering when RV would have Lakshman on again. Very timely to listen to his thoughts on the US and global cycles at this juncture. RV has spoilt us with the insights of some amazingly successful investors and informative analysts over the years and for my money Lakshman is right up there with the best in terms of helping understand where the markets might go next. It was interesting to hear his thoughts on India being the one major economy that might buck the slowdown trend, effectively reiterating the long term opportunities in this market espoused by both Raoul and Kiril. I'd love to get some more India specific content in the near future. Thanks again RV for all the invaluable videos.
    • PP
      Patrick P.
      21 March 2019 @ 03:13
      If you remember last year RV did a video on India, the key take away, India was in the demographic sweet spot for growth.
  • RD
    Rahul D.
    21 March 2019 @ 00:41
    Outstanding objective analysis!
  • RM
    Ryan M.
    20 March 2019 @ 23:54
    Question about low inflation? I know you've spoken before about productivity growth in the 90's, but do you think there's any chance we are similarly underestimating productivity growth now? Obviously in the 90's they kept moving the goal posts for NAIRU, but eventually realized that it was productivity. Unit labor costs are continuing to rise, but without prices rising. Are profit margins declines making up for that difference? Also as a student of NBER's Geoffrey Moore, do you think identifying and dating previous business cycles helps or hurts the forecasting of future cycles? I'm reading his as well as Zarnowitz's books and they seem more identifying based than predicting. Is that the skill it takes to predict? Is that skill transferable to accurate predicting? Probably a silly question, but thought I'd ask. Thanks for the video, it was fantastic as always! Brilliant work you do.
  • CB
    C B.
    20 March 2019 @ 22:08
    Lakshman is a great communicator. I wonder if he gives any consideration to complexity theory. I've always felt that recessions are in part caused by the feedback loop of, declining spending thereby declining incomes, and then declines in spending again.
  • gg
    georgy g.
    20 March 2019 @ 10:32
    Great stuff. Would love more quantification on positive shock optionality, such as having a good trade deal, but great stuff
    • CB
      C B.
      20 March 2019 @ 22:03
      Trade Deal is right about to happen!
  • GB
    Gary B.
    20 March 2019 @ 21:30
    Terrific. Four recessions in Japan since GFC in US, that sir could be very informative for the US in the years ahead. Thanks RV for the guest
  • DR
    David R.
    20 March 2019 @ 18:30
    The pain of being long in the weak US Dollar is just getting worse! DXY is almost 900 pips below its last high 26 months ago, and USD is being crushed by some EM currencies and others - now near multi-year highs against USD. Even the troubled Euro is trading at the levels it was back in October. And of course the precious metals are in breakout. In a nutshell, the false narrative of a "strong dollar" has been revealed as naked, as the tide has gone out exposing the dollar as a genuinely weak currency headed lower.
  • SR
    20 March 2019 @ 11:25
    discounting central banks is useless;
    • DS
      David S.
      20 March 2019 @ 17:52
      Lowering cb interest rates from the 2% range does not markedly affect the real economy. The Fed is announcing today, I hope they just stay steady. DLS
  • DD
    David D.
    20 March 2019 @ 17:35
    Nailed it
  • TY
    Tyler Y.
    20 March 2019 @ 16:59
    Frameworks! That's a thing I've long appreciated about RV is providing frameworks that support the views given, not just the views. This is excellent. Lakshman has come under heat for sticking to his models, but this does a great job at showing how he views when economies are more sensitive to a shock that can lead to opportunities for investors, and when investors should favor cycle- or trend-continuation.
  • NH
    Neil H.
    20 March 2019 @ 14:51
    Certainly makes the case for lower long term yields
  • MF
    Michael F.
    20 March 2019 @ 14:34
    Excellent contribution from Lakshman. Would love to see more of such in-depth economic discussions at RealVision. Not that there aren't any, but recently it has been tilted a bit too much towards short-term trading calls in my view.
  • GH
    Gary H.
    20 March 2019 @ 12:52
    Excellent content. Love the psychedelic purple power look. Thanks RV
  • Nv
    Nick v.
    20 March 2019 @ 11:20
    Great interview. When will someone quantify Facebook, Instagram , Netflix effect on productivity. My guess it is substantial.