Has Everything Changed? with Raoul Pal

Published on
September 21st, 2020
Duration
42 minutes


Has Everything Changed? with Raoul Pal

The Expert View ·
Featuring Raoul Pal

Published on: September 21st, 2020 • Duration: 42 minutes

Real Vision CEO and co-founder, Raoul Pal, kicks off an exciting two weeks of content by explaining why we are endeavoring to answer the ultimate question, "has everything changed?" As well, Pal switches hats into his role as head of GMI to update viewers on his "unfolding" thesis and his own view on the question, "has everything changed?" He argues that the insolvency phase is being signaled by banks, BBB equities, and bond yields while tech stocks are stubbornly stuck in the hope phase, which has morphed into a dangerous speculation phase. He also runs through his outlook for the roster of major global asset classes and explains why he thinks Bitcoin is "the world’s best trade." Filmed on September 17, 2020.

Comments

Transcript

  • EC
    Earl C.
    29 September 2020 @ 19:43
    Good job Raoul. My remarks deal w/you mentioning The New Deal into WWII. I hope they can be used to help us navigate these markets & not seen as my useless wild theories. 1) The ND structurally prepared US to enter WWII both industrially, unmatched by any other country. The ND dams built allowed Boeing & other air craft builders the electricity needed for US to dominate the skies in WWII. The nuclear bomb was designed beside a ND dam in Oak Ridge Ten. ND trained welders & fitters carpenters etc. bulked up US Navy pre-war. The CC camps fed hungry men & taught them skills that would prove invaluable for future military service. The social gains won gave workers the desire to defend their gains against a foreign enemy thousands of miles away knowing folks back home were not being thrown out of homes & SS checks helped their elderly parents. With out the ND & had the Henry Ford's won out politically might the US supplied the Axis if not even fought with them? Currently US infrastructure is in shambles compared to China's new & modern ports, rail & transport system. Do US workers feel motivated to defend a gov't that puts the interest of a tiny few & let the rest deteriorate @ a faster clip every month that goes by? Whose army would be the most motivated in such a god awful bloodbath? I ask because it could matter a lot. If this seem political I don't think this next election matters 1 iota about what lays ahead. This cake has been baking for decades w/both parties @ the controls.
  • PR
    Paul R.
    23 September 2020 @ 07:18
    Somebody explain to me WHY if Bitcoin and or others start to gain real traction - and all the CB's are trying to push neg rates and other inflationary tools. That the large Governments eg. USA. Euro Area etc cannot just ban bitcoin transactions, exchanges etc in their jurisdiction. Period. They will come up with some BS argument to do so - after a narrative period, terrorist funding, tax avoidance, damaging the real economy, etc etc . And that's it game over. If you can't "spend" it then what value will people put on it as a currency and as an investment? If "they" can confiscate physical private gold then why do you think they can't throw a switch?
    • MC
      Matthew C.
      23 September 2020 @ 08:55
      Asked and answered many times in the Bitcoin community over the last 11 years. This article is a good start: https://medium.com/ensourceable/the-battle-for-bitcoin-can-government-shut-down-cryptocurrency-d1b233471c32 There are also more informed opinions on Bitcoin Twitter about the subject like people like PlanB, Preston Pysh and others.
    • ES
      Evan S.
      23 September 2020 @ 19:38
      Game Theory. If the US tries to ban it (you can't actually ban bitcoin its decentralized its like trying to ban the internet) then these exchanges will move to other parts of the world where it's not banned, and that country will be the ones who benefit. Imagine if the US tried to ban the internet in the 90s and 2000s and now imagine how far behind we would be as a result. Same game theory applies to bitcoin. The US want innovation to stay on its own shores, and this innovation is happening regardless if one or two countries "ban" it. I'm not saying they won't put up a fight, but bitcoin is too small for them to really care right now. And hopefully by the time they do try and fight it bitcoin will have too much support in elected officials, lobbyists, etc.
    • PR
      Paul R.
      24 September 2020 @ 06:52
      I get all of this. Ban the internet - China does a fair job of controlling it! I am NOT saying bitcoin will disappear but I am saying that it MAY be driven "offshore" from all the major commercial arenas. It may not become MAINSTREAM as a CURRENCY because of that. Sure you may be able to buy a house in Little Caymen or wherever but not a McDonalds in LA. I just have stopped being surprised at what governments are prepared to do to protect their vested interest when they feel threatened - and Bitcoin IS a threat to their perceived order. I don't want people to think I'm trolling so I will stop here as I know most people think my take on this is simplistic and straight wrong. Thank you for your replies.
    • BS
      Benjamin S.
      28 September 2020 @ 00:52
      Same question here. I read the Medium article referenced by Matthew, but that deals only with crypto as a network. Sure, Bitcoin can survive as a de-centralised system, but how does that help if you can't exchange it for fiat currency. Until governments agree to make crypto legal tender, that's a problem. What am I missing?
    • LK
      Lauri K.
      29 September 2020 @ 09:31
      It kind of requires a change in fundamental laws or the landscape to be able to ban voluntary transactions. Legally banning only Bitcoin is not so easy and let's say they ban bitcoin, why not just fork the chain to "Bittcoin" and use that?That's what's going on with drugs and the government's around the world are losing. Only dictatorships can effectively force a ban on something morally right.
  • JB
    Jenny B.
    27 September 2020 @ 22:21
    What a great service this is! Baby boomers needing to be careful is worth the subscription price in this interview alone.
  • LA
    Lawrence A.
    21 September 2020 @ 17:40
    Raoul, Loved this as always, as a standard member I love these from time to time. I am a younger guy (31) and am also investing heavily into crypto for my future. I just have a word of warning from some of the more seasoned folk here if they are thinking of investing in crypto vs. gold. Crypto (bitcoin included) are computer networks, and as they get bigger they get more attention from hackers. If you are thinking of getting in please, please educate yourselves about storing your coins offline and really embodying the ideology of "be your own bank". Too often everyone just leaves things in exchanges and things can end VERY badly. Regulations change and exchanges close (this has happened to the US with many exchanges). Hackers can bring down exchanges entirely (has happened shortly after the peak of every crypto cycle). In fact, exchanges being hacked are one of the markers of bear markets in crypto in my opinion. A practical analogy is windows vs. macintosh. 15 years ago, hackers didn't even bother with mac because everyone was still on PC. As mac usage increased, so did the exploitations and attacks. This is why I sometimes have issues with people comparing bitcoin to gold. Gold is a different asset in many ways. If your government and infrastructure really fall apart and you need money and the internet is out, bitcoin won't do anything for you. Maybe in the future we can, but not right now. So just keep these things in mind. I've lost crypto when Cryptopia got hacked (wasn't much) but it was a hard lesson for me that these exchanges are not held to the same standards as many established banks, and they won't help you if you lose your money. Just the way it is right now.
    • WM
      Will M.
      21 September 2020 @ 18:27
      Good post Lawrence, but just the once would have sufficed.... :)
    • LA
      Lawrence A.
      21 September 2020 @ 19:50
      Yea I have no idea how that happened lol. Wasn't intentional :((
    • BM
      Brook M.
      22 September 2020 @ 01:30
      Lawrence, As a recent first time buyer of Bitcoin (and someone in my late 60s) I can tell you that the temptation to leave your coin on an exchange exists. A majority of my generation doesn't enjoy the hassle of buying a cold storage wallet even though the cost is minimal. Moving the bitcoin from the exchange to your hard wallet is nerve wracking for those of us who are not so comfortable with tech. I console myself with the thought that when someone comes up with a method for doing this easily the price of bitcoin should double for that reason alone ;-) I just want to say that if I could do it almost anyone can.
    • SW
      Stephen W.
      22 September 2020 @ 11:48
      absolutely the major strength in bitcoin is self-sovereignty, don't buy half the idea.
    • JA
      John A.
      22 September 2020 @ 17:05
      This is where banks will be able to add value in the future I think. Ultimately, the reason why we use fiat in trade instead of hard money is precisely because we don't want to be our own custodian. People are lazy, they want security without responsibility. I think it is the one area the existing system has an advantage. We will need blockchain tech that allows an additional layer on top of it in order to provide the average user the ability to use a custodian if they so choose with some ability to prevent the type of theft and fraud that exists now. I'm sure someone is already looking at this somewhere. I think this is how governments and central banks find a way to approach this new ecosystem.
    • BS
      Benjamin S.
      27 September 2020 @ 07:46
      I'm similarly skeptical of exchanges' ability to protect clients' crypto. What do you think about a roll-your-own solution using multiple copies of USB drives in different locations? I had a look into this and concluded it was fairly easy to make the USB drives bootable and install Electrum on them.
  • PD
    Peter D.
    23 September 2020 @ 01:12
    "The New Deal did a lot of good .... but there was a major war after that, of course." Raoul Paul. "When all else fails, they take you to war." Gerald Celente. ****** In 24 - 36 months, we will know who is correct.....
    • LS
      Lemony S.
      26 September 2020 @ 22:48
      That's a great find from Celente, Peter ... I chuckled so as not to cry.
  • JT
    Jayne T.
    24 September 2020 @ 23:38
    What will change? One, the residential real estate frenzy in many parts of the country. When banks are allowed to foreclose, this will be the beginning of the end of the real estate bubble (along with the realization that the government cannot keep giving people checks to stay unemployed). Two, oil prices will have a resurgence, not from demand, but because supply (refining capacity) is dwindling quickly and so many products are petrol based. Three, taxes—they have to go up in every facet to pay for our ever increasing bills. All in all, not a great outlook. Be thankful for what you have.
    • LS
      Lemony S.
      26 September 2020 @ 22:46
      Totally agree. Good analysis.
  • LS
    Lemony S.
    26 September 2020 @ 22:45
    I'm going back on all these guys right now that are smart and that by and large I agree with ... but they do have many commonalities if not totally wrong (in which case they wouldn't be headliners): The biggest is they were right on something. It's like Pal's big trade, he and the Peter Schiff's of the world hit it big and were on TV, etc, but it's been more than 10 for Peter and more than 7 for Raoul that the big calamity hasn't occurred. And while I agree that it will (Pal probably made more money than Schiff over this time, to be fair, AND I agree with RP on BTC) ... anyone can predict that things will change for the worse in these conditions. Sheesh, every savvy person following RV knows this. I fear that a war will break out and they will all say they were "right about XYZ" when in reality, they are just hitting the cycle that is clearly here. Has anyone else thought as much? It's the idea that is somewhat tired but true = early actually is functionally wrong a lot of times.
  • DS
    David S.
    26 September 2020 @ 21:26
    RP always makes compelling arguments. Just one point to consider: if the broadening top, that he mentions, plays out, the implied target on the S&P is around 670! (Coincidentally, that's the same low hit in the Mar 2009 GFC.)
  • Sv
    Sid v.
    25 September 2020 @ 19:27
    thank you. I am sticking with gold over bit coin for now. i believe that bitcoin carries a sovereign risk. Nations want to control their own money.
  • SC
    Salvador C.
    25 September 2020 @ 01:42
    hello - where can I reference/find the Michael Saylor interview that Raoul mentions in this interview? thanks,
    • LM
      Laura M.
      25 September 2020 @ 10:21
      Here you go... https://www.realvision.com/shows/the-interview-crypto/videos/the-deliberate-corporate-strategy-to-adopt-the-bitcoin-standard
  • BS
    Benjamin S.
    24 September 2020 @ 07:31
    Must watch video! Probably one of the most informative videos your ever watch for your future
  • BB
    Bob B.
    22 September 2020 @ 02:15
    Very well presented thesis. First impression - Raoul's Fourth Turning My problem with Gold and Bitcoin thesis for protection lies in few people talking about risk factors - especially Bitcoin. Gold's are more visible due to its millenniums of use. Bitcoin has little history and faces many poorly understood (and some unknown) risk factors such as Internet/Networks, electrical grids, future software hacks/ quantum computing, sovereign interventions, physical threats,... There are no easy solutions in our complex and complicate world. Think for yourself!
    • SW
      Stephen W.
      22 September 2020 @ 11:43
      I would advise taking a proper look at each of the risks you have outlined, I think you will find they are less of a threat than first envisaged
    • BB
      Bob B.
      24 September 2020 @ 03:09
      Stephen W. Not sure what you mean given no specifics but here a some quick looks: - Internet is not ubiquitously available/reliable. There are daily interruptions in many last mile nodes. Many devices (phones/computers) struggle at moments. Infamous "poor internet connection". While not a show stopper underlying technology remains frustrating for many. Yes it's getting better but cash and credit card payment systems have workarounds hiding network issues. - Electrical grid e.g. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8687829/National-Grid-boss-warns-Britain-risks-power-blackouts-decaying-electricity-network.html California has rolling black/brown outs. Cash still worked! https://www.survivopedia.com/the-power-grid-could-collapse/ - Hacks - as cryptos become more complex vulnerabilities will be spotted. - Quantum computing https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post-quantum_cryptography The implication is that moving to quantum cryptography in the future may require quantum processing to transact - a serious infrastructure/implementation issue. - Sovereign interventions - China has a closed capital account which would be threatened by a large increase in crypto usage. Current China operates huge mining operations that bring in Bitcoin that is turned into Yuan. There are growing risks over time from China. - Imagine a criminal blackmails you for your Bitcoin - likely has already happened but will grow with Bitcoin capex increase. Right now there are controls and tracing with fiat currencies and banking intermediaries. Will crypto world move to address yes but that will take much more innovation. What will draw funding to solve threats as opposed to new benefits/opportunities? History suggests some solutions will be included with innovation but not a comprehensive result.
  • SS
    Shane S.
    23 September 2020 @ 22:08
    Thank you Raoul, I joined Real Vision via the $1 trial after watching RV on YouTube. I will be continuing my membership to gain more insights from the RV team.
  • AW
    Abigail W.
    23 September 2020 @ 12:08
    I would really love to hear Julien's update on his macro view. He is my go-to guy.
    • MW
      Max W. | Real Vision
      23 September 2020 @ 17:52
      Coming next Monday.
  • RJ
    Raoul J.
    22 September 2020 @ 11:50
    How about his USD bull view since march?
    • RJ
      Raoul J.
      22 September 2020 @ 12:20
      Feels like he has lost it
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      22 September 2020 @ 14:12
      Read the comments below. Im still in the trade.
    • RG
      Ryan G.
      22 September 2020 @ 14:12
      I think he believes the US dollar will strengthen if we go through another deflationary event like March.
    • SB
      Stewart B.
      23 September 2020 @ 17:43
      In watching Powell's press conference, he looked visibly shaken, and really was not offering anything new. On top of that, the Euro looks relatively strong based on the past half decade. I would not be surprised if Raoul and Brent turn out to be correct with his strong dollar thesis, and we see pullbacks in precious metals, Euro, etc as liquidity flows back to the USD.
  • SB
    Stewart B.
    23 September 2020 @ 17:39
    Well done Raoul. This is probably your most insightful discussion yet. Timely. Only think I would add, is that insolvency can be skirted for state-privileged corporate by issuing more equity. This may be issuing more equity to the market, or to the state. No doubt, we have moved into an era where the government and central bank will do anything to make sure it's favourite corporates don't go bust.
  • JP
    Johan P.
    23 September 2020 @ 06:32
    Just want to say thank you, Raoul. Always feel very grateful when you share your knowledge like this.
  • NA
    Nicolas A.
    23 September 2020 @ 05:24
    Amazing, agree with everything except the equities call, not a typical macro forte. Funnily enough my question would have been fine, if you believe tech and the laggards will converge would you buy the laggards? But then in the end you answered my question: No, you are short the laggards! Your entire thesis confirms that tech outperformance will continue. When physical shops close and other traditional businesses start losing some sales, you know who picks up the slack? Tech. You can trim Nasdaq positions here, sure, but again, this is a macro trader perspective and you make two assumptions. 1) Your time frame is short, institutional investors and the asset allocators that matter globally think over 5-10 year periods. Would they prefer to own some banks and GE in 10 years time or tech? Tech. 2) Other than global macro hedge funds and individuals in their own portfolios, nobody really has the option to own no equities. So the only question is, what would you rather own, rich but growing tech or cheap but dying old economy? Tech. Look at Japan, you can buy single digit P/E stocks all day long, value investors there have been crying for years when they realise that a 6 P/E for a fantastic net cash business can go to 5, to 4, to 2. Those stocks are toast. Will the Nasdaq double again soon? Probably not. Would I rather own Nasdaq than the value or bank or Russell 2000 index? All day long, all day long. Outperformance is not going anywhere, if stocks fall the laggards will fall more. COVID related shut downs are great for tech. Time is on the side of tech. Even de-globalisation is on the side of tech. Rates going to zero and negative are also favourable for tech. And btw, there is cash on the sidelines, no institutional investor I know is overweight, overextended or go forbid levered. Equity allocations still have massive room to rise, especially as sovereign bond portfolios will be phased out as they yield nothing and the only buyer will be the CBs. There will be one last buy the dip, better fasten your seatbelt.
  • AH
    Alexandra H.
    23 September 2020 @ 04:19
    Raoul - clear, concise, well thought-out and articulated. The charts really add power to your argument. Thank you so much. I do have a question about gold. I am heavily invested in gold mining stocks, but given your final chart that showed the paths of the 1929-30 and 2001-2002 rallies against the path of 2020, how do you feel about holding gold mining stocks now, assuming I am talking about ones with little or no debt, great people, or, if smaller/juniors, with great resources, great optionality and solid financing, and of course, great people? At the end of the day, gold stocks are stocks too, and always seem to sell off during market drops, and I'm not sure how they would perform in a possibly 1-3 years long downtrend. I would love to hear your thoughts on this. Thanks! And keep up the terrific work.
  • LP
    Leonard P.
    22 September 2020 @ 00:45
    Thanks for the update, greatly appreciated! Curious if there will be any cannabis content in the near future? On Oct. 01, 2019 Shayne Laidlaw gave a reasonably accurate prediction that winter was coming for the cannabis industry in 2020. However, he did remain constructive long term after the weak hands were eventually shaken out. I'd love to get an update from him and/or someone currently at Hedgeye that was familiar/shared his thesis in 2019.
    • PB
      PHILLIP B.
      22 September 2020 @ 04:34
      Still seems early to get into cannabis. Seems like it needs more time. The charts don't look good. But, I agree that it would be good to content on this as it could be a good opportunity. Maybe later in this year would be better for this content. It's like energy. Too early.
    • AK
      Arthur K.
      22 September 2020 @ 19:58
      I am a Hedgeye subscriber. SL moved on. Howard Penney and Daniel Biolsi now cover that area. They just did a free access call you should be able to access.
  • MT
    Markos T.
    22 September 2020 @ 17:52
    Raoul - I think you articulated your arguments brilliantly, and I agree. The only spanner in the works is your argument that banks are not lending vs Russell Napier's observations in the past month or so. Napier is making a convincing point that gov credit guarantees are a game changer and already have a good uptake in Europe. I would argue that this ignores human psychology: when uncertainty increases rapidly you won't borrow, you will really hunker down. Furthermore in the current environment borrowing probably goes for working capital requirements at best, and plugging black holes (and revelations :D) at worse, so no real marginal productivity of debt there. I would further argue that the deflationary sink hole is so big that gov credit guarantees will have no effect, akin to trying to nuke the asteroid in Independence Day. If anything, financing these guarantees by the sovs will accelerate a spiralling crowding out effect on the weaker sovs. But I still cant quite get my head around this, and I am sure I am missing quite a bit in my thinking. Any insights on how you are viewing this?
  • LB
    Lukas B.
    21 September 2020 @ 21:40
    I roared with laughter at "I'm not interested in your shit fight..." Thanks, Raoul, I needed a good laugh today.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      21 September 2020 @ 23:59
      :)
    • JA
      John A.
      22 September 2020 @ 16:54
      "I'm not interested in your shit fight..." Sounds like some of my late April trades lol.
  • OM
    Owen M.
    21 September 2020 @ 16:22
    covering some XLF puts today thanks to your thoughts on financials and banks the last few months. thank you Raoul
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      21 September 2020 @ 17:32
      I think they go further so you might want to re-load and lower your delta...
    • OM
      Owen M.
      22 September 2020 @ 16:12
      locked and re-loaded
  • IA
    Ivan A.
    22 September 2020 @ 11:36
    Hi Raoul. I've been dying to ask. Why do you have so many chairs?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      22 September 2020 @ 14:13
      The bar has 6, the kitchen top has 6, the dining table has 12. Its an optical illusion that it all looks like a bar but its an open plan room..and two seating areas - one for guests and one for TV and chilling.
  • JS
    John S.
    22 September 2020 @ 05:34
    A tour de force of rational thought expressed in a most concise manner. Actionable, educational, and entertaining, Raoul's talk explains market actions with a precision unavailable elsewhere. It is a special gift to communicate complex topics with a minimum of jargon and a maximum of understanding.
    • DT
      David T.
      22 September 2020 @ 14:00
      I agree completely. Thanks Raoul. I think you're going to be exactly right.
  • DD
    David D.
    21 September 2020 @ 14:30
    Fantastic education! Thoughts on Silver?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      21 September 2020 @ 15:31
      I closed out a while ago.
    • MW
      Marcus W.
      22 September 2020 @ 13:26
      Nice I closed out about 3 weeks ago. $28 good enough run on this fake re-inflation play like 08.
  • SW
    Stephen W.
    22 September 2020 @ 11:42
    Don't really understand why baby-boomers can't invest in bitcoin and should make-do with what they have? not that I am one, just seems strange given the time-frame for major increases in bitcoin is probably around 3 years
    • SH
      Sahil H.
      22 September 2020 @ 12:47
      I think he is referring to it from the perspective of risk to reward. if BTC blows up and you're younger you can afford to take the hit because you have time to build wealth again. Whereas, if you're close to retirement then you likely won't have the time to recover from BTC blowing up because you'll need the money sooner
  • NT
    Nicholas T.
    22 September 2020 @ 10:13
    Thank you for such a grand and coherent overview of the current situation going forward Raoul! Unless I've missed it, would be great to get some discussion on central banks and what policy choices are available that may potentially impact Bitcoin share price. The Bitcoin evangelists I've seen so far, seem to only use the underlying technology as the reason for going long. We need to look at what Bitcoin 2.0 from a market perspective might look like in context of our evolving global situation. Global government financial institutions in coordinated monetary, and soon to be fiscal policies, while launching digital currencies, will want to make sure bitcoin is not some uncontrolled and unlimited impact variable.
  • JS
    Jon S.
    22 September 2020 @ 05:20
    Many thanks Raoul. As a an idea, maybe you could be in the expert view every 6 months for essential members and every 4 months for plus members. I hope this idea is regarded as a good idea. I do not know other members, but the first and initial reason for me to subscribe to RV was your unfolding video. Take care and thank you for sharing your thoughts with us.
    • VS
      Vafa S.
      22 September 2020 @ 06:39
      Certainly agree. The way Raoul communicates is "Complexity resolved". A major asset.
  • SS
    Stefano S.
    22 September 2020 @ 04:13
    Enjoyed your thesis. thanks, nice video. Look fwd to seeing the next.
  • TM
    Tyler M.
    22 September 2020 @ 03:49
    Thank you. Really helpful and sobering. I appreciate you sharing your specific trade ideas and some of the positions you hold.
  • JN
    Jeffrey N.
    22 September 2020 @ 03:49
    You mentioned your long-standing GMI trade recommendation of long gold versus a basket of currencies. Is there an easy way to make this trade for a retail account? I understand it could be constructed roughly using FX trades or currency futures versus gold (and I assume it is available to institutions from investment banks too). It would be great if there was a fund or ETF that could capture that relationship. I assume the answer is no, but I thought I would ask. Thanks.
  • jh
    jason h.
    22 September 2020 @ 03:49
    As a counterpoint to this articulate deflationary narrative I wonder what fellow viewers thought of Jullietes Expert View on sept 15? She presents latest PMI and ISM charts that show the manufacturing sector is bullish and that in her words reflation is the name of the game and volatility should be looked at as opportunity to invest outside of tech as the market develops more breadth.
  • AT
    Ashley T.
    21 September 2020 @ 22:33
    Agree with the majority of aspects...especially the insolvency...its certainly coming...I've been in crypto a few years, 10x'd the 2017 bubble, but held it all the way back down..and now up again...It was long and painful,and I learned a lot...I'm at a healthy profit and more than doubled my value since the March crash after buying that dip and averaging in over the last year... Heres my issue though...If we have another crash, or a long bleed down, surely everything will come down with it along with gold and crypto...I don't want to sell because I think BTC will be huge and totally believe in it, but I don't like the idea of holding through another March crash or a 2018 style bear market...I've waited a long time to come back out on top again, and although I'm also cash ready to buy dips, would love to be able to take profits now and buy back even more when/if that comes...what would you do Raoul?? Likelihood of a heavy drop and swift-ish crypto recovery?? Or just prepare for some pain, take the hit and buy the dip, and wait it out again? Feels like the crazy asset inflation we've seen these last few months, of which it can be argued that Bitcoin and crypto was a part of, isn't guaranteed with another stimulus and huge injection... if the stocks come down to earth to fit with the real economy, and as we're starting to see the steam run out...it leads me to believe that crypto will come down with it also... How do I both protect myself and profit from a potential opportunity? Comments appreciated)
    • DT
      David T.
      21 September 2020 @ 23:43
      Till people don't price houses and cars in BTC, its just a digital tulip.
    • PP
      Patrick P.
      22 September 2020 @ 03:42
      Ashley .. get out while you can .. BTC is a pile of hope and hype.....Keep in mind that you live in a world where the rich and powerful make the rules... They only allow you to play if they control the game totally. BTC does not fit that scenario. Like all schemes the last guy is holding the bag. (and it's empty)
  • BR
    Brian R.
    21 September 2020 @ 18:20
    Raoul, with insolvency, won't people be less likely to put money into risky assets like Bitcoin? I haven't heard much that counter the lots of very valid pro Bitcoin arguments. Not being funny just asking because I am only considering buying Bitcoin because of what I have heard on RV.
    • HB
      Herman B.
      22 September 2020 @ 01:11
      Brian, my understanding is that, everybody is on the V shaped recovery narrative. Hence the current financial assets recovery. Central bankers (Europe, US, Canada, UK, and others) bought( and selling) this narrative. Meanwhile, on the main streets, the talk is about insolvency(Revenue issues). Think about all the small businesses down the streets that are operating at, say 50% capacity at best(Restaurants, airlines Corps, cruise Co's, small to medium boutiques, etc....) while still on the hook to contractual obligations dated back to pre-covit 19. Therefore the insolvency reality. So Wall street Vs Main streets narratives. Both sides cannot be right at the same time. The odds are that main street is right. If this thesis materialises, central bankers will do what they always do best: Throw as much money as they can to the thing. MMT, Infrastructure projects, etc.... Hence commodities, base and precious metals, bitcoins, etc... In other words, insolvency will bring dis-inflation, then inflation related assets will catch tail winds. This is my humble understanding.
    • BR
      Brian R.
      22 September 2020 @ 03:36
      couldn't agree more Herman with that summary, however, talking of equities topping like previous market tops doesn't fit that narrative and then it's unclear to me how Bitcoin could therefore be different in an insolvency phase. ie equities don't reach their peak for quite some time then why should Bitcoin? the message I am getting from the insolvency phase is markets potentially topping
  • FR
    FLAVIO R.
    22 September 2020 @ 02:59
    Today i sold 50% of my equities. Last week purchased a little bit of NDX crash put strike 8000 expire May 21. Long Gold and BTC. Proper video Raoul, thanks and best regards from Brazil.
  • GD
    Gabriel D.
    21 September 2020 @ 23:55
    better question - has the position of the cue ball on the pool table behind you changed?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      22 September 2020 @ 01:38
      You haven't been paying attention to the Daily Briefings on Fridays... also, there is a spot on the table to place to cue ball so it always goes there !
    • LF
      Lisa F.
      22 September 2020 @ 02:37
      you need a foosball table
  • SS
    S S.
    22 September 2020 @ 00:26
    Bitcoin has not proved itself in a bear market yet. It is only 10 years old. Until it does I am skeptical that a equity market crash and or a dollar rally doesn't take bitcoin down
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      22 September 2020 @ 01:37
      We all are. Lets see...
  • MA
    Martin A.
    22 September 2020 @ 01:15
    Hi Raoul, a techie question, I’ve noticed the big improvement in your video camera. What are you using? Cheers, Martin.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      22 September 2020 @ 01:37
      I got a Mac upgrade to top of the range and using some special dish, much better broad band (20meg uploads)
  • sc
    sung c.
    22 September 2020 @ 01:19
    I found myself agreeing with everything Raoul said on this video. One thing I noticed, which was not cited by Raoul, was that S&P and Nasdaq, never had a period of six straight months of gains, only five straight months. Last time it had five straight months of gains was just lead up to tech bubble, and we saw it again from April thru August of this year. This, along with Sept. being a volatile month is why I sold all my equity positions on Sep. 02,, (except for gold and silver positions such as GLD, GDX, SLV, and other miners), and of course my BTC which I'll hold until end of 2022 when we'll probably see the next cycle correction start. At this time, I don't see a reason to tiptoe back into equities until, 1) second stimulus passed, 2) vaccine is announced, or S&P reaches 3,000 level, (which may present a short term bounce unless 1) and/or 2) transpire turning the bounce into a recovery. If neither 1) or 2) transpire, look out below; it's going to be a bumpy ride down folks.
  • SS
    Steven S.
    22 September 2020 @ 01:06
    Excellent video. I thoroughly enjoyed your views and rationale behind them, Raoul. With regard to the BTC Saylor argument, I'm still confused. If I followed it correctly, I find two areas of the argument enigmatic: 1) The argument that BTC is the only asset with properties of fixed supply seems spurious. Farmland, for example, has almost an axiomatic decreasing supply, income generation that associated with it typically far exceeding property taxes, a long history of laws protecting ownership in most countries, and is, of course, coupled with the most basic of needs--food production. I suppose one could argue about marginally increasing productivity per acre, but there is an undeniable cap on that as well as there is only so much incident sunlight per acre. Similarly, Rembrandts aren't increasing in supply. And 2) who invests with a 100 or 200-year time horizon? I'm no economist/financial expert, but relying on the asymptotic behavior of asset pricing as a guiding principle seems, at best, to be misguided. In my admittedly limited experience, it would seem that harnessing the dynamics over much shorter time periods seems much more relevant to wealth preservation, for it is the flow of demand in and out of asset classes that appears to both generate and preserve wealth. The second moment dynamics (i.e., volatility) hold considerable promise to a savvy investor.
  • RS
    Ravinder S.
    21 September 2020 @ 10:52
    Thanks Raoul! I'm weighting more of my investments into BTC, just makes logical sense now.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      21 September 2020 @ 10:57
      Just average in slowly..
    • KL
      Kerrie L.
      22 September 2020 @ 00:22
      How slowly? I’m looking at putting BTC into a retirement account through Choice by Kingdom Trust. The interview with Saylor was very convincing that BTC is the only viable trade for wealth preservation.
  • SB
    Stephen B.
    21 September 2020 @ 21:59
    In one of these videos, one day, it would be very helpful to discuss utility stocks (which i have in my portfolio) and/or REIT's. On paper, they should be doing well, with (almost) guaranteed income + guaranteed dividends (~ 5-6%) + falling financing expenses + ability to service their debt obligations + do well in a deflationary environment. Despite those merits, they have been rather flat. If you are going to have a portion of your portfolio in equities, shouldn't a portion be in utilities?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      21 September 2020 @ 23:58
      I literally know nothing about them ....
  • SS
    S S.
    21 September 2020 @ 22:51
    @Raoul How can you be Long Dollars and Long Bitcoin? How can Bitcoin run up significantly to ATH and beyond and Dollar go up? When has that ever happened before? I've heard you say that you think the correlations change over time. But why? Nothing from the past on BTC suggests it can hit ATH when DXY is 100 and beyond. What am I missing?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      21 September 2020 @ 23:58
      A longer time series.
  • OW
    Oliver W.
    21 September 2020 @ 19:55
    Rahul at his best!
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      21 September 2020 @ 20:21
      Raoul.
    • JS
      Jon S.
      21 September 2020 @ 23:28
      Seriously Oliver, his name is spelled in the title of this video. No worries though as I often need to look at the order of those three vowels in a row:)
  • BN
    Barrett N.
    21 September 2020 @ 21:03
    Thanks Raoul. B
  • SM
    Sascha M.
    21 September 2020 @ 21:02
    Raoul thanks for giving us that inside. So many aspects and it is not easy to figure out, where are we in this process of change or should i say decline. Your arguments and your charts are very consistent !
  • JV
    Jay V.
    21 September 2020 @ 21:00
    Raoul, In addition to the many varied interviews with interesting investment related industry folks, this is the sort of macro review that makes the cost of my subscription worthwhile. After the gold price peak in August I lightened significantly my gold miners, because I have been whipsawed in prior similar moments in the past, when a price high in gold has been followed by selling/ profit taking. The market appears to be more liquid now, more interested parties, though still small, the miners have shown price resilience and gone sideways more recently. The suggestion that a market correction shorter term and insolvency concerns would affect the dollar (UP) , thus weakening gold, if temporarily, is apparently unfolding, so thanks. I am also recalling an interesting interview with Lyn Alden on the subject. I hope to return to my full position in gold miners again as the prices fall. If RV could provide continuing coverage of the gold and gold miner space in a macro sense so that I may cross -reference my own thoughts and analysis with others this would be of great value to me and perhaps others. As to the Bitcoin , I have been in since 2017 in a small way, speculated and am happy with the result, been sitting on some since then. I have been awaiting a market ( another) swoon like the one in March to buy BTC at lower prices while averaging drip by drip. I regret not deploying in March in force. What is the market like now compared to then? How likely is it that we might see 6,000- $6,500 on BTC, for instance? If there are knowledgeable managers with understanding of BTC Trading volumes and technicals to illuminate a bit better through the fog, that would also be interesting and appreciated.
  • BK
    Bruce K.
    21 September 2020 @ 17:56
    The money quote, IMHO ... “I don't think necessarily the economy has to get worse, just not recover.” ... BRAVO Raoul, fantastic piece!
    • PB
      PHILLIP B.
      21 September 2020 @ 20:13
      Wow. Right. I have been thinking about "worse" rather than "not recover." Like J. Bianco said, and would likely still agree with, and might still be saying, 85 to 90% recovery is not good enough. That's still down 10 to 15%.
  • ED
    Edward D.
    21 September 2020 @ 20:12
    When you display a chart you need to identify the data each color displays. It is impossible to read the notes in the brief time the chart display.
  • JK
    John K.
    21 September 2020 @ 19:52
    I love the video but I will say the feds have continued their bond purchases. I think what you're seeing in a decrease in their balance sheet is from expiries. They've planned to buy 80 billion in bonds every week and have gotten close almost every time. Few times they only bought 50 billion. Other times they're getting outbid at auction and have to purchase elsewhere https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/domestic-market-operations/monetary-policy-implementation/treasury-securities/treasury-securities-operational-details
  • YK
    Yada K.
    21 September 2020 @ 14:35
    I can't watch this video on my apple laptop.l. Is this the same for anybody else or it it just me?
    • mh
      miles h.
      21 September 2020 @ 15:39
      Just watched on Mac with no issues.
    • BM
      Biju M.
      21 September 2020 @ 16:47
      Try updating. There was a software update for safari
    • NI
      Nate I.
      21 September 2020 @ 18:44
      Worked fine for me on MacOS High Sierra.
  • SA
    Said A.
    21 September 2020 @ 18:39
    its a fiduciary obligation for every money manager to listen to this materclass in walking you through the tail risks ahead.. better safe than sorry.
  • WM
    Will M.
    21 September 2020 @ 18:36
    Yet another superb "fireside chat" Raoul. I am on board with majority of your arguments. Main area of disagreement is commodities as I feel the coming stimulus will be great for some (copper) and others are due to a big run (agricultural) potentially due to weather and lack of loan liquidity for farmers. I am covered well in gold, miners and to a lesser extent silver. I have avoided bitcoin (and similar) to date but have now heard enough to get a whole foot into the water. RV (and you in particular) has done a great job educating subscribers to the opportunity here. I am now looking at for IRA and personal cash positions into Bitcoin/Etherium. to the tune of 2.5% of my wealth, not huge, but a moderate sum indeed. Just love these discussions and note that as of now 8 folks seem to have "fat fingered" the like/dislike button.
  • DS
    David S.
    21 September 2020 @ 18:27
    Great update Raoul!! Step by step, there's no way to avoid the insolvency imo.
  • AM
    Alexander M.
    21 September 2020 @ 18:01
    With so much uncertainty in today's world Raul's take on things is a sobering reminder that we could be late in the game for self preservation. So this video was made on Thursday. With a Friday drop of 244 on the Dow and today's 730 drop as of now, his USD trade today is presently up 1% against GBP and up 0.75% against the Euro. It would seem Gold, Btc, USD and Bonds are the logical places to DCA into for the cash from my newly sold home. I am now a man with a van and a plan. Thank you for all you do Raul and RV. Your insight is invaluable to me and to many thousands of other families and very much appreciated.
  • DB
    Daren B.
    21 September 2020 @ 17:57
    Well done!
  • LA
    Lawrence A.
    21 September 2020 @ 17:40
    Raoul, Loved this as always, as a standard member I love these from time to time. I am a younger guy (31) and am also investing heavily into crypto for my future. I just have a word of warning from some of the more seasoned folk here if they are thinking of investing in crypto vs. gold. Crypto (bitcoin included) are computer networks, and as they get bigger they get more attention from hackers. If you are thinking of getting in please, please educate yourselves about storing your coins offline and really embodying the ideology of "be your own bank". Too often everyone just leaves things in exchanges and things can end VERY badly. Regulations change and exchanges close (this has happened to the US with many exchanges). Hackers can bring down exchanges entirely (has happened shortly after the peak of every crypto cycle). In fact, exchanges being hacked are one of the markers of bear markets in crypto in my opinion. A practical analogy is windows vs. macintosh. 15 years ago, hackers didn't even bother with mac because everyone was still on PC. As mac usage increased, so did the exploitations and attacks. This is why I sometimes have issues with people comparing bitcoin to gold. Gold is a different asset in many ways. If your government and infrastructure really fall apart and you need money and the internet is out, bitcoin won't do anything for you. Maybe in the future we can, but not right now. So just keep these things in mind. I've lost crypto when Cryptopia got hacked (wasn't much) but it was a hard lesson for me that these exchanges are not held to the same standards as many established banks, and they won't help you if you lose your money. Just the way it is right now.
  • LA
    Lawrence A.
    21 September 2020 @ 17:40
    Raoul, Loved this as always, as a standard member I love these from time to time. I am a younger guy (31) and am also investing heavily into crypto for my future. I just have a word of warning from some of the more seasoned folk here if they are thinking of investing in crypto vs. gold. Crypto (bitcoin included) are computer networks, and as they get bigger they get more attention from hackers. If you are thinking of getting in please, please educate yourselves about storing your coins offline and really embodying the ideology of "be your own bank". Too often everyone just leaves things in exchanges and things can end VERY badly. Regulations change and exchanges close (this has happened to the US with many exchanges). Hackers can bring down exchanges entirely (has happened shortly after the peak of every crypto cycle). In fact, exchanges being hacked are one of the markers of bear markets in crypto in my opinion. A practical analogy is windows vs. macintosh. 15 years ago, hackers didn't even bother with mac because everyone was still on PC. As mac usage increased, so did the exploitations and attacks. This is why I sometimes have issues with people comparing bitcoin to gold. Gold is a different asset in many ways. If your government and infrastructure really fall apart and you need money and the internet is out, bitcoin won't do anything for you. Maybe in the future we can, but not right now. So just keep these things in mind. I've lost crypto when Cryptopia got hacked (wasn't much) but it was a hard lesson for me that these exchanges are not held to the same standards as many established banks, and they won't help you if you lose your money. Just the way it is right now.
  • CP
    Carlos P.
    21 September 2020 @ 16:33
    Raoul, I'm really interested in your EURUSD point of view going forward. Has your view on the EUR has changed?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      21 September 2020 @ 16:43
      No, Im still painfully short.
    • CP
      Carlos P.
      21 September 2020 @ 16:55
      Thanks for the reply Raoul. Great interview, keep up the good work!
    • GL
      G L.
      21 September 2020 @ 17:01
      I think EURUSD is breaking down as of today. (Also painfully short)
  • DM
    Don M.
    21 September 2020 @ 16:56
    This is why I paid up for Pro. Great analysis. Very helpful.
  • KJ
    Karl J.
    21 September 2020 @ 16:52
    Hmmm, depressingly, it all fits together and makes total sense :(
  • ZM
    Zoran M.
    21 September 2020 @ 16:21
    Is that a Longines hydro conquest?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      21 September 2020 @ 16:43
      No, Omega SeaMaster.
  • DC
    Darryl C.
    21 September 2020 @ 16:19
    Raul mentioned an interview with Michael Saylor (spelling from transcript). I can't find it using the search function. Anyone have the link?
    • MW
      Max W. | Real Vision
      21 September 2020 @ 16:23
      https://www.realvision.com/shows/the-interview-crypto/videos/the-deliberate-corporate-strategy-to-adopt-the-bitcoin-standard?source_collection=0126e09d28a049d0abb1f9e9d571a1e1
  • MV
    Matt V.
    21 September 2020 @ 15:30
    Raoul when you say 5-10 Trillion in fiscal stimulus, is that just US or total world? Also, what does that fiscal stimulus look like exactly? Thank You
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      21 September 2020 @ 15:30
      US.
  • SW
    Stefan W.
    21 September 2020 @ 15:28
    Maybe gold isn't the safe haven asset it used to be. With all other currencies bearing zero IR, the dynamics have to change.
  • JA
    Joseph A.
    21 September 2020 @ 15:02
    Time horizon and lag. Two things I’ve been bearing in mind the whole time. Lag effect for the insolvency probability is likely to be a drawn out affair. It does take time for all these things to filter through. Humans are good at holding on until the bitter end and remaining in denial before capitulation which is where the bankruptcy analogy comes in - slow first then all at once. Sitting on your hands in these markets and waiting for the opportunities especially in the recent volatility compression where not a lot was going on is hard for a lot of people but it’s exactly those times when you need to be patient and wait for price to signal. Housing market is an interesting one. US prices hitting records in some areas. I think it’s a head fake in the near term although price will remain high imho propped up solely by low rates (for those who can get banks to lend to them) or by cash rich buyers purchasing high end properties. Demographic shift away from big cities is trending. I think housing bargains will occur but patience is required and choosing your location carefully. Some countries house prices are crashing so not just looking at the USA story. Could be great buying opportunities in the next 6 months hidden behind headline figures showing record prices. U.K. market is hot but I think it’s due to the stamp duty holiday solely. Was quiet before that was announced and it ends at the end of the U.K. tax year in April. I think it goes quiet again or down after that. Other examples of prices dropping not rising. Depends where you look.
  • AM
    Alonso M.
    21 September 2020 @ 15:00
    Excellent overview. The jigsaw puzzle is starting to fill in to the point where we can almost see what it looks like.
  • ER
    Ernesto R.
    21 September 2020 @ 15:00
    Amazing presentation Raoul thanks very much for the knwoledge
  • PB
    Paul B.
    21 September 2020 @ 14:58
    Thank you.
  • SW
    Sarah W.
    21 September 2020 @ 13:00
    Raoul, from a treasuries perspective, assume that the Fed will need to buy US treasuries to provide the liquidity for the stimulus, thus pushing yields down and prices up? If so, worth TLT call punts with perhaps a March ‘21 expiry?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      21 September 2020 @ 13:44
      Im long bonds.
    • OK
      Oliver K.
      21 September 2020 @ 14:43
      Thank you Raoul! So the dez 2020 Eurodollar 100 strike call option is still a recommendation?
  • VS
    Vafa S.
    21 September 2020 @ 12:51
    The Dollar view is a bit soft, “stay clear if you’re not into it”, but what if we are?! Sell and take the loss and buy bitcoins/gold, or?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      21 September 2020 @ 13:44
      Im still long dollars.
  • BK
    Binyam K.
    21 September 2020 @ 13:39
    Excellent Presentation, Raoul! Analysis, Design and Implementation. (with exceptions)
  • LO
    Luke O.
    21 September 2020 @ 13:38
    Do you in fact mean, "It's different this time?"
  • FL
    Fabrizio L.
    21 September 2020 @ 13:36
    Really Good one thanks.
  • TS
    Thomas S.
    21 September 2020 @ 13:23
    Thanks for the update. I've been concerned about the economy, etc. for nearly 2 years and have been slowly reducing the equity % (other than gold miners) of my portfolio over that time period. Sure, maybe I was early at least as it relates to the FAANGs, but I just feel that the market is trading decoupled from reality. I think the market will correct rather than reality changing to meet up with the market.
  • HS
    Hugh S.
    21 September 2020 @ 13:20
    Can we get Lyn Alden on to talk about monetary -> fiscal paradigm shift at zero interest?
  • JM
    Jerri M.
    21 September 2020 @ 13:06
    Amazing perspectives and insights. Whether you wrong or right is not the essence here it is the process of rationalization that I respect and enjoy.
  • DJ
    D J.
    21 September 2020 @ 12:13
    "OKAY THERE WAS A WORLD WAR ASWELL" hilarious
  • SB
    Sean B.
    21 September 2020 @ 12:08
    Thank you Raoul, it’s shocking to see the health in the miners balance sheets.
  • Mt
    Miami t.
    21 September 2020 @ 11:41
    Always a pleasure to watch. The only thing Im doubting a bit is if we get a solvency crisis, people will sell off all their assets to eat. Including Gold and Crypto. Raoul, shouldn't you go into this discussion with Henrik Zeberg?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      21 September 2020 @ 11:45
      Yes, they will get hit but over time the correlations will change.
  • CD
    Chris D.
    21 September 2020 @ 11:33
    Excellent video
  • AP
    A P.
    21 September 2020 @ 11:28
    Yep ... Grandma's best play is to put her retirement funds in bitcoin. Solid! :D
  • JH
    Joel H.
    21 September 2020 @ 11:21
    Excellent. Thank you Raoul!
  • TR
    Tadej R.
    21 September 2020 @ 11:00
    Love picking up Raouls amazing mind. Thanks for sharing your thoughts! ♥️
  • DS
    David S.
    21 September 2020 @ 10:18
    Solid update. Well done. You may be a bit more optimistic than I am. That should make you feel better. DLS
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      21 September 2020 @ 10:50
      Haha...thanks David.
  • JF
    Jess F.
    21 September 2020 @ 08:54
    Tx Raoul, very helpful to directing our focus to the big picture. By the way, for those of you pinning hopes on a vaccine (er, innoculation) for covid, could you please point me to any independent research/study on the effectiveness of the regular flu 'vaccine'. I did find one, about 20 yrs old, that essentially claimed there was only a benefical effect in the 3-6% range, statistically, immaterial.
  • RC
    Robert C.
    21 September 2020 @ 08:53
    Right or wrong. Nicely argued and presented.....
  • PM
    Ps M.
    21 September 2020 @ 08:03
    Thanks Raoul, been waiting for this one in unfolding series!!