India: Uncaging a Tiger

Published on
February 19th, 2020
Duration
31 minutes


India: Uncaging a Tiger

The Expert View ·
Featuring Andrei Stetsenko

Published on: February 19th, 2020 • Duration: 31 minutes

Andrei Stetsenko, partner at Farley Capital, joins Real Vision to discuss how India's positive demographic tailwinds could serve as a solution to the global retirement crisis. Stetsenko explains how India's young, growing, and urbanizing population is the polar opposite of the old, shrinking, and already urbanized populations of the developed world. Furthermore, he reveals why India’s demographic factors have been a catalyst for turbo-charged economic development. Stetsenko argues that this trend is only going to continue and discusses the investing framework he has developed after years of investing in India. Filmed on February 6, 2020, in New York.

Comments

Transcript

  • PB
    Paul B.
    1 April 2020 @ 02:08
    What I took from all that is India is steering the wrong way into what has held them in good stead...Even just a small sway from India back to Gold again will be interesting to watch
  • EK
    Edward K.
    1 March 2020 @ 17:37
    India does have real possibilities especially with its demographic profile. However wonder if it is not the economy of the future, like Brazil, and always will be. However use IFN as a proxy: https://www.cefa.com/FundSelector/FundDetail.fs?ID=8775 to have some barometer.
  • FG
    Flavio G.
    19 February 2020 @ 11:33
    Healthy demographics is a necessary but not sufficient condition for sustainable growth. I am afraid India's culture and mentality are not ready for the kind of conversion and development that we have seen in other Asian countries (the tigers). If I can make a parallel with Europe, India would be the Italy or the Greece of Europe, just worse, more chaotic and bigger. Of course with a fertility rate above replacement. Almost everything else about India is wrong.
    • MN
      Maverick N.
      19 February 2020 @ 18:48
      Is your opinion developed on what you read in the media? Have you ever been there? Media wants us all to believe that humanity has 10 years or so left. So there's that/ I just returned after being there for 40+ days and toured at least seven of their metro cities. The growth is truly amazing. They are going to have a recession in the near future with their shadow banks over-levering but they will re-cap their banks, take a deval and go from there. The demographic head wind is just the cherry on the top - the fundamentals are more centered around an entrepreneurial society, a middle class that aspires for a higher quality of life and an agricultural base that is self-sufficient in feeding its own population. Poverty is a problem but as an investor I am focused on the growing middle class.
    • tc
      thomas c.
      20 February 2020 @ 02:17
      Stop trying to make parallels to other countries. You will never understand India that way. It's unique in it's own right. There is only one India in the world. The Asian tigers were also their own model.
    • PB
      Pieter B.
      26 February 2020 @ 15:55
      I agree with you Flavio! Having only spent 6 months in India myself, I cannot see India becoming the next China or Asian Tiger. It is a truly fascinating place though!
  • cs
    chandra s.
    22 February 2020 @ 16:31
    It's not the right time to invest in india. Speaker talks only the rosy picture. With demonetization and high tax, India is totally screwed. you cant buy an automobile without paying 35% tax. below article says all https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/blogs/toi-edit-page/indias-much-abused-taxpayers-you-dont-get-much-benefit-back-salaried-classes-get-the-short-end-of-the-stick/ Also if he looks at this funds, it's all well know names india... with 3% GDP growth and corruption, india cant play the playbook of china. china can build 10,000 beds hospital in a week that can't be the case in corrupt ridden democracy.
    • PB
      Pieter B.
      26 February 2020 @ 15:38
      I totally agree! India is possibly the most exciting country to visit as a tourist, but investing....crazy pollution, water shortages, extreme corruption, extreme income disparity etc will be very hard to overcome! I personally think that in India the rapid urbanisation is actually negative for longterm economic growth, unless the above points are addressed.
    • PB
      Pieter B.
      26 February 2020 @ 15:50
      Thanks a for your presentation Andrei! Your knowledge on India is impressive!
  • JL
    John L.
    22 February 2020 @ 01:23
    The most important thing is the currency rate. Last ten years Rupee depreciated 40 % compared to USD. The currency is directly correlated with Oil price. So be aware. However a bright spot is the Indian equity made 300% gains in the last 10 years.
  • JL
    John L.
    22 February 2020 @ 00:43
    India is no doubt a growth story; there is a startup revolution happening in India. Some of the brilliant minds that built high-tech in US are building something much better over there. However, population and justice system are a big breaks. If you are serious about investing make a trip to India and stay as a regular upper middle class(not in star hotels).
  • TZ
    Tibor Z.
    19 February 2020 @ 20:52
    MAKE A COMMODITIES WEEK. AS IT IS CHEAP A COULD BE A MEANINGFUL INVESTMENT FOR THE FUTURE.
    • CB
      Clifford B.
      19 February 2020 @ 23:35
      This..
    • JP
      John P.
      19 February 2020 @ 23:40
      I agree. Lots to learn in the energy and commodities sectors. Uranium, Potash, Gold, Ind Metals. Plenty of opportunity with record lows relative to tech and inflation risk.
    • FG
      Flavio G.
      20 February 2020 @ 08:50
      Also: A small caps week, I mean the letters not the companies ☺.
    • TK
      Thomas K.
      21 February 2020 @ 01:20
      Agreed, this is a great idea at their valuations
  • DH
    Dabangg H.
    20 February 2020 @ 10:13
    Picking individual stocks esp small names in india sitting in the west is next to impossible for regular joe like me, unfortunately....
  • tc
    thomas c.
    20 February 2020 @ 02:20
    Title is very poor. India is not a Tiger. It's an Elephant.
  • NR
    Nathan R.
    19 February 2020 @ 15:31
    Please correct me if I err here. Indian children learn their regional dialect, Hindi and English in school. They are a broadly politically and culturally pluralistic society. Would a good corollary be late-19th/early-20th century urban U.S.? Generally free and pseudo-capitalist with sluggish/unstable neighbors (Pakistan and Bangladesh). Could India be the "Monsoon Hub" of the world's new aspirational demographic bulge? I am ignorant of India's other raw material assets besides human capital. Are they dependent on raw material imports like Japan?
    • tc
      thomas c.
      20 February 2020 @ 02:12
      No energy, not much other raw materials. auto industry is big but India is not an industrial heavy raw material using economy, big cotton producer and maybe some other agricultural commodities. Human capital and financial capital are it's big assets. I live in India for 20yrs . I first visited in 1980. I know many people you wouldn't expect have accumulated a lot of money. The infrastructure programs are coming on strong. The govt just has to change it's taxation policies. It's killing investment. Before the 20th century India was the richest country in the world, in spite of being pillaged by the Moguls and british for 5 centuries. India was never poor, it was just full of a lot of poor people. Most people have a totally misguided perception of this country. The brits still demeanor it every chance they get. They can't get over loosing it. India is the mother of humanity. But that's far beyond the pale of mass media to grok.
  • AS
    Anthony S.
    20 February 2020 @ 00:52
    Well done Mr. Stetsenko. Most definitely an expert view. One piece of unsolicited advice, not a great idea to compare (2x's) living in a slum as more favorable than living with the in-laws... although I may agree, that may get you in some hot water.
  • RS
    R S.
    20 February 2020 @ 00:40
    This presentation was crisp and well-researched. Bravo!
  • JP
    John P.
    19 February 2020 @ 23:42
    I enjoyed the presentation and have been following the India story but I wish I could know more specific names and/or how to approach India as a retail investor.
  • MK
    Mohit K.
    19 February 2020 @ 07:13
    Sir i want to understand few things...what will happen to demographic dividend if INDIA does not produce enough jobs in the next decade?& another question from which sector or industry will produce large jobs in the next decade?INDIA needs man made manufacturing factories although now automation in the play which need less & less humans to produce more & more goods...please share your views Thanks
    • CB
      Clifford B.
      19 February 2020 @ 23:39
      Would still grow more than the current part time employment levels in US. LOL
  • SW
    Suzanne W.
    19 February 2020 @ 20:14
    Stetsenko's encyclopedic knowledge of India is impressive, and I learned so much from this fascinating interview. He's the best expert I've seen on Expert View. Thank you Real Vision!
  • WG
    Wade G.
    19 February 2020 @ 17:45
    I'm surprised the ratings aren't more favorable. I liked the presentation,... thou I wish he addressed investment vehicles, for retail, that "match" his perspective... even if to say, 'they don't exist'....
  • AC
    Adam C.
    19 February 2020 @ 14:21
    Come on guy. Stick to the economics. Your explanation of Indian cultural is based upon your 2 week stents of staying at the Ritz Carlton. If youre actually going to study the cultural behaviors and speak to the world you better know what you’re talking about. It’s embarrassing.
  • AR
    Abishek R.
    19 February 2020 @ 09:34
    Brilliant presentation.