Lyn Alden’s 2021 Macro Outlook

Published on
January 6th, 2021
Duration
64 minutes


Lyn Alden’s 2021 Macro Outlook

The Expert View ·
Featuring Lyn Alden

Published on: January 6th, 2021 • Duration: 64 minutes

Lyn Alden of Lyn Alden Investment Strategies shares her 2021 thesis for the U.S. dollar, interest rates, inflation, and growth, providing a strategic update of how her expectations for these key macro variables influence her outlook on assets such as commodities, EM equities, real estate, gold, and bitcoin. Alden evaluates whether her bearish view on the dollar, which has proven enormously successful over the past year, has now become a "crowded trade" that offers less upside than it used to. . With insolvency remaining a serious risk, Alden insists that when searching for individual securities, quality must be sought above all else. Looking beyond 2021, Alden evaluates the possibility of the fall of the dollar not just in value, but as a hegemonic reserve currency, and she weighs various replacements to the Petrodollar system, such as a multipolar currency regime, a digital Bancor system, and the possibility of Bitcoin becoming a reserve asset. Filmed on December 17, 2020. For Alden’s article, "The Fraying of the U.S. Global Reserve System," click here: The Fraying of the US Global Currency Reserve System (lynalden.com) Key learnings: Alden expects the U.S. dollar to continue to weaken against hard assets over the course of 2021, with a 3-6 month period of uncertainty. As nominal yields on the long-end of the U.S. Treasurys curve pick up, Alden continues, risk-assets broadly will perform well with equities and commodities outperforming bonds and value outperforming growth. Alden remains very bullish on Bitcoin.

Comments

Transcript

  • JM
    Jake M.
    6 January 2021 @ 09:11
    Interesting, lyn is expecting inflation coming while mike green is not. What's the core difference in argument? timeframe?
    • RD
      R D.
      6 January 2021 @ 11:06
      In my experience, Lyn Alden’s analysis and predictions end up being correct about 90% of the time in a 3-6 month timeframe. I stopped following Mike Green and other “financial analysts” when I realized Lyn alone reliably generates immense alpha, well beyond what anyone else delivers in the Real Vision/newsletter/podcast universe.
    • LF
      Liam F.
      7 January 2021 @ 04:48
      So stop wasting money and time on RV and just subscribe to Lyn's site? ;-)))
    • LS
      Lemony S.
      7 January 2021 @ 21:33
      I really like Mike Green for several reasons. But I would like to know, is he good at predicting anything in the near short term? I mean, in shorter time periods (not 5-10) years that I might not be able to do ... as Jake suggests
    • RD
      R D.
      11 January 2021 @ 00:26
      @Lemony: I have yet to find Mike Green’s long-winded pronouncements to have investing value. Ditto for the majority of “gurus” on RV or FinTwit. Lyn provides alpha. Few others do.
    • DS
      David S.
      17 January 2021 @ 12:29
      Mr. Green predicted passive flows would drive the market above any NPV model valuation. This happened as predicted. It is still happening. This was a tectonic shift. DLS
  • JC
    Jordan C.
    16 January 2021 @ 22:15
    I found incredible value from this video - well done Lyn Alden, can't thank you enough for you thoroughness and well done Real Vision for providing the platform.
  • VA
    Victor A.
    15 January 2021 @ 04:35
    Incredible Video
  • DK
    David K.
    15 January 2021 @ 01:42
    Brilliant. Thank you Lynn and RV. One point I did not get is why gold cannot be part of the new reset or be the reset itself. The argument that is is only $10 trillion in total asset value seems irrelevant considering that the asset value is expressed in today’s overvalued USD. I would appreciate if RV could do a follow-on series to discuss the idea of an eventual system reset after the period of the fraying around the edges and dedollarization of trade come to an end.
  • AH
    Andreas H.
    12 January 2021 @ 12:03
    Excellent Video!!!
  • FP
    Fram P.
    11 January 2021 @ 10:34
    She is simply the best give s actionable info is clear and coherent Knows what she is talking about
  • GG
    Gary G.
    10 January 2021 @ 06:58
    Stunning interview!
  • BS
    Benjamin S.
    10 January 2021 @ 01:28
    Pure Gold. L.yn A.lden = L.isten A.gain.....and again, and again. Rewind, play. Rewind, play. A one hour video turns into a 4 hour viewing session. There is just so much knowledge and insight packed into Lyn's videos. Straight forward, no nonsense viewpoints. All backed by charts and historical data. I appreciate Lyn's long terms view's on things. As always, thanks to the folks at RV for getting Lyn on.
  • ND
    Nivtej D.
    6 January 2021 @ 19:47
    Great would as overview by Lyn. Now let’s have Hugh Hendry’s 2021 with or without the CBD lol jk
    • DT
      David T.
      6 January 2021 @ 23:06
      :))
    • LF
      Liam F.
      9 January 2021 @ 21:00
      Only if Hugh promises to comb his hair and cut his macro-poet schtick.
  • DD
    Dmitry D.
    6 January 2021 @ 12:21
    Love listening to Lyn. Of all the "macro analysts" she seems to be the one less married to her core thesis and more data-driven.
    • AS
      Atul S.
      7 January 2021 @ 20:45
      She has an engineer's approach.
    • AP
      Alfonso P.
      9 January 2021 @ 15:14
      Women have better focus and synthesis capacity than men!
  • DA
    David A.
    7 January 2021 @ 12:09
    I like Lyn Alden because she doesn't feel the need to come up with some grand-sounding theory in order to show how clever she is. Nor does she pretend that a favourite indicator can act as a crystal ball. She just uses facts and evidence in order to identify the most likely path moving forwards. It's a sad reflection of the human ego that many pundits are anchored to their own theory (the dollar milkshake) and use that to tell the markets what to do.
    • LS
      Lemony S.
      7 January 2021 @ 21:31
      I agree with paragraph 1, good points. You don't have to dog someone (paragraph 2) to try to prove the point though. BJ is thoughtful regardless, as well. And this is the twitter and youtube age, so I don't begrudge anyone for fame or marketing, if they aren't douches (BJ is not).
    • DA
      David A.
      8 January 2021 @ 13:46
      Replying to Lemony S: If there was an edit function, I would probably delete paragraph 2. My point is that grand theories sound seductive and people get anchored to them, so that it becomes the prism through which you see the world. This affects many people, myself included. But Lyn strikes me as remarkably objective.
  • ZN
    Zhuojia N.
    6 January 2021 @ 22:32
    I like Lyn and her thesis on bitcoin, except 2 points: 1) compare Bitcoin total mkt cap to Gold $10 trillion. This is a very common comparison but fundamentally flawed. Bitcoin becoming digital gold does not guarantee a similar mkt cap to Gold. Let's say the mature status for bitcoin is 5% in every portfolio in the world as a role of digital gold /alternative commodities; but if most investors able to accumulate their 5% bitcoin holding through the cycle at average cost <50k or <100k; then the total mkt cap just stays <1 or 2 trillions; 2) four year halving cycle: i'm not saying our crypto or financial mkt is fully efficient, but if an event has 100% chance to happen, determined by math and codes from day 1, it should be largely priced in ?? (maybe not from day 1 but from the day it’s widely known). If this is already largely priced in, the analysis based on the halving cycle doesn’t makes as much sense as admitting the market is highly inefficient, too much speculation & manipulation, and the halving cycle is really just an excuse used to pump the price
    • KW
      Krzysztof W.
      7 January 2021 @ 19:10
      Average institutional investor has less than 1% of their portfolio invested in gold and yet, as you mentioned, total mkt cap is 10T USD. If inst. investors would allocate, on average as you are suggesting, 5% to BTC - I can assure you that BTC mkt cap would be way higher than 10T USD. (it's just based on your 5% assumption).
    • ZN
      Zhuojia N.
      7 January 2021 @ 23:48
      i'm not suggesting 5% allocation. Point being the bitcoin mkt cap should be a function of average $ cost of acquiring bitcoin through the cycle to its mature status, not a simple comparion to current gold mkt cap.
    • ZN
      Zhuojia N.
      7 January 2021 @ 23:56
      a recent example would be SQ acquired 50m USD worth of bitcoin without moving the mkt at all. imagine that repeats again and again. It's almost always the retail driving up the price. Not anti-bitcoin, but simply suggesting we should look at this in a more pragmatic way.
  • DS
    David S.
    7 January 2021 @ 22:57
    Outstanding presentation by Ms. Alden, as expected. Concerning the mediums of exchange, just let each buyer and each seller decide what form of exchange they wish to use. Let each country manage its own fiat currency for good or for bad. (Switzerland chose to lower the value of its Franc so its corporations could have a more level playing field against the experimental Euro.) Let the markets with skin in the game settle on the relative value of each asset - fiat currency, gold, bitcoin. It will not be perfect, but the taxpayers will not have to bail out the CBs. In addition, politicians will have the FX market looking over their shoulders. The major interesting point then is which fiat currencies and or assets will investors keep in their savings. DLS
  • GT
    Guillaume T.
    7 January 2021 @ 22:17
    Lyn president! Awesome work. Thanks for the insight.
  • LS
    Lemony S.
    7 January 2021 @ 21:34
    I love Lyn's analysis and am in the same framework generally. She must be really smart (-: Who outdoes her projection wise? It's a followup from one of the original posts here. Best to all in 2021.
  • TH
    Timothy H.
    7 January 2021 @ 21:30
    A lot of content in a short amount of time, but what do you expect when Lyn is on the show! Thanks for the great insight
  • JP
    John P.
    7 January 2021 @ 21:16
    Lyn is terrific, as always. Thank you Lyn!
  • dw
    douglas w.
    7 January 2021 @ 21:09
    Its nice to see Lyn take a stronger seat in the RV world, incredibly thoughtful and accurate. Her view is balanced and takes into account possible pitfalls without overly conceptualizing trade ideas. ie: dollar milkshake / tesla q - which would have put most retailers out of business by now. Great to have her in the mix!
  • AS
    Aki S.
    7 January 2021 @ 19:59
    I need 0.85x speed for Lyn! So much great information so fast! Brain overload :D
  • TP
    Timothy P.
    7 January 2021 @ 18:32
    Lyn - right with you on that Dollar outlook. China has been actively routing around the dollar for a while, as you know, they have direct energy contracts with Russia denominated in Ruble/Yuan. Also, as you mentioned, they don't bother holding US Treasuries. Makes sense, the coming Yellen wave of "stimulus" is going to be titanic. Luckily there's Bitcoin, as gold seems to have been placid by comparison in this adverse environment.
  • PG
    Pavel G.
    7 January 2021 @ 17:02
    Lyn is an absolute Macro Queen and you aren't gonna argue with that.
  • JM
    Jason M.
    7 January 2021 @ 15:29
    Lyn's style and mind is a great synergy of Engineering/math/data and Macro Contrarian. Her free monthly newsletters are a great overview for those seeking relatively unbiased perspectives.
  • GV
    Gerard V.
    7 January 2021 @ 15:09
    I wonder what the strength of the dollar is to the share of U.S. GDP to global GDP... It seems like it may not be China who eats into the share of global GDP, but the growth of emerging markets may make, and probably needs to make the world a more equitable environment. I think this may be part of the U.S. role as a leader in democracy. We may have to slowly lose share of Global GDP, not in the name of a new global world power, but to grow a system of trade based on rule of law. This could be part of the 4th Turning. Not just the efficiency of our institutions on a U.S. level, but the problem with our relationship in global institutions, which no one seems to talk much about.
  • DD
    David D.
    7 January 2021 @ 07:40
    fresh thinking and generally cogent, clear, communication
  • CS
    Christopher S.
    7 January 2021 @ 06:41
    I love her ideas and thoughts. Thank you RV!
  • AL
    Aaron L.
    7 January 2021 @ 06:11
    Can you get Lyn and Julian Brigden to have a talk, that would be mind blowing. cheers
  • SR
    Sangamesh R.
    6 January 2021 @ 19:04
    How about TLT guys? Most of us invested in March 19 calls. Do you think it's still good to keep?
    • JA
      John A.
      7 January 2021 @ 03:28
      Probably going to expire worthless now that the Dems are in control. Mine isn't worth selling vs keeping as a Bitcoin hedge or in case there is a sudden spike due to an unexpected event before then. It's had too much of its premium sapped today. I'll probably buy some more protection once the 10Y gets around 2%. Markets can't handle higher yields, the debt load is too high, it causes too much pressure in the system. Meantime, Bitcoin is gonna do its thing.
  • KB
    Kirk B.
    7 January 2021 @ 00:54
    As always, Lyn Alden provides a clear, well thought out, and articulately presented macro outlook and its investment implications. Of particular note, the summary of history and outlook that she provides regarding the US Dollar's role as the World's reserve currency, which constituted about half of her presentation, was superb. I have read numerous articles, watched many videos, and read several books discussing the global monetary system and the Dollar's role within it. None described as succinctly and skillfully as Lyn Alden did in this Expert View the evolution of the Dollar as the World's Reserve Currency within the Bretton Woods system and the subsequent petrodollar system, as well as the what the next monetary system could look like.
  • JS
    Jon S.
    6 January 2021 @ 23:43
    Happy new year to the Queen of Macro! Splendid!
  • NL
    Nikola L.
    6 January 2021 @ 22:39
    Lyn is the rockstar of RV.
  • AP
    Alistair P.
    6 January 2021 @ 17:35
    No transcript?
  • KN
    Kresten N.
    6 January 2021 @ 16:33
    I love Lyn but when was this interview? Because it sounds like it is 2ish weeks old. I think RV should write when it was recorded (Did I miss that somehwere?), and also make an effort of publishing ASAP. 2 weeks is too old, even though it is mostly general and not affected...
    • MW
      Max W. | Real Vision
      6 January 2021 @ 17:11
      This was filmed on December 17, 2020. Film date is located in every description, except for live interviews as the film date and air date are inherently the same. The first 3 Essential pieces of the 2021 were filmed before the holiday period to allow for our staff and our guests to take some much needed time off for the holidays. We will be back to a faster release schedule starting with tomorrow's interview.
    • JF
      Jack F. | Real Vision
      6 January 2021 @ 17:34
      Hi Kresten, as Max mentioned this was filmed on December 17, 2020. Despite it being filmed so long ago, Lyn's views have proven very prescient. For an update to her thesis, I will be interviewing Lyn today on the Daily Briefing, which airs tonight at 6pm ET
  • JV
    Jan V.
    6 January 2021 @ 17:19
    One of the first generalists to mention uranium as an uncorrelated asset to own. Very interesting to see!
  • AP
    Adam P.
    6 January 2021 @ 16:26
    Great stuff, as always. Lyn never disappoints.
  • RH
    Roger H.
    6 January 2021 @ 15:58
    Lyn has such a clear mind AND she is able to communicate her thoughts clearly too. I believe I've listen to all podcasts and interviews with her, such great value! I guess she will soon realise that she doesn't have time to work as an engineer anymore:)
  • JG
    JAMES G.
    6 January 2021 @ 15:53
    What a great thinker and communicator!
  • AM
    Alastair M.
    6 January 2021 @ 11:53
    By a margin the most comprehensive and balanced analysis of the USD out there
  • SH
    Steve H.
    6 January 2021 @ 11:30
    A tour de force. Thanks.
  • KS
    Kim S.
    6 January 2021 @ 07:32
    One of the perks with being in Europe. Watching Real Vision and Lyn with my morning coffee.