Comments
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MTThis guy is spot on with the number one issue with European Markets there is no Liquidity, and the importance there of certainly resonates with me. We're all different but personally I have absolutely no interest in putting capital to work in any idea or thesis unless it can be expressed in an instrument with very high liquidity i.e. spreads less than $0.10 cents wide. For optimal liquidity all roads lead to the US made possible by multiple HFT Market Makers/Counter-parties competing for order flow from Brokerages i.e. they pay Brokerages to access their order flow in effect subsidising trading commissions paid by 'retail clients' .
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IOThis was the interview I joined RV for. Excellent.
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DSWhat would the price to book for BNP (not picking on BNP) be if the present value of non-performing loans were written off? It would also be interesting to see the same number for JPM. Of course, the discount rates would be different. DLS
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SDA very succint and enlightning analysis of the European landscape. The liquidity numbers are especially startling but I am increasingly concerned about cited liquidity in US stocks. Every Bank, Prime Broker, leveraged ETF and alternative lender seems increasingly focused on daily liquidity as the major benchmark for lending or trading limits. In essence everyone seems to be relying on everyone elses liquidity. But 80%+ of this massive liquidity (As Mr Ondruch observes FAANG stocks trade more than all the stockmarkets of Europe where 500m people live) are just algos swapping stock. If anything were to hapen to withdraw that activity the 'real' liquiity would be massively less. The chances of this causing a disorderly unwind seem to me to be higher than zero. But a great summary of the multiple challenges facing Europe and the European investor, thanks Bernd Ondruch and RV.
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TWBernd, a great wrap, thank you
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ARPublished 21 days after filming.
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ACReally really really solid A+
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MBI thought this to be a very concise summary of the investment case. I found it interesting to hear his rather constructive view on Santander (not sure that he would buy it but on relative terms to others) while Raoul - if not mistaken - is pretty bearish on the inherent NPL risks there? It is very true that the few invested money in Europe is concentrated in only a handful stocks thus those quality names are even after last week's sell off still very expensive on p/e, p/book or EV/EBITDA basis. It would need another 20% market decline before the risk / return would become more compelling. Question: liquidity is apparently the key theme these days: are there any comprehensive sources which are easy accessible for private investors (eg flows about CTAs, risk / parity strategies etc etc). Pls bring Bernd back next year and complement him maybe with a speaker with an inherently bullish view on Europe (if someone still had one....)? tks.
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JBExcellent summary of Europe! What a value trap indeed!
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AGYikes, Im afraid he is correct.
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FBAn extremely frank and comprehensive view of Europe in a reasonable interview time frame. Would have enjoyed seeing it sooner as this was filmed almost a month ago. Please bring Mr. Ondruch back!
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VKExcellent interview. Bernd articulated many of things I've been seeing in European markets this year, especially around liquidity.
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JSThe quality of RV interview participants never ceases to amaze.
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BKKUDOS! Fabulous insights, crisply presented. Valuable "inside baseball" from a knowledgeable expert.
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TSThanks. Clean analysis that made sense to me anyway. I'd love to hear more about EU banking, and maybe the German in special. DB's derivatives book? how big, and how big a problem? How can EU banks possibly clean out the NPF's? NPF's - a Mediterranean problem, or German as well? How bad will it hurt? It seems that the potential DB/CB merge, add to that consolidation and further merges? Outcome could be a strong and solvent(?) German bank. Something that could come out of a near crisis?
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DSExcellent analysis. It would be very interesting to hear Mr. Ondruch's analysis of the US from an European viewpoint. He is smart and practical. A rare combination. DLS
Chapters
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What Challenges are Facing Europe?
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How Does Low Liquidity Impact Your Portfolio Construction?
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What’s Your View of European Banks?
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Where Do You See Opportunity in Europe?
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Do You See an Economic Escape Route for Europe?
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Are Germany’s Equity Markets still the Strongest in Europe?
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What’s your view on Italy?
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How Can Investors Position Themselves for European Underperformance?