Raoul’s Macro Dispatch: “Be Bloody Careful”

Published on
March 16th, 2020
Duration
29 minutes

Latest Videos



Raoul’s Macro Dispatch: “Be Bloody Careful”

The Expert View ·
Featuring Raoul Pal

Published on: March 16th, 2020 • Duration: 29 minutes

Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal reports from self-quarantine on Little Cayman to break down this jaw-dropping week of volatility, rate-cutting, and continued contagion. Using charts published today in his renowned research publication, Global Macro Investor, Raoul analyzes the ongoing spread of the COVID-19 virus. He examines the plumbing of the markets in what could be the beginnings of a full-fledged liquidity crisis. Raoul unpacks his macro outlook on stocks, bonds, credit, gold, and the dollar. Filming in real time, Raoul then adds a post-script about the astonishing rate cut by the Fed. Filmed on March 15, 2020, on Little Cayman. Find Raoul's latest GMI report on the coronavirus outbreak here: https://rvtv.io/2vv2h04

Comments

Transcript

  • CT
    Crispim T.
    16 March 2020 @ 17:51
    Raoul said "I really thing Bitcoin is where it all goes" - I agree with that. If you're patient and place your buys carefully, you'll be smiling a lot in a couple of years. Bitcoin (BTC) is the end game here. It dumped along with gold as all the gamblers where trying to avoid margin calls, but all BTC indicators are looking absolutely fantastic: MVRV Z-Score, Energy Cost Oscillator, 2-Year MA Multiplier, stock-to-flow forecast, etc, etc. This is the band to accumulate BTC and there's maybe 6 months left of it. Meanwhile BTC supply will halve (with some Zombie miners dying off and being replaced by more efficient ones) and match Gold's, while the debt-based fiat world is printing like crazy. Fed, ECB, FMI, rampage. The past 11 years were good, do you really thing this will end differently now that everything is starting to align? The present events are the beginning of the most extreme rise of BTC in 2021+ Great video. Choose wisely, and be careful. BTC is the future.
    • SB
      Stephen B.
      16 March 2020 @ 23:34
      I am nervous of Btc for one reason and that it stands in the way of the BIS/EMF/CB's plans to launch a global digital currency. Surely they are going to use this crisis to further that goal?
    • DC
      Douglas C.
      28 March 2020 @ 15:59
      Crisp, No clue what bitcoin is or does really but love the idea of it being an alternative to the current clusterf...g economic chaos. I read that Ethereum could be considered the silver of the crypto world, more utility but still a store of value as well. For a novice what would you recommend I buy btc or eth or other and am I able simply buy and hold or or transactions mandatory? Thanks Douglas Caz
  • CE
    Colin E.
    26 March 2020 @ 01:26
    Thanks as always for the insight.
  • js
    jeffrey s.
    24 March 2020 @ 19:15
    Raoul, I have a long time horizon - 25 years or so. What do you recommend for those with such a long time horizon? Buying equities now down by 35%? or hold cash and wait for while longer?
  • js
    jeffrey s.
    24 March 2020 @ 19:15
    Raoul, I have a long time horizon - 25 years or so. What do you recommend for those with such a long time horizon? Buying equities now down by 35%? or hold cash and wait for while longer?
  • DS
    David S.
    16 March 2020 @ 19:19
    Taxpayers should not bail out the hedge funds. At least let them consolidate or go bankrupt. They are in the risk management business. They knew and bet on the possible outcomes. Clean the mess up in courts. The government needs to focus on the helping real companies and real people survive the Coronavirus. Banks are already being ruined by trying to save the hedge funds in the repo market. DLS
    • WC
      Wilson C.
      17 March 2020 @ 07:09
      that's been IMHO the problem with central bankers, they don't help mainstream economy / businesses. Totally agree with you, let wall street/funds work it out through the bankruptcy process.
    • DD
      Derek D.
      20 March 2020 @ 20:40
      Wilson it's impossible for a counterfeiter to help people. At least not without hurting others.
    • RS
      Reginald S.
      23 March 2020 @ 16:46
      Raoul, you state that nameless hedge funds make decent profits by leveraging their bets. There is no hedge fund risk management if profits are privatized and losses are socialized (covered by taxpayers). Why do you act so matter of fact in your delivery that bailouts are needed rather than being outraged?
  • WM
    Wayne M.
    22 March 2020 @ 17:03
    I had a pretty heavy TVIX holding in my portfolio (mostly bought at $40 or $50 a share) and sold it in dribs and drabs all the way up to $950. Then I started to get concerned over rumors that the markets might just close down for a few months until everything settled down. Of course, that would kill any TVIX holdings as it would likely return to the bottom of the range when markets reopened. So I got out completely and into cash. What do you think are the odds that markets close on a big downleg? If they lose 20-30% over the next few weeks, will there be an intervention to just stop trading until the end of this economic "ice age"? Or will trading just carry on as normal for the duration?
  • ST
    Steven T.
    21 March 2020 @ 09:13
    Appreciate if someone can explain how hedge funds are in a position were they are needing to be bailed out via - is their role in the market right now, as opposed to just being left to go bust....
    • WW
      Wade W.
      22 March 2020 @ 02:30
      Wall Street runs the world, sorry to break it to you. Only this time, they really crossed the line. This will go down as one of the biggest cons ever, you just watch.
  • WW
    Wade W.
    22 March 2020 @ 02:22
    Raoul, you are one of the smartest people on this planet. Please contact the White House and help them limit the damage this is causing. You have lots of money. It can’t always be about making money or our world is doomed. Think about the next generations please. And fuck the rest of you loving this as you short it ... scum bag fucks!!!
  • RP
    Richard P.
    22 March 2020 @ 02:09
    Can someone explain why the world remains in such denial over the economic / social implications of this pandemic? Is it simply because most are still in the "shock" phase at the financial losses many have experienced in such a short period of time? Is it frustration that many knew of this COVID-19 virus -- but failed to really explore the risks, and are therefore praying for a 2nd chance to get out of jail? Is it legacy thinking that the Greenspan Put still somehow exists and the corresponding V-shaped rally is coming. I mean it always comes - right???? Or is it simply the perfect storm of loss of income / business, poor investment positioning, large financial losses, high levels of indebtedness and no immediate savior just too painful to even think about?
  • yd
    yon d.
    21 March 2020 @ 21:00
    I've just re-watched this episode. Raoul nailed it on every point. And it all happened within 1 week. Great foresight, Raoul! Can't wait for the next episode.
    • DH
      Dale H.
      22 March 2020 @ 01:05
      I enjoy watching people being interviewed in rooms where their voice echoes and bounces off the walls - so pleasant.
  • FR
    Frank R.
    21 March 2020 @ 23:52
    I have no idea what is going on. All I know to do is hodl bitcoin and some gold. I hope that works out.
  • GR
    Grant R.
    20 March 2020 @ 02:58
    Nobody's fault? When I grew up, you anticipated hard times and planned for them. If you didn't you were "irresponsible". The bible says to have 7 years of grain in case of famine, the current LDS church says have 1 year supply of food for your family+. BTW I'm not in either of those religions. Now, if a business has a capital reserve for hard times they are bad and will be raided by an hostile takeover.
    • GR
      Grant R.
      20 March 2020 @ 02:59
      In those days, the assets of poorly run businesses, would be transferred to "good" businesses. Capitalism. Now the weak are spared, by taxing the prudent. Then the prudent are raided for their savings.
  • PD
    Paul D.
    16 March 2020 @ 22:21
    Why is USD expected to rise in aftermath/short term given the fall in US yields?
    • ML
      Mike L.
      17 March 2020 @ 00:55
      As I understand it, it's because it's a global safe haven.
    • ly
      lena y.
      18 March 2020 @ 23:09
      Globally short of US dollar. Goto Jeff Snider's site which provides an in-depth explanation about Euro dollar shortage.
  • AB
    Adeel B.
    18 March 2020 @ 21:51
    Can we see this on an app or something rather than on a laptop? :)
  • sc
    sung c.
    18 March 2020 @ 16:58
    Thank Raoul for your great information. Scary though it is, it's truly appreciated. Stay safe.
  • PC
    Paul C.
    17 March 2020 @ 17:28
    Could we see GBP going to parity with the USD? Is that a decent bet?
    • JS
      John S.
      18 March 2020 @ 08:36
      He's already made that call
    • PC
      Paul C.
      18 March 2020 @ 11:16
      Thanks John...
  • BS
    Bill S.
    16 March 2020 @ 21:43
    Over the top - stay away from people - sorry but grew up w the measles etc no massive panic pandemic blah blah - that period until vaccines a decade + later didn't incorporate complete shutdown and hoarding behavior which at the public level disadvantages everyone. Measles R naught @12 and this Covid @2-4. Public using cave man brain in an AI world.....a case study in mis-management top down. RP correct about an economic impact but my view is a result of hoarding behavior - in markets both shopping and the throw the dice 99% emotion/1% data financial markets, a house of cards.
    • JS
      John S.
      18 March 2020 @ 08:38
      You might want to do more homework about this disease!
  • JP
    Jonathan P.
    18 March 2020 @ 04:04
    Does fed commercial paper update make its way to these hedge funds?
    • JP
      Jonathan P.
      18 March 2020 @ 04:19
      Or primary dealer funding
  • DH
    David H.
    18 March 2020 @ 00:47
    Does the spike in the 10 year treasury yield offer an opportunity to re-enter that trade, with the expectation that the yield will go to zero, or has that thesis changed?
    • AP
      ANTHONY P.
      18 March 2020 @ 02:24
      Great question.
  • BO
    Barbaros O.
    17 March 2020 @ 19:22
    Raoul, seriously - wtf is going with the Eudollar trade? FED announced zero and yet options (DEC 99.5 calls) are heading down. Is it LIBOR/OIS spread widening the culprit and if so, what is your longer view on it?
  • MM
    Michael M.
    16 March 2020 @ 22:25
    Who are the "nameless hedge funds"
    • TM
      Troy M.
      17 March 2020 @ 00:49
      Yea...that's the big elephant in the room.
    • Ad
      Alec d.
      17 March 2020 @ 19:07
      Sounds like he's talking about the big market makers. Citadel etc
  • TE
    Tim E.
    17 March 2020 @ 01:15
    You are looking tanned and healthy Raoul. Stay healthy. Mental health is going to BADLY suffer as a result of all this as well, however. Not many talking about that.
    • PC
      Paul C.
      17 March 2020 @ 17:23
      Well said Tim... I was freaking-out early on & getting a bit down. Thankfully though I took Julian Brigden's advice... go to cash & wait. Protect your downside & get things into perspective... it's only money at the end of the day.
  • HC
    Hahns C.
    17 March 2020 @ 16:44
    If you see it following the pattern similar to 1929, then are you seeing a ~90% drop in the US equity market valuations? Everyone seeing and squawking a 30% devaluation but that is is not a 1929 pattern. 30% drop is more like post US depression market drops. Your thoughts are appreciated.
  • RM
    Ron M.
    16 March 2020 @ 08:23
    Raoul, what happens with puts/calls when they shut the market? I've seen this question all over the place. I understand a ban on short selling, but do you believe it's possible to close out options?
    • NI
      Nate I.
      16 March 2020 @ 14:29
      Or even the simple case? You're long an April put contract but markets are closed until May. What happens to the put?
    • MD
      Mike D.
      16 March 2020 @ 15:09
      That's the same question which has been costing some sleep on my side. Looking forward to understanding.
    • MD
      Mike D.
      17 March 2020 @ 11:08
      I believe the answer is found starting on page 60 of the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options publication, which is provided when one is granted options trading privilege in the US. Essentially, a holder is 'locked into their position'. There's further detail in the text about what happens at expiration for American and European style options.
  • AP
    ANTHONY P.
    17 March 2020 @ 09:22
    Raoul, I'm hearing that some short seller funding is drying up. Here is one example: "More super funds stop lending to short sellers By Lucy Battersby, 'The $12.5 billion Motor Trades Association of Australia (MTAA) superannuation fund this afternoon confirmed it too will no longer lend stock to shortsellers.'" Does this alter your market/investing analysis and/or advice in any meaningful way? P.S. Your gold advice has already paid for my subscription many times over. Gratefully, Anthony
  • bw
    brent w.
    17 March 2020 @ 08:56
    Thank you!
  • CM
    Chris M.
    16 March 2020 @ 16:00
    Know people love bitcoin, but not a fan. This is a great opportunity to purchase assets that earn cash at high yields. If you pick the right companies, their products will increase in price with inflation. Rather use my cash on something that is generating cash vs a digital product that has not shown a great track record. While some may argue it is a store of value, it doesn't earn a return outside of speculation. If cash tightens, people will unload bitcoin so they can actually buy things they need to live.
    • AA
      Andrew A.
      17 March 2020 @ 07:15
      It's not an either / or. Yes invest more in the assets you mention but also have a (smaller) position in bitcoin as the potential is huge.
  • yy
    yip y.
    17 March 2020 @ 06:29
    impressive communication style - i actually understand your thoughts and analysis. Some are saying this is not as bad as 2008. While 2008 was subprime, 2020 is collapse of global supply and global demand where we are embarking on protectionism and global economic warfare. So, it could be worst. Also, a regular guy with $250K, $500K or $1MM capital in the market will not be able to stomach two big market collapses in his "buy, hold" investment strategy now that he is in his 60s. Things are going get rough - esp when you add in no sports, no drugs, no bar, no restaurant, no strip club because of virus.
  • MS
    Matt S.
    17 March 2020 @ 05:23
    With all due respect, WTF does having guns have to do with Curfews?? Such a dumb lefty comment! Law abiding citizens (99.99% of legal gun owners) will just pull out AKs and point them at any police officer who tells them to stay indoors? You're trippin' Raoul! And please, your "wife" doesn't need to worry about her SME as you are her "husband" with $15mil+ so......... less of the sob stories please. Nice tan btw, enjoying the beach and cocktails? Jaja.
  • ZY
    ZHENG Y.
    17 March 2020 @ 04:11
    i kind of like how the topic change sound like sponge cartoon "5 minutes later..."
  • MF
    Megan F.
    17 March 2020 @ 03:52
    Raoul, it it possible to share a link to any BIS research that discusses these leveraged hedge funds/broker-dealers ? Cheers
  • JH
    Jason H.
    17 March 2020 @ 03:47
    I've heard of separate beds but separate islands!
  • PF
    Pierre F.
    17 March 2020 @ 03:39
    Is there any correlation btw USD and BTC. Will USD explosion drag BTC up or push it down
  • ML
    Murali L.
    17 March 2020 @ 03:39
    What’s the quantifiable evidence this “lockdown” has helped save lives? And, at what cost?
  • CH
    Cory H.
    17 March 2020 @ 01:52
    What was that film he suggested?
    • VS
      Vasil S.
      17 March 2020 @ 02:22
      Margin Call
  • CJ
    Caldwell J.
    17 March 2020 @ 01:48
    Thanks Raoul. I really appreciate your insights from a macro perspective. I learn something every time I see one of your videos. You're an excellent teacher. Take care
  • FI
    Frank I.
    17 March 2020 @ 01:41
    Raoul that was brilliant; a great mix of your expert insight vs detailed trade ideas. Please keep it coming! Thank you!
  • YB
    Yaj B.
    17 March 2020 @ 01:29
    Thanks for keeping these video's open to all members! It goes long way!
  • DJ
    Douglas J.
    17 March 2020 @ 00:24
    Imho the people with the guns will be the first to accept a quarantine
    • DJ
      Douglas J.
      17 March 2020 @ 00:25
      Great update tho very very informative at a critical point
  • WM
    W M.
    16 March 2020 @ 23:19
    Thank you Raoul! These are interesting times and you guys/gals continue to hit it out of the park in terms of Real Vision content. Much appreciated. All of you. Thank you.
  • VS
    Vasil S.
    16 March 2020 @ 23:02
    I feel sick after watching that!
  • EG
    Eduardo G.
    16 March 2020 @ 22:30
    Amazing. Raul, big thanks! When all of this ends RealVision should get involved in the production of "Margin Call 2"
  • AJ
    Adam J.
    16 March 2020 @ 14:24
    Strange, I have a diverse array of Eurodollar contracts and sort from the initial spike they havnt moved much on the 1% Fed cut. Anyone more tenured than myself know why that is?
    • AJ
      Adam J.
      16 March 2020 @ 14:24
      *apart from
    • BH
      Boris H.
      16 March 2020 @ 14:48
      Second that question - Raoul, if you could shed some light on the Eurodollar mechanics and why they have not moved, that would be great. Thanks for everything!
    • PC
      Philip C.
      16 March 2020 @ 15:07
      ED is priced off 3m USD LIBOR. So if FF rate falls but 3m LIBOR/OIS stays wide or expands like now/ 2008 due to interbank/ OTC funding risk then ED's wont move.
    • MN
      Mughen N.
      16 March 2020 @ 15:23
      What are the chances we see a divergence from FF and a spike in Libor 3m like we did in 2008 while FF went down? What do we watch out for to possibly exit ED's before? https://www.thebalance.com/libor-rate-history-compare-to-the-fed-funds-rate-history-3306123
    • BL
      Bart L.
      16 March 2020 @ 17:51
      When Raoul says he does see ED's go to 100, I wonder if he means that he sees the FED taking the rate negative. Because historically 3M LIBOR has never exactly followed FF, rather it has alwas been a few basis points higher. So for ED's to go to 100, FF needs to be lower than 0. Or am I missing something here? After watching the Betting on an inflection point video, I bought DEC20 99.5 strike calls last september hoping for 9x when the underlying hits 100. Now FF is 0-0.25 the future isn't yet there. So I'm wondering if I should just take the profit now. Also, anybody here know if it is even possible for LIBOR to go negative?
    • PC
      Philip C.
      16 March 2020 @ 20:39
      @ Mughen H We are already seeing it. Half the battle is won as we're back to ZIRP. Optimally, when interbank funding/risk eases i.e. when 3m LIBOR/OIS comes back in. @ Woeker W LIBOR can go negative if FOMC takes rates sub zero. Take a look at JPY, CHF LIBOR.
    • AJ
      Adam J.
      16 March 2020 @ 22:26
      Thank you for the replies
  • PN
    Peter N.
    16 March 2020 @ 09:54
    Totally agree with Raoul on Australia being way too late. The health authorities here are not adequately prepared at all. My sister is a Dr at one of the big hospitals here and came down with some Covid like symptoms. She was sent home but told that they could not test her, as they do not have enough testing kits!! Was hoping the weather factor might save us but I have a feeling that we are only a few weeks behind Italy.
    • SS
      Shanthi S.
      16 March 2020 @ 21:51
      100% agree. Asked my local dentists office yesterday what protocols they have in place, and if they're screening patients. I was almost laughed at, and then told that you're only likely to catch the virus if you been overseas recently and not to worry. EFFING UNBELIEVABLE!!! This dentist treats some of the wealthiest people in the country btw, he's not some two dollar dentist. Also, I happen to know the father of one of the top infectious disease experts in the country. Based on his son's updates, he shows a COMPLETE lack of concern, and even trotted out the "it's just a bad flu" line to me the other day. I fed him some statistics that I'm sure went in one ear and out the other, and still no one is wearing masks... We're phukt.
  • PC
    Petros C.
    16 March 2020 @ 12:27
    THE IMPORTANCE OF KEEPING AWAY FROM PEOPLE. Follow-up from my comment in Mr.Pozzi’s video: As I mentioned before, I was quarantined in the tropical island of Hainan, in South China sea. Earlier today, a large team from the Chinese CDC & Police wearing hazmats suits showed-up in our gated development and arrested several Chinese people who have arrived from Europe recently. I read in a WeChat group that their multi-million USD tropical villa was thoroughly disinfected. I am speechless about how these guys managed to get through several layers of security (bribing?), as all travellers arriving in China & Hong Kong from countries with active coronavirus cases must be quarantined for 14 days in government designated premises. In addition, new arrivals in our development are either banned or scrutinized. I don’t have any additional information yet and I pray for the sake of all of us that these guys were not infected. I never venture outside without a face mask, googles and sometimes disposable gloves. I do not plan to leave my flat for the next few days. During the last 2 weeks we were allowed to roam the city of Sanya and I seized the opportunity to stock in food & household supplies! Stay healthy. Everything comes second! Raoul, thank you for your unique insight!
    • HS
      Hendrik S.
      16 March 2020 @ 21:13
      Interesting, and what a difference from the policy in the netherlands, uk and germany where it is believed that covid19 cannot be stopped but only managed to some extend
  • JM
    John M.
    16 March 2020 @ 18:34
    Raoul: Do you see a big negative impact on banks from shutdowns (which I assume most countries are going to undertake). They are major lenders to small and medium enterprises.
    • HS
      Hendrik S.
      16 March 2020 @ 21:05
      Raoul doesn t want to cause a bank run obviously
  • EK
    Edward K.
    16 March 2020 @ 20:16
    Consistently glean useful actionable nuggets. Thank you Raoul!
  • TL
    T L.
    16 March 2020 @ 19:32
    @Raoul @everyone https://medium.com/deep-code/situational-assessment-right-now-7d9856b562f5 Must read, this could get really ugly quickly.
  • JS
    Jon S.
    16 March 2020 @ 19:24
    I'll keep this very simple. Thankyou Raoul. You confirmed my bias with your retirement episodes. You saved many people. Thankyou, thankyou, thankyou.
  • AP
    Antonio P.
    16 March 2020 @ 19:06
    If gold has collapsed, what about bitcoin?
  • PG
    Philippe G.
    16 March 2020 @ 18:30
    Thanks Raoul and RV!!! Interesting times indeed!
  • UJ
    Ulf J.
    16 March 2020 @ 07:54
    Paper Gold will go down but is there a chance for physical Gold and paper price to disconnect, Joined real Vision 2019 right in time this information is not easy to get elsewhere. thanks Raoul
    • JB
      Jonathan B.
      16 March 2020 @ 18:23
      silver and paper silver are disconnected already
  • TZ
    Tibor Z.
    16 March 2020 @ 13:56
    There is a bloodbath on the metals market! Gold is falling and silver is in a free fall! Palladium's fall is epic. Never seen anything like that! Silver looks now bloody cheap. But how long gold can fall? 1300? What are you guys saying?
    • JW
      JW2 W.
      16 March 2020 @ 14:08
      I guess that the underlying dynamic has not changed and that the silver to gold ratio provides opportunity over the medium to longer term so fading buys here sounds like a good option. At least this is how I am interpreting what I read - but I also head Raoul's warning that it's very easy to be a bloody idiot here so tread carefully.
    • SM
      Sergio M.
      16 March 2020 @ 14:31
      $1000 looks very reasonable given the speed in which gold fell from 1700 to 1475
    • DT
      Dennie T.
      16 March 2020 @ 16:53
      I’m interested to hear opinions about why gold and silver are falling.
    • SA
      Saad A.
      16 March 2020 @ 17:11
      I think it is simply about cash at hand to be ready for new opportunities. Don't also forget that many of those who held gold over the past year or two just cashed out on the hope to go back in later. These were my motivations at least
    • JB
      Jonathan B.
      16 March 2020 @ 18:21
      you can't buy silver at the quoted $13/ounce price. Looks like 17 to $18 to buy physical coins (not junk silver as I haven't priced it). Kitco and APMEX are selling out of a lot of metals right now.
  • KL
    Kerrie L.
    16 March 2020 @ 18:06
    Appreciate the “postcard from Cayman”!
  • UA
    UrbanDigs A.
    16 March 2020 @ 15:14
    New viewer here., very interesting stuff. I wonder when you recorded this, was it before yesterdays 5pm Fed bazooka? The end game is the closing chapter of the 2008/2009 story. Interesting to hear you define that next phase and ultimate end game of this experiment that we put ourselves in. Anyway, masssssive fiscal stimulus coming so lets see what equities do. I feel like everything done so far was to get ahead of a major credit or liquidity event. Not that it cant still happen, but if they didn act, it was happening much faster and much harder. So mitigate that risk to the plumbing first. Now fiscal side..any bets on it? Has to be huge, 2trln? 3? 4? Looking forward to watching more vids. Thx
    • CM
      Chris M.
      16 March 2020 @ 16:06
      Nice participation. Believe you will enjoy the service. Go back and watch some of the great past interviews with leading money managers. Think many of them are under the category "The Interview" under shows.
    • CM
      Chris M.
      16 March 2020 @ 16:15
      Just finished video. Filmed before Fed announcement, but added an extra minute to the video after the announcement.
    • ML
      Michele L.
      16 March 2020 @ 16:52
      welcome to the platform! they always put the film date in the last line of the description under the video which is helpful in these fast moving times to know if the latest events are baked in or happened after recording. definitely something I pay more attention to now than I used to!
  • MC
    Marc C.
    16 March 2020 @ 16:40
    Imagine that, MMT in our time! And Trump gets the pleasure of dishing it out. Incredible. But totally agree - the US will do anything to try to maintain the status quo.
  • SS
    Stephen S.
    16 March 2020 @ 16:31
    Thank you Raoul. It's good of you to put the effort into providing insight for the public. My feeling is that the number of people in the world in a position to have a chance at understanding this mess is surprisingly few, and you are one of them. I'm doing my best to overcome the handicap of having been educated and trained at some of the top institutions in the U.S., and understand the new world you and your colleagues describe. Tamara Sheldon
  • WB
    William B.
    16 March 2020 @ 16:09
    Raoul Thanks for your concern. I played the video for my son, and he decided to cancel his flight today. I had been trying to convince him to cancel. Apparently you are more credible than I.
  • SS
    Sam S.
    16 March 2020 @ 16:08
    Thank you Raoul for being the cool head in the chaos!
  • NR
    Nathan R.
    16 March 2020 @ 15:01
    “I don’t want to get into a situation.........that I don’t want to get into.” Best line ever.
  • ly
    lena y.
    16 March 2020 @ 14:58
    Your series about retirement laid out the potential crisis so well! Such a prompt decision to broadcast it then. Hope everyone is paying attention, no illusion! It is coming!
  • DP
    D P.
    16 March 2020 @ 14:49
    The man, the myth, the legend!
  • EM
    Enrico M.
    16 March 2020 @ 14:47
    Thank you!
  • JD
    John D.
    16 March 2020 @ 14:29
    "That role is...keep the fuck away from people." 100%
  • SF
    Scott F.
    16 March 2020 @ 14:03
    Great info in turbulent times! Keep it coming...
  • TZ
    Tibor Z.
    16 March 2020 @ 13:50
    Feels like the RESIDENT EVIL. The world collapses and we are watching it in the front row @ RealVision!
  • TZ
    Tibor Z.
    16 March 2020 @ 13:44
    Thumbs up for the sharp image and audio quality! Its at least 60FPS/SEC. Great quality! Thanks!
  • SW
    Suzanne W.
    16 March 2020 @ 13:26
    Thank you for this!
  • RK
    Ron K.
    16 March 2020 @ 13:26
    Ty so much Rao
  • MJ
    Marius J.
    16 March 2020 @ 13:23
    Big Thanks Raul! I hope we can get short comments often in this period. This is vital info for me!
  • HC
    Hahns C.
    16 March 2020 @ 13:19
    Thanks Again Sir!
  • HC
    Hahns C.
    16 March 2020 @ 13:19
    Remember - there is a "panda" in this Pandemic.
  • CD
    Cheryl D.
    16 March 2020 @ 13:03
    Thanks Raoul!!!!
  • NN
    Nathan N.
    16 March 2020 @ 10:49
    Anyone else having audio issues using the app? Seems like it randomly mutes for 15-20 seconds every few minutes.
    • JA
      Justin A.
      16 March 2020 @ 12:10
      If you are listening at 1.25X or higher this happened to me. When I listen at 1X it is fine.
    • NN
      Nathan N.
      16 March 2020 @ 12:32
      Got it, I think that’s it. Thanks.
  • JL
    James L.
    16 March 2020 @ 12:16
    https://www.finra.org/rules-guidance/notices/20-08
  • DH
    Daniel H.
    16 March 2020 @ 10:59
    How does someone with little to no experience buying/selling/trading (see) get their hands on U.S. dollars, in Australia? ETF?
    • GC
      Gerard C.
      16 March 2020 @ 12:15
      Betashares USD etf
  • JL
    James L.
    16 March 2020 @ 12:13
    Raoul behind the curve. FINRA already released guidance to allow traders and others to work from home without a formal branch management and supervision set up. They will be extremely flexible on practical aspects of supervision in this situation.
  • CK
    C K.
    16 March 2020 @ 11:01
    Raoul, what’s YOUR preferred method of buying bitcoin? Thanks for the amazing and timely content.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      16 March 2020 @ 11:48
      Through an exchange like ItBit, Kraken, etc and preferable when it does fall like a stone immediately after you buy it!
    • AH
      Andrew H.
      16 March 2020 @ 11:56
      Kraken, dont leave it on exchange. Use a hardware wallet like a trezor or a self custody service like CASA hodl. Understand how to secure it!
  • TB
    Terence B.
    16 March 2020 @ 11:49
    How far out are you looking for HYG puts?
  • AM
    Aengus M.
    16 March 2020 @ 11:44
    https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-03-09/finra-concedes-virus-may-impact-wall-street-oversight-of-traders
    • AM
      Aengus M.
      16 March 2020 @ 11:45
      In guidance posted on its website, Finra said that banks might need to alter policies for supervising traders who are relocated to remote offices or working from home because of the spreading virus. The regulator said it would provide temporary “regulatory relief to member firms from some requirements.”
  • JQ
    James Q.
    16 March 2020 @ 11:24
    Raoul why are the rich running to withdraw cash of there's no issue with bank solvency? Ref. Zero Hedge article in last 24hrs
    • JS
      Jim S.
      16 March 2020 @ 11:42
      IMO - people are just trying to be prepared when they are in quarantine and/or probably afraid of what happened in 2008. With China burning notes, digital transactions probably come out of these stronger than ever before.
  • KB
    Kenneth B.
    16 March 2020 @ 11:35
    A simple Thank You Raoul.
  • AP
    Alex P.
    16 March 2020 @ 10:52
    We need a crypto update please
  • Dd
    Daniel d.
    16 March 2020 @ 10:50
    Is there an ETF of these market makers.
  • AA
    Alberto A.
    16 March 2020 @ 10:33
    Thanks Raoul...great update...I recently rewatched the Big Short and will do it again with Margin Call :) Fascinating stuff on the plumbing of liquidity...wondering the names of the big 3, Stay safe.
  • EO
    Elena O.
    16 March 2020 @ 10:12
    I own IG bonds for clients and they are moderately levered. Liquidity completely dried up. I am not selling everything, just proportion to make sure there is no margin call when VaR shock comes from blowing up hedge funds. Anything else you recommend to do?
    • RR
      Robert R.
      16 March 2020 @ 10:25
      Buying CDS protection?
  • DS
    David S.
    16 March 2020 @ 10:19
    lol, like the epilogue... 12 hours later, we need another update.... :-)
  • GP
    Geoff P.
    16 March 2020 @ 09:51
    Thanks Raoul, great work and stay safe.
  • SL
    Shoukuo L.
    16 March 2020 @ 09:44
    Will follow Bridgewater and AQR closely in coming weeks
  • BT
    Brian T.
    16 March 2020 @ 09:34
    Raoul, thank you for everything you do!!! You've been proven very right in your scenarios thus far. I am humbled by the complexity of all the repo market drama that VERY few seem to understand at all-even financial advisors!! I feel that you are correct about MMT happening (????? should =short term inflation, right?) Then again, this is a supply side AND demand side shock of unknown proportions- so, how does one position a guess? Any wild ideas for sinking 1% into a 'what if ' fund and letting it ride - BTC? GLD? UUP? You're the MAN!! thank you so much for giving a perspective and a framework.....
  • AB
    Arawata B.
    16 March 2020 @ 09:06
    Thanks Raoul. Be well.
  • MC
    Michael C.
    16 March 2020 @ 08:54
    Thank you Raoul !
  • JW
    JW2 W.
    16 March 2020 @ 08:11
    Every time I read fintwits or general macro commentary the words of the movie Margin Call reverberate thru my head - I have seen this move more than a dozen times or so, that and The Big Short, are classics for me (with Charlie Wilson's War which is also topical now but in a different way). Stay safe, all the best to RV & extended team. RV provides the framework that help guide our decision making, even if the decision is 'do nothing'.
  • DK
    Damien K.
    16 March 2020 @ 08:07
    You are the most important person out there giving us information. Thanks Raoul to you and your team
  • AC
    Antoine C.
    16 March 2020 @ 08:01
    Loved it thanks Raul
  • CT
    Catherine T.
    16 March 2020 @ 07:46
    Hi Raoul, you mentioned that ED futures will be zero. I am holding the June 2020 call option so would you recommend holding it till June?
  • AC
    Andrew C.
    16 March 2020 @ 07:46
    You sport a nice healthy glow. Clearly, the weather in The Caymans is better than in England!
  • KM
    Klayt M.
    16 March 2020 @ 07:43
    Please I must ask again. Please make this or the “praying for a miracle” video public soon I can share it. Friends are calling me to get my opinion. I’ve been preparing for a fiat endgame for years but most people just don’t get it and don’t understand money in general. Please make this publicly available.
  • HC
    Ho C.
    16 March 2020 @ 05:31
    With whats happening, you will need to a a video a day...... Keep up the good work! I am learned so much from RV and have been in cash and gold since Jan. I am weathering the storm alright. Thanks.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      16 March 2020 @ 07:43
      Just remember, as I said in this video...everyone is in Gold... be careful.
  • JP
    Janusz P.
    16 March 2020 @ 06:12
    Please do more videos like that.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      16 March 2020 @ 07:42
      I think its rare to make a prediction during a video and for it to be fulfilled in the following 30 mons...on a Sunday night!
  • CS
    Colin S.
    16 March 2020 @ 07:42
    Amazing content & up to date analysis, sincerely...Thank You.
  • JP
    Janusz P.
    16 March 2020 @ 06:11
    Raoul, do you think they will close the market or prohibit short selling? Thanks!! Great video.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      16 March 2020 @ 07:13
      They will close the market only because it is illegal to trade from home under FINRA regs and the more people who go home, the less liquid the market is. At some point, they have to close.
  • VH
    Victor H.
    16 March 2020 @ 06:53
    NAILED IT!! Fed rate is officially zero!!