Comments
Transcript
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RCWould like to see more updates or “what we missed” sections. I have to admit, this corroborated much of my feelings at the time and gave me the conviction I needed to subscribe and drip a quick 50k on positioning for a leg down.
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JKWell, I missed all the rallies. Where's the doom? Market has done the exact opposite of what he and every guest has said. I thought there would be a recession even before I saw any of this. I'll be dead before it happens.
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JBcrickets....Cramer has been more correct
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WBAs I understand it: Raoul Pal predicts US Treasury 10 year yield will be 0% Jeffrey Gundlach predicts higher, perhaps 6% Should we look in 1 year or 2?
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LSFantastic reasoning, the only problem is that it's NORMAL for things to look absolutely grim in the month of AUGUST, it happened in 2011 and 2015 and it'll keep happening... an august storm has absolutely no meaning in the big picture because it's normal; it creates the support levels to measure any year-end move... 10 weeks later we're breaking out on equities all over the place... and no one remembers nothing about august... it's always the same movie... nothing is different this time
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JBStill waiting for armageddon, I think this is a 2016 repeat
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LTPal - I doubt it will take 5 years for you to have egg on your face. I wouldn't be surprised if you're come fairly close to calling the bottom. The European economy is slowing & some economies will have/are in recession, but a recession is not a crisis. Italy is in recession and the banks barely reported any new NPL formation in 1Q19 because they have already been to hell and back and spent 10yrs resolving bad loans, and new vintage lending has been hyper conservative. With a few exceptions (e.g. DB), the European banks are in good health. They have a tonne of capital; are very liquid; are profitable and paying dividends. Profits have actually been rising. Bad debts have been falling for years and are mostly dealt with. Europe as a whole also has a 3% current account surplus. Hard to see a liquidity squeeze in a content with massive excess savings! I agree we could have recessions in Europe & parts of Nth Asia, but this is investment-related (trade war uncertainty). If the trade war uncertainty is resolved, pent up investment will happen and the global economy will quickly recover. But sure, we could have recessions. But recessions are not crises! US will probably be the exception - a recession seems unlikely with the consumer & labour market in such good health, consumer debt to GDP down from 100% to 80% over the past decade, and debt servicing costs near long term lows also. You're talking utter nonsense.
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bfI'm a newbie and find this useful...but...what is causing US bond yields to go up ? is someone selling off the bond market ?
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CGVERITAS This is why signed up to this channel today. Thank you Raoul.
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bmDoes this mean that the Eurodolar futures can go over 100 with negative interest rates on the Libor?
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JDYou the man! I'm up 200% in 3 weeks on my eurodollar CALLs. It's literally going to be a 10X trade when rates hit 0. Thanks dude.
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PBHi Raoul, Could you explain how China can have a dollar funding shortage and at the same time hold $1.1 trillion in US treasuries? Thanks!
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BPRaoul, Great video and it is great to see such conviction. Completely agree with virtually everything you discussed in the video and numerous videos in recent months except your view on the USD. While you have been right that the DXY has been higher in 2019 it is up less than 3% this year and has still not re-captured its highs from either 2015 or 2017. It does not seem to be telling the same story as bonds or gold at this moment which have had far bigger moves. It seems that despite the currency weakness in the GBP, AUD and the RMB among other the USD does not want to breakout. After seeing the USD go down in in the flight to safety in the stock market carnage at the end of last year and rebound with global equities in early 2019 it appears the USD is now considered more of a "risk on" asset. The only explanation I could think of for the USD and equities falling in unison was that it was an unwind of positions of those who borrowed in yen or other low yielding currencies to buy USD assets. Any thoughts on the possibility of a repeat of December's behavior in the USD? Thanks Bill
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aaNice video. What's been holding us out of recession is the collapsed in interest rates in the U.S. If money from outside our country is pushing interest rates down then it has to be pushing interest rates up in other countries. In the long run only delays our recession. Can't miss it in the year over year change in M1 for the U.S.. Interest rates usually start falling just before a recession { 11 months or less}. The non-farm payroll, year over year change, peaked in January or 2019. A late cycle stimulus usually lasts no more than a year due to the lack of a positive feed back loop. As you know we are close to a recession and things appear to have stablized or at least look less bad. It's when the year over year change in M1 goes down, again, or flat you know we are going into a recession. Maybe August of 2020 the recession will start since the only growth the economy has left is increasing dept. and that isn't real growth. What concerns me is we could actually be starting a recession this time with most of the interest rate curve already down and little the FED can do.
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VNGreat piece! Thx!! What happens to the Eurodollar trade in case of a liquidity event? I mean if Deutsche Bank goes bust and the EU interbanking market freeze. Wouldn‘t that crush the trade??
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FGConcerning Joe Weisenthal: guy was a boring unopinionated journalist, one of the many media boys that go for a nickel for relaying other people's opinions. That was until a few weeks ago when something 'happened' to the guy. A hormone spike or a 40s crisis maybe. At that point, he decided to propagate controversial opinions. Nothing wrong with that, as long as you do it with the intention of spreading something you believe is valuable. Instead, he went full Monty attacking people -Taleb style but without the intellect- just for the sake of gaining popularity. Sad.
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HCThanks for sticking your neck out Raoul, I admire your courage.
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KLI heard Raoul on The Investors Podcast and he said he likes the short end of the yield curve. I’ve seen a lot of comments about TLT for the bond trade, which has long dated bonds. Is it too late for TLT entry right now? If so what would be the best way to do the bond trade moving forward?
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OTI would add this this risk: as the probability of recession goes up, the probability of President Trump losing goes up as well. I think this dramatically increases the probability of a military confrontation with Iran, because: A- If he loses the next president is likely to go back to Obama deal and there are many powerful forces who wouldn't want to risk that B- The American people tend to rally behind presidents in war time improving chances of him winning C- In recession oil prices drop and Saudi Arabia needs high oil prices for Aramco to go public... just a thought
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YBIf you want to check of RV achieved its goal of putting real financial and economic knowledge out there, look no further. The fact that I, a middle school teacher and a beginner retail investor, was ready for the end of 2018 and the second hal
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SAI don't see a 2008 collapse of the US economy in 2020 simply because minimum wages will be going up 8% in Blue States in 2020 for more than 50% of the US population and Trump is trying to prevent a wholesale transfer of jobs from US to China which was what happened last time the minimum wage was raised in 2009. In 2008-2010 about 5 million US jobs went to China and that broke the US housing market and the economy. Politicians aren't going to allow this to happen again if they want to keep their jobs. One way Trump is doing that is through Mnuchin who keeps giving out very juicy tax breaks and exemptions stemming from the new tax law. The guy has tax gift every quarter. Without a mass scale drain of jobs you can't have a massive recession and deflation particularly if price levels are going higher because minimum wages are increasing. Also if price levels are increasing that makes it easier for corporations to keep paying their debt holders. Raoul keeps trying to scare people off HYG and LQD and I don't get it. If risk free rates go down, credit spreads automatically widen making junk and investment grade more attractive automatically. Corp bonds also have a much lower credit risk than stocks. I would be worried about buybacks and dividends in case of a recession, not so much about corporate bonds. I share his concerns for stocks but not for bonds. Bondholders have first claim on earnings over stockholders. You look at any corp bond default statistics and even from 2008, they are not that bad. Maybe European corp bonds are bad, but HYG and LQD are all American companies and not that bad. If anything, one risk free yields go to zero, credit spreads will be wider and at some point the money from the TLT trade will look for a new home. Well, guess what has better than S&P 500 credit risk (which is AAA) and significantly higher yield? LQD I am not worried in the least bit about the ability of Pepsi, Anheuser Busch, Coke, Johnson & Johnson or whichever other US company to service their debt - even under a Democratic administration. I am worried about them being able to do buybacks and dividends but not service their debt.
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FDCould anyone explain the risk in buying Eurodollars with Canadian dollars
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RHWow! Some schmuck from Bloomberg made a call that there was no alarm? The alarms are still ringing FFF sakes. I'm just a simple no-body who watched the European shell kinking back then with nothing but a $15 a month subscription. I can deduce Bloomberg news is over-priced? Gentlemanly rant Raoul, well done.
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KBRaoul talked about concerns of corporate bonds. I certainly can understand the risk in high-yield corporate bonds. Is there the same concern or risk associated with what is considered high-quality corporate bonds?
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JMRaoul, I liked the 15-16 minute format. Even if you've studied economics some of this stuff can be hard to grasp. On the original "Recession Watch" was 1 hour and 5 minutes. I'm not saying that longer discussion, wasn't worth while, but when you folks produce so much material then it can be overwhelming to say the least. Thanks for your Twitter rants too. They were stellar and rammed home all the points you've been making along the way.. I'll be renewing my subscription when it comes up again.. JM
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RGExcellent stuff Raoul I’m positioned for the events you have described playing out but one thing I don’t understand what you’ve described is how a further issuance of Treasury Bills equals a further drain on liquidity? Lee up the great work anyway.
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JSIt takes incredible courage to put one's reputation on the line like this. 30+ years of studying data tells me he's killed it and I pray we're both 100% wrong.
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BSAwesome, as always. Raoul, wrt to the EZ-banks, if you're interested in a bottom up perspective that arrives at the same conclusion as you, try consider contacting Dr. Markus Krall. He knows most European banks from the inside since 2 decades, designed their risk systems, has forecasted their last 2 year earnings developments correctly and predicts the collaps of the banking system by the end of 2020, when according to his calculations (he's done it for every bank) more than half of the banks will be in the red. Would love to see him interviewed and challenged by RV.
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PJHad (have) house in Cyprus! Please listen to Raoul! Just might save you a few £/$. This time it matters!
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TCThank you Raul for being forthright in your opinions. I would rather listen to someone like you Raul with strong conviction on their bet who puts a stake in the ground, even if wrong. Versus someone who is wishy washy and vague.
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NAWell done, Raoul you don't need to worry about your call on the markets. Its not a case "IF" your scenario will play out,but "WHEN" . IMHO the dam wall has sprung a leak and will completely collapse. Then the RESET. Great work enjoy your Holiday. Thanking you for helping humanity, for >90% are clueless what a sh*%t storm is about to hit.
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RGThank you Sir!
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WWRelax Raoul. The business cycle and recessions have secretly been repealed by the deep state and their vested interests. People haven't got the memo that the the world central bankers are Gods even if they are intelligent idiots with their insane Frankenstein monetary experiments. The ponzi casino markets and banks must be propped up at all costs, wall street and the elites must be backstopped by the ignorant masses in main street via what's left of their bank deposits. The Fed is not independent and lost what was left of its credibility even before the GFC. The Fed are market dependent whores and a full audit of the Fed would undoubtedly uncover them as being almost as deplorable as the CIA in their activities. The evil banksters particularly Goldman 'Sucks' and the financial terrorists that are the US Federal Reserve will do whatever it takes, legal or illegal for their masters.
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CHRaoul here doing the gutsy, responsible thing and calling it the way he sees it. It’s trivially easy to criticise; it’s tough to tell the hard truth in such a public way. Well done, and thank you.
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SSHeartfelt struggle to lead us to water, but some don't want to drink. Raoul---you don't need to qualify all the jerks out there, as you've always presented and shared in a humble well spoken manner. The fake news is really good at not reporting what's really going on in Europe. RV is one of our blessed resources for which no apology is ever needed. How many critics stand up and say they were wrong to criticize you after they mess it up? NONE. Hypocrites. No downside in your presentation if we prepare and it's not right. If it is right, we may win big. Maybe a few trade ideas to go along with this. Kindest of appreciation!
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PNSo, I guess my question is this. What would have to happen for Raoul P's call to be wrong? This has gone on way longer than I would have thought was possible, but the rabbits keep coming out of hats.
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CSRaoul, Cyprus in 2013 was no joke, We were in the dark for two weeks with the banks closed and no way of knowing if they would reopen or what was left in them - or which past transactions had actually cleared. We then had capital controls (with the central bank checking each transfer request individually and only allowing through what was 'absolutely essential'), cash point controls on daily withdrawals, and private business frozen as nobody was paying invoices. Even the government stopped paying invoices and cut the rent it was paying to private landlords by 30% (f**k the contracts), everybody else followed suit while landlords still owed to the bank, importers couldn't get LCs to import the cans you were buying - no one would take an LC from a Cy bank - not funny But Cy came back and I'm not getting caught up in the next shitstorm Let me ask you this: Inflation - It seems tariffs are inflationary which could help erode the US debt mountain somewhat, but what then? Can't raise rates in this mess! It seems to me that we have a ketchup bottle situation in inflation. We have been banging on the ketchup bottle for a decade and now that we are convinced that nothing can come out, it will splatter all over us...
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bmIs it possible for Eurodollar futures to go over 100 with negative Libor rates?
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WCthat was fucking nuts
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HvRaoul - thanks for staying the course. Real Vision and it’s fantastic team is the best thing that has happened to modern economic-financial global media. Thank you for your years of study and dedication, not staying retired on some island getting all tanned and pudgy, and getting back in the game to truly reach out & educate the average hardworking citizen. Drop Snippy Joe; he’s a dullard and mannerless and not worth the bandwidth. As for calling it like you see it, that’s crystalized from all your years of experience and hard-knocks. It doesn’t matter if it doesn’t play out within your narrative because NOBODY KNOWS how it’s gonna go. It depends on Xi, Trump, Legarde, Powell, Abe, the EU and some black swan circling in the wings. We folks choose our leaders based on their experience, foresight and integrity and we’re listening because we can see it unfolding plainly through your eyes. It makes sense. That’s your gift - intelligible narration.. And that’s why we are here - to hear what you have say. Thank you for that. Have a great holiday; we’ve watched you put in a “shit-ton” of work over the last month with the amazing Recession Watch series. Sleep in, eat paella, and go for a sail. Hannah
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AGAbsoute legend
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bbi opened a futures account to try the eurodollar trade but its very confusing these futures contracts. 2 contracts give me over 1 million notional value but if LIBOR goes to 0 it seems I hardly make anything, like 17k. when you make futures recommendations for futures would it be possible to give an example of what a 1 contract trade costs and could make so neophytes like me can gauge better how many contracts they actually would like to buy?
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TRRaoul, it seems like you have moderated your view on gold somewhat (?) I.e. that your are not any longer certain that it is bound (initially) to get depressed by the rising dollar... Am I correct in this observation? --- Secondly, thanks for making such a bold call. Don't mind the people who say - he cried wolf earlier. The implication of this scenario would be so immense that it would be nuts to take precautions now.
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RIWho the heck cares about Europe? Just stop talking about it. All that matters is the USA!
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KBRaoul - what would you recommend as asset allocation for a medium level net worth investor?
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SpHow can an Australian retail investor get access to eurodollar futures or options?
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AANUGT if you really want to go all in on this thesis. I’m not all in yet but toes are dipped. Should be fun.
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DRRegarding the capital funding/insolvency problem that Eurozone banks face, expect that the ECB will massively purchase bank debt and equities with "printed" Euros. Basically, copy the Fed's playbook a decade ago to prop up banks to the financial detriment of John Q Public who hasn't a clue what's going on. In turn, this fall the Fed will buy US Treasuries this fall to fund the insolvent United States government. Numerous smaller countries in the world to invest in which are in much better financial and fundamental economic condition than the bloody Eurozone and US. Not to mention the gold and some other real assets as you know.
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HASobering. I believe your assessment of the probabilities is spot on, though I hope you are wrong. I fear the world is primed for social unrest. Can anyone imagine how bail outs, or bail ins would be received in today’s social climate? Long dollars, gold, and bonds. Short Joe Weisenthal.
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KLThanks for the update Raoul! I had no idea that happened in Spain. Should people get real assets instead of sitting on cash? I’m thinking of doing the ED trade. Just worried I’ll screw it up since I’ve never place a futures trade before.
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DMWhen you say dollar strength, are comparing it to the yuan and euro? What about the Yen or Swiss Franc?
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NREagles don’t hunt flies. Joe Weisenthal is a fly, stay with the eagles Raoul.
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MIRaoul great call looks like you will be right. I wish you are wrong on the doom loop. Too many folks will suffer if true.
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DRAccording to subscriber-only sources, the Fed is likely to resume QE in Sept-Oct, which we're not hearing much about yet on RealVision or the MSM, as the Fed must monetize those massive Treasury requirements and the US gov't over-spending & debt, an essentially bankrupt nation, in the style of Weimar Germany a century ago. Call it QE or MMT or whatever, but it's Zimbabwe-like as the US has by far the worst twin deficits - financial and trade - in human history, living far far far beyond its means for far too long. A reckoning awaits soon and it'll be ugly-ugly-ugly for US people and some others. Gold shall indeed be the last man standing. The country which in fact possesses 83% of the world's physical gold (including both its massive sovereign gold reserves and large PM holdings by its people), as was accidentally leaked briefly in a classified internal document in Mandarin in Singapore last month before being quickly covered up, will emerge as the masters and rule-makers of the brave new world post crisis... Guess who? (Hint: it's not the Bankrupt States of America nor any of its so-called "allies"). Remember the golden rule, "He who owns the gold makes the rules". Little wonder Ray Dalio was so bullish on China in his latest personal public release a couple days ago. A very bright man and the most successful money manager on the planet, who hits the mark repeatedly. A must-read.
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WMGreat stuff Raoul and I don't think it matters whether you are 100% right, 50% right will be bad enough. Other folks I subscribe to like Martin Armstrong and MSA plus other authors I respect like Diego Parrilla, Michael Lewitt and many others. All seem certain we are at a place in the financial world where the risks are legion and the ability to fight the fallout in a united manner never weaker. Predictions vary a bit in terms of what will be the best investments of course. But being very close to retirement and with half my wealth in pensions and IRAs I am very worried indeed. I read geopolitical and economic history prodigiously and sense, with all that is going on everywhere, that a few low risk bets might just mitigate horrendous losses.
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JFExcellent. Thanks.
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PCThis Recession series was excellent and this update is the Cherry on Top. Thank you Raoul
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MHI love love love love this! Appreciate you Raol!!
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JOWay to go Raoul “coach” !
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WWPassion...I love it..."truth in finance"...more love...there IS a war on truth in North America for sure. I'll be heading for the Mediterranean for 3 weeks in about a month...and I'm kinda nervous I'll miss any action and also nervous just to be there...guess I'll load up on Euros before the trip. Thanks for your great work...
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EPShort Joe Weisenthal.-the best trade for 2019 thanks raoul - you are no .1
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JVAmazing. Thanks for sharing your thoughts Raoul. I completely second what you said about the European debt crisis in 2012. Here in Scandinavia it wasn’t a big deal, but we felt the effects by the sheer number of Spanish people that came here to find work - same as Greek, Portuguese, etc. A Spanish friend I have came from a wealthy family and lived off the family estate. In 2014 most of the family’s property was seized by the government with close to no compensation. He was forced to move to Sweden to find work and now works night shifts in a warehouse. His education in Spanish history wasn’t of much help in the Swedish job market... Amazing how that whole crisis was swept under the rug by ECB magic (and thus launching the huge interest rate convergence trade). Problem is that it was only possible because the bailed out nations were relatively small compared to the eurozone as a whole. Like the US bailing out Puerto Rico. It’s gonna be an entirely different matter to bail out the Italian and French banks. And next time it will have to be done in an even more contentious political climate. Lagarde has her work cut out for her if this plays out in any way close to what Raoul is saying. I am knee deep in gold and silver mining stocks and options on eurodollar futures. The Dec 19 and Mar 20 expiries have gone up seven fold in the past few weeks.. also holding some Jun 20 and will add Sep 20. These things have great convexity and this could be just the beginning. Short CNHJPY still looks good - the JPY will rise violently if things really get ugly. Short EURUSD is currently a must have. The ECB will have to be extremely dovish in their Sep meeting and will have to invent some really strange stuff to keep things together. There will be new acronyms to learn! And what about the knock-on effects of all this? Just mind blowing.
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TSThank you for having the courage to speak up in times like this. I’d rather be on alert and have nothing happen.... than to have something happen and get blind sided.
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MFI completely agree with Raul on Europe and what happened around 2012. Completely hammered the Spanish, businesses, people and banks. Only last year managed to sell up property after 5 years on the market, miraculously. Have taken all funds out of any Spanish banks. I am a Brit but half Spanish, have spent a lot of time there and you do see the side that is not widely reported. Whenever a woman is positioned in a leading political or economic role, rather than being cheered by that (which I know I should, being a woman), I hear alarm bells that shit is going down...
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TWOh and Joe Weisenthal is indeed a registered idiot, MSM bought and paid for. I wouldn't think about him again for a nanosecond.
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TWRaoul - Bravo. I'm constantly on the guard against confirmation bias; it is probably our single worst enemy. But I agree with you completely. I sincerely hope we're both wrong (bring on the eggs), and that everyone lives happily ever after. Between Lagarde (you can't make these names up, Madoff etc) and the smug mugshot I saw today of Bullard ... well, I too am ready for holiday. Time for the rum drinker to take over ... segue ... I had had the pleasure recently of spending a day with my wife on a desolate beach called La Playa de Los Destiloderos ... across the waves was a tower on the Count of Lichtenstein's compound. I imagined the rum runners of days past; they at least had skin in the game. But I realized the Count of Lichtenstein and his ilk will be fine. There is reason we still go to see Victor Hugo in the theater, too bad few attendees realize why. At least those in Hong Kong went to class. Enjoy your holiday.
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NSJoe Wiesenthal is a fucking idiot
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SGgood stuff to know.... Re Chrisiting Lagard/ECB I vote for -8% rates or maybe -20%... if "we" are going to be stupid and try stuff that only works in academia why not go balls to the wall... after all is -2% is "good" surely -20% is 10X better right?
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MGBravo Raoul thanks for the update. I never comment on twitter but it gets under my skin when people attack others for their views or play the I told you so game on wrong calls. Let’s not be so damn stupid and realize we’re in a profession that forces us to project in to the future to make our living. I just hope these assholes on the internet don’t ever get you to a point where you walk away. Please continue to share your thoughts because whether your right or wrong about this current call I could really care less. I come here because you push me to think fluidly and I admire the balls you have to stick your neck out there and make these big market calls. Thanks again for all that you do. Sincerely, The small trader that admires those that are trying to make this profession a more level playing field.
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SSSimply exceptional analysis! Raoul, you're always ...errr ...ahead of the curve. Thank you again.
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DSAlthough the discussion is about recession probabilities, the real paradyme shift is from a world were CBs could make a difference to a world where they can just try to provide liquidity. This is a new investment environment. Gold, bonds, safe havens are still the correct bets, but the ground under our feet will never be the same. This is not a disaster, but a different world. DLS
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PWGood stuff...............getting my tin-foil hat ready!
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TSThank you for your candor, Raoul. Whether all of this plays out on the tape is left to be seen but no one can argue you're not here trying to help small offices and retail investors alike.
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SLthx for the update, I really like the content !
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BW"Things are now in motion that cannot be undone" - Gandalf
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SUThanks so much 😀
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LHThank you.
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ARThank you for the update. So dollar is getting stronger due to global dollar shortage. It looks that Fed can provide dollar swap for Euro to ECB, It been done at least one time before, during 2008 crisis. It looks that everyone needs weaker dollar, and they will do "whatever it takes " That would make dollar trade, loosing trade.
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SHRaoul Takes big balls to lay it all out there. Right or wrong it is much appreciated and duly noted. Thank you.
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ADHi Raoul, thank you for the series and “sticking your neck out” I followed the tweetspat with JW and even though I like Joe’s work I now get why you are so passionate and may be a little hurt. Made me think though- what would make you decide that as in 2012 the regional problems (dire as they were/are) did not pierce US economy and send it into death spiral? Strong opinions loosely held, right? What are the mitigants in your view? Weakening US dollar? CPI? Inside of the stock market? What can break the thesis? That’s what I am thinking about, you enjoy your well earned vacation though. Cheers, Anton.
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FBRaoul,I sincerely appreciate the candor and straight forward commentary. This is extremely uncharacteristic of the financial news services(the reason I watch very little). Please resist the temptation to popularize the information sacrificing the honesty and integrity of the extraordinary work you all do at Real Vision.
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WBAren't we at the point where EVERYONE understands negative rates don't work? Why are we so convinced that we keep going down the same path? Hell, I actually believe raising rates in Europe would probably be more stimulative than lowering them. It seems to me that some version of MMT will likely take the place of the next QE. I guess the issue is how long it takes to get to that point...
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FDLooking forward for liquidations in $TLT and gold! :)
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PMLove ya bud
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JMRaul, Thank you for the update and for the great investment advice. Needed a little patience but it's starting to payoff. I have been following some of your investment recommendations - gold, US treasuries, & USDs. I am doing extremely well! Joe Weisenthal?....who the hell is he....oh don't bother!
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EPThanks Raoul, I and the wife are at the cusp of retirement and the information you are sharing has given me tools I would have never of found before Real Vision. The information available is invaluable. Preservation of capital and purchasing power at our age is crucial. Again, Thank You.
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DKWoah, Ed Harrison works at Real Vision now? Nice!
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lDHAHAHAHAHAHAHA i nearly wet my self when Raoul admits that he had to buy canned food & rice - id of moved country too, i also draw the line at canned food - i now know your a marks & sparks man - thats comment has tickled me ...but in all seriousness thanks for the heads up with this video, its not a nice feeling that folks maybe out there unaware what could happen to them in their personal lives . keep up the good work RV - what s it going to be campbells soup or canned caviar ? LOL
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PVGreat work. Thanks. I'm a simple guy and your team's work and efforts have made me money this year and I thank you. Paul
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DJVery well done Raoul, very well done indeed.
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AYThis was incredible. Thanks Raoul for your work you have literally changed my life. I've learned how to think from you and it's a gift that keeps giving. Enjoy a well earned holiday.
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AMVery well said. I was pondering the meaning of negative interest rates the other day and rested on the idea that a negative interest rate is an example fiscal policy dressed up as monetary policy. I wonder if others might share the same view. I guess it's reasonable to expect escalation of social disorder in a region of the world where fiscal policy is being dressed up as monetary policy and being implemented across the entire region where each nation within the region has its own fiscal policy presumably based on a democratic vote. Lagarde scares the crap out of me.
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BMThank you Raoul. I find these updates incredibly helpful...as they provide me with clarity on my investment path.
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SBI was running a business in Argentina through the 2000 crisis and saw unbelievable things. Massive lay off's; line up's outside banks that never opened for weeks; regular middle class people selling their possessions in the street in the hope of raising enough money to feed their kids; savings wiped out; property sold for cents on the dollar. It was awful. Since that time, I have always been super concerned about where the QE experiment would lead to and stunned by how complacent people are in the U.S., that thought such a thing can never happen here. Well done Raoul for waking up at least some of us.
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SSLooks like Raoul has a bit of red eye. He needs a well deserved rest. Enjoy your holidays! Thank you for the ED trade idea. Made quite a bit of the Dec2020 Call options with 99 Strike.
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DVLong US bonds has been doing really well this year but I feel that those going in there now missed most of the upside already. Bond liquidity has me worried as I imagine many are buying the bond ETFs as opposed to buying an actual bond until maturity. Demand > Supply makes the price go up. But if the recession hits and it hits hard buying into these corporate bond ETF's might be a false positive strategy, you think your money is safe while it's not.
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NPRaoul is spot on about Greece, spent 6 weeks with family there in 2017. The last European banking crisis destroyed an already fragile economy. They still have great people, food and scenery, but any hope of prosperity has disappeared, and the country is still dealing with it today.
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SSThings are starting to get ugly at General Electric following Madoff Whistleblower Harry Markopolos' accounting report.
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JHIt takes balls to stick your neck out and say this. Well done mate.
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DvJapanese and European banks are breaking long time lows, signalling orthodox ahead. will this have any influence on Eurodollars, as these deposits are held at banks outside the US?
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AWJust wanted to say thanks to Raoul and Real Vision team for all the education and sharing through the platform. Have lived through the Asian Financial Crisis as a adolescent and though I do not know how it compares to whats happening in Europe now, it was day after day of suicide articles at some point in South East Asia. Total respect for Raoul and team for sticking their necks out just to inform us based on facts and non-sensationalist manner.
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DRTotal respect Raoul - no b******* , saying it how it is and with massive passion for the average person in the street .
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MBSimply tremendous.
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DHRaw, intelligent, timely, based on facts to derive well-considered potential outcomes. Raoul, I fucking love your videos and analysis. When these massive junctures occur, as they are right now on so many charts, like you said on Twitter one has to sit up and pay attention. Wankers like Joe don't seem to have empathy for the plight of people in Europe (especially the poor bastards in Cyprus). One day he may find his U.S. bank accounts frozen taking a 20% clip off his life's savings so he can bail-in the insolvent banks. That seems to be the new IMF playbook.
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APYou can also add Argentina to your assessment Raoul...
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NHThank you very much for these scary insights. If rates really go into seriously negative territory, what asset class is there left for European retirees to shift their assets into? This is something that worries me.
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SBI just want thank Raoul and the RV team for all the awesome work you do. It’s not just about making money. By protecting people’s wealth and saving them from financial hardship you guys are actually saving lives!!!!! You guys are truely lifesavers 🙏
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nsCanned food and Generators in Javea now that’s a stretch for the bounds of credibility. Bankia now that I believe.
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BHI would like to know is there any concrete evidence that China is short of dollars in addition to gold story?
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JHGreat stuff, Raoul - thank you.
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NCI respect bravery. Thanks Raol
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TJThanks Raoul. DLS said it superbly well! You and the whole team at Real Vision have been a breath of fresh air since you first launched and have helped so many of us get a better understanding of the probabilities (as you correctly quote) of how markets might play out. By comparison the sound bite offerings and establishment biased opinions of the presenters and most studio experts of the two mainstream financial channels are a waste of valuable time! Real Vision is the future for independent serious market and economic analysis. Have a great holiday!
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DSThank you for communicating this ASAP. All indications I can see confirm your urgency. I am on holiday in the Swiss Alps for a month. I will sleep well since RVTV prepared me. I know it will be difficult for you to be on holiday, but it is also necessary for your health. Thanks for all your help. DLS
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JSGood Man! Thank you Raoul
RAOUL PAL: I didn't think about two weeks off the recession watch, I'd have to do a Recession Watch update. The things are moving fast. And I had that sense in recession watch that things were going to start accelerating in August. And it's typical because I'm just about to go on holiday. Normally, when I go on holiday, all hell breaks loose. But in macro terms, the technical term for what's going on right now is a shit ton. There is so much going on, I can't quite get the grips with how much is moving.
We've seen the Chinese tariffs situation, we've walked apart from that. The Chinese have allowed their currency to go through the seven level, that's a really important thing. It means that the dollar strength story is in play. Yes, it's a little bit choppy right now but focus, look at things like the Australian dollar. Things I've mentioned before in the previous pieces, that's now falling like a knife through butter. We're seeing the same with a Korean won, which is like the Asian weakness trade, the global trade issues. That's all underway now. And the Korean won is starting to accelerate in its weakness.
That knock on effect of the dollar rising, yeah, it's a bit choppy in the Euro. But it'll probably play out. There's a lot of people that have Euro funding trades on against things like Mexican peso, all that needs to get washed out first before the Euro can start falling, or come on to Europe in a minute because it's a big part of the story that's developing. But in Asia, that data is incredibly weak. So, some of the bounces that we're fearing, they're going by the wayside. I do not see any recovery in the data, I see further deterioration of conditions, particularly in Asia.
We're seeing it in China, we're seeing it in Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, all over the place. The tensions in Hong Kong don't help either. They're ratcheting up things even further, the risks are that America says something about Hong Kong status as a sovereign territory. That would be an enormous issue. Everybody's fixated, are the Chinese going to walk into Hong Kong? This is something on Real