The Sovereign Debt Trade of the Decade

Published on
July 23rd, 2020
Duration
24 minutes

Up Next

Related Videos

Julian Brigden — Markets, Monetary Policy, and Society: A Major Inflection Point
The Expert View ·

Julian Brigden — Markets, Monetary Policy, and Society: A Major Inflection Point

Has Everything Changed? with Raoul Pal
The Expert View ·

Has Everything Changed? with Raoul Pal

Juliette Declercq’s Biggest Macro Trends
The Expert View ·

Juliette Declercq’s Biggest Macro Trends

The Dollar Endgame
The Expert View ·

The Dollar Endgame

Volatility Madness and the Fed Put
The Expert View ·

Volatility Madness and the Fed Put

Banking on Bitcoin
The Expert View ·

Banking on Bitcoin

Active vs. Passive SAAS Arbitrage
The Expert View ·

Active vs. Passive SAAS Arbitrage

How Will Urban Decline Affect Real Estate?
The Expert View ·

How Will Urban Decline Affect Real Estate?

George Goncalves: Why the Fed Wants to Avoid Yield Curve Control
The Expert View ·

George Goncalves: Why the Fed Wants to Avoid Yield Curve Control

Bitcoin and Time: The Economics of Absolute Scarcity
The Expert View ·

Bitcoin and Time: The Economics of Absolute Scarcity

Risk-On or Risk-Off: Preparing For the Next Market Crash
The Expert View ·

Risk-On or Risk-Off: Preparing For the Next Market Crash

How “Economic Scarring” and Low Rates Have Ravaged Quant Investors
The Expert View ·

How “Economic Scarring” and Low Rates Have Ravaged Quant Investors

Italy: Too Big to Save?
The Expert View ·

Italy: Too Big to Save?

Lyn Alden: Macro Maelstrom
The Expert View ·

Lyn Alden: Macro Maelstrom

The Grand Supercycle Correction
The Expert View ·

The Grand Supercycle Correction

Infinity Phase 3: The Post-COVID Paradigm
The Expert View ·

Infinity Phase 3: The Post-COVID Paradigm

Listen to the Bond Market: Major Risks Remain
The Expert View ·

Listen to the Bond Market: Major Risks Remain

Finding Opportunity in Junior Miners
The Expert View ·

Finding Opportunity in Junior Miners

What’s Next for the Dollar?
The Expert View ·

What’s Next for the Dollar?

Oil and Energy: Updating a Sector in Flux
The Expert View ·

Oil and Energy: Updating a Sector in Flux
24

The Sovereign Debt Trade of the Decade

The Expert View ·
Featuring Lee Robinson

Published on: July 23rd, 2020 • Duration: 24 minutes

Calling Venezuelan sovereign debt distressed is an understatement. Lee Robinson, founder of Altana Wealth, argues that the downtrodden bonds could present investors the opportunity of the decade. Robinson walks viewers through why these bonds that have gone from par to 10 cents on the dollar provide massive upside – 800% to 1000% potential returns - should sanctions on one of the most natural resource-rich nations on earth change with the coming US Presidential election. Robinson argues that there could be trillions of dollars in potential upside for the coming decade in the country that has suffered so much over the last decade. Filmed July 20, 2020.

Comments

Transcript

  • wk
    wai k.
    28 July 2020 @ 08:58
    1 0
    those who buy at 35 think it will be 70, buy at 15 think i will be 30. Timimg is key
  • CL
    Claudio L.
    28 July 2020 @ 08:23
    0 1
    If Trump wins a second turn will increase the probability for a regime change rather than a Biden presidency.
  • MH
    Martin H.
    24 July 2020 @ 01:38
    3 12
    Not exactly useful for "Essential Level" Subscribers?! I'm questioning some of the editorial decisions on classification of material lately. Give me stuff I can use please!
    • nn
      null n.
      24 July 2020 @ 07:30
      2 0
      One could buy them in Interactive Brokers up until last year, clip size was $1000. They don't accept trades anymore due to sanctions
    • MH
      Martin H.
      27 July 2020 @ 03:52
      0 0
      8 thumbs down, from the staff no doubt. Meanwhile useful stuff like Weldon on Gold is next level up... more crappy editorial decisions.
    • AF
      Andre F.
      27 July 2020 @ 08:44
      1 1
      Jason, how is this not useful for Essential level subscribers!? Jason the thumbs down are from your fellow participants/subscribers at RV, not the freakin' staff. This investment idea is as useful to you as you want it to be. RV shouldn't be a torture. If it is then something somewhere is wrong. The Weldon video being "unavailable" and this one being available is actually a gift. This trade here is the one that needs explaining. No one is talking about this opportunity in Venezuela. Many, many people are talking about Gold, meaning if you can't listen to Weldon there are still plenty of other sources to get info from on Gold investing and the gold market. I was the ninth person to thumb you down and I don't work at RV. Chin up Jason!
    • MH
      Martin H.
      28 July 2020 @ 02:03
      0 0
      It is a completely inaccessible trade and really pretty unsuitable @ entry level where as gold is that much more accessible. RV stated out good but has slipped with this last restructure, I'm getting less out of it. Also they basically ignore you when you bring up issues or suggestions. Pretty typical of service these days so why so I expect different. I guess I will vote with my feet @ the end of the year.
  • JP
    Jean P.
    24 July 2020 @ 14:26
    2 0
    Like the Batista Bonds... people still waiting in line since fidel.. good luck
    • AF
      Andre F.
      27 July 2020 @ 08:16
      0 0
      Castro is going to take over Venezuela? Wow!
  • WB
    William B.
    26 July 2020 @ 01:21
    1 7
    Is there a morality? Does morality exist? Is everything moral? Is it OK to make money off of starving people? As I tell my children, is it OK to torture our dog?
    • LR
      Lee R. | Contributor
      26 July 2020 @ 16:29
      2 0
      Hi William, am not sure that buying sovereign bonds in secondary market from fund managers and private banks is helping or harming the people of that sovereign. i appreciate that renegotiating new bonds post sanctions could be seen as negative towards the people but ultimately bond holders will be getting less back than they initially lent to the country to that country's benefit.
  • SM
    Sebastien M.
    26 July 2020 @ 15:54
    0 1
    i can see how you get back to par, ie 100-300pct but domt understand how yiu can make more than that. is that through currencies? or stocks.?
  • sc
    sung c.
    25 July 2020 @ 17:40
    3 3
    Why not just invest in BTC if you want to take that much of a gamble?
  • DS
    David S.
    23 July 2020 @ 09:54
    9 7
    The coronavirus through the lense of science shows the incompetence of populist leaders in countries like Venezuela, Brazil, the UK and the US. What was implicit to many becomes explicit to all but the true believer. DLS
    • LS
      Lemony S.
      25 July 2020 @ 16:16
      1 0
      Globalist control scheme? Those listening to them are not even true believers, they are pawns. To the detriment of the world economy and to enrich the already elite-weighted divide.
  • PS
    Paul S.
    25 July 2020 @ 02:51
    2 5
    "why are the US sanctions on Venezuela? Is it because they're connected to Cuba?" How about a corrupt govt suppressing it's citizens, skyrocketing hyperinflation, power cuts and shortages of food and medicine. But never mind, chance to make some money. Geez!
  • DJ
    D J.
    24 July 2020 @ 17:57
    2 0
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-bonds/u-s-interactive-brokers-halts-purchases-of-venezuela-debt-idUSKCN1BC5A5
  • DJ
    D J.
    24 July 2020 @ 17:43
    0 0
    This is an obvious trade
  • MC
    Melvin C.
    23 July 2020 @ 12:39
    1 0
    Very interesting video. Other than the difficulty of buying the bonds via conventional (mostly US) brokers, even if I am in Europe, I am quite concerned about that statute of limitations that is mentioned... if you get that wrong could you lose your investment? Does Altana Wealth offer a way to get into this kind of trade, or are there any suggestions for a professionally-managed fund for a non-US resident? Or any other way to get into the trade and manage the statute of limitations risk?
    • LR
      Lee R. | Contributor
      24 July 2020 @ 06:35
      0 0
      hi lee robinson here, yes we have a fund vehicle - contact me on lee.robinson@altanawealth.com if you want the details
  • MD
    Matt D.
    23 July 2020 @ 23:53
    1 0
    Thanks Lee - fascinating. Loved it. Will watch with interest.
  • SS
    Simeon S.
    23 July 2020 @ 19:42
    3 0
    Iranian oil was also a good trade at some point — But I hope you don’t need to travel to the US while waiting for this trade to work
  • JA
    John A.
    23 July 2020 @ 16:31
    6 1
    Not a trade I would ever get involved in, I'm too small. But I appreciate hearing about these sorts of things. It is interesting to hear about these sorts of trade ideas as an educational piece - if not as an actual play I would be interested in.
  • JM
    John M.
    23 July 2020 @ 16:27
    3 0
    Lee always presents some interesting ideas. Good stuff!
  • JK
    John K.
    23 July 2020 @ 06:28
    6 0
    Where do you even purchase Venezuelan bonds?
    • AB
      Alastair B.
      23 July 2020 @ 07:10
      4 0
      Yeah, it’s not like they trade them on Etoro
    • ES
      Edward S.
      23 July 2020 @ 07:37
      2 0
      Yeah what broker/platform would you need to use?
    • OG
      Oliver G.
      23 July 2020 @ 08:43
      3 0
      Through a Private Bank/ Broker with little to no connection to the US. I am with a German Broker (Lynx) which uses the Interactive Brokers platform so I can't trade them. A Swiss Private Bank or a European Broker should do the trick.
    • CK
      C K.
      23 July 2020 @ 11:24
      0 0
      Oliver, out of curiosity, why do you trade via a broker that uses IB rather than trade via IB directly?
    • Mt
      Miami t.
      23 July 2020 @ 15:11
      1 0
      IB is not accepting orders in the bonds.
  • KD
    Kelley D.
    23 July 2020 @ 14:17
    25 0
    Even though I will not trade this, I very much enjoy Real Vision bringing unique trade idea, as I am really interested in the thought process, more than the trade..
  • SN
    Scott N.
    23 July 2020 @ 13:29
    7 0
    Is there a creative retail trade to play this trade?
  • DP
    Divyesh P.
    23 July 2020 @ 13:11
    2 0
    Good luck finding a broker.
  • SB
    Stewart B.
    23 July 2020 @ 09:56
    9 1
    Nice one. Do you have the ISIN for any of these so that I can watch them?
    • CK
      C K.
      23 July 2020 @ 12:06
      3 0
      I've found a few (but haven't double-checked all of them): VEV00014CJD9, VEV00014CEV2, VEV00014CHH4, VEV00014CJC1, VEV00014CIY7, VEV00014CJG2, VEV00014CIZ4, VEV00014CJH0, VEV00014CJJ6, VEV00014CJI8, VEV00014CJK4, VEV00014CJN8, VEV00014CJR9, VEV00014CJL2, VEV00014CJM0, VEV00014CJS7, VEV00014CJO6, VEV00014CJT5, VEV00014CJP3, VEV00014CJU3, VEV00014CJX7, VEV00014CKA3, VEV00014CJZ2, VEV00014CJV1, VEV00014CJY5, VEV00014CKB1, VEV00014CJW9, VEV00014CKC9, VEV00014CKD7, VEV00014CKG0, VEV00014CKI6, VEV00014CKJ4, VEV00014CKL0, VEV00014CKK2, VEV00014CKM8, VEV00014CKO4, VEV00014CKN6
  • OG
    Oliver G.
    23 July 2020 @ 08:46
    1 0
    All the Venezuelan Government Bonds I checked are trading at around 33-35, I guess Mr. Robinson is referring to the PDVSA (Petroleos de Venezuela) bonds which are trading around 3-5 cents on the dollar. I think its important to make that distinction.
    • OG
      Oliver G.
      23 July 2020 @ 08:49
      3 0
      Actually I got that wrong, the price is 3-5 for the government bonds as well.
    • SB
      Stewart B.
      23 July 2020 @ 09:57
      0 0
      Do you have an ISIN?

Chapters

  1. 00:00:39
    Asymmetric Trade in Sovereign Debt
  2. 00:09:45
    How do you get exposure to these bonds?
  3. 00:12:02
    What are the major risks?
  4. 00:15:43
    What is the timeline?
  5. 00:17:31
    Who is investing in Venezuelan debt?
  6. 00:20:44
    What geopolitical factors play into US sanctions on Venezuela?
  7. 00:22:03
    What is your biggest takeaway?