Bubbles, Monopolies, and Copycats

Published on
January 12th, 2021
Duration
76 minutes

Mission Creep Impossible: The Impact of the Federal Reserve’s Exploding Balance Sheet


Bubbles, Monopolies, and Copycats

The Interview ·
Featuring Byrne Hobart and Taylor Pearson

Published on: January 12th, 2021 • Duration: 76 minutes

Byrne Hobart, writer at The Diff, joins Taylor Pearson, co-chief investment officer of Mutiny Fund, for a wide-ranging discussion on everything from monopolization within technological companies to "Straussian" readings of Jerome Powell and Anthony Fauci to what the 800-year chart of real interest rates indicates about the history of capital markets. Hobart scrutinizes what the tendency of technological firms to mimic the major winners in the space means for the future of technological innovation and the venture capital industry as well as the capital that tracks it. After Pearson asks Hobart about the notion of "optionality" as applied to Airbnb, they discuss their risk/reward analysis of Bitcoin as well as the recent companies that went public via special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs). Filmed on January 8th, 2021. Key learnings: This interview contains many contradictory propositions such as the notion that bubbles can be useful and that citizens living during the fall of an empire have a better quality of life than those that lived during its rise. Hobart argues that SPACs as a whole offer little upside and that Bitcoin has a favorable (if skewed) risk/reward profile.

Comments

Transcript

  • RM
    Russell M.
    14 January 2021 @ 22:52
    Idea packed tremendously interesting insights! Love to see him again. Hobart talks very fast. Would benefit from 3/4 speed. Pearson's mike sound quality was muffled.
  • DD
    Dmitry D.
    13 January 2021 @ 08:41
    Somewhat surprised to see the number of negative comments. I for one enjoyed it immensely and came away with a lot of interesting ideas and things to ponder, will definitely rewatch again after I've had time to digest it a bit. However I suppose flow and structure could have been better and this is what perhaps put some people off.
    • CD
      Carl D.
      13 January 2021 @ 19:42
      lots of uninvestigated grand sweeping statements, I feel like you could take any 30 seconds of this interview and spend 20 minutes unpacking why it's either right or wrong. I felt like I was in a tornado
  • JM
    Jason M.
    13 January 2021 @ 13:16
    great interview
  • PM
    Paul M.
    12 January 2021 @ 17:56
    This is the first Real Vision video I’ve seen where I feel I actually know less after watching than I knew before.
    • MJ
      Matt J.
      13 January 2021 @ 10:04
      As in the material was presented so badly that it has obfuscated things? Or that it's so earth-shattering that you've questioned your assumptions?
  • MJ
    Matt J.
    13 January 2021 @ 09:55
    Great to see Bryne on here! Been reading this newsletter for some time now.
  • JS
    John S.
    12 January 2021 @ 11:20
    80% probability that BTC goes to zero. LOL
    • JF
      Jack F. | Real Vision
      12 January 2021 @ 13:27
      John, I believe Byrne Hobart is a long-term HODL-er. He remains bullish despite the perceived probabilities
    • KL
      Ken L.
      13 January 2021 @ 03:26
      That is a reach, after 12 years of working almost flawlesly calling a 80 percent chance to go to 0. If there were to be a flaw in the code, it can be forked. That view is poorly explained and very shallow.
  • DS
    David S.
    12 January 2021 @ 17:40
    This is a rare case here on RV where putting kittens inside the video would have actually helped. Chaotic hour, starting by random thoughts about bubbles, followed by Steve Jobs clothes, 2 sentences on Norway, the history of Facebook... He does win the award for fastest speaker though
    • RT
      Robert T.
      12 January 2021 @ 21:42
      halfway wished there was a 0.75x setting for this one
  • JT
    John T.
    12 January 2021 @ 19:22
    I remember how expensive the school bookstore was in my undergrad years. I'd often wait till classes started and call a number someone would leave on the door to purchase his used book. Amazon had a lot of competition in this area. We had plenty of creative advertising like free bookmarks passed out with comical pictures and used textbook sites written on them among other things. Bigwords.com and a bunch of others.
  • NC
    NATHAN C.
    12 January 2021 @ 14:32
    This gentleman thinks Michael Saylor can do anything he wants. Is that so? I believe Saylor has a board he has to answer to. Is that wrong?
    • ML
      Michele L.
      12 January 2021 @ 16:34
      according to the 2020 proxy he has 72% voting control (followed by blackrock with 5%)
  • NC
    NATHAN C.
    12 January 2021 @ 14:24
    Why do so many RV folks seem to be recording from a closet in an empty apartment? Do they not have time to buy furniture or wall hangings?
  • AS
    Atul S.
    12 January 2021 @ 12:55
    I can recommend the paper "Manias and Mimesis" by Huber and Hobart.
  • OT
    Omar T.
    12 January 2021 @ 12:11
    Very interesting