Comments
Transcript
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PSRaoul, why did you drop the EOS word? :) EOS project in their full name "Ethereum on Steroids" sacrifices decentralisation for sake of scalability. It is a centralised "blockchain", they run a dPOS (delegated proof of stake) consensus meaning the blocks are approved by a few nodes controlled by EOS foundation. So it´s not a valuable decentralised blockchain. Value in blockchain is coming from the decentralised and trustless interaction. Please do your research before you drop a name of a centralised project like EOS as the EOS token is likely worthless and you have many people on RV who are new to crypto, so you don´t want to just go and blindly buy a thing you mentioned.Or just focus on Bitcoin or Decentralised Finance (DeFi) on Ethereum here as these are genuinely valuable to its users, token holders, miners and basically any stakeholder. Also just to briefly point out Ripple is a great technology that is owned by Ripple Inc. There is certainly value in the tech and thus in the shares of Ripple Inc. But the XRP token is worthless and only trades on hype, it does not accrue any value by design and it is from the majority owned by Ripple Inc. I´m just dropping it here so people do their research before they blindly buy some tokens just because Dan mentioned it 6x in the interview. It is of course good for Ripple Inc if people blindly buy tokens. On the positive side Dan describes nicely the BTC volatility and investor sentiment :) Thanks for doing it. It would be great if RV focused mainly on Bitcoin, DeFi and interoperability between the blockchains. Hope this does not become a shilling space for centralised blockchains. Bitcoin, not blockchain!
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SBDan Morehead did an amazing job keeping a straight face mentioning Bitcoin in the same breath with Ripple (100% premined coin) and Eth (zero monetary policy - the Fed of digital assets). LPT know Bitcoin BTC. All this talk about “blockchain”, it’s like 2014-2015 all over again. When someone says “blockchain” ask how is consensus reached among disparate, hostile counter-parties? What is bonded? Dan even said “back office blockchain, we are past all that”. Ethereum is dynamic because it’s broken, it’s in search of a use case, it’s underlying tech doesn’t align to real world constraints like the laws of physics, limitations on data transmission, storage, node syncing, etc. they are still trying to migrate from proof of work to something else only to find out that something else doesn’t work in the real world too. Ethereum has a bunch of people navel gazing, doesn’t mean anything will ever come of it unfortunately. Ripple is not going to replace Swift. It is a 100% premined coin. Nothing more needs to be said. “Blockchain” is a made-up marketing term, it’s supposedly the next evolution of a distributed database, in reality it’s not. Raoul should have @TuurDemeester or @danheld on for an interview to help the RV audience appreciate what are the characteristics of a functional blockchain (there really is only one, it’s Bitcoin BTC), when is a blockchain appropriate (only one real use case, SOV, MoE, and ultimately unit of account). This is because the underlying method of reaching consensus in an open-source, hostile, distributed, decentralized manner is extremely costly, slow, and expensive. Due to it having all these apparent drawbacks (they are features, not bugs) it’s perfect as a SOV, MoE, and ultimately a unit of account. There will only be 21 million Bitcoin divisible to 8 decimal places. With Bitcoin my counterparty risk is a blockchain protected by 100 terahash per second calculations. Globally, within a second, 100 Trillion nonces are calculated. 100 Trillion calculations per second 24x7x365. There is no more reliable counterparty ever known. Best odds ever.
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MK"... now its 102 trillion" hahaha :'D
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TRThank you for this insightful interview. It would be interesting to hear Dan and Raoul's thoughts on Hedera Hashgraph (HBAR) and if that has traction. Bitcoin halving is a little over 20 days away; should be fireworks by the end of the year.
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MTDan Moorehead also said ICX in Q1 2018 would be the best performing crypto in 2018 and his biggest holding. ICX turned out to go from $4 to .20 cents during that time, so Dan's best call for 2018 was a 95% loss. Not sure Dan is a reliable source of crypto info even if he manages a crypto fund. Just goes to show you most people don't know what they are doing in crypto.
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GLGreat interview! Completely agree with Dan on venture investing.
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JMI find it incredible how these self-aggrandized money managers can make sanctimonious statements about an imperialist like Napoleon whilst ignoring the fact that it's the very imperialist nature of their supposed superior moral system which of course is neither superior or moral that made them their noncapitalistic profits in the first place. Whilst indirectly denouncing an imperialist like Napoleon. The US system is Napoleon, Rome, Britain, Spain, (You choose your Empire there are plenty) of today yet is far more destructive, unjust and immoral than Napoleon or any other imperialist before them via the reserve currency bastardized Bretton Wood situation. The USA has managed to achieve more death, misery and stolen treasure than any of the equally repugnant imperialists that have come before them. Real Vision, unfortunately, is full off such characters too many to mention here, however Kyle Bass and this guy seem to make the example fairly obvious. Its a pity RV doesn’t address this by equalizing the debate and showing some serious objectivity by bringing on guests who may point this glaring fact out. There are many people out there with excessive knowledge on the subject that would I’m sure jump at the chance to be on this platform. Ron Paul, Jeremy Grantham, Noam Chomsky, Max Kiser, to mention only a few. I don’t state this to suggest attempted capitalism is to blame although maybe it is I don’t know as we have never seen true free-market capitalism or true communism before. We have only ever seen centralized systems claiming to be one or the other in pure propaganda. So maybe the question should be Centralised systems or Decentralised systems the latter supposedly being this guy's expertise?
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BNAlways great to see Dan &Raoul! Thanks! Happy Holidays.
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BJIs it just me or is that cue ball always exactly in the same spot and these interviews are all done at the same time of day?
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MLWhen was this recorded?
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EVI hold bitcoin and am a believer in it as a long term store of value, but was dismayed by parts of this interview, especially the lazy claim that bitcoin is “disrupting remittance”. Remittance is a startup graveyard, try googling or simply browsing Medium for plenty of postmortems from players in the space who realized that Bitcoin does NOT solve the hard problem there. These and other intellectually lazy claims made me concerned about the intellectual rigor of this BTC cheering session.
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AKDisagree heavily with Dan in one aspect, the will probably not even be 2 block chains in the future that are of economic significance. This is a winner takes it all space in my opinion. With side chains on Bitcoin you can do anything that Eth or XRP offer. Therefore it becomes a pure network effect race, and so far Bitcoin is half way through the marathon and the rest are still in the start Pitts. I even think there is a chance that Dan would agree with this view, but when you run a fund you cant just say "we will buy only Bitcoin" because then the investors can do it just for themselves and do not need your fund. To anybody wondering about entering this space I feel very comfortable to say that 99 % of the projects are direct scams, 0.9 % are misdirected project and miss allocations of capital, and finally there is Bitcoin. So to summarize 100 % of your crypto investment no matter how big or small it is should be in Bitcoin.
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SMDan says the money printing will raise the price of real estate. Yet many real estate owners are leveraged to the gills. AirBnB superhosts have 10-20 properties around the world, many in vacation destinations. Great cash flow in good times, but when the scheme fails it will add a margin of supply at just the time when everyone has to hold onto cash and can't pony up a 20% downpayment. Superhosts are just one example - anyone who planned to get out of a home (builders, flippers, growing families) and anyone who relies on real estate for cash flow is getting tossed into a blender. Do you think real estate prices go down first? If so, for how long? If not, why not?
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KMWhen Dan said that 5% of remittances between US and Mexico were through.... (hell yes! Say it, XRP!) ... Bitcoin. That made me skeptical that he was being a bit disingenuous but I don’t know, maybe Bitcoin has a slice of that pie. Where is that info? XRP is moving 7.5% of USD/MXN on weekly basis and you can easily find that on Google. Deterministic settlement time of ~3.7 seconds, nearly free transactions. One is built for value transfer, the other is built for value. IMHO own both. Either way I love what RV is providing and love listening to so many informative interviews!
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MTWhat I don't get about the appeal of bitcoin is the counter-party risk. Unlike physical gold and silver that you hold yourself, Bitcoin is just electrons that you never hold and require someone else to transact on your behalf. It just doesn't seem to replace gold, in my opinion. Maybe there is something I'm not seeing.
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PDQuestion for Dan - You mentioned scaling. What have your people told you about BSV? They claim massive scaling potential right now. But their London conference attracted 800 people, there was huge energy, and were not covered by a single major media source.
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ZMHey Dan! Great episode. I'm curious if you see financial institutions building on top of the XRPL similar to Bitstamp. The question about stablecoins immediately made me think about why banks won't allow their own stablecoins (backed by their cash reserves) on the XRPL so we can transmit and transact that value instantaneously. Why use ETH? What are the regulatory issues that are getting in the way of that and do we see our businesses being able to get past those?
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bsGentlemen, what is the best diversified safer way to invest in this asset class? Can we add a video or more content? Would love Dan back on just to talk about his firm and interesting projects now. His videos are some of the best. Have money to invest now. TY
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DDI enjoyed listening to this interview and am inclined to believe in the long term future for BTC but I keep coming back to one question which has be stumped. I agree that governments around the world would like to move to digital currencies for a whole variety of reasons. However what I don't get is why they would choose Bitcoin. If there is a maximum of 21MM ever going to exist then this would imply that governments around the world would have to compete to buy these thus sending the price soaring. Rather than do this why not simply create their own coins using the bitcoin architecture and software. I'm sure someone out there can answer this question for me. Thanks for your help Donal.
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JWOne of the essential ingredients in the bitcoin cocktail is the market influence of miners and the difficulty adjustment. For those if you interested in finding out more I can direct you to either Pomp or Stephan Livera who have recently done very interesting podcasts with Matt d'Souza from Blockware. These podcasts certainly gave me a deeper understanding of the dynamics.
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AHThere are people in jail today based on digital evidence, where the seized hard drive was proven untampered during the chain of custody by putting the hard drive image data through a MD5 hash. Why? because experts (including me) believed that no two data sets could produce the same MD5. MD5 Hash Collisions are real. There are so many examples of us believing in an encryption scheme because the white paper made sense. Only for flaws to be discovered years later. --- I have not seen experts consider a crypto flaw in Bitcoins threat model. Will satoshi be the first the guy in history to publish perfection in a 1.0 white paper? I've worked in cybersecurity for over 20 years. I'm the annoying bitcoin guy at work. I want to believe bitcoin is perfect (even though I know better).
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SGDistributed Ledger technology is here to stay and there will be obvious opportunities. My view since I sold out of bitcoin in '17 (too early I might add) is that it simply cannot work. Someone explain to me where my thinking is wrong here please? A. Governments can simply ban it via shutting down exchanges (or regulating them out of existence). B. If I'm not mistaken, $1M bitcoin would require as much energy as the rest of mainland USA combined. That would quite literally warm the Earth. Someone point out where my math is wrong on this? C. Advances in computing will make bitcoin more efficient yes, however such great advances to lower energy consumption will also make bitcoin useless if encryption can be broken.
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PBFinally the answer to the question I was pondering...I saw Bitcoin going down as the Debt unwinds over the next 3 to 6 months..Old Mate here confirms this
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DRWar and Peace - the Dunnigan translation from Signet Classics. It's easy to follow.
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MMIt seems that governments are becoming more authoritarian as this crisis develops and I wonder how private digital currencies such as Btc, Eth can coexist along side state issued digital currency?
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AWDan is a visionary but I do get bothered when Dan mentions his interest in XRP, which has no use case that couldn't be built on top of BTC and whose supply pool is controlled by a central authority. It sounds like the Fed. And makes me think Dan has a personal vest in Ripple. The Proof of Work of BTC is essential because it eliminates the authorities. As a money supply and monetary policy, BTC's Layer 1 is 100% perfect as a foundation on which anything can be built on higher layers. If BTC maximalism is rejected, we run the risk that any future money supplies would be rejected, and confidence will be lost on the entire idea. BTC's money supply or nothing.
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SpRaoul or Milton! Many bitcoiners believe that proof of work was a greater and more important innovation than the blockchain. Adam Back was the first to implement proof of work in a crypto currency (Hash Cash), and was referenced in the Bitcoin white paper. He runs Blockstream, one of the largest Bitcoin development companies. He's active on twitter @adam3us, and regularly accepts interviews. Can you please have him on to help us understand why the blockchain itself is not as useful in non-bitcoin applications. He's very good at explaining technical concepts to the lay man. Marty Bent would be a great interviewer for this.
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PFRaoul, you’ve mentioned a couple of times that Singapore may close the borders to visitors for possibly one to two years. I’ve tried to find information on this. Can you share a link please?
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CBGreat interview with Dan Morehead. I learn something new every time I listen to him. I am also enjoying the questions at the end of the interview as they give a little more insight into the interviewee.
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AWI won't even comment on any of the altcoins mentioned (Ether, Ripple, any other) as they are just marketing stories disguising relentless and unconscionable liquidations by founders onto retail investors. Regarding bitcoin, I am cautiously optimistic but I am upset that we gloss over the Chinese and Russian 70%+ hashpower dominance, that the man Satoshi named as his successor (Gavin) has called in rich, the total lack of resistance to quantum cryptography, and lastly bitcoin's reliance on fiat onramps (read: government approval) for 95% of its market cap.
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SSDan & Raoul the issue of BTC latency is currently being improved if you look at how Prism increases BTC TPS from 7tps to 70,000 tps with a 10-12% latency, which clearly shows that security is not compromised with the increase of performance.
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NII don't follow the logic about BTC being a call option on the future of crypto. It seems like time traveling to 2005 and saying that myspace is a call option on social media.
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JCHi Raoul, Could I ask you to take a shot at the billiard? The white ball so central positioned on the table doesn't really reflect the current market conditions; doesn't it feel more like the game just started. C'mon give it a good break shot to open the playing field. Keep up the the good work. Thanks J.
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DMThanks Raoul for being more involved in the interviewing. We signed up for you.
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ATDo you really want to store your wealth on a transparent public ledger where everyone can see your whole financial history?
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AJBut does he have AirPods?
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DMMorehead's a genius - loved this interview. Hope to see him interviewed again down the line.
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DLThere will be testing at all places that concentrate many people. ie: workplace, airports, etc.. We'll need testing poof at lesser places. ie: restaurants, malls, theaters. All else will depend on social-distancing. It will be impossible to sort out entire populations and there is no quarantine method for the infected without symptoms.
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CCGreat interview with someone that saw the future way before most of us. I admire anyone who can block out their preconceived notions to see what might be. Thanks RV
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EHAwesome interview, could have watched for another 2 hours. Feel blessed to live in a time where we have access to conversations like this
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LJI wondered the same with tether why are so many people using tether. Basically from what i understand marketmakers etc have a hard time maintaining banking relations because of all the scrutiny so they just use things like tether or other stablecoins to send funds around between exchanges quickly. otc markets in china also really like these stablecoins.
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CHIt's amazing really. Here's a technology that for the first time in history have a shot at breaking the state monopoly of money and the only thing people can do is to come up with 101 reasons as to why it won't work 50 years down the line. I mean, really? We have *no idea* what the world looks like in 50 years. Not a clue. What we do know however is that Bitcoin works *today* and that it's getting serious momentum in terms of intellectual capacity. My suggestion to skeptics: Stop focusing on why Bitcoin won't work in 10, 20 or 50 years and start focusing on why it *works* today. That will make you understand Bitcoin 100 times better. Thanks Dan and RV for a great inverview.
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PHOne of Dan's comments was that in the last recession the Fed had 430 basis points to cut, but in this one there were only 150. If one would disregard what it sounds like to "lend money and pay people for it", I fail to see how the marginal impact of going from 0.25% to 0% would be that much less than goin from 0% to -0.25%. In economic terms, why is the 0% line more important than other lines (such as 0.25% or 0.5%). I would love for you guys to have someone come and talk about what crossing this line would mean.
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DSTo reduce her/his FX risk, it is the lender who may demand a loan be in USD. This is just common sense. The dollar is the reserve currency because of the market, not CBs, not politics, not laws, etc. Any other system, Bitcoin, a basket of currency digital currency, gold, etc. will be used when the lender feels the risk is lower than USD. DLS
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JDI too would like to hear about the strong dollar issue destroying economies. Interesting conversation.
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CGRaoul and Dan - two of the smartest guys in the macro space. Fascinating.
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SBI may be the last man standing but i remain nervous of Bitcoin and Crypto, generally, because it is clearly such a threat to the BIS / Western Central Banking system. They have made it clear - their goal is a global digital currency issued and controlled by THEM. Cash is in their way and they are doing everything possible to eliminate it as a threat. Gold is in the way and through proxy's they have been manipulating the gold market, for years. When are they going to focus their attention on eliminating or minimizing the threat from the Bitcoin/Crypto space? That is not to take anything away from the block chain technology itself - that is here to stay - but we should not assume that toppling the most powerful monopoly in the world will be a simple organic process.
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JKGreat interview. My only concern is the outcome of a massively appreciating usd. Anyone please feel invited to discuss...
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DSVery interesting presentation. I really enjoyed Mr. Morehead's vision and common sense. Anywhere I can look to see how to invest in the blockchain side of the businesses. Thanks. DLS
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DSAs an aside, if were running a fund with billions of dollars invested in stocks with covenants that must be 80% or more in stocks, I would be joining the chorus that we are at a market bottom. I would then go whistling past the graveyard on my way home. DLS
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DSAs an aside, anyone who is asking for a government bailout needs to realize that they believe in limited socialism. This is not a bad thing, but just being honest. DLS
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CSI'm still in agreement with Jeff Gundlach when he says the Cryptobubble was a late stage credit cycle mania, and I see little to support it in a downturn. However I do think the world will move to peer to peer blockchain payment systems. I just don't think it follows that you should buy the current flawed currencies. I think something far better will emerge.
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MPwhen can i pay the RV subscribtion with bitcoin?
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DGIt's funny with all these cypto interviews you never hear about the downside risks. For example, lost keys, exchanges going broke, theft etc.
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bsGREAT INTERVIEW. APPRECIATE YOU BOTH SO MUCH! TY!
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NNGreat interview. Wish he would’ve expanded on why he thinks real estate will appreciate...
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THWhich of the bitcoins has the biggest upside potential and why?
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AWBlockchain is simply a distributed ledger. Best used only for money. Happy to be debated with.
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HJI'm having a hard time understanding how Libra is a good idea. Won't you have massive conflicts in determining the allocations? Lets say a rebalance is required, that would have a negative impact on some, and positive on others. Who will be making that determination, and at who's expense.
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HJLove bitcoin. Cringe when I hear blockchain...
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PDRaoul/Real Vision interviews two types of people: 1. Those with big book shelves behind them, and 2. Those with a blank wall as a backdrop. Those with big bookshelves behind them tend to like bitcoin and gold. Those with blank walls behind them tend to like whatever everybody else in their circle of friends like that day.
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TJBrilliant and so inspirational to listen to Dan and Raoul discuss macro, crypto and life! Excellent advice from Dan on regularly grabbing serious time for thought and contemplation without any distraction or market "noise".
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MLFantastic. Enjoyable and informative.
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MAIncredible interview - thanks! Can anyone recommend any good books/articles with regards to understanding blockchain?
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DRRaoul. Rolling out all the legends at this historic time. Fantastic content, please keep them coming (thumbs up)
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AKAwesome interview. The major takeaways about now being good timing while the price is low, and the timing of institutional money inflows after a few months of damage control/opportunity searching we're great to hear.
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DMalready got our first taste of helicopter money in the US, more is certainly on the way. bodes well for gold and bitcoin