Comments
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SCIf you buy say a 3 month forward 1500 put and the market drops to 2200 next month the return on that 1500 put will probably be considerably higher than the 2200/2500 spread.
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TNFor someone who sat on 10 million worth of HYG short its hard not to hate the FED
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GFWhat constitutes critical infrastructure depends on what we suddenly have trouble sourcing. Medical equipment, antibiotics, etc., were all outsourced to China, but suddenly have become critical infrastructure. If the relationship really goes bad, we will find a lot of other stuff that is suddenly critical infrastructure. Rare earth metals are one that I'm keeping an eye on, but there are many.
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RYThank you for an excellent and measured discussion .... Hope to see you both back on RV sooner rather than later ...
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TBFrom the interview: "Fed is buying have yields of 4%. And the bonds that the Fed is not buying have yields of 10%. " Just ran across following article, which states that Fed hasn't actually bought any corporate bonds, junk bonds or related ETFs even though Fed had announced that it would buy them. That announcement itself triggered a rally by yield chasing institutional investors trying to front run the Fed. Does this point in the article seem valid? Does this increase risk of a market crash if Fed doesn't ultimately do what they said? https://wolfstreet.com/2020/05/08/fed-cuts-qe-helicopter-money-for-wall-street-further-still-hasnt-bought-junk-bonds-or-etfs-was-just-jawboning/
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KRTowel is thrown in....... Now I am shorting Canadian Housing !!
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jsCan't I hate both?
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MD@Max W and others at RealVision -- please consider the following as a best practice. Your best interviewers ask a question then listen to the answer. Recently, newer interviewers have practiced 'active listening' by saying 'Yup. Yes. Right. Yup. Yup. Uh huh.' while the other person is answering a question. This works during a face to face conversation between two people, but is quite annoying in an interview setting. Thanks.
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EKI like the skepticism about negative rates and the Fed buying stocks. Jared is an interesting observer of the markets and not that he is a strict contrarian but rather pragmatically cynical.
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MLThinking that the US market will be protected by the Fed at all cost creates the conditions for the perfect storm. The reason some people decide not to participate in this market is that if you can't base your capital allocation decisions on financial fundamentals (and instead on "going along" the Fed), you are taking risks that are not adequately priced in your risk-return, namely systemic risks that are higher than current risk free rates of zero.
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ABAussies are also fanatical about the housing market. For a period due to COVID you could go to RE auctions but you couldn't go to church..
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EVThis is one of the most facile and offensive interviews I have ever listened to. The whole framing of the discussion is preposterous. No one is “refusing to participate” in the market because they feel “morally offended” by Fed action- that is a complete straw man argument. These guys apparently think it’s a moral protest simply to not promptly blindly buy whatever the headlines suggest the Fed is buying, completely careless to price. So anything other than completely automatic “greater fool” buying no matter how distorted a market, to these guys is the equivalent of putting yourself on a crucifix. Please skip these clowns
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miI enjoyed this video
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mlYes more macro ! I don’t miss all the interviews that I got paywalled from because they moved to a higher tier without communication... jeez I miss the Grant Williams content I originally subscribed to this platform for which is non existent now.. not surprised if see more pure advertisement videos like the past.
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MBit was a good discussion though, I like Matt’s thinking
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MMSure, absolutely, we have to transcend our own attitudes toward right & wrong, politics, etc. It seems obvious, but it's always good to be reminded, and to constantly check ourselves. Now, be careful, our egos can be very cagey; listening to Jared I can't help but wonder if such a strong view on this transcend-your-biases point might in fact steer someone away from their better judgement (having confused it with a personal bias) based simply on, say, price action, or even what the Fed happens to be buying...
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MBmaybe Raoul could have gotten more out of Jared to make this a highlight. Jared is good but was unfortunately a bit undersold here.
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DPI like Matt's content. More options oriented strategies (spreads etc.) on RV would be great.
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DAI wish that Matt would allow Jared to speak more, his questions go on forever
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JHGood stuff. As a retail financial advisor for everyday working blokes I often wonder if the pontificators have ever had to make a tough decision on behalf of those class of people. Not the 8 digit net worth people, but the 6 digit and low 7 digit net worth investors that make up 99% of the investor class. Hoi polloi trying to get to retirement with some measure of dignity. More of Jared, less of the pontificators.
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TGGood one JD. Need this cat on THE VISION more.
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APBig fan of Jared and he always has a somewhat different opinion. Would love to see him on more.
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CRThanks for the interview i really enjoyed it. It's the second interview where I hear "long/short gamma trading". Where I can learn more about this concept? I don't know how translate the theory to something practical. Thanks
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BPJared is always pretty good. Like to see him on more.
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mnVery sobering discussion, thank you both.
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BPExcellent conversation, Jared was great, Matt's perspective/experience equally strong. thx
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JEAlways a fan of Jared.
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BBInteresting comment on Canadians valuing houses like american's value stocks. The real lesson there is pension funds. If pension funds fail, a nation fails. Therefore, pension funds of any nation cannot and will not fail until everything else does so in the wise words of Alan Greenspan "BTFD or GTFO"
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NNWhere’d the transcripts go?
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DKI enjoyed this discussion. I would agree that in this era price discovery is virtually impossible. One observation, if I take this to heart, is that managing money is all about increasing profits regardless of the moral implications associated with those decisions. If that is true then of course the smart hardworking sociopaths will most likely be the ones at the top, those like Soros that are completely ethically unencumbered. I am blessed not to have to make a living in such an environment but I certainly enjoy the education that Real Vision provides.
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DSKeeping the stock market overvalued in the US is not a cultural thing, it is a political thing. If the market is down, politicians will not be reelected. We are spending trillions of dollars to keep the stock market up. Do you really think that the three trillion dollars is going to the lower wage earners? It is a goodie grab bag for the rich. It is interesting that the programs run through September. Could this be keeping the rabble happy until the election? With Coronavirus we cannot even keep the voters happy with gladiators. DLS
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AWGreat aspect and many thanks! People tend to judge what is wrong and right and how it should be based on their own moral compass and value system, this kind of thinkings should be kept away from placing the best possible trade.
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PSN mn mmm
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VPTo borrow a popular Twitter phrase, "this is the content I'm here for", these guys are good and really enjoyed the discussion. Felt like being back on the job having the luxury and privilege to talk with some smart people. Thank you!
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RKNice. This is important to see for people who are suffering because they understand that what's happening is fundamentally wrong on so many levels including the moral. Nice pragmatic hints on how to approach these obscene markets from that standpoint.
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CBGreat interview, thanks guys.