Gerard Minack — “Buy the Rumor, Sell the Fact”

Published on
June 8th, 2020
Duration
71 minutes


Gerard Minack — “Buy the Rumor, Sell the Fact”

The Interview ·
Featuring Gerard Minack

Published on: June 8th, 2020 • Duration: 71 minutes

Gerard Minack, director of Minack Advisors, joins Real Vision CEO, Raoul Pal, for a wide-ranging discussion on the future of rates, corporate earnings, and inflation. The pair analyzes the growth prospects for economies around the world, ranging from Europe to China to the U.S., and identify patterns within equity, debt, and currency markets. Minack shares his thoughts on credit quality, negative interest rates, and debt monetization as he looks forward to see the opportunities that lie ahead on the macro horizon. The pair also analyzes the Australian housing market and discusses risks such as heightening geopolitical tensions and the prospect of a second wave of COVID-19. Filmed on June 3, 2020.

Comments

Transcript

  • JV
    Jerry V.
    21 September 2020 @ 10:21
    What a wonderful conversation - much appreciated - Pura Vida
  • DS
    David S.
    28 June 2020 @ 19:56
    The EU mutualized debt may be just a head fake. DLS
  • Sv
    Sid v.
    17 June 2020 @ 19:41
    so nice to hear a clear thinker speak
  • HV
    Henrik V.
    15 June 2020 @ 17:28
    Great interview, can't fault the thinking. As a counterpoint observation, when I went to the Cinema in Switzerland yesterday at 2PM it seemed pretty normal. Afternoon movie with about 30% full is what it would usually look like.
  • GB
    Gary B.
    14 June 2020 @ 15:07
    Gerard is clearly an alien wizard. That was an amazing interview
  • AN
    Andrew N.
    9 June 2020 @ 00:05
    I'd like to expand my MMT request.... Any chance RV could line up a series of interviews on MMT, pro and con. I know there have been one or two in the past, but back then it seemed (to me) like an arcane academic topic. It's looking more and more like it will be put into practice, and may destroy, or save, western civilization. I think we really need to get to the bottom of it.
    • SC
      Sejong C.
      9 June 2020 @ 02:57
      There is a Warren Mosler interview from 2019 or so.
    • KJ
      Kurt J.
      9 June 2020 @ 03:13
      I think the way that the theorists MMT describe it, is actually occurring. I.e. sovereign reserve banks already print money, but they monetise the debt by selling to keep faith in the system and eschew the idea that the State itself is creating the money. Their idea for an unemployment benefit, which would amount to an UBI, is interesting, though haven't spent enough time thinking it through.
    • SS
      Shanthi S.
      9 June 2020 @ 04:30
      Agreed. This would be a great topic. IMO MMT sux eggs, but the least restrained MMT style governments will probably have a comparative advantage over the most restrained in the short term, vice versa in the long term. If governments use taxation (of spending power in the private sector) to curb inflation caused by fiscal spending, over time you’re going to destroy all economic dynamism, as the successful will be punished for the endless profligacy of the fiscal authorities, probably in the name of reducing the wealth gap. Yay? Not so different from the current situation in some ways, but much worse once inflation becomes an issue. I’m bracing for capital controls, wealth taxes, ever expanding government and other cruel and unnecessary punishments in the long term, as dependence on the State is incentivised over the free market.
    • ZM
      Zane M.
      13 June 2020 @ 13:10
      I followed MMT through to it's UBI rollout and it fails in its attempts to regulate public districts in even distribution. - If you could imagine being an uptown lawyer who falls unemployed and residing uptown, How do you qualify his/her standard of living commitments too an unemployed person who resides in a township.
  • MH
    Michael H.
    11 June 2020 @ 06:41
    Tremendous. I had the pleasure of working with Gerard at Morgan Stanley for many years. Like a fine wine, he's getting better and better.
  • jg
    john g.
    10 June 2020 @ 22:28
    When I have an "epiphany" (in a book, article, study) I take the time to outline it . I do this to put the information in my active memory to use it as a tool. THIS ARTICLE QUALIFIES. Thanks to RealVision for providing a transcript. Do understand this is topical, things are changing fast, but should help over the next month or two. One additional opinion, for Italy to get bailed out, they NEED to increase taxes. Families in Italy have more net worth than families in Germany. Germany should not be bailing Italy out! Repeat this interview around August 1!
  • JT
    Jayne T.
    10 June 2020 @ 21:53
    Gerard, what is the political risk with the election—if Trump wins or loses? Also, a data point of one: our beach towns reopened weeks ago and people are going out to eat, shop etc. with no raise in Covid #s. Covid seems to hit the nursing homes, chicken factory workers and the low-end of the economic spectrum where multiple families live together. The deaths seem to mainly hit those with an underlying condition and/or the elderly. In other words, healthy people are less nervous (for better or worse).
  • HR
    Humberto R.
    8 June 2020 @ 17:15
    Romania announced it was scrapping its huge nuclear electric plans with the Chinese over the weekend. Mind you these are projects that are already underway physically. The belt and road is showing cracks...
    • JD
      James D.
      8 June 2020 @ 18:49
      Where did you learn this bit of information?
    • SS
      Shanthi S.
      9 June 2020 @ 04:35
      Wow!
    • RM
      Robert M.
      10 June 2020 @ 20:09
      Romania-Insider.com has a Jan 21, 2020 article saying the same.
  • JF
    Jennifer F.
    10 June 2020 @ 08:26
    Thanks Gerard. Great to hear more about the land I live in.
  • HH
    HODL H.
    10 June 2020 @ 05:34
    Aussie is doin him a heckin bamboozle, heck
  • MP
    Michael P.
    10 June 2020 @ 04:03
    Powerful interview. Rarely see Raul's face with such a serious look. Clearly respects Gerard's intellect. This is getting real.
  • MC
    Michael C.
    9 June 2020 @ 01:19
    Raoul, Is the probability of a 2nd liquidiation in markets rising? The old patterns of behaviour (short vol and short gamma strategies using leverage via repos and swaps) have come back hard. Leverage is building back up in the system (we are seeing repo fails again). So while the pain trade is an up market the likely hood that the market crashes (instead of just rolling over) also rises. Only thing is ....whats the trigger?
    • AI
      Andras I.
      10 June 2020 @ 03:20
      I bet the trigger is the market sniffing out the end/slowing of QE. There is some good research in the earlier reports on the Artemis Capital (also search for Chris Cole, who's a regular guest here) website. He shows that suppressed volatility skyrockets in these cases with an immediate price fall. But I guess they can go full Draghi and just keep talking about it without actually doing it.
  • VS
    Vafa S.
    9 June 2020 @ 04:28
    Is it almost time for Raoul to touch on his "Unfolding" framework or perhaps this has been done for higher subscription tiers?
    • AI
      Andras I.
      10 June 2020 @ 03:15
      It's being subtly and gradually corrected, if you're following closely (together with the rest of the macro community scrambling for a view). A lot of unforeseen things have changed that either stretches the timing or partially invalidates the framework.
  • OA
    Oscar A.
    9 June 2020 @ 17:13
    Too much emphasis on Gold. The push for a hedge that has failed many years this past decades still impresses me. "Maybe this time will be different" right? Look at all the Millenial Robinhooders buying trash and all that other factors you find very hard to understand. The times are changing, and Gold won't be any different. Look ahead to the future and you'll see Bitcoin (BTC) is going to be the gold you're talking about now.
    • BS
      Bradley S.
      10 June 2020 @ 01:33
      BTC has no scale BRO. Whats with all the BTC people being curmudgeons??
  • CM
    Chris M.
    10 June 2020 @ 00:02
    Loved this interview. Please make him a regular guest!
  • AS
    Ash S.
    9 June 2020 @ 22:26
    So fucking good!! I don't know where to start so I'll leave it at that. Please get him back. And love the Aussie talk in the mix.
  • JL
    James L.
    8 June 2020 @ 23:12
    Comment on the edit. You could try recording both the video and sound locally in the background of the video call, and then edit the 4 together rather than take the recording straight off the video call. That way you won't get the low res low frequency image and sound that occasionally stutters.
    • ML
      Matthew L.
      9 June 2020 @ 09:37
      Im always thinking this everytime im watching, pretty easy to get setup, and RV have proffesional video editors that could do this in there sleep.
    • JL
      James L.
      9 June 2020 @ 20:06
      Especially now Raoul has his fancy new camera. The intro looks great but the feature looks like it's filmed on a toaster
  • SG
    Satvinder G.
    9 June 2020 @ 18:35
    Gerard is succint in his approach similar to yourself Raoul. Very informative interview, thoroughly enjoyed!
  • SO
    Shaun O.
    9 June 2020 @ 14:44
    Australia wants to tax Google, FB etc for their news sharing not for the money. but for the media control with the Murdoch Press. If we are talking of breaking up Google/FB because they are oligopolies, why did we never break up Murdoch press?
  • AG
    Alan G.
    9 June 2020 @ 12:46
    Fantastic. Please bring him back again
  • ab
    alan b.
    9 June 2020 @ 11:39
    That was more useful information (bridging many gaps in my internal narrative) in an hour than 8 months of trolling my "alt" news feed. who the f**ck was that guy??
  • ac
    anthony c.
    9 June 2020 @ 03:55
    What is "JFC" that Minack keep referring to?
    • DK
      Daniel K.
      9 June 2020 @ 04:38
      GFC - global financial crisis?
    • TS
      Taranvir S.
      9 June 2020 @ 04:54
      GFC? Global Financial Crisis
    • ab
      alan b.
      9 June 2020 @ 11:38
      "JayFC", mate...
  • GS
    Gary S.
    8 June 2020 @ 22:57
    wrong on aussie housing and rental rates, just as he didnt expect stock to go up he will be wrong on aussie housing
    • AT
      Andrew T.
      9 June 2020 @ 02:03
      Would be able to put forth your argument for why he is wrong? There is currently a lot of people on both sides of the fence this is the perfect place to actually have a good conversation on this.
    • SS
      Shanthi S.
      9 June 2020 @ 04:34
      What happens to Aussie real estate if inflation kicks in? Might save the day in a twisted way. We are the lucky country after all.
    • ML
      Matthew L.
      9 June 2020 @ 09:41
      What happens in Sept when the 480,000 Australian mortgages that are currently frozen due to financial hardship is over, and the banks start requesting loan repayments again?
  • DO
    Daryl O.
    9 June 2020 @ 09:10
    That has to be one of THE best RV interviews. Admittedly I'm probably biased as a Sydneysider.....but it was excellent conversation. I for one would love to see Gerard back on more regularly.
  • WL
    Wayne L.
    9 June 2020 @ 08:32
    Loved it. Literally buzzing inside thinking about what you guys were discussing.
  • AC
    Avi C.
    9 June 2020 @ 08:12
    Very interesting interview and ideas by Minack. In large part, he is actually echoing the ideas of Charles gave. You should do a long interview with him. he is the brightest of them all.
  • TM
    Thomas M.
    9 June 2020 @ 07:54
    I thought this was a great interview Raoul and Gerard. For the US, I believe the KEY to being able to make a plan for the future will be the outcome of the elections. Gerard was on point with Biden in the White House and Mitch Controlling the Senate. That combo could be a tough outcome for the US. All other outcome we will see fiscal spending here. In the mean time, I think the FED will do whatever it needs to to keep the market pumped up until then. US fiscal stimulus needs to happen after that in order to keep the US market from taking another big dive IMHO. Gold is the easy play in my book and should be continuously bought over time. Central banks and GOVT's WILL be forced to keep printing, that's all they know to do. Market rallied past my expectations which is fine. Reducing risk in the US equity markets the higher it goes seems to be prudent into the elections and gold accumulation seems the best bet in town. Like many others, we all feel a sense that something is not right and the markets continue higher. The next few months will be very interesting and being prepared and flexible will be important. Thank you to the speakers and also to all those who posted in the comments section below. Opinions expressed and thought processes appreciated! Diversity of opinions make you look harder at your own thought process.
  • KS
    Katie S.
    9 June 2020 @ 07:24
    Have been waiting for Gerard’s update on oz. thanks guys! Spot on!
  • MD
    Matt D.
    9 June 2020 @ 05:45
    Great interview Raoul and Gerard. Thanks. I don't know if its just me but it seems pointless to consider Macro or much at all if fiscal stimulus, FED/CB stimulus, and MMT will continue unchallenged? You two would be some of the smartest in the room, yet seemed reluctant to offer much to explain investing or outcomes in an MMT world. It would make any intelligent forecasting redundant wouldn't it? No one (politician) will take away the drug of stimulus now it is unleashed. No politician would commit suicide like that. Already in Australia there are hints at taking away some of the stimulus (free childcare) and people are up in arms The govt is propping up parts of housing, considering measures for Arts (because they missed out). local tourism etc etc. Even Gerard mentioned they will likely extend current measures. Are we seeing in the current rally the consequences of an MMT world if that's what it's called - where government fiscal stimulus replaces the private sector? The corporate solvency problem should be a massive factor, yet the share price v bond price of some distressed companies is amazing. Blaming RobinHood investors is a cop out as surely some serious shorting of those companies would be profitable for serious hedge funds? Yet the solution is that the FED buys it all and then just "magics it" away by holding on to it forever. Same as distressed EU banks - create an EU bank which buys up all the loans and then sits on them for 1000's of years. Then have a debt jubilee. There is no consequence for anything it seems. How can that work? Everyone gets to drive a volvo (I like that example Gerard)? There seems to be something off in all of this? Perhaps reflected in the admission that the current rally in stocks and currencies is "confusing". Gold going nowhere, bitcoin held in a kung-fu grip. I can't help wonder. Thanks again for the interview.
    • IP
      IDA P.
      9 June 2020 @ 06:05
      FED QE is very different from ECB QE, the first one worked in that it recapitalized the banks, the ECB one didn't work, the banks have bounced this week but are at record lows in general. QE makes everyone think that solvency problems are solved, they are not. The problem I can't figure out is: maybe the FED knows that there will be no jobs and so is trying to turn everyone into day traders? or maybe they are really trying to collapse the dollar by 30%? maybe they won't succeed but I really wonder what the FED thinks when they see Warren Buffett punished for evaluating risk and gamblers and moral hazard awarded
  • CM
    Cory M.
    8 June 2020 @ 22:45
    One of the GREATEST INTERVIEWS EVER. And I appreciate the little subtitle which explains the acronym.
    • DK
      Daniel K.
      9 June 2020 @ 05:17
      Shanti, level of debt in Oz doesn’t preclude fighting inflation with rate increase. But amount of mortgages going under water in such instance would give RBA lots of reason to think twice. Inflation concern seem to be quite low atm, though?
  • IP
    IDA P.
    9 June 2020 @ 05:16
    I love analysts with a sense of humor, he's cool
  • NL
    Nikola L.
    9 June 2020 @ 03:02
    Brazil keeps saving AUD - simple. But if China goes ahead with preventing its tourists and students coming to Australia AUD can sinks real fast down to 50c. And if, at same time, Brazil gets their act together and start increasing Iron Ore production then AUD is the best short ever. But, I still plan to wait if aud gets to 72c before shorting it.
    • SS
      Shanthi S.
      9 June 2020 @ 04:41
      Agree!!
  • SS
    Shanthi S.
    9 June 2020 @ 04:39
    Brilliant interview! Have been looking forward to this! Love Gerard and Raoul of course. Thank you both!
  • CB
    Chris B.
    8 June 2020 @ 23:51
    Excellent interview as I enjoyed hearing the Aussie view of the world; very informative and nicely managed by Raoul
    • SS
      Shanthi S.
      9 June 2020 @ 04:31
      Agreed. Raoul’s a great interviewer.
  • hb
    huey b.
    9 June 2020 @ 03:22
    This is the content I am here for.
  • NL
    Nikola L.
    9 June 2020 @ 03:08
    lol.. the grinning face of Raul.. when asked the question - When? In regards to when Banks will ask Home Loan holders to start paying their loans again. If it wasn't for his ears I think side-ends of his lips would have meet at the back of his head. lol
  • DS
    David S.
    9 June 2020 @ 01:33
    Honest and direct interview. Well done. DLS
  • DG
    Dave G.
    8 June 2020 @ 23:36
    Sounds like a ton of risk out there and stonks don't care and none of it is priced in. Last time we seen this type of Robinhood day trading, tech melt up was 1999/2000. Will this time be different? I wouldn't bet on it. I wouldn't think we have to wait too long for the market to catch on but who would have thought the market would bounce like this either. The question remains is this a bear market rally or not?
    • mB
      marc B.
      9 June 2020 @ 00:42
      Earnings are going down. As investors don’t we buy future earnings? I think we will have our day. Speculation seems ridiculous high. People are buying bankrupt stocks.
  • PT
    Peter T.
    8 June 2020 @ 23:47
    All roads lead to BTC . Gold has not broken all time high ? The world is going digital the voice of authority is coming to a end. The people have a solution the politicians that endorse the peoples solutions will be voted in the ones that don't will be voted (or thrown) out.
    • mB
      marc B.
      9 June 2020 @ 00:40
      Yes. But gold is a physical asset. Still has place. I’m fascinated by the lower volatility of btc is this because of halving?
  • AN
    Andrew N.
    8 June 2020 @ 23:56
    Great interview! I would like to have Gerard back to steelman MMT, especially in the US. My understanding is that it relies on government to raise taxes in order to head off inflation. I would love if he could explain how the US Congress will do this in a responsive and reliable way. Haha By the way, is there any chance RV could reorganize the comments section? Everyone is so smart I feel the need to read through everything before I comment...but there's no organization and a bit overwhelming, and no way to know if someone has responded to you. Maybe set it up like reddit, with topics, and have notification of responses by email?
    • mB
      marc B.
      9 June 2020 @ 00:38
      I agree. There is a ton of value in the comments section. Way better than fin twit
  • mB
    marc B.
    9 June 2020 @ 00:34
    How & what would fiscal policy have on global markets? What has this look like historically? Great interview. Who are the winners & losers?
  • JK
    Johan K.
    8 June 2020 @ 14:10
    Thanks for the great insights. A question I’ve not yet heard an answer to: Let’s assume central banks take the majority of corporate debt onto their balance sheet via asset purchases in the corporate bond market. What would the economic consequences be if they simply write off the debt (jubilee) versus if the debt stays on the central bank balance sheets? Who would feel the pain of a jubilee? Certainly there would be consequences? Otherwise it would have been done a long time ago.
    • RM
      Robert M.
      8 June 2020 @ 15:42
      While I can see the Fed buying corporate bonds, it would go beyond any political reality I can imagine that the Fed would actually forgive this debt. Can you imagine how this would go over on main street? And how do you differentiate by what debt you buy and forgive and debt you don't forgive? Talk about buying gold or bitcoin if the Fed were to make this move. And what about buying private debt? Such a move would create a huge cry from the general population where they would view this as their tax dollars helping out a bunch of reckless debt-loaded companies to enrich their shareholders and CEOs. Just will not fly.
    • SM
      Sergio M.
      9 June 2020 @ 00:08
      Why not bail out everyone then?
  • JR
    Josh R.
    9 June 2020 @ 00:02
    Great interview, thanks for looking after your Aussie mates!
  • JG
    Johan G.
    8 June 2020 @ 14:39
    Thanks RP and Gerard for a great analysis of the global issues as seen from Down Under! Since I broadly agree with Gerards views, I have to sit back and analyze if my applause is caused by 'confirmation bias' ; it is so easy to sit comfortably in your own echo chamber! From the 'top of the world', Scandinavia, I have made up my own view of what could possibly happen longer term in Europe going forward. First, I totally agree that Europe needs to be in crisis to make important changes. That crisis seems to be coming. But lets not forget that crisis according to the Chinese is made up of two words, Danger and Opportunity. I think we all see the dangers, but I believe that a lot of forces are now coming together to push Europe in a direction where they will take those opportunities to go forward. And for those who think the EU will break apart; I think there is only one parameter relevant for this question: Does the Franco-German axis hold. All else follows. Europe really needs to achieve independence in three areas: 1. Energy 2. Monetary/currency 3. Military. 1.Energy:Since Europe is a net importer of fossil fuel, going forward with a massive investment program in renewables is logical and it will provide both energy independence and jobs/growth in the aftermath of the Covid 19. MMT would be put to productive investment. Solar in the south and windpower in the north. We know it will work. 2.Monetary:In order for this to happen EU needs to be made into some sort of fiscal union. We see the first signs of this happening, and the Covid 19 crisis and the weaponising of the USD will push it forward. Also the deglobalisation will make Germany and the rest of the north more dependant on the EU market to sell their industrial products, since protectionism increases elsewhere. As a result it will not be only the south that has problems; also the north will have problems. The German car industry is hemmorhaging at present. This could create the common basis for a common policy response, and a Euro bond market. The Euro currency would then be quite attractive as an alternative to the USD. 3.Military: The UK is leaving the EU, which means that the road is now 'open' towards further deepening of the military/defence arm of the EU. Externally, Erdogan has proven to not be a friend of Europe, and the message is well understood. Note how his last attempt to throw refugees at Europe fell flat on its face. And Trump has proven to the Germans that relying on the US for defence can no longer be taken for granted. Merkel has said publicly that Europe has to make its own destiny. The US has sanctioned the Nordstream pipeline from Russia to Germany, because it will reduce the US's influence in Europe. Work has stopped because the private contractors cannot stand up to the US sanctions, but the Germans say that the project will be completed, one way or another. France has said it will modernise its nuclear weapons, and all European countries are increasing their military expenditures. With the coming MMT and unemployment, and its big arms industry,Europe has the means and the reason to rebuild its military. Europe just needs to hold its own against Russia, 500Million in the EU against 150 Million Russians. How difficult could that be if the need and will is there? I think 1,2 and 3 mutually reinforce each other. This could take a decade, but I think it will come. It just makes perfect sense for Europe to do it. Sorry for being so long...
    • DS
      David S.
      8 June 2020 @ 16:58
      Good comments. What do you think about the breakup of the Euro? DLS
    • JG
      Johan G.
      8 June 2020 @ 18:22
      Many outcomes are of course possible. Some of the weaker countries could leave, but I really do not think that is the most likely outcome. The reason being that these countries have already suffered the consequences of the strong Euro, and to a large degree(Greece) taken the medicine. There is no further downside to staying, private sector is growing again. And their proximity to Turkey means they want Europe to stay in Greece. Italy is only partly fixed, but note that economically Italy is really two countries. North of Rome as wealthy as the rest of northern Europe, and south of Rome more like Greece. I hear frustration from Italy, but no strong, consistent force for leaving the Euro. As for Spain,and then implicitly Portugal, it is a different case. They seem very happy with staying.(never unanimous of course) Germany will never leave in my humble opinion. The attitude of my German friends is basically' we screwed up Europe twice, that's enough'. So I expect the Euro to muddle through, imperfect as it is, TINA holds also in this case. If the weak countries break out, that would still leave a Euro zone with about as many inhabitants as the US, and only the strongest countries left, so it will hardly disappear.
    • DS
      David S.
      8 June 2020 @ 22:40
      Johan G. - Thanks for the update. I think that TINA - there is no alternative - is reasonable for now, especially during UK exit from EU and COVID-19. Could each country issue independent bonds? They would be at a much higher rates for some but eliminate the co-guarantee of all the other members. It would have been smart to do this in the beginning as it would have provided for the credit worthiness of each country. DLS
    • DS
      David S.
      8 June 2020 @ 22:56
      WWI and WWII were terrible for anyone involved. It has been 75 years, however, since the end of WWII. It is time that the German people move forward without this guilt trip. Much of the blame for WWII goes to unreasonable war reparations in WWI. I do not see Japan and Italy saddled with this gilt trip. DLS
  • TB
    Tobin B.
    8 June 2020 @ 22:31
    Good talk guys thanks. Why does everyone know about the US? Even senators involved.. I don't even know who the prime minister of Australia is, or if even that's what they are called. This will change in time
  • KR
    Kartik R.
    8 June 2020 @ 22:03
    At 34.08 min, regarding the Aussie dollar bounce - the market is signaling reduced growth and increasing inflation (i.e. stagflation). That explains the bounce in utes, reits, TIPS and non-USD commodity currencies (e.g. CAD, AUD) but financials and industrials are not reflating at the same rate. I think in the fight between inflation and deflation, the market is pricing the in-between-scenario (stagflation). Position yourself accordingly. Good luck!
  • pd
    peter d.
    8 June 2020 @ 21:19
    he said "could bring an end to the secular nation state era". jesus christ
  • DS
    David S.
    8 June 2020 @ 17:17
    Is it possible that one reason the market is going up rapidly is the anticipation of a sharp increase in inflation despite the problems in the economy and COVID-19 second wave? Rising inflation, rising asset prices. DLS
    • DS
      David S.
      8 June 2020 @ 20:40
      The only way out, especially after the second coronavirus wave, is to print lots and lots of fiat cash - a zero coupon bond. Small economies will go bankrupt. large economies will rise and fall on the FX markets. As the second wave hits, the markets may go down. That will be another buying opportunity as MMT will inflate all surviving assets. DLS
  • TK
    Toby K.
    8 June 2020 @ 20:37
    Smashed it. Again. One of the best macro thinkers of our time.
  • TE
    Tito E.
    8 June 2020 @ 11:49
    When (as in that Draghi quote) there is talk of cancellation of private debt: does this refer to business debts or personal too? Are there any precedents involving, for example, cancellation of private mortgage debt of populous ? Anyone out there know about this?
    • PE
      Paul E.
      8 June 2020 @ 20:27
      Porter Stansberry has written extensively on debt jubilee history. His latest book The Battle For America has a chapter on it.
  • JI
    Jose I.
    8 June 2020 @ 19:55
    Excellent interview today! It would be great to have Gerard Minack back after the summer for an update.
  • NR
    Nathan R.
    8 June 2020 @ 19:41
    Hmmm, a melodramatic Italian with a gun....
  • TS
    Thomas S.
    8 June 2020 @ 12:41
    Interesting video. thank you. for a small retail investor, what is a good way to go short the yuan/renminbi ?
    • JC
      Jack C.
      8 June 2020 @ 12:44
      I looked into this back in 2015, Saxo Bank give their customers the ability to buy put option on USD/CNY
    • GP
      Glen P.
      8 June 2020 @ 14:29
      I just signed with Saxo what would your review of them be as well as the mobile platform? I couldn't find another retail platform that gave me exposure to TSX Venture
    • DS
      David S.
      8 June 2020 @ 17:02
      Careful on sizing. Shorting is the deep end of the pool. You can be right on direction, but wrong on timing. DLS
    • PB
      Patrick B.
      8 June 2020 @ 18:56
      Why bother with the RMB? Much more obvious EM FX shorts out there like the Lira, Rand, Real, Pesos... AUD
    • MT
      Mike T.
      8 June 2020 @ 19:27
      There is a CNH/USD Futures contract listed on the Hong Kong Futures Exchange as supported on Interactive Brokers https://www.interactivebrokers.co.uk/en/index.php?f=41295&exch=hkfe&showcategories= FYI a new Chicago based futures exchange entitled 'The Small Exchange' opened last week and they have their own bespoke USD Index Futures FXSME which is 25% Chinese Renminbi. Initial Margin is just $159, 1 tick = $1, cash settled. https://smallexchange.com/
  • MT
    Mark T.
    8 June 2020 @ 19:15
    I enjoyed this interview, thanks.
  • DM
    Dominic M.
    8 June 2020 @ 17:46
    Smart and meaty, 10/10. TY gentlemen.
  • TP
    Timothy P.
    8 June 2020 @ 17:34
    "I'm quite partial to MMT" He didn't seem to be kidding, either. What? I thought he knew macro, not this idiocy of endlessly expanding balance sheets in hope of stirring up inflation. Big strike against Mr Minack, in my book.
  • BS
    Bevyn S.
    8 June 2020 @ 16:11
    Wow. Gerard is a brilliant. Thanks a ton for this RV. Definitely someone else I need to follow....
  • TC
    Thomas C.
    8 June 2020 @ 15:42
    Excellent interview and really interesting guest. Lots of original and direct ideas with no fluff.
  • MB
    Matt B.
    8 June 2020 @ 14:15
    The 61.8% retracement was a hoax.
  • GL
    G L.
    8 June 2020 @ 13:47
    Great interview - thank you! I don't see any sustainable recovery (even with central banked fiscal expansion) without government policies to support and boost housing markets in the US, UK, EU and Australia. On Sweden, the reason its macro picture has been weak despite an informal lockdown is because its economy is highly reliant on exports and global trade. Sweden is basically an industrial engineering exporter. So I don't think policymakers in Sweden would be surprised by the dip in economic performance, frankly. Their light touch lockdown was not really driven by economics, as they are fully aware of their reliance on external demand. Reporting of this in the fin press (Bloomberg, FT, etc) to ram home the point that even light lockdowns don't save economies have slightly missed the point.
  • JK
    Jonathan K.
    8 June 2020 @ 12:44
    Haha "married me for good times and bad times, but not lunch times".
    • FK
      Firoze K.
      8 June 2020 @ 13:36
      Made me chuckle too!
  • CD
    C D.
    8 June 2020 @ 13:29
    Nice work GM! Morrison/Frydenberg ride into town on their horses... backwards. Like a scene form “Three Amigos”.
  • BS
    Benjamin S.
    8 June 2020 @ 08:48
    Is there anywhere we can follow Gerard? I appreciate his views on the Australian economy.
    • JC
      Jack C.
      8 June 2020 @ 12:49
      This recent piece published on Evergreen Gavekal is worth a read. https://blog.evergreengavekal.com/how-the-virus-crisis-will-change-investment-strategy/
  • KD
    Kaj D.
    8 June 2020 @ 12:25
    Excellent, thx Gerard & Raoul. I totally appreciate how much you share your views. Really helpful, thought provoking.
  • js
    jeffrey s.
    8 June 2020 @ 12:20
    First rate guest. Clear responses with detailed theses and counterarguments. Really enjoyed it.
  • AP
    Antoni P.
    8 June 2020 @ 12:11
    Really great and insightful Interview. More of you Raoul, more of such good talks.
  • WA
    Wissam A.
    8 June 2020 @ 10:31
    From the book Lords of Finance – The Bankers Who Broke the World by Liaquat Ahamed: "Von Havenstein faced a real dilemma. Were he to refuse to print the money necessary to finance the deficit, he risked causing a sharp rise in interest rates as the government scrambled to borrow from every source. The mass unemployment that would ensue, he believed, would bring on a domestic economic & political crisis, which in Germany’s current fragile state might precipitate a real political convulsion. As the prominent Hamburg banker Max Warburg, a member of the Reichsbank’s board of directors, put it, the dilemma was ‘whether one wished to stop the inflation & trigger the revolution,’ or continue to print money. Loyal servant of the state that he was, Von Havenstein had no wish to destroy the last vestiges of the old order." The fact is the debts have reached a stage where they cannot be paid back. The US, EU, Britain, Japan, China, and all the highly indebted economies in the world have no choice but to either default/restructure or inflate them away through currency debasement and inflation. This is a great quotation from FOFOA and to all those deflationists out there: "My friend, debt is the very essence of fiat. As debt defaults, fiat is destroyed. This is where all these deflationists get their direction. Not seeing that hyperinflation is the process of saving debt at all costs, even buying it outright for cash. Deflation is impossible in today's dollar terms because policy will allow the printing of cash, if necessary, to cover every last bit of debt and dumping it on your front lawn! (smile) Worthless dollars, of course, but no deflation in dollar terms! (bigger smile)". Here is the link to the above quote and it is a great read http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2010/09/just-another-hyperinflation-post.html As Kiril Sokolof said to Raoul "Gold is easy ..."
    • TE
      Tito E.
      8 June 2020 @ 12:02
      Nothing is easy
  • WW
    Warwick W.
    8 June 2020 @ 10:53
    Great guest and interview. Gerard's responses and views were cogent and easy to follow. Could have listened for a lot longer and it didn't feel like an hour. Great to get perspectives on other markets like Australia as well. Well done RV!
  • JV
    Jonny V.
    8 June 2020 @ 09:44
    Awesome interview with lots of good and useful insights. Obviously a very sharp and clear mind, really appreciate the clarity of his communication and willing to express his views clearly. Really hope we will get to hear him again as this develops. Always good to also get more perspectives from outside the US/UK. Would be interesting to get some fresh perspectives on the EU/EUR from the inside, Italy, France, Germany etc, providing the inside-looking-out, to contrast the outside-looking-in perspectives.
    • CT
      Chris T.
      8 June 2020 @ 10:43
      Patrick Artus would be interesting to have on for an interview
  • JG
    Jason G.
    8 June 2020 @ 09:08
    What a fantastic discussion! Thank you Raoul and Gerard for sharing your thoughts in a way that financial novices like myself can understand (even if only barely). Keep up the great work RV!
  • TN
    Tim N.
    8 June 2020 @ 08:58
    Excellent conversation. However, I think that the long term risks of MMT have been down played even though there may be short or medium term benefits. I am not convinced governments can be trusted to spend printed money productively or with adequate restraint cf. the last 50 years. Ultimately state investments will squeeze out the private sector and we will end up in communist or crony capitalist dystopia.
  • RC
    Robert C.
    8 June 2020 @ 08:57
    Raoul and team, thanks for extending the line of questioning to Asia and Australasia. It really helps bring into play the considerations into the macro view outside of the US/Europe narrative. It's a good feeling to have someone with so much experience see the same thing you are seeing (specifically the Australia and NZ economies) be equally as confused on WTF is going on. Could this been a regular line of questioning to your guests in the future?
  • JB
    Jamie B.
    8 June 2020 @ 08:49
    Great interview Raoul, Gerard is one of those few people who you could listen to for hours and not disagree with. He makes complete sense and has the foresight to understand the nuances of a Macro picture. He makes me proud to be an Aussie.
  • Dd
    David d.
    8 June 2020 @ 07:00
    I understand why RP reads his stuff. Pruned of excess, not a word wasted, resonant with reality. Thanks guys.