Interview with Martin Armstrong

Published on
March 18th, 2016
55 minutes

Interview with Martin Armstrong

The Interview ·
Featuring Martin Armstrong

Published on: March 18th, 2016 • Duration: 55 minutes

Martin Armstrong, President of Armstrong Economics, speaks with Real Vision in a fascinating interview on business cycles, and his outlook on the future of the global economy. Martin looks to history to illustrate the ebb and flow of the business cycle and discusses his forecasts of a sovereign debt crisis, capital flow returning to Asia from the West, a dramatic rise in the U.S. dollar, and the fiscal policy that will be implemented to address these events.


  • BP
    Byron P.
    3 August 2020 @ 00:15
    Absolute legend!
  • vp
    vasilis p.
    8 May 2018 @ 20:19
    Watching it 2 years later and interest rates, USD & Gold reacted exactly as he said!
    • DH
      Daniel H.
      16 February 2020 @ 13:25
      love hiki
  • DS
    David S.
    28 July 2018 @ 19:13
    It seems like the European national banks used negative interest rates to build up their reserves, i.e., a wealth tax. DLS
  • DS
    David S.
    28 July 2018 @ 19:11
    The socialization of the US includes Wall Street, bankers and pensioners as the 'government' tries to save everyone. DLS
  • DS
    Daniel S.
    3 May 2017 @ 17:54
    Excellent conversation, pragmatic and clear. Need to bring him back for year end review. Thank you RV.
  • TL
    T L.
    4 April 2017 @ 12:21
    bring him back! not as streamlined as many others
  • JH
    Joel H.
    12 January 2017 @ 05:00
    Great interview.
  • JF
    John F.
    31 October 2016 @ 15:33
    Martin is brilliant because he is a true researcher. His forecast for the correction, gold and the pull-up of the Sp500 concurs with my own. His critics are like Trump in the apprentice: "Think for me or you are fired". They criticize to keep you laying the gift of knowledge at their feet.
  • SG
    Siddharth G.
    14 September 2016 @ 14:54
    To all those who are bewildered about a potential US default because "US can just print more money", the other very crucial part of the issue is if someone is willing to buy what you have to sell. If the markets stop bidding for US paper, then no matter what Washington does, it will NOT be able to sell it and borrow money.
  • NI
    Noor I.
    13 June 2016 @ 10:07
    I thought he said bonds would crash on his turn date in 2015,75 ? Gold was meant to bottom in 2013 as per his dates now 2017 LOL... The guy makes up stuff as he goes along and is worshiped...
  • TF
    Trey F.
    26 April 2016 @ 02:40
    Cannot believe he compares the Mainz Default to a potential US default. How does a Gov default on debt denominated in its domestic currency? It Doesn't.
  • TF
    Trey F.
    25 April 2016 @ 21:04
    "We have to normalize rates" "how do you normalize in an economy that barely grows?" "It barely grows because interests rates are so low" Circular reasoning at its finest, Martin. starts at 19:47
  • lm
    laura m.
    8 April 2016 @ 01:02
    As an example, he predicted the current December low in gold to the week in his gold report written in 2013. How many analysts you know that have done the same? I recommend The Forecaster film.
  • lm
    laura m.
    8 April 2016 @ 01:00
    Interesting comments here. Yes, Martin is not the most coherent commentator, but his track record speaks volumes of the man's understanding of the markets.
  • SB
    Stephen B.
    4 April 2016 @ 10:22
    For me, he has the best record of analysis. I could listen to him all day. OK, so he is not the best communicator but so what? Watch CNBC if you prefer silver toungued pundits that haven't a clue.
  • NT
    Norman T.
    29 March 2016 @ 04:07
    Those of you evincing confusion, watch again; and again. The cycles are the framework and he will not give a forecast for next month!
  • NT
    Norman T.
    29 March 2016 @ 04:04
    At last someone agrees with me that demand drives interest rates and rates drive inflation (he didn't say that, but take a look)
  • SL
    Steven L.
    29 March 2016 @ 02:50
    I'm was interested in his viewpoint and happy to watch this piece but I wouldn't vote to see another interview with MA.
  • GM
    Greenlight M.
    28 March 2016 @ 18:30
    Interesting view, however; i cannot see long treasury rates go up when the dollar strenghtens (inflow of capital) and when the world is going into depression.
  • AG
    Alexander G.
    27 March 2016 @ 15:19
    "Tell us something about your background" "We did Telex 50 years ago" Poor Raoul, tried to get some concrete stuff from MA, but all he got was incoherent commonplaces. What a wind bag!
  • tb
    todd b.
    25 March 2016 @ 11:30
    This is actually one of MA's more coherent interviews, thanks in part to Raoul's interviewing. Really pulled together all MA's ideas; his style and writings take a lot of getting used to.
  • AA
    Alexander A.
    25 March 2016 @ 09:23
    Talking about 'unconventional' thinking, it would be great to get Nassim Taleb on the show.
  • KC
    Kendrick C.
    25 March 2016 @ 08:55
    When yield goes up because of soveriegn default, i for sure wont dare to put money in stocks, even if they are historically positively correlated.
  • PF
    Peter F.
    24 March 2016 @ 10:01
    My first thumbs down for an interview. Someone who answers concise coherent questions with incoherent ramblings compromises this excellent Real Vision programme & does nothing to inspire confidence.
  • SW
    Simon W.
    21 March 2016 @ 16:52
    I understand the need for a framework which predicts the future. Comforting. Complex emergent systems don't lend themselves to such predictions.
  • DG
    Daan G.
    21 March 2016 @ 16:45
    @JN: Thanks, I think his analyses based on historical comparisons are interesting. I'm skeptical about his computer's more precise predictions. Good to know this wasn't one.
  • JN
    Jeff N.
    21 March 2016 @ 14:02
    @DG: Martin's 2015.75 was not a specific date that the world blows up but a turning point in which the Sovereign Debt Crisis picks up the pace. It also coincides with his War Cycle and others.
  • AE
    Alex E.
    21 March 2016 @ 11:52
    Cycles aren't perfect. There are always fluctuations, thus, market crashes can come years sooner or later. Why? Cuz markets are controlled by humans!!! MA may be off somewhat but his calls will happen
  • OD
    Orin D.
    21 March 2016 @ 10:41
    Terrible, it was an incoherent ramble. Its great that he is a man of history and everything is cycles but he is all over the place and doesnt have a clear train of thought
  • DG
    Daan G.
    21 March 2016 @ 08:26
    As far as I can see, events on this particular date have been underwhelming. Someone disagree? @MT: his dates are based on past turning points and extrapolations somehow based on the number Pi.
  • DG
    Daan G.
    21 March 2016 @ 08:20
    @JN: Shouldn't that have startend already at 2015.75, according to his prediction? (See
  • JN
    Jeff N.
    21 March 2016 @ 05:12 the U.S., there will be no other place for capital to go except into U.S. Equities, US$ and gold. Hopefully that helps explain Martin's position.
  • JN
    Jeff N.
    21 March 2016 @ 05:08
    Martin believes yields start going up next year because of the Sovereign Debt Crisis and a pension crisis which leads to a loss of confidence in govt. and muni bonds. With capital flows coming ....
  • CD
    Charles D.
    21 March 2016 @ 01:03
    What did he say?
  • MT
    20 March 2016 @ 23:06
    So how do his dates work i.e. 2015.75 ?I don't even understand how those are put together.
  • DG
    Daan G.
    20 March 2016 @ 22:41
    Throug his historical understanding is very interesting, his more recent predictions seem off. Take his 2015.75 (Oct. 1) sovereign debt big bang. Conditions may be in place, but his timing was wrong.
  • BL
    Barclay L.
    20 March 2016 @ 21:37
    Genius or fraudster? Those interested to understand more may want to read this interesting book: Not My Grandfather's Wall Street available on Amazon. Marty character within.
  • AH
    Andreas H.
    20 March 2016 @ 19:29
    Wow! Very interesting!
  • DG
    Daan G.
    20 March 2016 @ 17:01
    So the mechanism does seem possible to me. Not sure if it fully fits the present set of circumstances, though. Here, his vast hist. knowledge does earn him some cred. points, but that's not enough
  • DG
    Daan G.
    20 March 2016 @ 16:51
    Once defaults actually start, taxing is already too late. Also possible that political support will be lost before that with wild election outcomes. Would build a massive bubble, of course, as he says
  • DG
    Daan G.
    20 March 2016 @ 16:48
    @NF: Not sure. I can see the mechanism. If sovereign debts default, it will be dominos. UST's severely restructured and bank( accounts) up in smoke. Gold as safe haven? Yes. Equities too? Plausible.
  • SS
    Sam S.
    20 March 2016 @ 15:40
  • NF
    Nico F.
    20 March 2016 @ 13:51
    USTs are the dominant trade compared to equities when you're expecting the economy to become worse. There's a point to be made for gold, but not for equities. This doesn't make sense.
  • NF
    Nico F.
    20 March 2016 @ 13:45
    @DG Governments have the power to tax. That's why it makes no sense to pick equities over USTs in an end of the world scenario. Bullish on stocks = bullish on economy *or* CBs.
  • DG
    Daan G.
    20 March 2016 @ 12:40
    @Matthew: His view seems that government debt defaults will drive a flight of capital from government debt to the private sector (equity) +$ rising (up to 0.80 to the €) because US gov defaults last.
  • DF
    Dominic F.
    20 March 2016 @ 09:24
    I like Martin Armstrong. He studies history, understands markets and governments, but most of all he understands the behaviour of humans beings within these areas.
  • JS
    John S.
    20 March 2016 @ 07:07
    I found him to be rambling. So what's the specifics of his framework for analysis? Not impressed.
  • CW
    Christine W.
    20 March 2016 @ 04:56
    I appreciate the historical and cyclical view. On gold, what are his reasons for gold falling under 1000 before going higher? Many people seem to think gold falls again but it isnt happening.
  • CT
    Craig T.
    19 March 2016 @ 19:59
    Martin's thoughts and historical insights of how governments react to major economic shifts was worth the price of admission. Devalued Roman coins! We are already seeing the beginnings in the EU.
  • DH
    Dale H.
    19 March 2016 @ 18:52
    Thanks RV. It's great to learn more. Since entering the finance world I've found 1) a large # of very smart people and 2) an eye opening view on CB's, big banks, and govt BS. Public needs educating...
  • DG
    Daan G.
    19 March 2016 @ 18:41
    Here you can find all the resources Armstrong Economics provides to understand his work: Done some reading, but still not sure what to make of it.
  • DG
    Daan G.
    19 March 2016 @ 18:40
    This read discusses his work in a balance way. Does remain at the surface, though:
  • DH
    Dale H.
    19 March 2016 @ 18:19
    I have not taken notice of Armstrong (sceptical), but rent or buy The Forecaster from Vimeo. Can watch on computer or Apple TV etc. IWhen you buy it ($10)., you get extras. I am now fascinated. Hmmm
  • CM
    Charlie M.
    19 March 2016 @ 18:09
    Enjoyed this - only knew a little about Martin. Still have trouble accepting predictive frameworks based on year-based cycles/waves. Humans are still humans, but tech, perspective & behavior change?
  • PB
    Peter B.
    19 March 2016 @ 17:34
    My grandfather told me as a child "the more people think your crazy, the more your on the right track" this has proved correct time and time again..consensus is always wrong. BRILLIANT @raoul
  • ML
    Matthew L.
    19 March 2016 @ 17:19
    I really don't understand how he reconciles US Stocks and dollar going way up while the world economy goes to hell while US interest rates rise. It doesn't make sense to me.
  • LC
    Liliana C.
    19 March 2016 @ 16:58
    As to the US wanting to give up reserve currency status...maybe saying it to placate rest of world but i dont believe for a second that US would would want to really doit & give up the huge benefits
  • LC
    Liliana C.
    19 March 2016 @ 16:52
    I know nothing about the man, except that he seems to know history very well. That was truly fascinating. The predictions part, I don't think anyone can be certain of zilch. Strong $ very possible.
  • JP
    J P.
    19 March 2016 @ 16:15
    In crises, rules change. Hearing how some rules might be broken like converting bills to 10yr paper is invaluable.. An amazing think piece, worthy of this sire!
  • WM
    Will M.
    19 March 2016 @ 15:55
    Martin isn't the most eloquent speaker but his knowledge of financial history and his background as a floor trader makes him a top valuable financial commentator. See
  • JG
    James G.
    19 March 2016 @ 14:20
    DOW to real terms ...what would the PE be ? Already profits seem to have peaked and turned
  • KS
    Kathleen S.
    19 March 2016 @ 11:43
    I don't agree with M.A. ability to predict exact dates with tea leaves from history - do agree business cycle, history repeating, and that govt will do everything to keep ponizi going. Enjoyed.
  • MT
    19 March 2016 @ 11:02
    Pleaded guilty and convicted of fraud, involved with questionable people, says he can predict the future, yet has to sell reports for a living, no doubt he could be wrong yet not a gazillionaire. hmmm
  • NF
    Nico F.
    19 March 2016 @ 10:00
    The more things I read from or about Martin Armstrong the more skeptical I become – too many red flags for me. Sorry.
  • DG
    Dendy G.
    19 March 2016 @ 04:17
    Awesome been waiting for RV to bring him on
  • ss
    sid s.
    19 March 2016 @ 03:40
    wright when you think it doesn't get any better on real vision TV it does. thank you Raul. thank you Grant.
  • WR
    Wayne R.
    19 March 2016 @ 02:50
    He is not the best communicator given that he tended to ramble a bit. He never really answered Raoul's question regarding what his framework is and how he comes to his conclusions.
  • SB
    Stewart B.
    19 March 2016 @ 01:06
    Great interview. He has a really good knowledge of history and thinks deeply on things. Good to hear an alternative view. I'm a little puzzled on the drivers for Dow doubling. More QE?
  • JT
    Jane T.
    19 March 2016 @ 00:22
    Thank you for interviewing Martin. To think he was nearly beaten to death in jail and lost to us. Fleck has commented he is may be a nut... but if Fleck had followed his work on metals...
  • SA
    Scott A.
    18 March 2016 @ 22:32
    I would think his bullish Dow is driven by the increasing government control of assets. The feeling / belief that the US equity markets will be the last ones to fall. Hence more and more capital flows
  • BJ
    Brent J. | Contributor
    18 March 2016 @ 21:49
    whether you agree with him or not, you have to respect his intellect and vision. Not to mention what he has been through. Great interview
  • BB
    Brian B.
    18 March 2016 @ 20:28
    Martin's body of work cannot be absorbed in 60 mins. The man has unveiled enormous amounts of cyclical order in a very complex world. It spans far from just markets & advances many fields of knowledge
  • DM
    Dennis M.
    18 March 2016 @ 20:23
    OK. Had to stop halfway. Not interesting or educational. Like listening to my old Uncle telling stories of old. Love RV but not every interview will soar.
  • JD
    Jonathan D.
    18 March 2016 @ 20:21
    Raoul / Grant Thoughts on his vision for USTs please?
  • EL
    Elizabeth L.
    18 March 2016 @ 19:53
    Vikram, the Forecaster on Amazon is for Region 2, not compatible within USA DVD players. Anyone, Can Region 2 DVD's be played on Apple laptops???
  • AH
    Andy H.
    18 March 2016 @ 19:25
    I feel thouraghly dipressed after watching this. Normally I think ok, I can maybe get ahead of the curve but the more I think , the more I feel that we aren't safe in any asset. MA is interesting.
  • BL
    Barclay L.
    18 March 2016 @ 18:11
    Interesting anecdotal history vignettes, but bullish the Dow to double and yet bearish govt control of financial system into global reset by 2020? This seems like double-speak. Not crisp or useful.
  • BV
    Bryan V.
    18 March 2016 @ 17:37
    I get more from his history lessons and knowledge of markets than his forecasts which is a complexity of if this than that scenarios. I guess that It takes a complex guy to figure out a complex world.
  • DG
    Daan G.
    18 March 2016 @ 17:25
    What would drive the Dow to double from here in the next couple of years? Loss of trust in goverment bonds? Surely not earnings, right?
  • RA
    Ricardo A.
    18 March 2016 @ 17:12
    It made me realise in need to study more history. I thought I knew something. Get him again soon please
  • SC
    Sean C.
    18 March 2016 @ 16:46
    I didn't quite understand his forecast. He sees a correction in the Dow to 13000 somewhere and then it doubles with bonds lower and dollar higher?
  • GB
    Grant B.
    18 March 2016 @ 16:31
    Wow! Very insightful. Real Vision.
  • LM
    Leland M.
    18 March 2016 @ 15:43
    Timetables are dfifficult to predict but he victims aren't and the savers are soon to be slaughtered. NIRP and capital controls are coming and it doesn't seem like there will be anywhere to hide.
  • BM
    B. M.
    18 March 2016 @ 15:17
    excellent..historians often make the best economists
  • VS
    Vikram S.
    18 March 2016 @ 15:13
    Watch the Forecaster to learn what he's been through...he presents a deep distrust of government for good reason.
  • MS
    Michael S.
    18 March 2016 @ 14:29
    Another couple of hours please.