Jim Rogers on China: Challenge & Opportunity

Published on
October 4th, 2019
Duration
49 minutes

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104

Jim Rogers on China: Challenge & Opportunity

The Interview ·
Featuring Jim Rogers

Published on: October 4th, 2019 • Duration: 49 minutes

Jim Rogers has been fascinated by China since he drove his motorcycle across the country in the 1980s. The investing legend joins Real Vision to give his view of the rising Asian superpower and, more broadly, on rising Asia in general. Rogers provides his views on the Hong Kong crisis and the simmering trade war. He also weighs in on whether the era of US dollar primacy has passed — especially now that the United States has become, in Rogers' view, "the largest debtor nation in the history of the world." Filmed on September 10, 2019 in Singapore.

Comments

Transcript

  • HH
    Henry H.
    15 March 2020 @ 03:33
    1 0
    Real Vision, please remove the logo "China: Danger & Opportunity". It is completely inaccurate translation. The two Chinese characters together means and only means "crisis" and should not be translated in parts.
  • HH
    Henry H.
    15 March 2020 @ 03:33
    0 0
    Real Vision, please remove the logo "China: Danger & Opportunity". It is completely inaccurate translation. The two Chinese characters together means and only means "crisis" and should not be translated in parts.
  • FG
    Flavio G.
    20 December 2019 @ 21:45
    2 2
    China-perma-bull in a stock market that has gone sideways for a decade. CCP cheerleader.
  • jl
    james l.
    29 November 2019 @ 03:56
    2 0
    Why don't you live in ShangHai instead of Singarpore, if China is good engouh? He never tells the truth.
    • AH
      Alvin H.
      11 December 2019 @ 00:47
      1 0
      air pollution, he said.
  • MP
    Matthew P.
    8 October 2019 @ 17:17
    3 2
    terrible pretentious interviewer
    • AD
      Adrian D.
      27 November 2019 @ 03:28
      0 0
      He's not pretentious; he's just English (to paraphrase Bottle Shock).
  • RW
    R W.
    27 October 2019 @ 08:34
    0 0
    What the heck is going on with the globes in the background of this video? The wide shots have a large globe in the background with the Western hemisphere facing the camera, and the close-up shots have a medium globe with Asia facing the camera. There doesn't seem to be any disruption in the audio between the two shots. It seems decidedly odd. I suppose they recorded it twice.
    • DT
      Delvix T.
      15 November 2019 @ 15:39
      0 0
      If you look at the floor behind JR's chair, you can see the legs of some sort of furniture. I suspect he collects globes!
  • AB
    Adam B.
    27 October 2019 @ 07:04
    0 0
    Rogers is the epitome of a boomer with TDS.
  • MS
    Michael S.
    24 October 2019 @ 03:54
    0 0
    "Now we don't need Hong Kong anymore"?
  • AP
    Andrew P.
    4 October 2019 @ 22:10
    0 0
    Any guesses on Russian stock mentioned? Mobile telesystem maybe?
    • VK
      Vaclav K.
      22 October 2019 @ 05:44
      0 0
      Could it be a large Russian phosphorous/fertilizer company a s he mentioned here? https://internationalman.com/articles/jim-rogers-on-opportunities-in-russia-and-other-hated-markets/
  • PG
    Paul G.
    18 October 2019 @ 05:03
    0 0
    His views on China continue to be worrying as it portends the end of democracy
  • WW
    Wade W.
    15 October 2019 @ 03:42
    7 1
    I thought it was a great interview and the interviewer engaged just enough to let Jim speak about a variety of topics. And for you idiots that think Jim is old and doesn’t know about modern economics ... Lol .... you are going to be in for the surprise of your lifetime, and I don’t mean that in a good way.
  • TJ
    Tespry J.
    12 October 2019 @ 19:50
    5 0
    Anybody can call out "Recession" or "Depression" every month or year, just to wait until that happens. Also I can hardly find any reasoning behind his opinions. He might be a great trader; however, I can hardly find any insight or reasoning in most of his interviews.
    • JN
      Jason N.
      13 October 2019 @ 06:31
      1 0
      History is a good guide that he often refers to.
  • CW
    CC W.
    6 October 2019 @ 21:10
    7 2
    After watching the video. First impression is he still bashes the west while endorse the Chinese "market". My problem with his opinion is the trade war is not about trade. Its about survival of democracy in/around SE Asia and whether the democratic west continue to tolerate the actions of the communist party to allow it to expand with its influence. A big difference between corporate espionage for competitive purpose vs. state espionage for the purpose of oppressing your opposition (and friends) with force. I am surprised Jim still continue to buy into the "China Dream"
    • LM
      Lee M.
      12 October 2019 @ 16:47
      0 0
      Totally agree, it's manifested this way because Trump only has so many tools available to him as he lost the house. Tariffs is one of the tools he has control over.
  • GS
    Greg S.
    7 October 2019 @ 14:48
    6 1
    No IP theft by the Chinese??? A Chinese planted spy tried to steal all the code for Apples car project. This is one example of hundreds. No bailouts & will let companies go bankrupt? The Chinese have bailed in three banks this year alone. Seems jim has drunken the coolaid
    • RK
      Robert K.
      9 October 2019 @ 16:07
      1 1
      Well he is very much invested and by definition cannot be objective. Look at the recent NBA case - you tweet the truth and you'll get *ked immediately. The west unfortunately lost it's moral backbone and is corrupted by the fata morgana of chinese growth stories and promises of yields.
    • NA
      Nicolas A.
      10 October 2019 @ 07:42
      2 1
      Stephen Roach says the same thing. I highly doubt you can find "hundreds" of examples. Sure, there are some, but mostly it is business as usual as Jim describes. The exceptions are no different to any rising nation, as Jim describes also. No coolaid, just the way the world works. You may not like it, but the globe will keep on spinning anyway.
    • NA
      Nicolas A.
      10 October 2019 @ 07:46
      1 0
      @Robert whats the "truth"? That a region of another country that has never been independent OR democratic should now suddenly be both? The problem is despite all of Real Vision's efforts to talk about China even its viewers still don't get it, much less the NBA lol
    • SB
      Stephen B.
      10 October 2019 @ 16:25
      5 0
      What a lot of people do not understand about China is how tough the competition is, internally, to get ahead. With a billion people, it's a big deal to pass the entrance exams for an elite university (for example). Similarly, as a small business, or as an employee, getting ahead is far tougher than in the US. With that sort of mindset, stealing IP from your US employer or competitor can becomes a rational act, if it means you can get a little further ahead. I have seen this first hand, when my Chinese born boss (CEO) was literally handing over our IP (belonging to a Californian tech company) to our Chinese competitors, in advance of his moving back home. I figured it out what he was doing and reported it to the shareholders but they didnt want to believe it. I had to quit as I otherwise risked being complicit in the theft (my name being on key documents). Two years later the shareholders saw that I had been right and fired the guy but by then he had inflicted even more harm on the company. Be warned IP theft is not as rare as some suggest.
    • LM
      Lee M.
      12 October 2019 @ 16:45
      0 0
      China can't let too many companies go bankrupt because a stable economy is the main reason the CCP stays in power. Would you allow your freedoms be taken without any benefits?
  • SB
    Stephen B.
    10 October 2019 @ 16:49
    9 0
    The one issue that investors like Jim seem to overlook is that western prosperity has been built on a bedrock of democracy. Democracy does more than simply channel the majority view - it acts as a pressure relief valve. In the west, every 4 to 8 years, we change governments and for a period we temporarily inject hope and release accumulated tensions. China has no such relief valve. Since 1989, it gas bought time by buying the populace off with rapidly rising prosperity. Should the growth rate falter, there is no place for tensions to go other than in street protests. Jim is right, the American Century was not one uniterupted growth story but a series of booms and busts but, underneath it all, the U.S. had democracy to absorb the fall out. China does not.
  • PD
    Peter D.
    5 October 2019 @ 17:59
    4 6
    Rogers is right. "Intellectual property theft" is a scam thought up by trial lawyers to get rich. How's this: why doesn't America file a patent on the English language? Then it can call anyone it wants a "thief" and bomb the heck out of them. Microsoft "stole" the Windows idea from Apple who stole it from the Palo Alto Research Center. If you call that "theft" you stifle innovation. Property is what you can feel and touch. Ideas are free.
    • DS
      David S.
      5 October 2019 @ 18:12
      1 0
      I like property too, but it can be confiscated. Nothing is safe and it is hard to diversify for a meltdown and protect against counterparty risk. DLS
    • DR
      David R.
      5 October 2019 @ 20:54
      2 1
      DLS and Peter. All good points. As an "angmoh gweilo" (white foreigner) in Chinese Singapore, half a world away from home (30+ hours by passenger jet), I really worry about David' points. So are many others, judging by the boom in bunkers, loaded with food & weapons/ammo. Some of the uber-wealthy own those in more than one location - and I'd bet Jimmy does too but he'd never say so. In a breakdown of society, as Jimmy hints about, even gold & silver will be worth little. Clean freshwater and canned food could be at the top of the economic ladder. So I guess, invest in some of that near you if you're fortunate enough to not be stuck in an heavily-populated foreign part of the world as I am.
    • CW
      CC W.
      6 October 2019 @ 08:08
      2 0
      Problem with intellectual property theft with China is we are dealing with a state that has vast different ideology than what American (or the West) stands for. Vs. intellectual theft between Western companies. Issue here is not simply business or economic competition.
    • MJ
      Michael J.
      9 October 2019 @ 01:09
      1 0
      You don't have to believe in IP to see the issue. China forces companies to partner with domestic's and share the 'secret sauce' to access the market, that's an issue.
  • SL
    Sum L.
    8 October 2019 @ 04:55
    3 14
    this overrated old timer knows nothing about the world today. But dumb media keep bringing him back time after time again to feed a dumb crowd. That's a good thing because the majority loses. Btw, I hear more than a few times Jim Rogers keep saying he owns a lot of dollar, if you truly owns a lot you don't advertise it. Plain logic.
    • KE
      Kathryn E.
      8 October 2019 @ 21:05
      2 0
      Why wouldn't you advertise it?
  • cl
    connor l.
    8 October 2019 @ 18:58
    6 0
    Jim Rogers is a treasure chest and I am personally grateful to listen to him. Thank you.
  • DF
    David F.
    8 October 2019 @ 13:35
    5 0
    "I feel like he throws out a lot of opinions with little to no real support or analysis to back up his ideas." That is exactly what his employer said about him as a young man, only they were proved badly wrong because he is extremely thorough in his research. In fact, he knew pertinent things they themselves didn't. When he passes on we will find out exactly how successful he has been. Similarly, after the crisis has had its way, replay this interview and then mark his card. However, at this point in time, it is but good advice.
  • KA
    Kevin A.
    7 October 2019 @ 17:40
    11 1
    I don't have a problem with his views. I have a problem with his absolute certainty on everything of which he speaks. My approach as an investor is to question everything including my own views. Talk to me in probabilities; not "never" and "always" on every single issue.
  • CD
    Cheryl D.
    4 October 2019 @ 14:58
    9 1
    Wonder why he's living in Singapore and not China....
    • DR
      David R.
      4 October 2019 @ 16:34
      2 2
      Maybe it's because he pays no tax in Singapore except a 7% sales tax. That's my reason.
    • KA
      Kevin A.
      4 October 2019 @ 19:33
      2 0
      @David R, Singapore has an income tax but not a tax on interest and dividend income. There is also no capital gains tax. However, unless he has given up his US citizenship, he is writing a fat check to the US Treasury every year.
    • DR
      David R.
      5 October 2019 @ 00:00
      5 1
      Kevin, there's zero tax on investment income in Singapore as I know as I'm based here. That's my and presumably his only source of income. Also, there's no wealth tax like they will soon have in the rapidly decling and bankrupt USSA. Funny how the Americans always were saying that money markets in Europe or China or Japan would fail, when in fact they first failed in US two weeks ago... now the Fed is "financing" the bankrupt US gov't, Weimar style. Dollar setting up for an crash within reserve currency status will be forever lost soonafter. Americans' standard of living will plunge but they're brainwashed from the overload of BS raw-raw propaganda/lies they pummeled with constantly. LOL. It's gonna be an epic failure!
    • DR
      David R.
      5 October 2019 @ 00:03
      3 0
      ^ I hasten to add to mine above, I'd be saddened to see that unfold and hope I'm wrong. But (bipartisan) decades of mismanagement will have consequences.
    • KA
      Kevin A.
      7 October 2019 @ 17:33
      0 0
      @David R, I lived in Singapore for more than 20 years. I was referring to the global US income tax, which captures everything.
  • TB
    Timothy B.
    7 October 2019 @ 14:20
    2 0
    very good inside information about Hong Kong, China simply doesn't care, their plan is to gradually stop using the dollar, along with Russia, India, the Middle East, and Europe
  • NO
    N O.
    4 October 2019 @ 15:17
    19 4
    Forced myself to finish the interview after the 2 colossally ignorant comments in the beginning: 1. Noone cares about IP theft and 2, companies don't go bankrupt in the US. The company i used to work for had chinese copy cats sending our clients OUR DRAWINGs for equipment they were selling without our knowledge which killed us in china... and the same company (Weatherford) Just went bankrupt!!
    • FC
      Fractal C.
      4 October 2019 @ 15:42
      3 0
      I agree with your observations. I also thought on the same lines when I heard that
    • MZ
      Martin Z.
      5 October 2019 @ 06:51
      2 0
      He didn't say he thought it was a good thing or that he liked it. He said "it's the way the world works" and implied that efforts to stop it through things like punitive tariffs are bound to backfire. Of course, Trump "knows better than history" so his trade wars are going to cow the Chinese into innovating from scratch, just like - say, Microsoft, did, right?...And your company only went bankrupt because it wasn't TBTF. That's what he was referring to: the replacement of creative destruction with moral hazard. Obviously, nobody cares about a Weatherford.
    • KA
      Kelly A.
      6 October 2019 @ 16:16
      0 0
      Really. Your company went in to China not knowing about this? Sorry, but that was either ignorant or dumb. There is NO RULE of law there. Why do business in such a place?... Oh, Ah. A big market. Greed overruled rationality.
    • NO
      N O.
      7 October 2019 @ 14:01
      0 0
      So we should just accept that we have no legal recourse when someone shamelessly steals our tech? Martin, heard of Lehman? Jim Rogers says China is going to let BKs happen as they bail out 3/10 of their biggest regional banks and HNA bank. Laughable.
  • NI
    Nate I.
    6 October 2019 @ 22:03
    5 1
    I enjoy Jim Rogers. Wish I could sit down and chat with him.
  • ja
    juan a.
    6 October 2019 @ 21:02
    16 4
    The interviewer should have been Kyle Bass .... that would have been a great discussion. Keep it up.
  • PP
    Peter P.
    6 October 2019 @ 12:58
    7 5
    I feel like he throws out alot of opinions with little to no real support or analysis to back up his ideas. He has pushed investing in China for over a decade and been dead wrong on it for a decade. I am sure he will be correct eventually, but he missed the entire US bull market which is a colossal blunder. It might take another 30-50 years before he is correct. You may be dead before he is ever correct. He almost certainly will be.
    • CW
      CC W.
      6 October 2019 @ 20:58
      4 2
      He is correct about the boom of the China market for the past two decades. But those growth were not "open" to foreigners. While you are correct Jim Rogers did miss the entire bull market here in the US since the crisis. I think the best days are over for the Chinese. Not saying everything goes into toilet. But easy money were made from export and local RE/financial instruments.
  • BH
    Bin H.
    4 October 2019 @ 07:36
    4 0
    Like his investment style
    • tr
      tom r.
      5 October 2019 @ 20:25
      4 2
      I have never ever heard Trump advocate for a trade war. He only wants reciprocal trade or a level playing field. If you would have used a more informed interviewer he wouldn't have let that trade war crap stand. Only Trump has ever stood his ground on actual free trade. All past presidents just let trade partners abuse us. It's high time this stops.
    • KA
      Kelly A.
      6 October 2019 @ 16:21
      1 0
      Tom R. I used to believe that, too. Then, I realized those big companies that got "abused" went in with their eyes wide open. And, we taxpayers are picking up the tab. Those smart guys went in to China to boost their bonuses. They don't care about USA. Trump is not standing "his" ground... he is standing the ground to bail out the big companies that let their own personal greed rule.
  • AP
    Andrew P.
    4 October 2019 @ 21:34
    8 1
    No IP theft? 🤨
    • KA
      Kelly A.
      6 October 2019 @ 16:13
      1 2
      Do you think those companies really didn't know CCP would steal their secrets?! Come on. They knew. They wanted access to the markets. And, now, we taxpayers have to waste money to get them their money back. Wall Street caused the recession. Taxpayers bailed them out. Now this. Big companies rule the govt.
  • DR
    David R.
    5 October 2019 @ 00:35
    37 9
    It seems the tone of some ppl commenting is that Jim is a chinese shill. But I think he's a patriot. He retains US citizenship when instead he could easily have punted it years ago to become Singaporean - as I did - to become taxfree. Instead, he remains US and thus pays US income tax for which he gets no benefit other than the right to a passport which frankly is no better (and arguably worse) than a Singaporean passport. So a true patriot indeed. Jimmy may have a different perspective than some others, which comes from living abroad for many years in Asia, or maybe Europe, which exposes you to different experiences you don't get when staying put like a potted plant. Jimmy is one of the more refreshing voices on RV. I think I recall he was on in the first year too. Please bring him back again if possible.
    • DS
      David S.
      5 October 2019 @ 01:13
      9 0
      Well said. Mr. Rogers has been consistent for many years. He sees major contingent liabilities in the economy and the market. When the facts change he will act accordingly. Thanks David R. for supporting Mr. Roger's positions and all your comments on RVTV. DLS
    • WC
      Wilson C.
      5 October 2019 @ 06:23
      10 0
      the rhetoric of China stealing IP is very strong in western press including among RV commenters. I think Jim's point is that all countries grow through phases, and one phase they copy/imitate from others, and hopefully grow past that to innovation. Japan, Korea, even USA (back in 1800, with UK textile mftg). Remember the japanese car, Datsun? not really that good. China's progressing super fast in innovation, read Kai-fu Lee's AI Super-powers book. From my own experience back in mid-90's working for global telecom company, we were super eager to enter the chinese market and established several JV's, whereby we inject IP and money, the local partners provided land / people. Got swindled not by the CCP, by local businessmen. It was the wild west, too many swindlers looking to make a quick buck off naive companies salivating at entering the chinese market. China didn't have the legal and IP protection back then. I'm sure there are state sponsored IP theft but most (IMHO) are regular businesses playing hard and loose within the chinese legal framework.
    • RK
      Roger K.
      5 October 2019 @ 14:30
      1 10
      #CCPAgent alert!!!
    • AP
      Anthony P.
      5 October 2019 @ 19:01
      6 0
      When people comment about Jim being a Chinese shill who left the US I commonly reply by stating, "Jim did not leave the US, the US left Jim."
    • EK
      Edward K.
      6 October 2019 @ 14:05
      1 0
      I wish there was a counterpart to the "ad hominem" argument which stigmatizes the points made on basis of some alleged character defect. Conversely should invent an "ad gloriam" argument which uses character virtue to ad imputed validity. Strictly speaking the individual already has or must have credibility to start. Question is what are they saying.
  • RB
    Rahul B.
    6 October 2019 @ 13:22
    10 9
    Not the right person to be interviewing Jim Rogers... at all
  • KK
    Ketan K.
    6 October 2019 @ 11:11
    8 6
    What a terribly poor interviewer. Completely oblivious to assets being given by Jim and completely superficial airhead type follow ups. wow ruined it for me.
  • dd
    david d.
    4 October 2019 @ 08:27
    10 9
    jim rogers has been wrong for about 30 years
    • JL
      J L.
      4 October 2019 @ 17:11
      4 0
      go ahead and take the other side
    • dd
      david d.
      4 October 2019 @ 17:57
      4 1
      I have taken the opposite side many times
    • DR
      David R.
      5 October 2019 @ 00:09
      2 0
      So then how has he become a multi-billionaire?
    • dd
      david d.
      5 October 2019 @ 12:28
      1 0
      george soros and taking fees, not alone with his own money for sure
    • dd
      david d.
      5 October 2019 @ 12:29
      2 0
      btw he is not a billionaire
    • PS
      Paul S.
      6 October 2019 @ 07:47
      2 0
      Commodities (copper from $0.80c to $4) from 2004 would suggest this is incorrect He literally wrote a book suggesting getting long
  • SG
    Steve G.
    6 October 2019 @ 01:39
    4 0
    Respectfully, the turn on Brussels really began when Brexit voted in and many leaders began to understand Brussels had failed, and such a colossal turn could happen to their economy. Mixed with further deterioration of specific economies and the structure that augments Germany and France only to see Itally and Greece rot, et al an overall bifurcation of the Eurozone economies essentiall. Essentially, The Euro experiment is bogus. So will disagree with Jim here on staying in the Euro. As well, England will have its currency hit, but then cut rates, which they have held off on, and will eventually strike beneficial unilateral deals, and with their currency at par to various countries begin a season of renewed extended growth. Of course, world growth will matter. This is a 1 to 3 years away. I think Jim discounts that if Trump wins second term and China's manufacturing is decimated and moved elsewhere, you are buying a country for what? It's not as simple as he thinks. Ultimately what is China. Even with billions in PE and FDI, its what then as this accelerates. China is now in a constant downtrend of growth - their numbers are lies. and the debt in the country exceeds all, which he got wrong, because of the unreported debt. To end complimentary, Jim sees the world far different then most. And I appreciate this interview. Always interesting.
    • DS
      David S.
      6 October 2019 @ 04:02
      4 3
      I think you have pegged China wrong. A thousand problems like the rest of us, but they will continue as the second largest economy and grow. DLS
  • GG
    Gary G.
    6 October 2019 @ 03:44
    2 2
    The best!!!
  • ZY
    ZHENG Y.
    6 October 2019 @ 02:57
    2 1
    I would like to read more about the peg of HKD, and their central bank history. Which I think is the last defence line for investor in HK, and capital to stay in HK, once that broken. It is the real end of HK in my view.
  • TD
    Taylor D.
    6 October 2019 @ 01:50
    3 0
    I like his Russian Sovereign Bond idea in RUB but how do you buy them from the U.S.? He’s right, they’re extremely pessimistic on them over there.
  • RG
    Razmig G.
    6 October 2019 @ 00:45
    9 6
    I could've googled any youtube video of Jim & he'd sound the same. ZERO new insight. Interviewer doesn't challenge his viewpoints. Moreover the title of the interview is wrong. It should be called how to bash the west. Two thumbs down.
  • RG
    Razmig G.
    6 October 2019 @ 00:11
    20 3
    Would have loved to see Kyle Bass interview Jim Rogers. Would've been a great way to see through the BS. I feel Jim Rogers has some dough in China he can't pull out :)
  • CL
    Christopher L.
    5 October 2019 @ 00:01
    3 2
    Jim twice stated Ben Bernanke said the Federal Reserve could 'buy anything' and that nothing in its charter would forbid the FED from buying stocks or ETFs or anything else. I'm thinking he's wrong and that BB said no such thing.
    • DR
      David R.
      5 October 2019 @ 00:54
      1 0
      You're right, but its charter can (and probably will?) be changed. Same legal status for NIRP according to Dr Lacy Hunt.
    • CL
      Christopher L.
      5 October 2019 @ 09:30
      2 0
      I'm thinking that asking for these authorities to be placed in its charter would take a huge political battle...and if the FED pushed for such capabilities, it would not succeed in getting them.
    • DR
      David R.
      5 October 2019 @ 10:19
      1 0
      Right again, Christoper, at least according to what Dr Hunt says, again. Let's hope it doesn't happen, but there's no telling what the future may bring from policymakers. Helicopter money and debt jubilees (for government, not you haha) are being seriously discussed around the world, yikes.
    • DS
      David S.
      5 October 2019 @ 18:21
      1 0
      At the lower boundary of interest rates, the Fed is ineffectual anyway. The major effect is algos adding air to the market balloon. If the US wanted to buy stocks, corporate bonds, ETFs, the Treasury would be the likely purchaser. If there were a problem for the Treasury, it could buy billions before the law was tested in court. It would be a disaster, but they seem to be more normal now. DLS
    • DR
      David R.
      5 October 2019 @ 21:40
      1 0
      David S, that narrative of monetary policy ineffectiveness is being used to prepare us for massive fiscal stimulus, likely "paid" for with (monetized) debt. Government has a lousy track record at making wise spending choices. But scarier I think, there'd no longer be the spending constraint on starting a big war. Better that government spending is constrained and unable to make war. But under MMT, war spending could be seen as an economic boon. Indeed, there are those who assert that war is good for the economy because, they argue, WW2 was the economic stimulus which ended the depression, OMG. (Granted, WW2 was indeed economically "good" for the US insofar as US uniquely got to make & sell tons of stuff to the European nations all left in ruins, without US hosting any WW2 hostilities except for Pearl Harbor; but if there is a WW3 we can expect that US will be hit very hard and that won't be "good").
    • DR
      David R.
      5 October 2019 @ 21:48
      1 0
      ^ Ray Dalio wrote a long, good piece this week about that Dangerous Journey of 1935-45 and the analogue to today, how we're closely & predictably repeating the steps of that era, particularly in view of the most recent threats. https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/threat-limit-capital-flows-china-pending-impeachment-conflict-dalio?articleId=6584793953038544896#comments-6584793953038544896&trk=public_profile_article_view
  • DD
    Daniel D.
    5 October 2019 @ 12:11
    0 0
    Hello Basic question regarding a term used in the interview: “buying the dollar”. What does this mean in practice? I’m guessing that just buying physical US dollars is one option but I suspect that what this really means is buying T-Bills or some other easy to trade ETF or bond. I would be most grateful if anyone could provide a reference or suggest where I could find further information on this topic. Perhaps an older video here on Real Vision? Perhaps a website or perhaps just a quick reply. Thank you very much
    • NH
      Nigel H.
      5 October 2019 @ 13:54
      3 0
      Probably UUP ETF would be a good start.
    • DD
      Daniel D.
      5 October 2019 @ 18:52
      0 0
      Dear Sir Thank you for the suggestion.
    • DR
      David R.
      5 October 2019 @ 21:07
      1 0
      He's in Asia, so taking a foreign perspective of "buying dollars". Like you would, if you're in the US, of "buying Euros". If you already earn dollars, you needn't "buy dollars" if you're already saved in dollars. But a European or Asian would need to buy dollars with their home currency if they wanted to hold dollars. Holding dollars is supposedly a safety trade (contentious statement with the US and dollar weakening this month and likely to accelerate next decade). IMHO it's safest to hold cash, hidden somewhere, rather than holding a security at a brokerage or money in the bank. In a severe situation as Jimmy eludes to, we're likely to lose the financial system. Almost happened in 2008. It might fail next time. And forget about government deposit insurance when the ATM's go dark and society shuts down. You'll want physical cash notes, silver/gold coins, cans of food and bottles of freshwater. Yikes.
  • bm
    brian m.
    5 October 2019 @ 12:59
    4 0
    Tariffs are still very low in historic terms. China is looking more like Argentina than the successor of the US.Jim is very confident about his long term views and he has been often very wrong in the medium term. Being early is very similar to being wrong.
    • DR
      David R.
      5 October 2019 @ 20:56
      0 1
      Brian, doesn't that last point depend on whether you're a trader or an investor - and if you have deep pockets for staying power?
  • XS
    Xin S.
    5 October 2019 @ 19:03
    10 1
    I would like RealVision to invite Armstrong to debate with Kyle Bass. Armstrong is predicting by 2030 China will become the financial capital of the world. US has another 200 years of dark history, which scares me.
    • AB
      Andre B.
      5 October 2019 @ 20:08
      1 0
      Yes, that would be an amazing interview!
    • DR
      David R.
      5 October 2019 @ 20:43
      1 1
      But if you've been to his conferences or heard his interviews, Martin Armstrong is not very communicative. Debating is a skill. If you don't have the skill, you will fail to impress even if you have the clear upper hand facts-wise. Recall debating club/class in school, for example. Someone good can win, "Resolved: the earth is flat".
  • FC
    Fractal C.
    4 October 2019 @ 15:13
    10 2
    I am Indian and I know a few things about India. I believe India is the singular best investment opportunity in the world today - vibrant democracy, huge english speaking middle class, young and growing demographics, open economy, stable political system, entrepreneurial spirit. It is bizarre that India does not figure much in Jim's thinking much. On a different note, RVTV should bring on Rakesh Jhunjhunwala from India - that would be one amazing interview.
    • AS
      Ameet S.
      4 October 2019 @ 17:37
      4 2
      agree. India is the fastest growing large economy. It is currently in a slowdown. But growth will resume.
    • DS
      David S.
      5 October 2019 @ 18:38
      2 0
      I agree with your comments about India. The title of this program was "Jim Rogers on China." It would be interesting to have an series on India as it is a hard market for me to understand. Raoul has been really big on India for a long time. Hopefully we will see a focus on India soon. DLS
  • RG
    Ryan G.
    4 October 2019 @ 19:02
    9 6
    Rather have Kyle bass on China
    • TN
      Tyler N. | Real Vision
      4 October 2019 @ 19:18
      13 2
      You'll get a follow up with him next week;)
    • DS
      David S.
      5 October 2019 @ 18:32
      1 0
      Mr. Bass has had the same position for many, many years. It is rational, but so far has not played out. I will be looking forward to hearing Mr. Bass next week to see if he has a new information. DLS
  • XF
    Xavier F.
    5 October 2019 @ 00:27
    6 6
    I find him a bit arrogant, especially for being wrong on a lot for so long...
    • DS
      David S.
      5 October 2019 @ 18:16
      2 0
      In a meltdown, you only need to be right once. DLS
  • EL
    Edward L.
    5 October 2019 @ 15:42
    0 3
    Jim is always highly intellectual and fascinating. I worried that the interviewer would fall asleep or out of his chair at any moment:
  • VH
    Victor H.
    4 October 2019 @ 10:06
    9 3
    You realized the UK is in deep trouble when a British man tells you Tourism is the only thing they got now....
    • CS
      Christopher S.
      5 October 2019 @ 14:55
      4 0
      Tourism, banking, financial services, robotics, biotech, Whisky, universities... We have plenty of issues, but we still have some strengths too
  • IF
    Ian F.
    4 October 2019 @ 12:27
    21 23
    I think this old suuthern boy has lost a step or his damn mind. How corrupted have you become Jim? Teaching his children mandarin... yeah he’s in knee deep with the Chinese. “Nobody has come out and claimed the Chinese have stolen their IP” ... “and if they had the US did it to Britain in textiles 200 years ago and so that’s how the world works”. I’m sorry Jim we don’t have to accept this. And furthermore the US was not a hostile nation to England that challenged the safety of the English people. The Chinese model goes well beyond IP theft (which no CEO will admit to publicly or else they would be fired, come on Jim “think around corners” like you said). Who wants to go in front of the spectacle of congress and admit that? Anyhow watch “Rotten” on (liberal rag) Netflix specifically the bees episode and the garlic episode. You have real industry explaining in plain language how the Chinese cheat trade Jimbo.
    • RW
      Richard W.
      4 October 2019 @ 14:18
      7 2
      I was wondering how to phrase my objection until I read this. I’m afraid there is an element of arrogant complacency here ......
    • EL
      Erik L.
      4 October 2019 @ 16:46
      9 0
      It almost sounds like you think that the US don’t steal, lie or even go to wars to get what they want...
    • DR
      David R.
      4 October 2019 @ 17:13
      24 1
      What's wrong with someone learning mandarin? it's by far the most widely-spoken language in the world today and also the fastest-growing. So why not? And Jim is right. IP theft isn't a one way street by any means, whether among nations or companies. As Jim said, that's how the world has worked for centuries. And in the case of China, it's mostly because they willingly signed an agreement in which they agreed to transfer some technology in exchange for market access (profitability). So blame greedy US executives most of all if you wish to place blame appropriately - and THAT is why they don't want to go before Congress. That CEO was primarily concerned with short-term profits to which his fat pay & share options were linked, and to hell with the long-term consequences after he's left and cashed-out filthy rich. Better to look at the deficiencies of our own corrupt system. One that encourages monetizing IP for short-term profit and ZIRP-borrowing to buyback corp shares, both things that boost exec compensation and the value of their stock options... We need some self-responsibility here for the consequences of our own actions. And to fix that.
    • CS
      Christopher S.
      5 October 2019 @ 14:52
      1 0
      Just go to China...the way they produce Honey and Garlic in that Netflix Episode is how they produce everything - including financial products
  • LA
    Liping A.
    4 October 2019 @ 21:34
    4 13
    This dude has been calling US$ collapse for almost 10 years now. He's become a CCP propagandist now.
    • DR
      David R.
      5 October 2019 @ 00:45
      10 0
      He also said, "I'm the world's worst market timer". Wait and see, it mightn't be too much longer. Besides, Kyle Bass and Gordon Brown have been calling for the collapse of China for 21 years, when instead it grew tenfold to become the world's largest economy per the IMF report, July 2019 (US=21.4T, MainlandChina=$27.5T, GeaterChina=29.9T)
    • DR
      David R.
      5 October 2019 @ 00:48
      0 0
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)
    • CS
      Christopher S.
      5 October 2019 @ 14:47
      2 0
      I have many issues with JR but he's been a dollar bull since 2011...I remember very well his "too many people on one side of the boat" argument for buying the dollar back then when no one wanted to
  • EK
    Edward K.
    5 October 2019 @ 14:02
    2 0
    Intellectual property theft is equated to "competition". Respect Rogers but a pretty cynical view of human conduct and capitalism. So maybe all is fair in war and that is what we effectively have albeit under other auspices.
  • PP
    P P.
    4 October 2019 @ 21:29
    5 4
    With Chinese rich wanting to diversify out of RMB by buying assets in USD, CAD,Euro and AUD and sending all their kids out of China to study the western way, it is amusing to see someone is doing the opposite. One of them is right, I don’t suspect Mr. Rogers has a clue. One belt one road is a failure of epic proportions. Just look at the current account deficit it has given countries like Pakistan. The only comment I agree is that trump is playing with fire by weaponizing USD.
    • LC
      Liliana C.
      5 October 2019 @ 04:17
      1 0
      💯 yesterday went to the most prestigious private all girls school in Los Angeles for my daughter’s “group assessment” and a kid is there with parents from Shanghai. Father says they flew in for the week to bring daughter as they applied for 7 th grade( 1st entry point). He said his daughter attended the American School in Shanghai. Privileged CCP member/friend no doubt. If China is so great, why send kid to American school in Shanghai and then apply in the US for middle, high school, and college?
    • WC
      Wilson C.
      5 October 2019 @ 06:04
      8 0
      I think you missed the point, Chinese sending kids to international school and abroad, has been happening for a long time, even in HK / Singapore. It's because we want our kids to have a global education and perspective and we can afford to do it. it has nothing to do with a country being so great or not. African dictator countries, look at how many of the elite study abroad. North Korea Kim Jong-un grew up in Europe. Money talks. Jim's perspective is the opposite. he's equipping his kids to compete (as he mention) in the 21st century of Asia. If you disagree, you don't have to teach your kids mandarin. BTW, as a counterpoint, many mainland chinese are making sure their kids get english language skills because it's a global language. That's being smart. Nothing to do with nationalism.
    • DR
      David R.
      5 October 2019 @ 10:46
      6 0
      The young chinese generations speak 2-4 languages fluently incl English. And they love US culture and Americans. Same in southeast Asia where I live, even in Vietnam which we raped. These are NOT enemies of the US or West - nor do they want to be our enemies - as the US is brainwashing Americans to become enemies of Asians. You need boots on the ground living here like Jimmy and I to understand. The indiscriminate demonization of the chinese increasingly by some American thought leaders will lead only to a very bad place, like a major war which frankly nobody will "win". Chinese want to do business, not fight war. Look at their history and love of American culture for heaven sake. You can see it in people there every day, even tho they're also patriots, which is not a contradiction to them.
  • TB
    Troy B.
    5 October 2019 @ 08:30
    5 0
    I take it he likes maps.
  • GW
    Geoff W.
    5 October 2019 @ 04:07
    4 4
    Let's steal Huawei's IP then, it's simply how the world works according to Jim (in a world without rule of law..
  • DK
    Dennis K.
    4 October 2019 @ 08:06
    27 0
    If Realvision could have an interview/discussion between Kyle Bass and Jim Rogers..... the whole western civilisation could benefit
    • VH
      Victor H.
      4 October 2019 @ 10:49
      7 0
      Totally! That could be the best Wallstreet version Rap Battle.
    • BP
      Bryce P.
      5 October 2019 @ 03:22
      5 2
      But unlike Kyle; Jim actually lives in Asia and has first hand knowledge of Asia. Therefore has a much better understanding of Asia. Where Kyle has his head in the sand in regards to China.
  • J
    JP .
    4 October 2019 @ 17:02
    18 3
    If you listen to past interviews of Jim he said nothing new! It is like a re play!
    • RM
      Robert M.
      4 October 2019 @ 19:55
      10 0
      That’s ok with me. I find his viewpoints useful and since he is a long term investor, makes sense that his investment theme doesn’t change a lot.
    • AZ
      Angelo Z.
      4 October 2019 @ 21:28
      18 0
      He's a generational value investor, not a day trader. He looks for generational lows. He's mentioned sugar (which he's likely buying here), Russia, bought more gold this summer, future of the Hong Kong dollar, etc... What do you want? Some fancy trade idea with charts that will expire next week?
    • DR
      David R.
      5 October 2019 @ 01:00
      4 0
      Yeah Angelo, the multi-billionaires like Jimmy are either enormously successful generational value investors who go all-in on their beliefs, or else they're founders of enormously successful companies that go public. Gifted, driven people.
  • TH
    Truman H.
    4 October 2019 @ 22:44
    6 0
    Matthew Milsom -- Let's hear more from him, please.
  • wm
    willem m.
    4 October 2019 @ 10:06
    22 4
    I always leave Jim with a feeling if have heard this interview before. Pity he doesn’t have more thought provoking ideas.
    • MV
      Maxime V.
      4 October 2019 @ 11:48
      3 1
      So true.
    • JA
      John A.
      4 October 2019 @ 12:49
      10 0
      He does have his “schtick”, but rarely do we get to hear his thoughts for so long, and on so many subjects. Good job by the interviewer in drawing out some lengthy answers from Mr. Rogers. I agree with him that the imbalances built up are going to end badly, but as to timing, how can anyone tell? He continually mentions history, and sadly, that’s a subject that too many in finance have no clue about. Most of this has been seen before. A quote in the Bible says, “there is nothing new under the sun”. Except negative rates...
    • JS
      John S.
      4 October 2019 @ 21:47
      3 7
      He can talk for 45 mins without actually saying anything of substance
  • wj
    wiktor j.
    4 October 2019 @ 11:16
    7 4
    Awesome interview. Although I don’t agree with his views on china, now I understand his thinking. I still think we need a regime change in China. You cant have a country that big and with so many intelligent people being ruled by a bunch of thugs.
    • DR
      David R.
      4 October 2019 @ 17:18
      8 0
      Whether they need a regime change is their choice, not ours. Currently, anonymous surveys conducted by independent outsiders show that 85% of them are satsified and support their government. So it appears the US is in much more need of a regime change. But again, that's an internal affair, nobody else's.
    • AS
      Ameet S.
      4 October 2019 @ 17:40
      2 1
      thugs is a good way to describe the people who run china. Jim Roger's usually speaks like he is the ambassador to china. I wont lose money investing in china.
    • RS
      Ryan S.
      4 October 2019 @ 19:46
      3 0
      Could say the exact same thing about the States.
  • MB
    Milton B.
    4 October 2019 @ 19:16
    25 0
    I have always liked listening to Jim and this interview was no exception.
  • GE
    Glenn E.
    4 October 2019 @ 15:33
    17 0
    I came across Jim Rodgers of Fox Busimess Saturday show in the early 2000's. He said instead of entering finance one should be a farmet. I became a farmer and have not regretted the decission. I liked the Jim Rodgers of the 2000's instead of the Jim Rodgers of this interview.
    • JS
      Jason S.
      4 October 2019 @ 15:48
      4 0
      Love it!
  • SS
    Sam S.
    4 October 2019 @ 15:09
    6 1
    It's my understanding from people directly involved in China, they were required to disclose their IP source codes and other critical manufacturing methods or they were not allowed to operate in China. This requirement was sanctioned by the previous administrations dating back to Nixon. Other RV guests including several successful Chinese businessmen have confirmed the real threat China poses. If they purchased the IP, that would be true competition. Regulatory force is socialism/communism. China has begun to cleanup their enormous horrible pollution problems which the USA exported to satisfy the EPA. Pollution kills everything and does not discriminate. Jim is right about historical climate change was everything is in cycles. Taxing the world for climate change is again regulatory power grab and people everywhere should wake up and push back. I'll pay higher prices to force the reduction of pollution but not to line the pockets of bureaucrats! Socialism is dying. Excellent interview, but I agree Jim should be more forthcoming with ways to help RV subscribers to survive the coming bear market.
  • JS
    Jason S.
    4 October 2019 @ 14:56
    3 0
    Sure seems like everyone is expecting a dollar spike.
  • MM
    M. M.
    4 October 2019 @ 13:57
    4 0
    Love his open mind. The world -read our leaders- could learn here.
  • PB
    Pieter B.
    4 October 2019 @ 13:50
    8 0
    Jim you are a true inspiration! Thank you for the conversation!
  • SW
    Scott W.
    4 October 2019 @ 13:24
    1 0
    Financial freedom. n. A condition wherein one can have multiple bestsellers in a major world economy but remain blissfully unaware as to that status, as well as the content and title of said works.
  • WC
    Wilson C.
    4 October 2019 @ 08:33
    12 0
    Jim gets the HK/China situation. HK has lost it's competitiveness and importance to China (as an overseas chinese living here since mid-90's, tough to admit but signs are all around). HK was 27% of China's GDP in 1993, recently < 3%. HK was the shipping hub, the manufacturing hub (HK'ers ran the factories in Guangdong), the financial hub, now everything is done in China or bigger and better. Case in point, everyone/everything in China uses mobile payment (Alipay / WePay), groceries are purchased online and delivered at the time you specify, ride-sharing everywhere, etc while in HK Uber is still banned. IMHO, Jim is correct in his assessment that China doesn't need HK, having said that, China has been including HK in its plans including the Greater Bay area project, opening the stock connect links between HK and China stock exchanges for A-share trading, etc. Unfortunately the average HK'er would not benefit from these initiatives, listen to the interview with Joseph Cheng to understand why.
    • tc
      thomas c.
      4 October 2019 @ 11:14
      3 0
      Nice to here that from someone who knows the place. Thank you. I have been reading the same. Do you think it still has outsized importance to China due to it's place in financial markets? If that were lost a big dollar channel would be gone also.
    • WC
      Wilson C.
      4 October 2019 @ 12:30
      4 0
      Hi TC, Yes, it's still important to China as a financial center and as important (Louis Gavekal mention this recently) as a respected legal framework. But I think the nuance is, is it critical? Over time, less and less so.
  • JW
    Joseph W.
    4 October 2019 @ 08:58
    1 0
    Gym Rogers bday is coming up! Same day as 1987 crash.
  • GH
    Galen H.
    4 October 2019 @ 08:43
    5 1
    He makes me laugh. If only it was as easy as he makes it sound. ... "Nothing is jumping off the page... got to buy this disaster"... maybe have a look at South Africa. LOTS of "cheap" companies. PEs on 2s and 3s. Quite a few NA#s though. Bought a Zimbabwe stock.... WOW!
  • JS
    Jason S.
    4 October 2019 @ 07:56
    9 1
    Good old Jimmy Rogers - new interview, same stories. Still love the guy though!