Think of cryptocurrencies as a form of decentralised Amazon Web Service. It's another form of commodity.

see South Korea. The people are speaking up

To add to my response, as someone who worked with a lot of start-ups, John reminds me of the enterpreneur who is looking for his next big idea after having one work out in the past. And like a lot of entrepreneurs, it is difficult to find that next big hit. It is why I viewed this interview as someone struggling to indentify an investing idea and buying into a trend that they don't seem to understand and cannot express their thesis outside of it being the next big platform. Interesting that John Paulson faced similar issues with his investment fund after scoring big in shorting subprime loans in 2008. This WSJ article was enlightening to John's failing track record since his one big hit in the real estate crash of 2008: https://www.wsj.com/articles/john-burbanks-struggling-passport-hedge-fund-hopes-for-new-savior-in-bitcoin-1513088044

Yeah having stacks of $700 GPUs mining nonsense and using tons of electric will be looked back on as idiotic. Not to mention crypto will be useless once their are better quantum computers. It's nothing more than loose monetary policy for far too long. They should interview Druckenmiller on this show.

Please just read what is a cryptocurrency and what is consensus algorithm and why we must use one before you write a comment about crypto.It is obvious that you haven't done your homework.Maybe proof of work it is not the most efficient consensus algorithm,but it can be improved.Also about quantum computers, you know that a software can be modified,right? This means that cryptocurrencies can modify their algorithm in order to be quantum resistance or even use a quantum computer.This means that quantum computers are not the end of the world or end of cryptocurrencies.

Agree completely but I also realize that we now pay relatively little for this service so my expectations have dropped very sharply. I don't remember John saying he was investing in SF real estate in previous interviews....that was a very wise speculation maybe even better than crypto.

And those who say that maybe crypto but for sure blockchain: it is was like saying in 2000s let's invest in the HTTP protocol. In other words - complete bullshit.

True, which is why 99% of crypto will be worthless eventually. However network effects will concentrate value in just a few, possibly including Bitcoin. The marginal cost of creating a new bitcoin is not zero, it is the cost of mining. The cost of creating a new USD is also zero but it has a value due to network effects and a 'promise' from the US Gov.

The value is derived from what people are willing to pay for it. That's the beauty of a decentralized thing is that the market is the pricing mechanism and buyers and sellers are pushing and pulling in search of price discovery.

Indeed. It is like investing in a Potemkin village.

Raoul did it last year.

There are a couple great Michael Green interviews here on RV, some of the best content available.

Yes, they’re few and far between.

A ramble to nowhere, unfortunately. More content, less value on RV.

As more coins are created, the number of coins given as a (mining) reward for validating a block is lowered (reward is halved each time it's reduced - which has been occurring ~ once every year or so). A lower # of coins rewarded will lower the mining incentive - ASSUMING no significant change in VALUE-per-coin. So less mining activity will occur, and the 'Difficulty Rate' (which adjusts many times each day) will also lower (so less electricity will be needed for mining). That could result in lower transaction costs, because miners then won't need as great a reward to make a profit (IF the difficulty rate declines enough to significantly reduce mining costs...!). But IF there's also a significant increase in the (spot mkt) coin VALUE, the reduced mining reward will be at least somewhat offset by the value increase, in which case less, or perhaps even no relief for transaction costs. BTW, David: your always-thoughtful comments (like those of many, but not quite all, other RV members) are a nice addition to the RV community. Thanks.

will w. - Thanks for the information on Bitcoin mining and administration costs. I owned a few Bitcoins, but the State of Hawaii forced Coinbase to close all accounts with Hawaiian residences. I doubled my money, so it was a good experiment. Also thank you for your BTW. I appreciate the RealVision product and community. It helps me to put the video in perspective to write a response and/or a question. I do get carried away sometimes, which is normal for me. Thanks again. DLS

If you want to advertise effectively Its hard to beat FB and Google even after accounting for click fraud and such. I work in marketing analytics and the fact is CMOs have a massive pile of money to spend and a few logical and acceptable ways to spend it. These platforms are the go-to answer for many marketers not just because of the audience and the ability to target directly but because it makes sense in their view and vs other options it stand out.

So yikes, that was bad, bad, bad, bad and bad.

Cryptos going to zero, except for the coming government ones. Rest will be banned by gov't, blaming tax evasion, terrorism financing, money laundering, whatever. It's how gov't works. No way gov't goes quietly into the night.

David R. - I agree that major governments will do their best to eliminate digital currencies competition. Only the biggest will have the resources to win the battle. There will always be many parts of the world where Crypto-currencies will be useful. The existential factor then will be the cost of mining and administration of Crypto-currencies. DLS

Perhaps I didn't hear him correctly (admit I was cleaning kitchen) but I thought I heard him say it's hard if not almost impossible for individual investor to get properly positioned. Yes, maybe Ethereum but not a lot of possibilities. But again, I might have this wrong.

Low vol is one of the strongest factors for stock returns per Haugen.

Don’t know who Haugen is. In Alchemy if Finance, Soros has chronicled his trades and returns and if you analyze those, you will realize the volatility in his portfolio. And it also makes sense as you are betting big on high conviction ideas and are willing to be proven wrong. These guys used to do exactly the opposite thing if diversification. Low volatility happens when your size is small and you are infinitely diversified. In fact, John himself is alluding to this point without linking this point directly to low returns of his.