These types of debates are simply epic. Well done. Extremely useful to see how they think.

for a lack of a better word that was very good

There are a few issues Lyn Alden fails to address 1. The Net Investment Position (dollar assets) of non-US entities are marked to market whereas the liability (dollar debts) are not. In a global flight to safety, the assets will get marked down drastically (equities, HY credit etc). Also the composition of these dollar assets are important, not all of them would be in liquid/cash like instruments (tbills), a whole of them would be in relatively illiquid long tenor risky assets (PE, HY Credit, CLOs etc), i.e. liquidating these assets in a global contagion would be highly problematic for the non-US entities to pay off their dollar debt liabilities. 2. The swap lines are bilateral (these are loans in a way), as Brent points out, if the Fed establishes a 1T swap line with ECB, the ECB has to print an equivalent amount of euros. And those dollars have to be paid back at maturity of the swap line (unless rolled over), keeping the pressure on the other central banks on maturity dates. 3. On a liquidity adjusted basis, as Raoul points, 1T of EUR printing, theoretically, has more impact on weakening their currency versus 1T of USD printing. So a net relative basis, USD comes out stronger vis-a-vis the other currencies. 4. Lyn, and other dollar bears like Luke Gromen, completely miss the point of the "choke point" in the offshore dollar system. Those are the network of dealer banks running from one side of this planet to another who are the real pressure points for the offshore dollar flow. Once the dealer banks gets risk averse due to contagion, no amount of central bank swap lines is going to force these dealer banks (unless at gun point) to lend to the weak corporate borrowers, yes may be the swap line dollars find their way to the AAA/AA/A corporate, but what about the huge amount of weak borrowers in the system (BBB and below)? Nobody is going to lend them, those swap line dollars will only sit in the balance sheets of the dealer banks. This choke point theory is also based on the work of Jeff Snider, do follow his excellent "financial plumbing" knowledge and the depths of the abyss. It's the dealer banks, not the central bank, which regulates the dollar shortage so as to say. 5. In addition, there is a boat load of derivatives (many factor multiple of the actual 12T dollar debt) between institutions in the offshore dollar market. Any contagion and it risks a massive rebalancing and margin calls on these esoteric financial products between the dealer banks/hedge funds/insurance players themselves, thereby aggravating the funding stress (like GFC 2008, March 2020 but on a larger scale and coming and going in burst mode) 6. There is a minefield of geopolitical risks the discussion did not go into in details, which only alleviates the demand for dollars, gold etc. And what if trade does not have the recovery as being priced, or commodities start falling again - crude oil specifically? There can be no discussion on dollar without commodities interplay. Just my 2 cents. :)

Great interview Brent. I hope Lyn is a frequent guest on Real Vision.

I want to see Lyn and Jeff Snider discuss this so bad.

Old REALVISION

one of the best guest ever on real vision. Really enjoyed this.

Bullish on Bitcoin (BTC) makes total sense. I agree with Lyn's view regarding the best bets thinking in 2+ years.

Ultimately it boils down to - whether you believe in the power of the Fed to keep the bond market in control, most would say - don't fight the Fed. Some would say why not?

Lyn is brilliant and explains things so clearly - please bring her back! I could listen to her for hours.

Great Dialogue between Brent and Lyn Alden. I just subscribed to her newsletter. She will be a great addition to Real Vision going forward. Another quality interview by Real Vision, thanks again.

people commenting "lyns so humble and so cool' lol perhaps that's because if you are a super smart women you have to deal with dumb, egotistical men all your life??? (and Trump bros don't bother replying if I triggered you, Im European my ass is on holidays til September unlike you 365/52/12/infinity corporate slaves)

Just great!

Now this is RV!

XRP will take over the role of the dollars as a world reserve currency

This interview is a good example of why Real Vision is a valuable tool. Keep these two; Brent and Lyn, around for future shows.

Fantastic interview! A true example of a dialog that presents an issue in all its complexity. Great job!

Wow. No matter the question, Lyn had layer upon layer of supportive reasoning. Top down and bottom up covered! So good. Hats off to Brent for lining up the overall staging of the discussion/ questioning and asking the really probing questions. This is RV at it's best.

Brent on your comments on onshore and offshore USD they are completely fungible (i.e. they are completely interchangable). The notion that they are two seperate systems is easily dismissed by the fact that you cannot ring an investment bank or market maker and get a different swap or fx fwds price for onshore or offshore dollars. (Eg. for RMB when you get a price you have to ask for the onshore (CNY) or offshore (CNH) price). This does not exist for USD. You can also see this by the fact that the Fed and the market uses FRA-OIS or 3mL-OIS as a stress indicator for dollar liquidity. Libor is set in London hence is part of the Eurodollar market while OIS is set off Fed Funds which is a NY transaction based index. Why would the most common measure of stress straddle both markets if they were not fungible? There are no capital controls preventing the movement of dollars between onshore and offshore. There may be a desire for tax purposes or to operate under a certain jurisdictions legal system or regulatory regime as to why you would want to transact in a certain country but any bank with a global branch structure (i.e. most of them) can freely move dollars between jurisdictions and even the jurisdictions that have a subsidiary can easily move the cash to the branch with the right collateral or lending agreements between branch and sub (eg. overnight repo or overnight lending limits) to park at the Fed. Historically there was more of a separation when the offshore market started in the 50s-70s but in practice today it doesn't exist. The USD swap lines between central banks become useful for banks that either do not have access to the Fed if they do not have a US branch with access to the discount window or if they hold more home country central bank repo-eligible collateral (generally now required under LCR and NSFR rules) than US Fed repo-eligible collateral their home central bank will effectively perform collateral transformation with collateral they are happy with to collateral the Fed is happy with. The Fed has control over USD globally so the notion they do not control it is misguided. Please speak to a practitioner in global money markets who runs multi country and currency bank balance sheets about this.

So I watched the interview and I am a fan of Brent's but this is absolutely ridiculous. Update on Milkshake Theory - It might take a few years to play out. What kind of prediction is that? That's like me saying The S&P is going to hit 5000 one day, it might take a few years to play out and of course one day I will be right, but that doesn't make a genius does it? I am absolutely shocked. Imagine how many people have followed this Dollar Bull theory with futures and options trades (I am one of them) and have got slaughtered and then someone pops on and says it may take years to work?

Everyone Including Lyn says that in a Dollar bearish environment they are bullish Gold and Bitcoin. The Bitcoin story is very clear; hard asset, only 21 million coins, etc. etc. BUT if you Look at the trading pattern, Gold and BTC move differently. If you draw an XY plot and put SPX on the X axis and BTC or Gold on the Y axis you can clearly see that Gold moves independently of the equity market. BTC on the other hand moves up and down with the SPX. Please don’t tell me correlation between BTC and SPX is low. I know that. Correlation is about change in prices. I am talking about CO-INTEGRATION. BTC and SPX seem to live together. BTC behaves like a FANG!!! BTC has the same hard money story as Gold but it trades like a FANG stock. Full disclosure: I personally am all into precious metal miners right now. I liquidated my BTC position because I think the equity market is soon going to take a hit. Second wave of COVID is bad! I think BTC will go down with SPX. Every one talks about BTC and Precious Metals as though they were one basket. I don’t hear any one commenting that they move differently. I would love to get some thought feedback on this from the RV community. Again, please, please have Lyn back. She is brilliant!

great exchange of ideas! Lyn is super bright, articulate and well informed and a great counterpoint to Brent.

Superb discussion, been following both Lyn and Brent closely on Twitter, both have well thought out theories on this CRITICAL question of the USD, this interview allowed both to articulate and debate their views while. Lyn is just so smart and her responses so measured, intelligent and well considered, she has really done the work, have huge respect for her. Brent is solid as always and both are very generous to debate openly on Twitter allowing others to learn. This format of an expert interviewing another expert is RealVision at its best and gets to a deep examination of the question at hand vs a surface overview in the hands of a non subject matter expert.

Very interesting debate. Lyn is amazing.

Many thanks to both Brent and Lyn. Different styles but both were open to opposing ideas which is refreshing. Not easy to put yourself out there and not succumb to egos to only prove your point of view.

amazingly intersting and thought provoking conversation! Lyn is very smart and detailed thinker when it comes to reality of the political response. It is much more like a game theory perspective rather than purely two dimentional financial or currency war. Brent Johnson as always cool and humble. I liked his style! truly honest and humble to learn other perspective in conversation. Thank you guys! learned a lot!

Really enjoyed that conversation. Interesting to note, that both don't see a way that a crisis can be averted in the long run. No matter what scenario is looked at through a logical thought experiment, in the end the outcome is a negative one. It really will require a reset of the financial system in some form, which will cause a severe worldwide problem, but which will improve things from then on. Hope the can isn't kicked down the road for too much longer

Lyn was really sharp

very cool, learned a lot

Lyn is so cool. Brent comes off as the master mansplainer.

This was a great conversation. It seems they are both on the same knife's edge, but have different ideas about how things will shake out once the stress in the system reasserts itself. Maybe they were being polite (probably not), but it seemed—despite the noise about this being a heavyweight debate—they agree on so much (bottom line: gold!). Also, I'd love to hear more from Lyn on bitcoin and crypto in general. She mentioned it as a (potential?) part of her current strategy without any elaboration. That's a separate discussion, of course, but it would be a refreshing counterpoint to the occasionally dogmatic and unhelpful cryptobro messaging (selling? cheerleading?) that saturates the crypto space.

Brent and Lyn, Excellent conversations and perhaps one of the best. Extremely thought provoking. I believe the difference between the thesis are the different potential policy responses to the worldwide debt issues as they unfold and how long can it go on until we have some type of debt reset. Looking at the thumbs up on this video, you gave a gift to everyone! Thanks to both of you for a great debate and making us all think!

people commenting "lyns so humble and so cool' lol perhaps that's because if you are a super smart women you have to deal with dumb, egotistical men all your life??? (and Trump bros don't bother replying if I triggered you, Im European my ass is on holidays til September unlike you 365/52/12/infinity corporate slaves)

Phenomenal conversation with two very smart people. I can't think of an interview where I learned more detailed information. One thing I am always surprised by when hearing talk of a replacement for the eurodollar system, especially when considering a basket of currencies as a replacement, is how anyone would take Yuan as payment when they can print unlimited amount be keep their peg to the dollar. I don't think China will give up their peg under any circumstances

excellent

Good discussion. Lyn says, "I think over the next several years as a base case that the Fed's probably going to be more aggressive in terms of balance sheet expansion in some of these other major countries. " This is the key point that I struggled to understand. Why would Fed need to be more aggressive than other CBs? It certainly can't be that US economy is relatively weaker than Europe or Japan or China or EMs. Then why? I think the answer is provided a bit later: Brent: "If we have to print more to bail out the rest of the world, but they also have to print in order to get the dollars, how do we out print them?" Lyn: "Because we'd be printing to support that, while also in my view, probably printing more than them to support our own economy. " So, there is the answer, I think. Fed has to print more than other CBs, because it has to serve $ to RoW, AND serve $ to US domestic entities. If this is indeed the case, then it is entirely unfair to compare Fed sheet expansion with RoW CBs expansion in absolute terms or even in relation to a countries' GDP. If, USD is the world currency, not US currency, then its strengths/weaknesses should NOT be reasoned solely based on US economy's strength and weakness. So, one way to think of dollar bear and bull case is as follows: - Dollar bears seem to be reasoning about USD as US currency. - Dollar bulls seem to be reasoning about USD as world currency. It is also hard for me to imagine that US would willingly abdicate USD's reserve status by making swap lines permanent. Why would it do so? Has there ever been an instance in history when any country did that without a significant economic hardship or war?

Both are great and really appeciated they discussed and debated - just puts current media headlining culture to point. Perhaps not surprising that their differences boil down to fine margins but FX is the thing. No central bank is big enough to manipulate that.

45% of global trade is invoiced in US dollars. Swap lines extend dollar debt. We only print dollars domestically. The spread to watch: Foreign Dollar Market - Domestic Dollar Market

Great conversion. Very thought provoking. Lyn is a very knowledgeable and impressive integrative macro thinker. Please have her back,

Brent is a very nice guy. This is my first thought post watching this interview.

Interesting discussion but it relies on two main assumptions: The Fed is printing money and also monetizing government debt. What if that isn't true? I know, you're saying of course it's true - are you blind? That's what makes thinking about this interesting. There're two recent videos with Lacy Hunt on RV. He says the Fed is not monetizing, so why does he think that? And what if he's right?

This is such a great video.

My take so far being just 40% of way through the segment is that this would have been stronger in a format that consisted of a panel of two speakers and a moderator directing the lines of discussion. Notwithstanding, still a strong segment as per RV usual and customary.

Damn this was such a good conversation, more of these please RV. 2 people looking at the same data and coming to competing conclusions both backed by data, definitely need more of these around here on all the core macro themes

Excellent discussion. Lyn is impressively smart and insightful. I particularly enjoyed the fact that Brent and Lyn presented somewhat opposing views which is highly educational for the viewer. Thank you both.

Fantastic to see the subject thrashed out by two studied experts. Thank you both so much. The best debate I’ve seen on the subject.

Would love to see Lyn chatting with Raoul in the next edition. Lyn is great!

I would have a question for Lyn Alden: if her thesis is right and the Central bank just continues to supply swaps and this proves sufficient, is there a possibility that the dollar fall excessively or that inflation raises like to 6 or 7%? I have a hard time believing that there is no cost for this

Watching two extremely intelligent people discuss the moves of the dollar makes me realize I have no idea where the dollar is headed. Both make fantastic points, and then you throw Raul's strong dollar idea in there. We have some interesting times coming.

Triffin dilemma (blast from the past).

I see a bunch of Robinhood traders in the comments lol

Brent forces logical questions at Lyn to where her textbook explanations fall short.

I would love to see Lyn do some daily briefings with Ed........

We need more debates like this with people on opposing sides hashing out their varying views.

I don't think that most Americans have any idea of what giving up having the reserve currency means. It certainly means that all Americans will have to lower their standard of living. The us can print money and buy real goods, nobody can do that. Just one example. When my relatives from the States come to Europe and see that gas costs 3 times as much as in the States, they can't understand how it can be and how we get by. It can be because we must purchase oil in foreign currency which we must obtain, we cannot print, and then, to be able to support the high cost, we drive small fuel efficient cars. Maybe the Millenial would be happy to live like that but not the older generations, I'd be happy to be proven wrong on this.

Enjoyed? That was the best hockey game since the 80s!!

This girl is good...great conversation facilitated by Brent.

I read Lyn every month. A great thinker.

Doesn't this usually end in war? Anyway fantastic conversation, thank you Lyn, Brent, & RV!

This was the most charming way I ever saw a milkshake getting spilled out...smile... Chapeau!

Excellent Interview! Bravo! HOWEVER, the ONE discussion I'd like to watch is Brent Jonhson and Julian Brigden. Because Brigden's case is VERY STRONG for a downturn in the DXY, specially looking at the shale oil production IMPLOSION and, thus, an increase in the current account deficit in the NEAR future for the US. Thanks anyhow

Very impressive...I have followed Lyn via Twitter...but to listen to her intellectual insights is fantastic...very counter punching in a nice way to Brent....Good interview Brent!

Lyn is SMART. she gives off those taylor mason vibes

Lyn Adlen is just simply brilliant. She is calm. She listens. And she gives very intellectual answers. Please have her back.

Peter Zeihan's recent book is a good complement to this segment. It's a good complement because it looks at a longer term view whereas the discussion here is near to middle term. In particular, the discussion in Zeihan's book about a prospective future for the US is quite interesting.

Per Brent's point, if the US wants to use the dollar as a weapon, why doesn't it buy more and more gold (or bitcoin) with its newly-and unlimited printed dollars . . . if it hasn't already? Wouldn't a strong gold-based dollar (or bitcoin-based dollar) help US companies buy and/or replace supply chains?

Great conversation!

Lyn is incredibly articulate and smart....very impressive.

Brent tried to put Lyn on the spot at the beginning. Anyway, if the US don't care about the consequences, we would not be doing the swap lines now. Agreeing with Lyn. The U.S. don't want to, but will be forced to let other currencies in. It is already happening in the world. There will be a bipolar system first. You know what they are.

Great interview. Not sure why a term like dollar milkshake has been coined for what could come, seems to complicate an issue which is quote obvious. If there is a secondary bust coming soon again there will be high demand for USD during the dash for cash. Is that not what normally happens anyhow? There is obviously going to be further black swans and further crisis at some stage whether it is this year or in years to come and the demand for dollars will resurface.

No idea if you'll see this, Brent, but I am curious about the point you made about the foreign currency printing to collateralize dollar swaps. I think you're correct, but does that have to be inflationary in foreign currencies? On paper, the stock of, say, AUD will increase by 86B AUD. And that will be roughly equal in value to the 60B USD that we would extend them. So we would certainly print the $60B and they would certainly print the commensurate 86B in their own currency. But only one of these, if I understand correctly, would really circulate. Is that correct? The AUD would sit in a vault (virtually) as collateral while the $60B of printed relief dollars gets shot around knocking out debt payment after debt payment. Therefore, it actually satisfies dollar demands and achieves velocity. I mean it's like the same way we could, today, have a monetary stock of $100T. But maybe $95T of that is in a pile in a cave in Kentucky and no one is doing anything with it, right? Monetary velocity is not a uniform variable - it's fluctual.

If RV would only put the dislike button a bit further from the like button......................those dislikes are surely there by accident.

Milkshake has been in the Sun too long...Lyn is going to be a clear winner here

What happen if China, Russia, India , Iran , ++++ decide to not to use USA dollars ? and Turkey , Mexico, Chile +++++++ start defaulting on Euro Dollars ? Brent is delusional....let's start a new war .,,When ?

This interview is possibly the best example of why Real Vision is worth the investment.

Please do a part 2 on this in a few months....id love to see where your guys views change and develop. Thanks. Was excellent

Ms. Alden is sharp as a tack. Her command of monetary and financial history and the issues is impressive, and she manages to discuss it in such a way that's understandable to the lay person.

Absolutely fantastic stuff, especially from Lyn I felt. Very clear, cogent and calm explanations - please have her on again.

She’s good ladies and gents. She’s really good.

Lyn has been eloquent + impressively structured and showed herself to be an exceptional thinker. I would love to see more interviews with her and am very pleased with this discussion.

'Wasn't it Yogi Berra that said, " It's hard to make predictions especially about the future."?

Very nice job Lyn, look forward to the next RV appearance.

So many questions I've had covered here. Thank you guys. Made my Monday...

Fantastic. Thank you both for the great dialogue. My heads spinning and I’ll need to watch it again.

very good - great insights from both people.

Fantastic conversation. I feel like the line of questioning was a bit aggressive and put Lyn on the spot. That said, she was extremely articulate and did a great job presenting and defending her view. Great job both of you.

Fantastic interview and I really enjoyed Lyn Alden’s perspective. This US $ direction has been very difficult to handicap, what with Raoul and Brent being so persuasive and Julian and Luke Gorman arguing equally persuasively in the other direction. It seems that the direction of the US $ is the Macro key to almost everything on the investment menu, yet taking a position on it one way or the other just seems so binary. Perhaps the clever can move from one side of the boat to the other timing wise, but perhaps for those of us who haven’t the conviction one way or the other it may be best to just split the portfolio down the middle for performance under either an up or down $ scenario (Precious Metals, Cash and a bit of BTC are “easy” though).

Great discussion! Big fan of both your work.

Dollar is in such high demand at times of liquidation, so it is delveraging that triggers USD strength. The usd leg of the swap lines is not used to expand credit but to settle the deleveraging mechanism with dollars made readily available. The alternative would be a scramble on USD, which as it becomes super scarce and its available quantity contracts by debt extictino will see rates spike. That creates issues back in the USA (as Bernanke explaned to Grayson in July 2009 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n0NYBTkE1yQ&feature=youtu.be ). The non usd leg of the swap lines can just be sleeping collat at the Fed, who cares?

The dollar milkshake is self extinguishing because of the awful net international investment position. Digital central bank currencies will replace SWIFT. Its 2020. SWIFT is long in the tooth. Lots of other viable options out there when it comes to digital currencies. It will be a multipolar world. Atomic swaps will allow for easy and quick transitions between currencies so you can trade in whichever currency you like.

I can't believe there are 12 dislikes when they had such a great and informed discussion, some people are never happy. Thank you very much for the content Real Vision :-)

I can't believe there are 12 dislikes when they had such a great and informed discussion, some people are never happy. Thank you very much for the content Real Vision :-)

I can't believe there are 12 dislikes when they had such a great and informed discussion, some people are never happy. Thank you very much for the content Real Vision :-)

Excellent video! I loved Lyn’s backing up her points with facts and charts. It would be great if this “fact-based / backed-up with data” becomes a regular feature in RV as much as possible. I think it is much more helpful than just assertive, self-confident statements of opinions.

Excellent conversation. Indeed a very complex subject with huge global implications.

Excellent coversation

Lyn won this one.

I've been following for years- and this, as anticipated, was an intense discussion of pertinent and important ideas and "REAL VISIONS". Lyn is consistently amazing in her analysis, equanimity, poise, DATA, historical understanding and HUMILITY. She clearly operates at a higher level, yet uses clear concise language (without technical jargon to alienate non-finance linguists). Most guests can be listened at 1.5x, but not Lyn- she's says so much so clearly, it's like she has memorized her responses!! Raoul Pal - any way to get Lyn to do a few of her own interviews? ? Brent has a great idea- that does seem inevitable-but my concern is that I'll go broke for the next 5-8 years waiting for the whole country (and USD system) to go broke in the end, where I'll likely have a terrible or much less wonderful country (probably war?) to live in. Hmmm, maybe that multipolar 'new' system will be a digital decentralized one?? Just a thought. God Bless, Thanks for the great interview, BT

Regardless of the direction of the $, this conversation reminded me that every $ spent on Real Vision has a positive educational return. Their Twitter back and forth should be PDF’d and appended to the transcript.

Instead of getting videos with quality I check my email and find RV shelling out crypto Gathering emails ... do better ...

Brilliant, great argument with good points on both sides. But I literally kept thinking the best trade out of this choppy market is crypto.

Excellent interview, made even better by the fact that contrasting views were tackled in a single video in a well-structured manner. Thanks Lyn and Brent.

Lyn brought up a very interesting point about how this entire dollar shortage situation can be resolved - USA pumping up its FX reserves with other trading currencies. The US can print and then permanently buy Euro, Yuan, CHF, GBP, AUD, JPY, SGD, HKD on a mass scale supporting all these currencies and preventing their collapse in the face of strengthening USD. I think this if not done proactively by the USA after realizing swap lines only exacerbating the USD debt and shortage issue will be done as part of a multi-lateral agreement a la "Bretton Woods 2".

Sounds like they would benefit from going to go to THE CRYPTO GATHERING to learn about Bitcoin.

Awesome interview! one of my favorites. Thank you both, Lyn and Brent!

Probably the best debate since I'm subscribed, with good arguments from both sides.

Great talk. Thank you! This format of 2 people with knowledge and different points of view discussing and challenging each other is the beezkneez. Please make it a thing, i love it

heavy weight vs light weight, no brain teacher vs genius student

This may be single most important discussion I’ve ever heard on Real Vision. Lyn, Brent, bravo!

This was one of the best counter-thesis discussions I ve seen. Great back and forth. Usually when people are asked to defend their positions, especially in public, there is a lot of repetitive yadayada. This was crisp and smooth - neither got irritated and you could tell that they spend a lot of time thinking through the counter points. I would love to see more red-team interviews like this - especially when executed this well. Also glad that Lyn translates so well into podcasting/vids (well spoken, concise, good voice). Her twitter feed has always been great.

The singularity of all the different crisis hitting at once means we are in the Fourth Turning!

she is brilliant

Great interview. We now need a follow up to this in a few months with Raoul added to the mix

I like how Lyn really sticks to the fundamentals of economics and uses a base case scenario based on the numbers and charts. She is extremely level headed and confident in a quiet humble kind of way. At the end of the day we all gotta make up our own minds how we invest going forward.. they both agree gold will win. Brent's theory sees the USA making a kind of "final blow-off top" in Empire as they use up their reserve currency strength for all its worth in order to extend Empire. Ironically, this would be the very thing that would end their long run as the rest of world would eventually group together in blocks to resist the self centered shenanigans. We see China developing long range plans for international trade with the Belt & Roan initiative. This kind of economic activity will produce very good fruit in the long term as it is based on sound economic theory.

Lots to digest...may need to listen once again! Thanks RV!

Best interview Brent has done. Lyn was such professional. Great overall conversation.

Aren't we deluding ourselves to believe that we can understand the direction of something so massive and complicated as the USD? So much air is spent by so many smart people, on both sides of the bull/bear argument. If USD goes up, all the bulls will say they were right and their logic/analysis is superior. If it goes down, the bears will say the same. I think it's most likely that both sides are being 'fooled by randomness' into believing that they have a better than 50% chance of predicting the outcome. Because big inflection points are so rare, it is impossible to aggregate enough data to prove that any of the these prognosticators have a statistically significant edge.

Great, intelligent talking! Thank you both for sharing your brain! Noone outside the US believes that the FED (she?, it?)) is granting swaplines to the advantage of others. She must do that because there's is no other way to keep the system and it's own country functioning. Maybe I'm wrong but I have the strong feeling that the US did not come down to meet reality yet and are widely overestimating the strength of their position.

Why would not a foreign sovereign want their yields rising? Too expensive to pay interest on debt right?

Everything was to the point and clearly stated - great discussion, thanks!

In order to achieve a more multi-polar world which will in the longer-term benefit US, why can't US call a debt Jubilee for the "friendly" countries at the same time as weaponizing it against the antagonistic ones?

Thank you both, and can’t profess to understand it all, but it reminds me... timeframe is everything.. Brent and Lyn : Raoul and Julian. In the long run, the dollar will be destroyed, but I do agree it’s going to need a lot of pain to get there...

Amazing conversation, thank you guys

What an awesome stimulating conversation!

Brent "for a lack of a better word" Johnson ;) Great discussion!

Fantastic interview

Masterpiece, thank you both Brent and Lyn

The first intelligent Dollar debate I have seen, with data. Well done.

None can destroy iron but its own rust can likewise only dollar(by become very expensive) can destroy its importance in the his own dollar system.

Very sharp.

great interview...interesting thank you RV

Many thanks to both Lyn and Brent. It's can be easy to put your bull or bear thesis across when it's a one way interview but much harder when confronted with an opposing theory. Especially loved Lyn's final comment - "people get into trouble when they start tying their ego to their investment position". So true. Hopefully this bull vs bear format is something we can see more of on RV. Keep up the great work.

Great interview... Really enjoyed it

top of the top -Lyn Alden is sharp - insightful interview.

Great job to both of you for matching your headphones to your outfits

I have been listening to real vision for a year and this discussion was one of the best.