Marc Cohodes: “The Stock Market is Not A Game”

Published on
February 3rd, 2021
Duration
63 minutes

The Macro “Endgame”: Growth, Gold, Deflation, and the Dollar


Marc Cohodes: “The Stock Market is Not A Game”

The Interview ·
Featuring Marc Cohodes and Jason Buck

Published on: February 3rd, 2021 • Duration: 63 minutes

In this interview with Jason Buck of The Mutiny Fund, famed short-seller Marc Cohodes of Alder Lane Farm pulls no punches as he diagnoses the true culprits behind the exponential volatility in stocks such as GameStop: extreme leverage and the hedge funds who use it in order to juice returns. Cohodes argues that hedge funds like Point72 and Melvin Capital are creating significant systemic risk for all market participants, most notably themselves, and he congratulates the retail trades on r/WallStreetBets but warns them that, generally, buying a stock merely because it has high short interest is a very bad idea. He closes by sharing with Buck his personal journey during the 2008 Great Financial Crisis. Filmed on February 1, 2021.

Key learnings:
The stock market is not a game – it is a serious thing for serious people. The reckless use of leverage ought to be constrained by regulators, and all investors, institutional as well as retail, should be prepared to lose if they are wrong.

Comments

Transcript

  • KK
    Kennen K.
    17 February 2021 @ 05:33
    Marc Cohones....should be Marc Cojones
  • JA
    John A.
    16 February 2021 @ 00:17
    Absolutely fabulous interview. Thank You!
  • rs
    richard s.
    13 February 2021 @ 02:25
    If leverage is a sin, every single household that has 30yr bank loan must put into the same category of Citadel SAC...
  • DF
    Dwight F.
    11 February 2021 @ 08:35
    We need more shorters like Marc.
  • AP
    Antonio P.
    10 February 2021 @ 19:54
    This guy is amazing...
  • IN
    I N.
    10 February 2021 @ 17:59
    Easily one of the most inspiring pieces found on RV. I am with you all the way. Thanks Marc, thanks Jason.
  • TG
    Thomas G.
    10 February 2021 @ 13:52
    amazing interview. this guy is such a badass
  • LW
    Landon W.
    10 February 2021 @ 13:39
    I don't understand the criticism of the SAC/Millennium/Citadel models and the Tiger offshoots. What fund of this type has ever been bailed out with taxpayer money? Melvin was "bailed out" by Citadel and Point 72 not because they faced systemic risk, but because they saw an opportunity to make an investment at favorable terms (and protect a prior investment in Point 72s case). I agree that any of these firms should be allowed to fail if investors aren't willing to put in more capital if they get into trouble and that seems to be the case. I worked at Millennium for 10 years. The model allows significant leverage since it is hedging out most risk factors. It is nothing like LTCM leveraging 30x to make the same bet in 100 different ways. Down 3% in 2008 and down 3 bps in March of 2020 shows its effectiveness. The systematic risk of the Tiger model unwind after GME allowed me to enter some great companies at attractive prices. I was hoping the gross reductions was going to provide more opportunities.
  • JR
    Jack R.
    9 February 2021 @ 22:04
    This guy is better than any MBA class I ever took. And Yes. CNBC is the Cartoon Network of Investing.
  • RI
    R I.
    8 February 2021 @ 23:43
    People will pay $3 to see two rats fuck.
  • MM
    Mamakgooa M.
    8 February 2021 @ 14:42
    I just thought it was quite amusing listening to Marc Cohodes say infinite squeeze. I chuckled uncontrollably at my work at home desk Thank you for this great interview Real Vision 👍
  • AC
    Alex C.
    8 February 2021 @ 10:15
    Thanks both, great insight and interview.
  • DM
    Douglas M.
    8 February 2021 @ 02:02
    This guy is legendary. A man's man.
  • jc
    james c.
    7 February 2021 @ 13:07
    I genuinely have the utmost regard for Marc's courage, intelligence, determination and competence. But there is something that troubles me: when he successfully goes after a company engaged in nefarious activities that he has shorted, does he not profit at the expense often of naive, innocent shareholders who purchased the borrowed stock that subsequently falls ? I suppose the rebuttal is caveat emptor. But when Marc shorts the stock he invariably is better informed about management's illegal activity than the unsuspecting people to whom he sells the stock. And he expects thereby to benefit (necessarily at the purchasers' expense). I realise that that is the advantage that rigorous analysis confers and is what fundamental stockpicking is all about. But in an ironical sense, Marc ends up benefiting financially from the same nefarious activity that he exposes !! I suppose that is the vigilante's fee? Anyhow, obviously much better that he exposes crooks to prevent them from causing further damage. Please dont take this as some sort of criticism Marc if you read it. I am a huge fan of yours. My point no doubt is nonsensical.
  • SS
    Soo S.
    7 February 2021 @ 11:12
    Christ, this is the most powerful interview I've seen on RV. Thanks very much for this. This is even more impactful because we know Marc's background -- the RV interview a couple of years ago, Marc being interviewed by Grant Williams. Respect to Marc!
  • JG
    Jonnie G.
    6 February 2021 @ 15:38
    Marc is so easy to listen to. I've seen two of his videos and I can't wait to hear more. He is one of those characters that gets the whole room listening. Great interview
    • SG
      Stuart G.
      7 February 2021 @ 01:54
      So true. If I met him in an island bar I would just buy him drinks and listen to him tell stories till 2am.
  • RM
    Russell M.
    6 February 2021 @ 20:36
    Collusion, the smash and grab guys do it every single day! It happens every day on CYDY. SEC doesn't care or doesn't have the resources pursue it.
  • RM
    Russell M.
    6 February 2021 @ 20:29
    The solution is to limit leverage. The problem is, politically, you can't limit leverage because the market is dependent on it like a cocaine addict. Make the market go cold turkey and the 401k will take a huge hit.
  • RM
    Russell M.
    6 February 2021 @ 20:25
    I love his approach:)
  • RM
    Russell M.
    6 February 2021 @ 20:18
    The problem now is if the Fed reduces fragility by reducing leverage, the market will drop and that will be a big political problem! It isn't going to happen - unfortunately!!!
  • RM
    Russell M.
    6 February 2021 @ 20:06
    The leverage problem is not new. Richard Bookstaber wrote about it in Demons Of Their Own Design covering the overleverage issues in the 90s like Long Term Capital Management, Portfolio Insurance etc. Cohodes is absolutely right! Leverage is unsafe at any speed.
  • RM
    Russell M.
    6 February 2021 @ 19:58
    Smash and Grab Shorts, he is right on! I have experienced that with CYDY. Bashers post on boards in the morning, Citron or Stat News publish false or misleading negative news, the shorts borrow and dump a lot of stock to panic retail investors to sell and drive the share price down and in a few minutes. The shorts then buy it back at the end of the day. They are, to put is less than politely, scum!!!!
  • SK
    S K.
    6 February 2021 @ 08:09
    Worth the entire cost of my subscription.
  • CA
    Chad A.
    6 February 2021 @ 06:49
    I'm like 10 minutes in....please, someone please, just give Marc the SEC and let him do his thing!!!!!
  • NC
    N C.
    4 February 2021 @ 19:04
    I appreciate Marc's honesty and opinions, and Jason did an excellent interview. 1) When Robinhood was garnering attention last year due to sports bettors and stimulus checks, I've been in the market since the early 90's and took a look at their app and website and knew right away this was bad. Promotions was off the charts and bizarre. Their app design looked great if this was for dating or designing birthday cards, but for serious investing? When the news was out long ago that they were selling order flow to Citadel, it was obvious that Robinhooders were getting swindled. Redditers are using this app to stick it to the suit? How ironic. Everyone deserves blame here. 2) I disagree that TBTF entities should pay a TBTF fee. That is just enabling and would make the system worse. Should I be allowed to drive 120mph on the freeway just because I'm rich enough to cover damages in case something happens? That's more inequality right there. The second these entities become TBTF, they should be broken up or regulated because they are putting the system at risk. Big tech comes to mind. I hate regulation, but Marc is right, they put the system at risk. I'm just too stupid to even know how to do this.
    • JA
      Jordan A.
      6 February 2021 @ 00:22
      Excellent points, I could not agree more.
  • JT
    John T.
    3 February 2021 @ 22:51
    One thing I'd add that they should definitely change- Individuals should be able to invest in bonds with reasonable interest rates, so that they aren't forced to play the stock market casino with their retirement accounts.
    • JD
      Jimmy D.
      6 February 2021 @ 00:06
      But then you wouldn't have to gamble your savings on the equity market and the elites need crazy speculation to fend off deflation
  • MO
    Master O.
    5 February 2021 @ 07:20
    Jason when are you going to interview Nassim Taleb and Mark Spitznagel?
  • JD
    Jimmy D.
    5 February 2021 @ 00:34
    Great insight from Marc. It does seem like fraud is basicly accepted until people like him force regulators hand. It is shameful the number of companies that are allowed to remain on the market by US regulators that any high school student with Google could do a search and come to the conclusion they are fraudulent with information from Page 1. The problem is even more extreme for stocks listed on US exchanges, especially Chinese stocks, there is no way that regulators are not aware some of these Chinese companies I won't name are fraudulent if I know as a 20 something retail person
    • WT
      William T.
      5 February 2021 @ 03:06
      Why not name them?
    • JD
      Jimmy D.
      5 February 2021 @ 05:09
      @William T. Look into the board members of some of the Chinese Nasdaq stocks, they seem to like Chinese jail
  • CP
    Chamil P.
    5 February 2021 @ 03:36
    Good insight. To be fair, Chamath went after RH due to the insolvency risk and them not being upfront about it. He was also supportive of short sellers and had a similar view regarding excessive leverage in the system. There was a good exchange between him and Jason Calacanis who is an RH investor on their podcast. Worth listening to.
  • BD
    Brooke D.
    3 February 2021 @ 08:43
    Thanks for this conversation - it really explains the situation in the immediate and the whole. Marc is experienced and it showed. Next time he's on? Ask him to unblock me on Twitter. 😉
    • TT
      Tokyo T.
      3 February 2021 @ 10:58
      It's funny that a superhero crime-fighter would be so sensitive to block you.
    • DD
      Dmitry D.
      3 February 2021 @ 13:10
      I'm blocked too and I never interacted with Marc in any way on Twitter, so not sure what that is about
    • TT
      Tokyo T.
      4 February 2021 @ 22:54
      Marc is so tough he blocked me because I liked one of his tweets
  • JH
    Joseph H.
    4 February 2021 @ 17:27
    Mark reminds me of his beloved Oakland Raiders vs my beloved Pittsburgh Steelers matchups of the 70's. Man to man, no BS, no bending of the rules to favor or disadvantage one-side. To the victor goes the spoils. If you are expecting an Immaculate Reception in investing, time and time again, good luck. Here's to the street brawlers who play by the rules. When the game is over those that lose bear the responsibility for their actions. Take the Bucs and the points.
    • JH
      Joseph H.
      4 February 2021 @ 17:28
      Marc, with all apologies.
  • DS
    David S.
    3 February 2021 @ 17:52
    Excellent as expected. Earlier interviews with Mr. Cohodes on RV are really worth the time spent. I hope we will see him in the Senate Hearings. DLS
    • BA
      BENJAMIN A.
      3 February 2021 @ 20:32
      Great content! I couldn't agree more. Let's hope that we see Mr Cohodes at the Senate hearings!
    • MB
      Matthias B.
      4 February 2021 @ 17:02
      I can only second that! though I fear that they have no interest to hear the real truth
  • KA
    KC A.
    4 February 2021 @ 10:19
    Wow
  • jj
    jason j.
    4 February 2021 @ 05:40
    Marc, You are a brave man, and you have my respect and gratitude. Most sincerely... jj
  • gb
    george b.
    4 February 2021 @ 04:22
    What a great interview Jason! Cohodes is as honest as they come. thank you RV
  • JJ
    Jay J.
    4 February 2021 @ 04:09
    mr. cohodes is great and is one of the really good guys but reaching out to aoc and maxine waters who are chronic liars and corrupt as they come to help the American people is insane. did it not cross his mind how sandy cortez went from a broke indebted bartender spilling beer in applebees to beating a 10 year incumbent, and who was it thatpaid for her seat?
  • FA
    Firas A.
    4 February 2021 @ 01:08
    You should post this video on youtube for free. This needs to be seen by everyone.
  • JC
    Justin C.
    3 February 2021 @ 22:44
    Jason is the most underrated interviewer on this platform. Of course, Marc is the best possible guest in this business, but Jason really did a nice job balancing interjections with space for the subject.
    • JB
      Jason B. | Contributor
      4 February 2021 @ 00:59
      Thanks Justin, far too kind. It was thankfully all about Marc
  • AM
    Alastair M.
    3 February 2021 @ 23:56
    Cohodes in a different class....RV movement should do all they can to support his agenda to engage the Senate
  • BT
    Billy T.
    3 February 2021 @ 23:50
    Thanks for all that you do.
  • TS
    Tamim S.
    3 February 2021 @ 23:16
    This guy is a hero
  • DG
    Dr G.
    3 February 2021 @ 22:25
    thank you for sharing your thoughts, Mr. Cohodes
  • CM
    Chris M.
    3 February 2021 @ 21:21
    my favourite guest on RV so far. More Marc please.
  • CM
    Chris M.
    3 February 2021 @ 20:38
    the cartoon network. hahahahah. how can you not like this guy!
  • KD
    Kelley D.
    3 February 2021 @ 20:34
    uhhhh. i now get it..Robinhood has same business model as Macau junket operator..bring customer to casino..offer some perks..and split diff with Wynn...
  • CP
    Christopher P.
    3 February 2021 @ 20:13
    Short sellers are an extension of our SEC investigators!
  • BA
    BENJAMIN A.
    3 February 2021 @ 19:47
    This is some of the most intelligent commentary I've throughout all this madness
  • JD
    John D.
    3 February 2021 @ 18:18
    I wish RV had Mark on daily.
  • JF
    Joao F.
    3 February 2021 @ 16:50
    Great discussion - "Too big to fail tax"!
  • AH
    Andreas H.
    3 February 2021 @ 16:46
    100% agree! Just to get one thing clear, I (and I think everybody with a brain!) have nothing against short sellers who go after crimials, we love them! But stupid hedge funds that short stocks that have (had @ 16 like Hedgeye called) a good fundamental story like GME and short them > 100% of the float with leverage in a Quad2 (GDP up, Inflation up) Quarter (where most shorted stocks outperform!!!) that are punished by the market? I do not hate them too, but stupidity gets punished!
  • LA
    Linda A.
    3 February 2021 @ 16:39
    That's a great idea- 300% margin. That puts the risk back to the buyer & limits the co's risk. U will get it straight from Marc. Thanks Marc & RV team- all week has been a blast for me. We need the great short sellers who finds the fraud- Chanos, Cohodes, Left & Block - u save investors & u deserve the fruits of your labor. Marc I prayed for u & your family when Mimidex sent the police & FBI to your home. Stay safe & I appreciate u!
  • BK
    Binyam K.
    3 February 2021 @ 15:37
    Great discussion. Thanks Marc and Jason. I learn a lot!
  • PV
    Peter V.
    3 February 2021 @ 14:42
    Cohodes seems to a have great moral compass. We need guys like him running US..
  • CG
    Christine G.
    3 February 2021 @ 14:41
    Thank you Marc. If you hear from Senator Brown and the other officials, I hope you come back to RV and give us an update.
  • JA
    John A.
    3 February 2021 @ 14:04
    "Let's go to 300 percent margin on these names" EXACTLY Marc, that is what upset me most about this. They didn't give the retail a choice in the matter, they just took the right to trade away from them. Make them put up the margin, and if they are crazy enough to do so then it is their funeral. But don't prevent one side from trading while the other side has a free hand. All you accomplish is validate in everyone's minds that the system is set up to screw them.
  • TM
    Tommy M.
    3 February 2021 @ 14:04
    Can we have the transcript, please?
  • AP
    Adam P.
    3 February 2021 @ 13:49
    Wow. This was truly excellent. Thanks for sharing your story, Marc! I'm excited to follow this as it develops.
  • TR
    Theodore R.
    3 February 2021 @ 13:08
    #CohodesforSECChairman
  • TR
    Tobias R.
    3 February 2021 @ 13:08
    This was really great, thank you Marc and RV!
  • YA
    Yuuji A.
    3 February 2021 @ 12:56
    Please make this interview available to the public. As Marc said, people need to learn about this while it’s fresh in people’s minds! We need to do the right thing
  • JH
    Joseph H.
    3 February 2021 @ 12:33
    Brilliant Marc and Jason. Thank you for helping provide the understanding of what happens under the hood.
  • AW
    Abigail W.
    3 February 2021 @ 10:20
    Marc kind of short sellers are wallstreet warriors.
  • TD
    Timothy D.
    3 February 2021 @ 09:36
    Amazing insights from an incredibly honest person. When we remove the ability to make adequate returns from sitting still (cash or bonds) due to Quantitative Easing et al, leverage explodes. Perhaps the system needs to break first before true change comes. Unfortunately hard not to see CB’s turn to Moooorrrre QE !!
  • JS
    John S.
    3 February 2021 @ 08:34
    Outstanding!