Market Irrationality, Monetary Confidence, and Systemic Change

Published on
July 2nd, 2020
Duration
66 minutes


Market Irrationality, Monetary Confidence, and Systemic Change

The Interview ·
Featuring Dee Smith and Peter Atwater

Published on: July 2nd, 2020 • Duration: 66 minutes

Peter Atwater, president of Financial Insyghts LLC, joins Dee Smith of the Strategic Insights Group to break down Atwater's perspective on systemic fragmentation and how that will impact financial markets. Atwater breaks down the end of cycle phenomena of overconfidence, fraud, and an eventual recovery. He and Smith also discuss where market sentiment is headed from here. Atwater and Smith explain how markets act like the world's most expansive social network and the role of money, markets, and faith in making that network work. Finally, Atwater breaks down the relationship between inflation and narrative and why markets have not seen the level of inflation that many have predicted. Filmed June 30, 2020.

Comments

Transcript

  • RW
    Raymond W.
    6 July 2020 @ 03:46
    This is one of the best interviews that Real Vision has done. The questions were bang on and the answers were excellent. Of course, that is my opinion because of my confirmation bias. I am surprised that they never said the words “confirmation bias” near the end of the interview when they were indeed talking about confirmation bias. The mind is a virtual realty machine and the Venn diagram that shows their belief systems and mine have a lot of overlap ... so of course I liked their discussion.
  • SW
    Stephen W.
    4 July 2020 @ 20:23
    Everyone putting the rally down to Robinhood traders and sports gamblers, it's an incorrect narrative being pushed by bears. I'm in and I'm neither a Robinhood day trader or a sports gambler, my thought process is this....... 1. Cash is being devalued 2. Bonds offer no return - alternative investment vehicles are being reduced 3. The Fed are all over the market pumping massive liquidity 4. The market might be looking like a frothy ponzi but now everything is......money, gold, stocks, houses,.......everything......I choose anything but cash over a 5-10 year timeframe....long bitcoin.....long gold......long US equities. 5. I believe the political risk (driven by wealth inequality) will be overcome by massive fiscal stimulus in addition to monetary stimulus whenever the market falls. This will lead to inflation in financial asset prices and eventual price inflation. Am I optimistic about the future of the world? No. Do I think I'm going to get rich....no....I'm just protecting my wealth. Do I want to stay in cash?......hell no! Could there be a big pullback? Yes and I'm a buyer. Are there too many people bitching because they missed the rally?......absolutely.
    • MO
      Miguel O.
      4 July 2020 @ 22:18
      second that
    • BC
      Brente C.
      5 July 2020 @ 21:10
      Well stated. I find the "risk markets are rising from reckless speculation" arguments lacking. Cash is becoming a speculative asset with increasing political risk. Bonds are worse. Protecting and storing value safely is not the slam dunk it used to be.
    • AL
      Alfonso L.
      6 July 2020 @ 00:10
      Avoiding cash is a pretty important choice. Just so long as those "investments" don't go belly up when the economy stalls. A lot depends on IF the government puts more money out there or IF people are left to fend for themselves. I think that more "free" money for the people is coming as the voters want cash sent to them. Which means the economy should be somewhat OK if you ignore that debt. The debt will create inflation, inflation higher prices, and those will debt will win. The problem with debt is that if you have too much, you get shaken out. Balance matters. And I did buy into Airlines as having value thinking this time is different, pretty sure it wasn't. I did avoid payment processors, hate them -- it's a business of deception which at some point is going to reverse on them.
  • DS
    Daniel S.
    5 July 2020 @ 05:07
    I like his library. Check out the Kamasutra -Edition :)
  • TS
    Tom S.
    5 July 2020 @ 02:45
    Gosh, I thought high interest rates in the late '70's early '80's reflected unprecedented demographic demands as baby boomers all sought homes, and 'the good life' at the same time. Now I hear those high rates were simply a screwed-up belief system. Live and learn, I guess...
  • MO
    Miguel O.
    4 July 2020 @ 21:47
    Conclusion: <I just longed the VIX> (on top of what I already have for NOV 2020) Thx gents!
  • PS
    Pawan S.
    2 July 2020 @ 15:52
    This has become my favorite. Very rare and brilliant ideas discussed here. Very different from general Macro theme in other interviews.
    • AP
      Alfonso P.
      4 July 2020 @ 12:50
      More of this please
  • DS
    David S.
    3 July 2020 @ 22:12
    Great expansive discussion
  • SZ
    Sarjan Z.
    2 July 2020 @ 21:47
    Anyone else notice the Kama Sutra in the top left corner of Dee’s library? 😂
    • SS
      Steve S.
      2 July 2020 @ 22:23
      Absolutely hilarious. Couldn't watch Dee at all during the interview. To make it even funnier, The Kama Sutra was lying horizontally on all the books that were vertical. Interesting position, must have learnt it from the Kama Sutra 😂😂😂😂
    • MB
      Michael B.
      3 July 2020 @ 09:21
      Geez, your observant
  • TG
    Terry G.
    3 July 2020 @ 01:42
    This is very good inspiteof the sausage fest these days
  • Jv
    Juri v.
    3 July 2020 @ 01:36
    Sweet bitterness... missing the trends... simple crowd to blame, here is the goat. Market equals wirecard, equals social media, what a game. Lucky we have Carl Atwater Jung, teaching the gambler how the world worked, and pricing, if not always too late... sweet bitterness. Happy I stretched my bandwidth; philosophy, psychology, and sure have we found yet another letter to finalise that masterpiece, a personal touch. God of all markets, let us use numbers, let us use body types, next recovery, shaped away, prayed enough, we shall not care, sweet bitterness. But one thing assured, let social unrest resonate when confident and vulnerable oppose, it oppressingly sums up to zero... It does sum up to zero. These topics deserve more depth and knowledge. Shout out to Dee, you kept it real with some vision, at least, sweet.
  • DS
    David S.
    2 July 2020 @ 19:56
    One comment while watching and an excellent presentation. In my experience identity has always been local to national on up. Only if two Americans meet on markedly foreign soil, do they identify themselves as American first. Then they discuss state or local IDs. To believe that I would identify myself as an American first in Nashville seems strange. DLS
    • JF
      Jack F. | Real Vision
      2 July 2020 @ 21:10
      A very interesting observation!
    • DS
      David S.
      3 July 2020 @ 00:01
      On the other hand, when it comes to being governed, which may have been the point, I agree that local to national is stronger now. When national leadership started to direct its policies to its own political base, we crossed the Rubicon. The entertainment news accelerated this trend to a point that political leadership is only interested in its base at the national, state and often the local level. Entertainment news is making lots of money and rock stars while there is no US coordinated policy against COVID-19. During the shutdown I could not go to the pub as it was closed. My concern now is will I have the self-discipline to lock myself down for my own safety if necessary. This is a difficult problem. In Australia the guards guarding the returning residents in quarantine partied together. Sadly, another outbreak in a country that has done an excellent job containing the virus. DLS
  • RK
    Roger K.
    2 July 2020 @ 08:38
    I have noticed that the quality of the RV materiel is recently going down ( due to disproportionate catering to Crypto) . Then they published this interview!
    • JL
      Jack L.
      2 July 2020 @ 21:55
      Concur. Crypto is very far from being a developed, mature market, & therefore it has a _yuge_ enthusiasm bias & "promise halo" around it that makes it hard to discuss w/ many folks.
  • RD
    REMCO D.
    2 July 2020 @ 21:38
    Fascinating stuff again. Thanks!
  • PE
    Paul E.
    2 July 2020 @ 20:35
    Very interesting discussion! Thank you.
  • CA
    Cyrus A.
    2 July 2020 @ 17:58
    Very sharp analysis thank you. Fascinating discussion on fragmentation and the psychology of markets
  • PU
    Peter U.
    2 July 2020 @ 17:33
    First interview conducted by Dee that I enjoyed. He kept his politics out of it while still discussing implications of poor politics. Thank you.
  • MT
    Mark T.
    2 July 2020 @ 17:20
    Great line: The Fed is as vulnerable as a confederate statue. Love it.
  • TP
    Timothy P.
    2 July 2020 @ 16:19
    Mr. Atwater dropped in stature when he uttered - "I doubt manipulation (in the news) can be sustained for long." Yes, that would require a device that never sleeps, running code or an "algorithm" that has inherent properties and bias. Where ever could one get such a thing? I laughed.
  • AB
    Ameet B.
    2 July 2020 @ 09:47
    Nice conversation. Anyone else notice The Karma Sutra on Dee's bookshelf? :)
    • AB
      Ameet B.
      2 July 2020 @ 10:08
      More importantly - excellent interview - insightful questions and answers.
    • TW
      Thomas W.
      2 July 2020 @ 14:00
      If a platform was judged on the diversity of books behind their guests; I think RV would be at the top. Perhaps guests should be asked to present the best book they don’t think anyone else has on their shelves.
  • MJ
    Marc J.
    2 July 2020 @ 11:20
    Brilliant.
  • MJ
    Marc J.
    2 July 2020 @ 11:20
    Brilliant.
  • mb
    melville b.
    2 July 2020 @ 07:44
    I never comment. There is a very worthwhile discussion of investor psychology in this interview.
    • KG
      Kos G.
      2 July 2020 @ 07:54
      there are 2 more interviews from Peter Atwater on RV. Also great to watch!
  • EM
    Eivind M.
    2 July 2020 @ 07:38
    This is one of the best ones yet. Atwater is a master explainer, and manages to give a somber look at where we are today and what the historical backdrop is. I don't usually rewatch RV material, but this one is too good to not rewatch. Thank you!