Policy Response to COVID-19 and the Fate of the United States

Published on
July 27th, 2020
75 minutes

Policy Response to COVID-19 and the Fate of the United States

The Interview ·
Featuring Michael Green and Srinivas Thiruvadanthai

Published on: July 27th, 2020 • Duration: 75 minutes

Mike Green of Logica Capital sat down with Srinivas Thiruvadanthai, director of research at the Jerome Levy Forecasting Center, in the last interview to be filmed in Real Vision's studios before the world and our daily routines would be drastically changed by unforeseeable total lockdowns. A lot has changed since then, and in this new interview, they reexamine their outlooks with the advantage of fresh data. Together they discuss the side effects of policies like total lockdown, increased unemployment insurance, and PPP while also examining the social and economic undercurrents that, although accelerated by COVID-19, were established long before it arrived on our shores. Using historical parallels to the Roman Empire, Sri and Mike also think about their long-term outlooks for the U.S. and its currency, taking a view that the U.S. is not in its dying days. Filmed on July 23, 2020.



  • ND
    Nathaniel D.
    11 August 2020 @ 16:03
    I would be interested in reading more about the funding mechanism mike talks about - pushing prices of long duration assets higher to generate more collateral. Anyone know where he got that idea from? He did mention the muni space; I wonder if someone in that industry has written about it...
  • JC
    Jason C.
    7 August 2020 @ 20:29
    Mike should interview his old boss and see if he has anything new to say
  • TD
    T D.
    6 August 2020 @ 15:15
    Love listening to Mike and Sri have a conversion like this. A true meeting of intellectuals.
  • HK
    H K.
    27 July 2020 @ 09:38
    Great discussion here, a few thoughts - MG has made the argument of the risk parity game faltering once the $ yields -ve. I am not so sure as what matters isn't the yield to maturity but the effective carry+roll. If a bond can be repo'd at -60 bp, -40 bp ytm is still +ve expected returns (+ roll in your favour) - The pull(down) to par argument is very very interesting and merits almost a full session - with an analysis of the duration existing out there and when the value curve turns negative (i.e. even at same yields, etc. the carry+roll for the average bond turns negative as it moves towards 100.0 value) - ST draws a very good analogy to the Indian experience of how an intense minority identity dynamic over decades causes the rest (majority) to coalesce and form a cohesive group where none may have existed in the path - with hostile ramifications perhaps - The changing discussion around the perception of the American creed is very relevant to our times. 'Everything is a lie' is a great way to put it, a weak form of Gödel incompleteness, in some ways - I am somewhat more pessimistic than the ending lines though - the US has maintained absolute dominance by acting as an IQ magnet (IQ being the shorthand for the top 0.01% of intellectual brainpower in hard, soft and wet sciences and engineering). A valid perception of hostility and the ill treatment of students and foreign born people employed in the US, sometimes being treated worse than criminals for protectionist labour votes is driving away the top talent at a rate unimaginable even a decade ago. With 5% of the world's population, the US has managed to corner 20-30% of the global 0.01% intellect over a very long period of time - and that game is sadly finished.
    • LS
      Lemony S.
      5 August 2020 @ 03:26
      IQ magnet means nothing when you lack identity and unity, and you already have a high enough IQ if foreigners (especially those unrelated and don't have common identity) don't come in; the post 65 immigrants were a net negative, big time.
  • mc
    mark c.
    28 July 2020 @ 01:09
    Living outside the US I was really struck by Mike's comment in regard to Octavian. What if he is right. What if the US is at the end of the republic and the beginning of the empire. It hit me like a ton of bricks, it is so against the main stream view of the beginning of the end narrative, it could be the beginning of the beginning, especially if the EM one trick pony advantage is gone. Completely shifted my view, what if........? I have been a member of RV since the beginning, one of the best discussions I have witnessed. Well done and thank you.
    • rc
      ritesh c.
      28 July 2020 @ 02:13
      Mark, I agree with you. This episode really made me challenge my anchors and made me lose my sleep. This really gave me pause and made me think hard!
    • MC
      Mark C.
      28 July 2020 @ 05:50
      I agree. It definitely has me thinking. I haven't been a member for more than a few months, but I have consumed a crap ton here and this is what I love. I have to really digest what I am getting here. This one is a gem.
    • CJ
      Christopher J.
      28 July 2020 @ 18:26
      Wikipedia: "Many consider Augustus to be Rome's greatest emperor; his policies certainly extended the Empire's life span and initiated the celebrated Pax Romana or Pax Augusta." Doesn't sound too bad!
    • DS
      David S.
      4 August 2020 @ 08:40
      Many of the emperors were tyrants. Marcus Aurelius was a stoic. I do not think we shall see his like again. DLS
  • SW
    Shane W.
    29 July 2020 @ 02:34
    While H1N1 did have high worldwide death counts (151,700-575,400 deaths estimated), the same CDC estimates also said there may have been 1 BILLION cases by the end of 2010. What does that mean? 1. It was highly spreadable 2.the mortality rate was low - but you know... high denominator Added to that, the “R0” for COViD is higher and we still have a ways to go before this runs its course. We could debate effective policy response but it seems like COVID justified a slightly elevated policy response to me?? Check out fivethirtyeight.com for a pretty decent analysis of this.
    • TB
      Tobin B.
      30 July 2020 @ 02:00
      COVID: 700,000 deaths worldwide (wow!) 7,000,000,000 humans worldwide (also wow!) Death Rate = .01 %. (wow?) Far cry less from the projected 3% death rate. Im sick of this fearmongering! 2.4 million humans die every month regularly. Wake up people!
    • LS
      Lemony S.
      31 July 2020 @ 20:16
      This has never been a lethal disease, from the time I was talking about it originally (Ioannidis, Levitt et all), and even less so now. We knew it then from multiple studies, but the globalists don't care, and it's an election year.
    • SG
      Stuart G.
      1 August 2020 @ 19:22
      Let's talk economy. COVID can fill the hospitals of a major metropolitan area for a month or more. That's just a fact, it's happened several times already and will probably happen again. Profitable elective surgeries are put on hold. If a portion of the people stay at home and don't spend money for a period of time, these behaviors affect the economy. Layoffs occur and spending decreases further. Virus numbers aside, politics aside, human suffering aside... that's what the economics of COVID are about.
  • DS
    David S.
    27 July 2020 @ 20:58
    It does not matter what your politics are, it is easy to understand that President Trump is excellent at dividing the population into "We" and "They." This is the basis of populism - being the only savior of one group. Knitting together smaller groups has always been the path to win elections. When elected, leaders try to work toward the common good while keeping a close eye on their base. In modern US politics- maybe because of social media, TV networks and internet groups - the winners of elections, on both sides, keep working toward their base. This ends up with a nation divided without the ability to look for win/win programs. It is, what it is. DLS
    • DT
      David T.
      28 July 2020 @ 18:06
      It was divided before Trump already.
    • TM
      The-First-James M.
      28 July 2020 @ 23:26
      Indeed it was, but Trump has exacerbated the divide.
    • TB
      Tobin B.
      30 July 2020 @ 02:14
      Trump may say some stupid things, but look at what he has done. - alerted US citizens to the China problem (went on 20 years) - Put more pedophiles behind bars than Obama and Clinton Does mainstream media ever mention these things? No.. Do your own research friends, and understand that only thru unity will we survive. It's how humans got this far.
    • LS
      Lemony S.
      31 July 2020 @ 20:25
      Seriously, David, Trump is the divider? Would you like to see leftist and President Obama's quotes? Or did you pay attention to his hack partisan "eulogy"? Give me a break. You've been trying to tell us lies for years, like "it is in the privacy of people's bedrooms" --- til we wake up and trannies are reading our kindergartners stories, or "You can choose your own sex" or unarmed killings by the cops are seemingly only on blacks (double actually on whites and hispanics, never seen 1 single video on TV, and blacks are in 79% of violent crimes) ... the whole narrative is a lie. The nation was divided because D and R both moved left. We have a larger government, DC is a cesspool and has the highest median income in the nation, the FBI and CIA are criminal organizations at this point, etc. You haven't been paying any attention, OR you don't care because of tribe. Either way, you are in la la land, like all the people telling you that they are a "woman", but XY.
  • RS
    Robert S.
    27 July 2020 @ 22:06
    It’s a flu. It’s a damned f**king flu!
    • GT
      Gene T.
      27 July 2020 @ 22:52
      The f**king flu doesn't fill up all the ICU beds in metro Dallas/FW...a family friend in Dallas, 44 years old, also believed it was just the f**king flu - until he got sick. Had to wait 3 days for a hospital bed (sent home twice), and now in rough condition in ICU. If you're so sure it's just the flu, hop down to your nearest COVID ward and walk around without a mask. Yah, didn't think so.
    • PB
      PHILLIP B.
      27 July 2020 @ 23:11
      The goal is to get COVID-19 to be "just like the flu." The goal is to get the annual number of cases and the fatality of COVID-19 to be about the same as the annual number of cases and the fatality rate of the typical, seasonal flu.
    • WG
      Wade G.
      29 July 2020 @ 19:02
      The Flu doesn't leave reasonable numbers of "recovered" cases having lung or heart damage. U may be able to find many instances of projections that were too dire, or responses that were overdone (mis-calibrated), or examples of uncounted/ignored costs of responses, but none of those make your assertion accurate. It's not the flu and its not even close to the flu.
    • TB
      Tobin B.
      30 July 2020 @ 02:11
      You're right, Robert, it is. The folks that have the fear, unfortunately, are enabling poor policy decisions to come. I am with you.
    • LS
      Lemony S.
      31 July 2020 @ 20:20
      Yes it is, which is what excess mortality will show, but first we have to suffer the globalist and High Priest Gates and deacon Fauci's abuse and lording. The problem is that most people don't have any idea on bias, or statistics (you can't lie about all cause mortality), and far too many people are government or corporate swamp creatures, including many physicians. Not all of my colleagues buy this stuff, but the political stranglehold progressives have on a lot of states means that they are the arbiters of a career or not, and this even supposedly in our land of free speech, which has been rendered naught (not R0, teehee) as has been medicine with no scientific basis for much of its practices and leftist propaganda (choose your own sex anyone? LOL).
  • ar
    andrew r.
    30 July 2020 @ 18:31
    Mike's the man, but this is not my favorite subject for him.
    • LS
      Lemony S.
      31 July 2020 @ 20:14
      That's because honesty and the truth are not comfortable topics for most people, especially in the modern world.
  • TS
    Thomas S.
    30 July 2020 @ 22:30
    Great discussion. All those Roman references make me want to visit the library and revisit some history books !
  • JC
    John C.
    29 July 2020 @ 05:57
    Okay... RV needs to get a real market monetarist on the show to discredit some of this stuff.
    • TM
      The-First-James M.
      29 July 2020 @ 11:32
      Like who? Please don't say Peter Schiff...
    • TB
      Tobin B.
      30 July 2020 @ 02:07
      I also hear Keynsian and turn away.
    • JC
      John C.
      30 July 2020 @ 21:39
      More like Scott Sumner. There seems to be a fallacy throughout that high interest rates equals "ammunition". But anyway very good discussion overall.
  • MT
    Mark T.
    30 July 2020 @ 20:51
    So there seems to be a reason the bottom 40% of earners are the bottom 40% of earners. In extremely uncertain times, they get a windfall, and spend it instead of saving for a rainy day. Gotta love Americans.
  • GG
    Gordon G.
    28 July 2020 @ 19:54
    Great video. But you need to fix mobile viewing. Android app is crap (drains battery, have to restart the app multiple times to get through a video etc) and viewing on the web takes 1.5x the time because of all the lag.
    • JH
      Jesse H.
      28 July 2020 @ 22:50
      Completely agree. Have now tried to post two long-ish comments, and have had the same error message come back to me both times on the iPhone (“Unable to perform requested action”). Thanks guys. Not sure what’s going on here. Will keep comments to laptop use for now. Cheers.
    • TM
      The-First-James M.
      28 July 2020 @ 23:23
      I watch in the Browser on my Android. Can't be bothered with an app for every single web-based utility.
    • PF
      Patrick F.
      30 July 2020 @ 17:30
      Agreed...haven't been able to watch on my TV since last fall due to loss of Chromecast support. Love the content but won't be renewing my subscription at this point.
  • PJ
    Peter J.
    30 July 2020 @ 08:58
    Mike you need a new mic, your sound is poor.
    • PJ
      Peter J.
      30 July 2020 @ 09:41
      However, a fantastic discussion, will need to read transcript to get full value. Thanks.
  • TB
    Tobin B.
    30 July 2020 @ 02:07
    Mike - Thanks for staying up late (perhaps with coffee) to complete this discussion with expected and commended enthusiasm. I continue to enjoy your intuitivity, and I thoroughly appreciate your big picture resilient thinking. Srini - thanks for your input. Im curious to hear about which period of unrest you speak of, as Modhi seems to have largely united India on a national stage, I am curious if his policies have echoed the isolationist ideals of the recent western Fourth Turning internally in India. I have my own opinions; I'd be interested in hearing yours.
  • HS
    Harrison S.
    27 July 2020 @ 13:37
    Yes more Mike Green please. Would like to see a roundtable between Mike Green, Raoul Pal, Brent Johnson, Julian Brigden, and Grant Williams discussing the dollar/gold//stocks/crypto.
    • CS
      Christopher S.
      27 July 2020 @ 19:16
      I asked for this elsewhere but gotta get Richard Werner back! I watched his interview and the Princes of Yen documentary after the Hugh Hendry interviews and he is in the weeds where the credit driving all asset price movements gets created. We all know that gold and maybe crypto must go up if central banks have to flood the world with currency but I felt Werner is on the ground and in the trenches with these local banks getting eaten up by big ones (centralization/"Soveitization"). If you're interested in the plumbing, call the plumber!
    • DS
      David S.
      27 July 2020 @ 20:10
      I always respect Mr. Green's perspectives and thoughtfulness. I prefer a dialog for understanding these subjects. By its nature, a roundtable discussion is preliminary and outlines points of view. In a dialog like this, we can go deeper into each person's ideas and together they develop a synergy that focuses better on issues. This was easily shown in this discussion. DLS
    • DR
      David R.
      29 July 2020 @ 08:19
      @DLS - Globalization like everything moves in cycles, ebbs and flows. So while I'll agree with you that globalization is not going away, it seems to be in a period of ebbing currently thanks in part to (in trump's words) "your favorite president". The implication being that the disruption of global trade is both recessionary and inflationary (ie, stagflation). Will trump get the blame for stagflation? Or will he successfully deflect it?
    • DS
      David S.
      30 July 2020 @ 01:55
      David R. - President Trump has many devoted followers in the US. I am not one. See how discrete, but respectful I am. Visited Brisbane before COVID Times. Loved it. Keep up the good work down under. DLS
  • TN
    Tim N.
    27 July 2020 @ 10:54
    Agree if globalization ends EM are f****d. But I think this process won't be complete and will take longer than anyone expects. Rather I think trading blocks will emerge with EM who ally with the US doing rather well. Also demographics will ultimately favour these EM if they have a younger population who will be more willing consumers. Where do you think our elites will deploy all the capital they are sequestering - a lot will obviously go into a deflationary US market for safety but a proportion will go into EM and thats where the vol will be.
    • DR
      David R.
      27 July 2020 @ 12:31
      Globalization may end but then the world will splinter and IMO the most promising splinter is Eurasia if that materializes, as looks possible. If so, I'd bet on that in my portfolio, not on US or Nafta. Eurasia overwhelms it.
    • DR
      David R.
      27 July 2020 @ 12:31
      I think one cannot categorize "EM" as one basket because it's so diverse. But if the growth doesn't come from "EM", then where else? UK or Europe or US?...lol.
    • DS
      David S.
      27 July 2020 @ 20:14
      Globalization is here to stay. There needs to be a balance among the global, the regional, the national and the local. They are all important. DLS
    • DR
      David R.
      29 July 2020 @ 08:21
      @DLS - Globalization like everything moves in cycles; ebbs and flows. So while I'll agree with you that globalization is here to stay, it seems to be in a period of ebbing currently thanks in part to (in trump's words) "your favorite president". The implication being that the disruption of global trade is both recessionary and inflationary (ie, stagflation). Will trump get the blame for stagflation? Or will he successfully deflect it?
  • ES
    Edward S.
    27 July 2020 @ 17:40
    I would also like to request a roundtable with Mike, Raoul, Brent, Julian and Grant. I would also throw in Steph Pomboy to the mix as well. Fantastic interview.
    • JH
      Jesse H.
      28 July 2020 @ 22:28
      Great suggestion. My picks would be Raoul, Mike, Brent, Julian, Ben Melkman and Grant.
  • EW
    Evan W.
    28 July 2020 @ 00:49
    The podcast he referenced that he did recently was with Grant Williams and Bill Fleckenstein as part of Grant Williams new podcast. Like this interview, it was excellent.
    • DT
      David T.
      28 July 2020 @ 18:04
      It was fantastic.
    • JH
      Jesse H.
      28 July 2020 @ 22:25
      This was excellent. The podcast was even better. I listened to it twice. It’s about 2 hr long and worth every minute.
  • AA
    Andrew A.
    27 July 2020 @ 12:15
    What book were they referring to at around the 15 min mark? Something about inflation?
    • PG
      Philippe G.
      27 July 2020 @ 14:48
      The Great Wave : Price Revolutions and the Rhythm of History by David Hackett Fischer according to interview transcript.
    • AA
      Andrew A.
      28 July 2020 @ 19:25
      Thanks Philippe.
  • AD
    Anna D.
    28 July 2020 @ 17:11
    More Mike Green please :)
  • jt
    john t.
    28 July 2020 @ 17:01
    mike green needs to be the interviewee
  • ea
    edwin a.
    27 July 2020 @ 20:31
    Interesting to see Mike refer to Matt Stoller's Goliath. Although I think many (most?) RV viewers may disagree with Stoller on a lot, I think his perspective might give an idea of a more populist / anti-trust version of where US politics might head in coming years that gets relatively little media attention. Stoller could make an interesting (and controversial) RV guest.
    • ea
      edwin a.
      28 July 2020 @ 15:39
      It's also good to see Stoller's book surface a relatively recent and relevant historical reference. The Roman Republic/Empire is certainly interesting, and it comes up on RV pretty often. But, seriously, is that really the most appropriate historical reference point for considering what's happening in America and other developed countries now? The US is facing questions of how to deal with monopolies / monopsonies, not only in tech, but in retail, agribusiness, etc., and related concentration of power and wealth. People on both sides of the political divide are paying attention, to the point that this may become a crucial issue in upcoming elections, and thus a crucial issue for people who want to understand investments and markets and protect savings and wealth. Which of 3 (or more) courses the country takes -- laissez-faire vs. a Teddy Roosevelt model of permitting monopolies but regulating them vs. a more Brandeisian model of breaking them up -- is a very important question. I know it's not specifically what RV is focused on, but as long as guests are going to jump into these big political-economic questions, it seems worth some attention. A lot of the RV commentary on political economy tends toward either alarm that the US will suddenly become capital-S Socialist (!), or that it's the fall of the Roman Republic / Empire (!). It would be helpful to see discussions talk about the much more likely possibility of relatively incremental change along themes consistent with American history and culture. Maybe the kind of topic that guests like Adam Tooze and Mark Blyth could tackle?
  • KB
    Kishavan B.
    28 July 2020 @ 12:44
    I’ll watch anything that Mike’s in. Always insightful and clear-thinking.
  • Av
    Ad v.
    28 July 2020 @ 10:41
    Quality conversation... the reason why I signed up for RV.
  • CS
    Christopher S.
    28 July 2020 @ 05:23
    Excellent. Cycles of republic and empire. Mike Green sounding like Spengler or Toynbee. Hearing the long dollar thesis Mike and Sri (and Raoul) agree on was nice confirmation bias from more people I respect. I am short US equities and I see it as basically the same trade.
  • RD
    REMCO D.
    28 July 2020 @ 01:30
    Fantastic. The bit on identity politics was very insightful. Thanks guys.
  • TG
    Terry G.
    27 July 2020 @ 12:00
    More Mike Green less Raoul Pal please!
    • EF
      Eric F.
      27 July 2020 @ 12:07
      Mike’s great, but so too is Raoul. More of both please.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      27 July 2020 @ 17:27
      I'm bored of me too!
    • PU
      Peter U.
      27 July 2020 @ 17:33
      another classless comment
    • DS
      David S.
      27 July 2020 @ 21:39
      Mr. Pal, I know it is extraordinarily difficult to present on RVTV so often. You are, however, one of the best interviewers period. It seems to me that discussing different points of view and testing your own positions is part of your DNA. I hope that interviewing more and less individual presentations will help you balance . I know each interview helps all of us. Be kind to yourself and your loved ones. DLS
    • PE
      Paul E.
      27 July 2020 @ 21:56
      I like RV the way it is, plenty of talent with different styles having interesting and informative interviews, and Raoul is pretty good too! Variety!
    • ND
      Nicole D.
      27 July 2020 @ 23:07
      More Raoul and Julian pls.
  • DR
    David R.
    27 July 2020 @ 08:51
    Wow, even as the dollar has crashed >1000 pips in 4 months to multiyear lows, crashing below all key longterm support levels and ultimately headed much lower from a technical perspective, the dead-wrong hapless dollar bulls still don't "get" the obvious. The dollar is rubbish, the US economy is barely alive on life support and it ranks among the world's worst, this year. The US unconventional fiscal & monetary policies are by far the most statistically extreme, unconventional and desperate in the world. Yeah I wanna own that... not!! All-time highs in gold scream that something big is very wrong and anyone bullish on US and dollars is misguided. Near-term sentiments studies show that many positions are currently stretched, but medium to long term the US is doomed. Folks should look at history and learn some TA. Ray Dalio's extensive research and latest opus last week (free) provides a measured historical perspective of where the US is now and why it's most likely doomed. Highly recommended.
    • DR
      David R.
      27 July 2020 @ 08:56
      Could we ever get Ray Dalio on RV? Perhaps with Ed Harrison or Stanley Druckenmiller... sweet!
    • UJ
      Ulf J.
      27 July 2020 @ 09:22
      I think it is possible USD get higher before she dies, the problem for USD is no one really like when the USA use USD as a weapon with sanctions like the Nordstream project. I guess there is a will in the World to devalue USD against Gold.
    • NS
      Nathan S.
      27 July 2020 @ 09:37
      What is your favourite Ponzi scheme and why is it Bridgewater? 🤔
    • NR
      Nathan R.
      27 July 2020 @ 20:17
      Rough numbers: There is a $3-4T hole in the US economy alone. Fed reserves do nothing for the real economy. Treasury TGA is $1.6T. $3.5T-$1.6T = $1.9T smoking hole. This is extend and pretend until the election. AAHHHHH, (hair on fire) GLD, SLV, USD....where are the Softs (w/ exception of sugar), HG, Oil and UST confirmation of all the MASSIVE inflation. Jobs gone, wages cut, no raises, demographics are for shit...and everyone thinks JPY and EUR are the future!? Those economies don't export....they die. Hell, half of EU is dead already with no tourism. Bankruptcies just heating up. Every business owner I have spoken with in the last month has ZERO order book for 1H 2021. ZERO.
    • DR
      David R.
      27 July 2020 @ 22:49
      @Nathan - Those are the examples of Mr Pal's coming "insolvency phase" following the current "hopium phase" which began after the "liquidity phase" in Feb-March. The argument is that CB's cannot print orders, sales, jobs like they print money to pump financial assets. I'm sure we'll see a real-life test, especially in the US where the Fed is basically printing as much money as almost the entire US GDP... No other country comes anywhere close to that level of policy "support" (or I'd say, desperation).
  • PE
    Paul E.
    27 July 2020 @ 22:13
    This was very good. The section on Sociological Pitfalls and Identity Politics was thought provoking! Thank you.
  • AC
    Aaruran C.
    27 July 2020 @ 22:07
  • Jv
    Juri v.
    27 July 2020 @ 21:39
    Not easy to understand you Michael, microphone most likely and you also a bit too mumbly at times, which is a pity
    • DG
      Dave G.
      27 July 2020 @ 21:46
      For me he's speaking a couple levels above my financial knowlwdge and some of it sounds vague.
  • DS
    David S.
    27 July 2020 @ 21:43
    Serious and excellent presentation. I must focus better and watch again - so much there. Thanks to both of you for your efforts and sharing your opinions. DLS
  • JA
    John A.
    27 July 2020 @ 20:08
    Props to Srini for nailing the danger identity politics present in having bad repercussions with the majority. He really does a good job of describing why our most successful agents of change appeal to our shared identity rather than divide us. I'm also worried about the potential blowback and how it will impact society if it occurs like it has in the past. It really is a major thread of how the next 10 years plays out.
  • JP
    John P.
    27 July 2020 @ 07:21
    Great Interview! One of the key takeaways fo rme was: "Europe is a leveraged bet on EM's" Srinivas Thiruvadanthai Mr Thiruvadanthai's opinion that the EU will fail with regards to the scale of co-ordination needed is telling and Mike Green shared the dire view of EM's. Can anyone tell me if there is a recent RV interview containing positive opinions on the EU & EM outlook? Seems to me all opinions are converging on this area, and the chart of truth for the Covid-19 era may be the EU banks (SX7E)......just waiting for the continuation?!?
    • JS
      Jon S.
      27 July 2020 @ 08:12
      As European, the only narrative I think RV is not catching (but i might be biased because of my own local interests) is the bullish Europe narrative. The European Union is an experiment, but it is not out of the blue; European Union is there to avoid war between the French and the German something it has happened so many times in Europe. Now when one sees Germany and France cooperating it is a turning point in history. Europe was getting to big, but the push back of Turkey with Erdogan and the Brexit are good developments for Europe to focus on the main European countries. I think to see countries leaving the EU is a good sign, as long as the French / German edge remains. I do believe that it is important that the German and French edge show solidarity to the Southern European countries, the Easter europeans and balkans is another story...
    • DR
      David R.
      27 July 2020 @ 10:27
      @Jon, given the belligerence of Pompeo and the US, I've been thinking that the US might be the next battlefield whilst Europe sits unscathed (except Russia), the opposite of WW2. We know how positive that was during /after WW2 for the US economically and how bad it was for Europe. Maybe it'll be the reverse next time? Obviously I hope sane minds prevail, but sadly don't see many in the current US admin.
    • AA
      Andrew A.
      27 July 2020 @ 12:47
      @David, interesting hypothesis but I doubt it's a likely outcome given a conflict. China and Russia don't have anywhere near the required capacity to initiate a trans-oceanic invasion/bombardment to destroy US infrastructure like in 1940s Europe. A more likely outcome is hostilities in the ME, Caucasus and SE Asia. Europe doesn't really have a large enough labour market to rebuild the world in much the same fashion as the Dodge/Marshall plans did.
    • SB
      Stephen B.
      27 July 2020 @ 19:48
      Christophe Ollari (RV July 14) made a case for European equities and the Euro.
  • CB
    Chris B.
    27 July 2020 @ 19:15
    Excellent video - enjoyed both these guys discussion. Particular kudos to Mike Green; excellent questions and interjects intelligent analysis.
  • AD
    Anna D.
    27 July 2020 @ 16:44
    Fascinating conversation!
  • WA
    Wissam A.
    27 July 2020 @ 10:05
    I have a question for both of you Srini and Mike. You two mentioned that US government bonds have lost their ability to act as a shock absorber to a portfolio because the yields are so low therefore price appreciation is capped by the zero bound, therefore that "put" is not as good as it used to be in case of market stress. So if this is the case, what is an appropriate asset that an investor can incorporate in his/her portfolio to barbell against any market shocks? You guys discussed the issue but did not offer any thoughts on how to barbell a portfolio against risky assets. On a different note Mike you briefly mentioned Peter Thiel. Can you interview him for RV subscribers? It would be interesting to see his views on current markets and politics and what he thinks are good investments for the future.
    • JL
      James L.
      27 July 2020 @ 10:18
      I think the prevailing thought is that it is gold.
    • BA
      Bruce A.
      27 July 2020 @ 12:54
      The other barbell might be gold or it might be cash. It might be both but with different weights at different times. I don't know how to discount the probabilities of the myriad pathways that are possible, so I I hold cash, gold and risk assets (but not bonds). We can call it a triangle portfolio. My explanation (below) highlights how I think about different periods over the next 2 years when each might shine: Gold........... while real yields are negative and declining (like now under the 'attempted reflation'). Then cash would be king if we hit a period of declining inflation expectations (or outright deflation). Gold would hold it's own against other assets but cash would be king. I don't know exactly how such a deflation would transpire except perhaps with continuing corporate and private bankruptcies leading to a severe saving bias and another recession...........assuming the current one is over already. After such a deflationary correction and 'reset', then an MMT driven inflation period could take root in earnest. Nominal yields rising strongly but real yields might remain very suppressed, assuming CB's use yield curve control to help 'inflate away' the built up govt debt which arose from the 'automatic stabilisers' and special economic/ social welfare programs. Because it's not totally certain that we have to move through a deflationary crunch, I continue to hold highly liquid equities. Because we might move straight into a Fed/ Treasury spending stagflation, I've started building commodities into the equities portion of the portfolio.
  • JJ
    Joseph J.
    27 July 2020 @ 11:10
    Mike Green is my favorite; always learn stuff from him. Please get him on as often as possible!